brent spot price - iumi · policy wordings • full value declaration – new for old • lopi –...
TRANSCRIPT
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BRENT SPOT PRICE
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9003
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1997
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7/19
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US$
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Offshore Drilling Rigs
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KatrinaKatrina’’s wraths wrath
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Initial Yielding of K-Braces
Outer K-BracesBegin to Fail
K-Braces AlongLower Bay Fail
& Jacket Collapses
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84
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
78 93 97
HildaHildaFailuresFailures
CamilleCamilleFailuresFailures
JuanJuanFailuresFailures(sudden(sudden
hurricane)hurricane)
AndrewAndrewFailuresFailures
RP 2ARP 2A11stst Ed.Ed.
QualityQualityJointJoint
EquationsEquations
ModernModernDesignDesignCodeCode
OperatorOperatorSpecificSpecificCriteriaCriteria
25yr to 100yr25yr to 100yrreturn periodsreturn periods
ReassessmentReassessmentActivities (AIM)Activities (AIM)
UpdatedUpdatedWaveWaveRecipeRecipe
PlatformPlatformAssessmentAssessment
MMSMMSInspectionInspectionProgramProgram
PrePre--RP2ARP2A
9189‘4848
EarlyEarly--RP2ARP2A ModernModern--RP2ARP2A
2000
64 69
RP 2ARP 2A99thth Ed.Ed.
RP 2ARP 2A1919thth Ed.Ed.
RP 2ARP 2A2020thth Ed.Ed.
RP 2ARP 2ASect. 17Sect. 17
RP 2ARP 2A2121stst Ed.Ed.
ConsequenceConsequenceBasedBasedDesignDesign
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KatrinaKatrinaFailuresFailures
IvanIvanFailuresFailures
LiliLiliFailuresFailures
02
API SIMAPI SIMTask GroupTask Group
HurricanesHurricanes
IndustryIndustrystandardsstandards
IndustryIndustrypracticepractice
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‘64 ‘69 ‘84 ‘92
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
‘78 ‘93 ‘97
HildaFailures
CamilleFailures
JuanFailures
(manned)
AndrewFailures
API RP 2A20th Edition
API RP 2A1st Edition
API RP 2A9th Edition
API RP 2A19th Edition
API RP 2ASupplement 1
Section 17
25-year to 100-yearCriteria ?
QualityJoint
Equations
ModernDesignCode
ReassessmentActivities
(AIM)
UpdatedWave Load
Recipe
ExistingPlatform
Assessment
MMSInspectionProgramBegins
Pre-RP 2A Early-RP 2A Modern-RP 2A
‘91‘89
‘‘8282‘‘7272‘‘4848
Inadequate deck elevation
Deeper Water Platforms (>100’)
Incomplete CP history
HurricanesHurricanes
IndustryIndustrystandardsstandards
DesignDesignpracticepractice
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Design Wave 72 ft
(API RP2A )
Hurricane IvanHurricane Ivan
Normal sea level
Topsides
Jacket
Ivan 105 ft Katrina 100 ft
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P36 at 08.11 a.m. on 15 March 2001
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P36 at 11.24 a.m. on 18 March 2001
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Loss of P36 at 11.41 a.m. on 20 March 2001
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THE LOSS OF PETROBRAS P-36 - 20 March 2001
Operating Faults Identified by the Commission and Petrobras
1. Failure to blank off inlet to Emergency Drain Tank2. Closing of EDT atmospheric vent3. Opening of wrong valve for drain tank emptying4. Delay in operating drain tank pump5. Modification to stop ventilation dampers closing6. Opening watertight compartments without contingency7. Removal of all fire fighting pump contingency8. Inadequate or non-existent training of operating staff
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OFFSHORE INDUSTRY CHANGES AFFECTING RISK OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS
OIL COMPANIES HAVE:
1. Ceased use of customised in-house specifications2. Reduced technical support staff3. Reduced internal technical development4. Concentrated on short term shareholder return5. Reduced in-house recruitment and training6. Increased contractor’s financial and technical risk7. Faced more competition from Government owned oil companies8. Accepted more local involvement in their developments9. Rapidly moved into deep and ultra deep production areas10. Rapidly increased their dependence on floating and sub-sea technology
CONTRACTORS HAVE:
1. Reduced technical support staff2. Reduced internal technical development3. Concentrated on short term shareholder return 4. Reduced in-house recruitment and training5. Accepted greater financial and technical risk6. Been forced to accept local partners7. Been forced to purchase local supplies8. Accepted risk of extending capability on projects9. Many projects are now prototype developments
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RESULTS OF OFFSHORE INDUSTRY CHANGES OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS
1. Low margins have reduced investment in technology2. Independent checking and inspection reduced3. Technical standards have been lowered to achieve economy4. Material quality is often compromised by local supply5. Generation gap has developed throughout industry6. Rapid offshore expansion has exacerbated staff shortages 7. Local operating crews have less training and experience8. Mature fields are being taken over by Independents9. Many new geographic areas have started development10. Large step changes in technical development in deepwater11. New contractors and concepts have entered industry12. Major contractors are becoming more risk averse13. Adversarial roles have returned to contracting14. Insurance is becoming the technical safety net
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Policy WordingsPolicy Wordings
•• Full value declaration Full value declaration –– New for oldNew for old•• LOPI LOPI –– ALOPALOP•• Physical DamagePhysical Damage•• Faulty DesignFaulty Design•• Etc Etc etcetc