Oil Industry Investor AnalysisComparison of BP, Exxon and the industry

1 Overview of Industry

2005 – 2009 Performance

2010-2011 Performance Forecasts

Investor Scorecard and Recommendation

Agenda

2

3

4

3

4

Miles

0 10 20

ANWR

Cannin

g Riv

er

Col

ville

Riv

er

LJL (April, 1997)

Sourdough

Flaxman

BPXA (Op)100%

Milne Point

Greater Prudhoe Bay

AlpineCPAI (Op) 78%Anadarko 22%

EndicottBPXA (Op) 68%Exxon Mobil 21%Unocal 11%

Greater KuparukCPAI (Op) 55%BPXA 39%Unocal 5%

Exxon Mobil 37%CPAI 37%BPXA (Op) 26%

2

3

4

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1

United S

tates

NorthstarBPXA (Op)98%Murphy 2%

Liberty

NPRA

Pt ThomsonExxon Mobil (Op)

36%BPXA

32%Chevron

25%CPAI

5%

Anchorage

BPXA (Op)100%

Badami

North Slope

Alaska North Slope – Units and Oil Field Boundaries

5

Gulf of Mexico – Horn Mountain / Marlin

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

XOI DJICompany

Market Cap (US$ billions)

Exxon Mobil Corporation

337,077

PetroChina Company

233,882

Royal Dutch Shell PLC

196,075

Chevron Corporation

170,639

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.

141,745

OAO Gasprom

133,134

BP PLC 125,937

2005-2009 Weekly Market Performance for Dow Jones and Major Oil Index

Competitive Advantage Differences

• Focus is on ownership of oil rights and oil assets

• Limited operational exposure• Tight cash management policies• Disciplined approach to investments• Culture – profit driven, standardized,

top down management

• More exposure to operational roles within partnerships which increases risk

• Accounts payable terms ~35 days• Investments based on

opportunity• Culture – consensus driven focus

Gross Margin

2005 2006 2007 2008 20090.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0% 42.8%43.8%

42.8%

39.8% 40.2%

31.6%33.5% 32.7%

31.1%29.0%

25.0%23.1% 22.8%

20.0%

24.0%ExxonExxon AdjBP

2005 2006 2007 2008 20090.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

9.7%

10.5% 10.3%9.8%

6.3%

9.2%

8.1%

7.3%

5.9%

6.8%

Exxon

BP

Profit Margin

Historical Stock Price Chart

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-70%

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

BP

Exxon

The Spill“The way that they are selling assets and strengthening their balance, is what you would expect them to do if they were preparing for a worse scenario such as a finding of gross negligence,"

December 1st 2010Anonymous analyst (Did not want to be seen questioning BP's public comments)

“As we believe the true liability for the Macondo accident to be nearer $25-30 billion as opposed to the around $60 billion the market is discounting.”

November 10th, 2010Richard Griffith Evolution Securities Buy recommendation

2009-2011 Gross Margins

• Crude Oil prices up $85.17 vs $78.8 or 8.1% in 2011 (US Energy Dept Fcst 11/9/10)

• 1.7% increase in World Wide consumption in 2011 (US EIA Nov-10)

2009 2010 20110.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0% 40.2% 38.9% 38.4%

29.0% 29.4% 28.9%

24.0%

4.4%

20.2%ExxonExxon AdjBP

2009 – 2011 Profit Margin

• $40B spill reserve; $30B reimbursements

2009 2010 2011-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%6.3%

7.6% 7.6%

6.8%

-4.0%

5.8%

Exxon

BP

Conclusion – Investor Scorecard

Risk Current Stock Price

Forecasted Price

ROA2011

Profit Margin

2011

Investments Oil Reserves

Gas Reserves

Med 43.27 47-57 7.4% 5.83% $18B/yr 5,658BB 40,388BCF

Low 71.85 79-87 9.9% 7.57% $25-$30B/2yr 9,215BB 34,442BCF