brookings institution from saving to spending · 3/1/2019  · 6 0.6% 20.0% 34.2% 41.2% 48.1% 0%...

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Discussant: Michael L. Davis, Head of DC Specialists T. Rowe Price, Inc. FROM SAVING TO SPENDING Brookings Institution

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Page 1: Brookings Institution FROM SAVING TO SPENDING · 3/1/2019  · 6 0.6% 20.0% 34.2% 41.2% 48.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Scaled very low earnings Scaled low earnings

Discussant:

Michael L. Davis, Head of DC Specialists

T. Rowe Price, Inc.

FROM SAVING TO SPENDING

Brookings Institution

Page 2: Brookings Institution FROM SAVING TO SPENDING · 3/1/2019  · 6 0.6% 20.0% 34.2% 41.2% 48.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Scaled very low earnings Scaled low earnings

We believe Americans have the

right to choose how to create

the necessary income from

their lifetime of savings to fund

their consumption needs in

retirement.

Page 3: Brookings Institution FROM SAVING TO SPENDING · 3/1/2019  · 6 0.6% 20.0% 34.2% 41.2% 48.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Scaled very low earnings Scaled low earnings

3

From Saving to Spending

▪ We advocate for a diversity of solutions to address retirement

income needs.

▪ We are encouraged by the development of innovative ideas

and by the thoughtful consideration of compelling international

models.

▪ As the primary delivery mechanism of retirement benefits to

American workers, we believe the employer-sponsored

retirement plan system should be a focus for innovative

retirement income strategies.

HIGHLIGHTS

Page 4: Brookings Institution FROM SAVING TO SPENDING · 3/1/2019  · 6 0.6% 20.0% 34.2% 41.2% 48.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Scaled very low earnings Scaled low earnings

4

Retirees more likely to leave money in DC plans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

First YearLeft in Plan

Second YearLeft in Plan

Third YearLeft in Plan

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

1Percent of account value retained by defined contribution (DC) plan participants, age 65 or older after 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 calendar years following separation from service.2Health and Retirement Study (HRS Core) public use data set. Produced and distributed by the University of Michigan with funding from the National Institute on Aging (grant number NIA U01AG009740). Ann Arbor, MI, 2014

and 2016.

T. ROWE PRICE DATA

DC ASSETS RETAINED, SEPARATED AGE 65+1

Both proprietary and national data suggest retirees are more likely to keep DC plan balances.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ages 60–64Left in Plan

Ages 65–69Left in Plan

Ages 70–74Left in Plan

2012 2016

HEALTH AND RETIREMENT STUDY (HRS)

RESPONDENTS WHO LEFT MONEY IN PLAN2

Page 5: Brookings Institution FROM SAVING TO SPENDING · 3/1/2019  · 6 0.6% 20.0% 34.2% 41.2% 48.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Scaled very low earnings Scaled low earnings

5

Plan sponsor preference by plan size

1Results from 88 respondents.2Results from 102 respondents.

PLAN SPONSORS: WHEN YOUR EMPLOYEES RETIRE, WHAT WOULD YOUR ORGANIZATION

PREFER THAT THEY DO WITH THEIR DC PLAN BALANCES?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Sponsors of Plans With Assets >$500M1

Perc

en

t o

f P

lan

Sp

on

so

rs

5.9%

Sponsors of Plans With Assets <$500M2

Prefer participants

retain their DC balances

Prefer participants

move their DC balances

No clear

preference

Reconsidering

our position

50.0%

5.7%

38.6%

5.7%

30.4%28.4%

35.3%

Page 6: Brookings Institution FROM SAVING TO SPENDING · 3/1/2019  · 6 0.6% 20.0% 34.2% 41.2% 48.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Scaled very low earnings Scaled low earnings

6

0.6%

20.0%

34.2%41.2%

48.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Scaled very low earnings Scaled low earnings Scaled medium earnings Scaled high earnings Steady maximum earnings

Career average earnings by quintile

Social Security replacement rate Gap, assuming 75% replacement target

surplus

Clingman, M., Burkhalter, K. and Chaplain, C. (June 2018), Replacement Rates for Hypothetical Retired Workers. Actuarial Note 2018.9. Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary.

On the Web at: ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/ran9/an2018-9.pdf.

75%

replacement

target

Rep

lacem

en

t ra

tes f

or

hyp

oth

eti

ca

l re

tire

d w

ork

ers

in f

irst

ye

ar

at

No

rma

l R

eti

rem

en

t A

ge

Social Security replacement rate Gap, assuming 75% replacement target

Social Security replacement rates and implied gaps by

income quintile, 2019

Page 7: Brookings Institution FROM SAVING TO SPENDING · 3/1/2019  · 6 0.6% 20.0% 34.2% 41.2% 48.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Scaled very low earnings Scaled low earnings

7

Demographics

▪ Age

▪ Mortality

▪ Salary

▪ Savings Rate

Individual

Preferences

▪ Risk Aversion

▪ Investment

Objective

▪ Time Horizon

Matching personal preferences to income characteristics

Investment

Management

▪ Capture Returns

▪ Lower Risk

Objectives

Retirement

Income

INCOME PREFERENCES

Inflation Protection

Timing of

Income

Income

Volatility

Bequest

Liquidity

Portability

Page 8: Brookings Institution FROM SAVING TO SPENDING · 3/1/2019  · 6 0.6% 20.0% 34.2% 41.2% 48.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Scaled very low earnings Scaled low earnings

8

No silver bullet

NO SINGLE INVESTMENT SOLUTION CAN FULLY ADDRESS THE DIVERSITY AND

COMPLEXITY OF RETIREMENT INCOME NEEDS.

Systematic

Withdrawals

Bond Ladder/

Target Maturity

Managed

Payout

Managed Acct.

Services

Immediate

Annuities and

QLACs

Stable Value

Unique to DC plans and can play an important role for in-plan retirees

implementing a DIY (or partial DIY) income strategy

Tontine

▪ Allows for precise

targeting of income

without an insurance

component

▪ Uses existing

plan investments▪ Integrated

within TDF or

standalone ▪ Provider selection

▪ Participants must

provide accurate

household financial

information

▪ Directly addresses

longevity risk

▪ Generally

irrevocable

Page 9: Brookings Institution FROM SAVING TO SPENDING · 3/1/2019  · 6 0.6% 20.0% 34.2% 41.2% 48.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Scaled very low earnings Scaled low earnings

THOUGHTS AND

CONSTRUCTIVE

QUESTIONS

Page 10: Brookings Institution FROM SAVING TO SPENDING · 3/1/2019  · 6 0.6% 20.0% 34.2% 41.2% 48.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Scaled very low earnings Scaled low earnings

10

Important information

T. Rowe Price’s survey was sponsored by Pension & Investments (P&I) and conducted during September and October 2018 by Signet Research, a marketing research firm. The survey universe is a list

of plan sponsors and consultants selected from the P&I database. Responses were received from 210 plan sponsor officials. Not all survey respondents completed all survey questions. Respondents

participated via online surveys and were offered a chance to win prize awards as incentives for their participation. T. Rowe Price designed the survey questions and is solely responsible for the

interpretation of the results.

This material is provided for general and educational purposes only and is not intended to provide legal, tax, or investment advice. This material does not provide fiduciary recommendations concerning

investments or investment management; it is not individualized to the needs of any specific benefit plan or retirement investor, nor is it directed to any recipient in connection with a specific investment or

investment management decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies, including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc., and/or its affiliates, receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and

services. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the amount

invested.

The material does not constitute a distribution, an offer, an invitation, a personal or general recommendation, or a solicitation to sell or buy any securities in any jurisdiction or to conduct any particular

investment activity. The material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources’ accuracy or completeness. There is no

guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of the date noted on the material and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of

other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.

The material is not intended for use by persons in jurisdictions that prohibit or restrict the distribution of the material, and in certain countries the material is provided upon specific request.

The views contained herein are as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price associates. Unless indicated

otherwise, the source of all market data is T. Rowe Price.

Information and opinions, including forecasts and forward-looking statements, are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed to be reliable; the accuracy of those sources is not

guaranteed, and actual results may differ materially from expectations.

© 2019 T. Rowe Price. All rights reserved. T. ROWE PRICE, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE, and the bighorn sheep design are, collectively and/or apart, trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.

T. Rowe Price Investment Services, Inc.

Page 11: Brookings Institution FROM SAVING TO SPENDING · 3/1/2019  · 6 0.6% 20.0% 34.2% 41.2% 48.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Scaled very low earnings Scaled low earnings

THANK YOU

C3TCDWSAZ_Brookings

201904-808589