in the Upper Delaware River RegionBuilding Resilience

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Opinions differ about the underlying causes of climate change, but the earth’s climate is indeed changing. Residents of the Upper Delaware River region are already experiencing these changes.

This guide addresses the critical need to build local community resilience against the impacts of climate change. Implementing the plan’s recommendations will lead to communities that can better withstand impacts of change upon their natural resources and economies in the decades to come. These are “no regrets” solutions—they are beneficial regardless of what the future brings, but particularly important in the context of a changing climate. The most costly thing we can do is nothing.

Risks n Strategies n

Actions

Resilience: the ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change.

Quality of Life The Upper Delaware River Basin encompasses approximately 4,500 square miles. It is rich in natural resources like clean water, fish and wildlife, abundant public lands and open spaces, and extraordinary recreational opportunities (a significant draw for visitors, residents, and businesses alike). Its outstanding quality of life is intrinsically linked to natural systems that are vulnerable to climate change.

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Delaware River Basin

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A 2012 Technical Report for the Delaware Estuary and Basin summarized climatic trends in the Delaware River Basin, including at a number of sites in the Upper Delaware River region. Both annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation in the Upper Basin have increased significantly over the past 100 years. The trend over the past 30 years is especially dramatic. Future projections show the basin getting progressively warmer and wetter throughout the 21st century. The median projections of 14 climate models for the end of this century show that:

n Temperatures could rise between 3°F and 7°F, with substantially more warming in summer than in winter, resulting in more extreme heat days;

n Precipitation could increase by 7-9%, with more in winter months, and 5-8 more days of heavy precipitation annually;

n The growing season could increase by 15-30 days annually;

n The number of frost days could decrease by 20-40 days annually; and,

n Sea level could rise by 1.5 feet to 5 feet (or more), resulting in larger tidal volumes that bring more salt water up the estuary. Some of that salinity increase could be offset by increases in precipitation, at least during cooler months.

The Big PictureWarmer average global temperatures set off changes on land, in the oceans, and in the atmosphere that can adversely affect our region’s people, plants, and animals. Over the last several decades, the northeastern United States has experienced noticeable changes in its climate.

Since 1970, the average annual temperature rose by 2°F and the average winter temperature increased by 4°F.

Regional Trends Warmer & Wetter

(Above) Looking south down the Delaware River from the Roebling Bridge. (Bottom) Flooding caused by Hurricane Sandy.

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Data Source: NOAA National Climatic Data Center

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The climate risk analysis for the Upper Delaware River region focused on threats to water resources, forests, and economies.

WaterThe Upper Delaware River region is characterized by excellent water quality, resulting from its predominantly forested landscape. Healthy riparian areas and largely intact floodplains sustain high quality fish and aquatic insect popula-tions, as well as an abundance of freshwater mussels, diverse native aquatic plant communities, and spawning habitat for migratory fish, including American shad and American eel. The region is also home to both breeding and winter-ing populations of bald eagles.

Current non-climate water resource stressors include population growth and associated land use changes, competing demands for water, including the diversion of approximately 50 percent of Upper Delaware water to New York City’s municipal water supply system, and flow management policies that result in flow fluctuations, thermal stress to fish, and other ecological impacts. Natural gas drilling could become a stressor to both water quality and quantity in the not-too-distant future.

n Increased streambank erosion from higher stream flows

n Stream flow fluctuations: earlier peak stream flows; higher flows in winter and lower in summer and fall

n More algae growth and lake temperature changes

n Increased impervious surfaces due to development of open space, which reduces aquifer recharge and intensifies stormwater runoff

n Increased evaporation from reservoirs, reducing water storage

n Rising sea levels downriver that put demands on Upper Basin water to mitigate salt water intrusion

Pollution and warm water temperatures contribute to algae blooms.

Dead didymo, or “rock snot.”

Floods often damage streambanks, which will continue to erode and deposit sediment into the stream if not properly restored.

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Risks Water & Forests

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n Loss of water purification, flood control, and air quality benefits provided by healthy forests

n Reduced winter deer mortality and higher deer populations that hinder natural regeneration of trees

n Changes in forest species composition

n Shifts and loss of bird and wildlife habitat, migratory corridors, and breeding areas

n Longer fire season and increased wildfire risks

n Tree mortality resulting from extreme weather events

ForestsForests account for about 75% of the region’s land cover, supporting generally excellent water quality and providing drinking water for 16 million people in four states, including urban populations of New York City, Trenton, and Philadelphia.

Forests in the northeast region already face many challenges, including changing land uses—development, parcelization, and fragmentation; invasive insects, plants, and diseases; and wildfire risk. Such challenges are expected to be exacerbated by climate change.

Cerulean warblers (left) are already declining, and the mature

hardwood forests where they breed are predicted to diminish due

to climate change.

Ecosystem impacts from extensive hemlock die-off due to the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid (inset) include higher soil and stream temperatures, accelerated nitrate runoff, increased soil erosion and water pollution, and changes in plant species distributions.

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Old-growth forest within the Alan Seeger Natural Area of Rothrock State Forest.

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US Highways 6 & 209 flooded by the Delaware River at Westfall Township, PA.

Risks Government & PlanninG

Community Planning ChallengesThe climate-related changes occurring now and projected for the future could alter the region’s economy, landscape, and quality of life. The Upper Delaware River region includes three of the fastest growing counties in Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey. Population increases may be hastened by people relocating from more vulnerable urban and coastal areas. Such growth would result in more development pressure and, absent efforts to address them, added forest loss, fragmentation, and impervious surfaces, all of which affect water quality. Population increases also amplify demand for water and other resources, which adds further to non-climate and climate-related stressors. These are all issues that are already of importance to communities in the region.

n More extreme precipitation events are likely to cause flooding, increased stormwater runoff, and damage to private residences and infrastructure.

n The frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves are expected to increase, impacting vulnerable populations.

n Shifts in local and regional water cycles, earlier spring melt, longer periods of low stream flows, and increased surface water temperatures are patterns expected to continue.

n Warmer temperatures will likely reduce cold-water fishery habitats, impacting the region’s recreational and sport fisheries. Fluctuations in stream flow levels can affect fisheries as well as recreational boating.

n Seasonal drought risk will increase.

Residential development often replaces forests or farmland with impervious surfaces.

Impervious surfaces increase storm-water runoff.

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Vulnerable DamsDams and spillways will be subjected to added pressure from extreme precipitation events and higher winter and spring flows from increased rain-on-snow events. This is a major financial and public safety challenge for the land and reservoir-rich Upper Delaware River region.

There are almost 150 high hazard dams in the Upper Delaware River region — not counting the next most threatened category of dams, considered “sig-nificant” hazards. Ensuring the stability of these structures in changing future conditions is essential to preventing loss of life and damage to other infrastructure in communities near dams.

Swollen, sediment-filled Delaware River near the Pike-Sussex County line after heavy rain and rapid snowmelt.

Bridge washout in New York due to floods from Hurricane Irene.

Observed upward trends in extreme storm frequency from 1948-2011. These storms are also increasing in intensity.

Extreme storm trends

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Landowner LossesDecreased winter snow pack could reduce the timeframe available for winter timber harvests, which typically utilize snow-covered soils to reduce soil compaction and erosion of haul roads and skid trails. This could be a deterrent for landowners who harvest trees to supplement incomes or implement management practices aimed at improving forest health and species diversity.

Spread of invasive species increases management costs to landowners and will result in an overall loss of biodiversity and function of forest ecosystems.

Streambank erosion and stream channel changes put streamside properties at risk where riparian forests have been compromised. The flooding that often follows heavy rainfall events may overwhelm sewage infrastructure and cause discharge of raw or undertreated sewage to waterways.

Impacts to FisheriesThe future of native trout is dim, with predicted wild trout losses of 53% to 97% in the Appalachian Mountains. Brook trout, the only species of trout native to the eastern US, are extremely vulnerable to climate change.

The single most important factor affecting brook trout is water tem-perature. They thrive in temperatures up to 65 degrees Fahrenheit and will die within a few hours when water reaches 75 degrees Fahrenheit.

As the state fish of PA, NJ, and NY, brook trout are a regional icon and serve as a key indicator of water quality.

Japanese Knotweed (Top and center) is an extremely invasive species that encourages erosion along streams.

Brook trout (Bottom)

High winds can damage valuable timber stands.

Mean daily water temperature (ºC) values for the Delaware River at Callicoon, NY from October 1974 to September 2008, compared to the PA Chapter 93 criterion for Cold Water Fishes.

Risks PeoPle & the economy

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Rural communities have particular geographic and demographic challenges in responding to climate change risks. Physical isolation of some populations, limited access to health care facilities, aging or remote transportation and communications systems and infrastructure, and an aging population all contribute to the vulnerability of rural communities. In addition, rural governments may

have limited financial resources and emergency response systems avail-able for responding to climate risks.

Because of its effects on the water cycle and on the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, climate change has the potential to wreak havoc on farms and agricul-tural businesses in the region.

Rural EconomiesThe natural resources of the Upper Delaware River region are essential to its economic viability. There is a growing understanding of the value of the economic benefits people obtain from nature, the real cost in dollar value of losing those benefits through environmental degradation, and the long-term investment value of conserving key natural systems.

Extreme weather can severely damage infrastructure. Culverts that were not adequately sized to accommodate high flows can be overwhelmed and wash out roads. Electricity infrastructure is particu-larly susceptible to damage from storms.

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Tracks of the Metro-North Port Jervis Line damaged by flooding from the nearby Ramapo River during Hurricane Irene.

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Small Businesses SufferSmall businesses have unique vulnerabilities to climate change. In addition to the direct risks of destructive events such as hurricanes, intense downpours and flooding, extreme heat, and wildfires, small businesses are also vulnerable to indirect effects of extreme weather. Power outages, road closures, telecommunications failures, loss of water supply, rising insurance costs, supply chain disruptions, and employee absences can strain small businesses.

An estimated 40% of small businesses experiencing long-term power outages from extreme weather events close permanently due to physical losses in perishable inventory and lost revenue. Small businesses often lack the resources that make larger companies more resilient during extreme weather events.

Flood impact (Top) Rising flood waters devastate a main street. (Center) Recreation is an important part of the regional economy. (Bottom) Invasive algae negatively impacts fisheries.

Decreased Tourism and RecreationThe impacts of climate change on the region’s tourism and recreation industry could be significant. Declining fish populations, algal blooms, and low summer stream flows are problematic for water-based recreation. Warmer winters will shorten the region’s ski and snowboard season and are already increasing the need for artificial snowmaking. Businesses associated with the tourism industry, such as fishing guides, hotels, liveries, outdoor outfitters, realtors, restaurants, and ski resorts, comprise 20 to 30% of private sector jobs in the region.

Tourism and related businesses are particularly vulnerable to economic losses resulting from weather disruptions. Interrupted travel plans, cancelled events or reservations, and losses associated with power outages can have significant negative financial impacts.

the median cost of downtime for small businesses from an extreme weather event is estimated at $3,000 per day.

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Risks PeoPle & the economy

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Regional WeatheR health outcomes

Heat stress and stroke

Injury, illness, death

Asthma and respiratory disease

Malnutrition, starvation

Mental illness

Asthma; respiratory, heart, and lung disease; cancer

Malaria, Lyme disease, encephalitis, hantavirus

Cholera, cryptosporidiosis, salmonella

Flood Destruction

Scarcities in food and water

Pollutants and allergens

Mosquitos, ticks, fleas, rodents

Water- and food-borne diseases

extreme Weather events

changes in temperature

and Precipitation

Heat waves

Hurricanes

Severe drought

Air pollution

Disease carriers

Contaminants

Mold and mildewContaminated food and waterLack of shelter

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How Can Climate Change Harm the Public’s Health?

Human HealthIn 2007 the American Public Health Association (APHA) declared climate change to be “one of the most serious health threats facing our nation.” Yet, they note in their climate change blueprint for the public health community that “few Americans, however, are aware of the very real consequences for our communities, our families and our children.”

n Heat waves can inflict substantial harm on sensitive human populations including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

n Rising temperatures, warmer winters, and extended growing seasons have lengthened pollen seasons and increased growth of toxic plants such as poison ivy, creating risks for people with allergies and respiratory disease.

n Warmer winter temperatures have contributed to the expansion of the range of disease-carrying insects, such as ticks that spread Lyme disease and mosquitoes that spread diseases including West Nile virus. The incidence of Lyme disease increased about 80% in the United States from 1993 to 2007, especially in northern states previously thought too cold to support the ticks that spread the disease.

Increasing health issues (Top) Asian tiger mosquito. (Bottom) Ragweed pollen. (Left) Adult deer tick.

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James Gathany, CDC

Source: United States Global Chance Research Program. Climate Change Impacts. 2009

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Build ResilienceLocal governments are on the front lines of managing the impacts associated with natural hazards. As problems such as increased flooding, extreme heat, drought, and other major weather events become more frequent, local budgets and infrastructure will be strained, putting more people and property at risk. We can build climate resilience in local communities through effective adaptation strategies that sustain forest and water resources and promote economic stability.

Focus on “No Regrets” ActionsWhile we cannot know the exact course of climate change, the Upper Delaware River region can:

n Make adaptation to climate change an integral part of existing planning efforts

n Keep people safer by strengthening disaster preparedness

n Reduce risks, protect assets, and save money

n Safeguard the forest and water resources that support our economy

Reducing vulnerability

and building resilience

increases the capacity

for systems to withstand

change and still retain

their vital characteristics.

Strategies and Solutions What can We Do?

Streambank restoration, such as this bank stabilization project in Bethel, VT following Hurricane Irene, is one way to prevent further erosion and protect fish habitat after floods.

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Opportunities for Local GovernmentsRisks to forests, waters, and economies could be reduced by implementing land use policies that focus on maintaining existing forest cover, reducing forest fragmentation, keeping impervious cover at reasonable levels, and taking full advantage of the ecosystem services provided by floodplains and riparian corridors. Local governments in the region have primary responsibility for the land use decisions that can ultimately make communities less vulnerable and more economically resilient to environmental changes. Although it is a challenge to coordinate land use policy in a region that includes three states, seven counties, and hundreds of municipalities, this strategy has great potential for far-reaching climate resiliency benefits.

n Work with forest landowners and forestry professionals to implement forest management practices that improve forest health and diversity

n Support forest-dependent industries including travel, tourism, and recreation as well as the forest products and services sectors

n Improve tax incentives to recognize the many values of forest lands and to help landowners keep forests as forests

n Engage the basin’s water users in investing in source water protection and land and water resources conservation in the Upper Basin

n Improve floodplain and stormwater management standards to reduce risks to people, property, and infrastructure

n Leverage cooperative conservation efforts already underway in the region and use available funding strategically to conserve priority landscapes

More specific objectives, strategies, and actions are detailed in the Climate Adaptation Action Plan available for download at www.pinchot.org/adapt

FEMA floodplain maps are one way to reduce risks to a community, but other steps can be taken to better manage floodplains.

Manage deer populations proactively to promote healthy forest ecosystems and to stay ahead of any population increases associated with changing climate conditions.

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Functional floodplains can reduce the height of floods further downstream.

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n Build the capacity —both human and financial—necessary to implement the Climate Adaptation Action Plan for the Upper Delaware River region

n Generate active dialogue and information exchange about climate change by educating and engaging the public, media, and local officials on region-specific climate change risks and opportunities

n Conserve the current 75% forest land cover to protect water quality and quantity and enhance climate resiliency

n Maintain and improve ecological health and sustainability of forests

n Enhance financial investment in Upper Basin forest management and land conservation through engagement with key stakeholder groups

n Reduce the impacts of flooding and stormwater runoff from extreme storm events on people, property, and infrastructure

n Support, mitigate impacts to, and enhance the region’s agriculture, tourism, and recreation industries while identifying and capitalizing on new economic opportunities presented by a changing climate

n Promote basin-wide flow man-agement policies that will ensure sufficient water quantity for both human and ecological needs

The Climate Adaptation Action Planthe Path aheaD

The Climate Adaptation Action Plan, included in Adapting to a Changing Climate: Risks & Opportunities for the Upper Delaware River Region, maps out a set of goals, objectives, strategies, and actions to be accomplished over the short- and long-term. The adaptation goals and action plan details were chosen to advance the region toward climate solutions. The plan has clear benefits, not just for climate resilience, but also for addressing existing stressors.

Goals

www.pinchot.org/adapt

Wetlands are critically important for holding and filtering runoff from heavy rains.

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Moving ForwardTranslating this plan to action represents a real opportunity for the people and governing bodies of the region to prepare for a “new normal” set of environmental conditions while supporting those efforts already underway. The outcome will be a solid foundation for lasting prosperity, improving the lives of the people who live here and the experience of visitors, strengthening the economy, and maintaining the health of the natural systems that sustain us—both now and for future generations.

It is our hope that local government officials will use the full Climate Adaption Action Plan to find resources and tools to help build resilience to climate variability and climate-related disasters.

Fritz Run, seen here on State Game Land 127 in Monroe County, PA is a small, tannin-rich stream that drains several large wetlands before emptying into the Lehigh River.

Spring-fed pond in McMichael Creek Greenway, Monroe County, PA. Found just below the summit of Godfrey Ridge, the pond is the headwaters of an unnamed stream.

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Dave M

enke, US Fish and Wildlife Service

Choices about land-use and land-cover patterns have affected and will continue to affect how vulnerable or resilient human communities and ecosystems are to the effects of climate change.

– National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee, Draft National Climate Assessment, January 2013

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In accordance with Federal law and US Department of Agriculture policy, the Pinchot Institute does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, age, or disability.

To file a complaint of discrimination: write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C. 20250-9410 or call (202)720-5964 (voice and TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.

Cover photo: Dorene Warner, WDesignGroup.com

© 2015 Pinchot Institute for Conservation

In 2013, the Model Forest Policy Program (MFPP), the Cumberland River Compact, Headwaters Economics, the Common Waters Partnership, and the Pinchot Institute for Conservation came together to create a climate adaptation plan for the communities of the Upper Delaware River region through a program called Climate Solutions University. The resulting publication, Adapting to a Changing Climate: Risks & Opportunities for the Upper Delaware River Region, identifies areas where the region may be vulnerable to the effects of climate change and suggests adaptation strategies to address those impacts that cannot be prevented.

Join Us!Common Waters is a regional partnership of public and non-profit organizations and agencies focused on supporting the development of sustainable communities and working landscapes in the Delaware River watershed upstream of the Delaware Water Gap. The long-standing working relationships that these organizations have with landowners, governmental and non-governmental agencies, researchers, policymakers, and the public positions them well to engage diverse stakeholders in seeking innovative, practical, and broadly supported solutions to conservation challenges such as climate change. The Common Waters Partnership is facilitated by the Pinchot Institute for Conservation.

www.commonwatersfund.org

Pinchot Institute for Conservation 1616 P Street NW, Suite 100 Washington, DC 20036

(570) 431-9757 commonwaters@pinchot.org

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