boeing future airplanes sugar phase i final review v5

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Boeing Research & Technology

April 20, 2010

NASA N+3 Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research Marty Bradley SUGAR Principal Investigator Boeing Research & Technology Final Review marty.k.bradley@boeing.comChris Droney BR&T Deputy Dave Paisley BCA Deputy Bryce Roth & Srini Gowda General Electric Michelle Kirby Georgia Tech1

BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company. Copyright 2010 Boeing. All rights reserved.

SUGAR Phase 1 Final ReviewBCA Advanced Concepts BR&T Platform Performance Technology

Task Flow & Schedule 8:00 Future Scenario, Concepts, & Technologies from the 6-Month Review Concept Performance and Sizing from 12-Month Review Technology Activities Risk Assessment / Rankings / Roadmaps

Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations Lunch Proprietary Session InitialTechnology Selection Advanced Concepts Concept Conclusions Recommendations Technology Rankings Technology RisksCopyright 2010 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Technology Conclusions Technology Roadmaps2

SUGAR Phase 1 Final ReviewBCA Advanced Concepts BR&T Platform Performance Technology

Task Flow & Schedule 8:00 Future Scenario, Concepts, & Technologies from the 6-Month Review Concept Performance and Sizing from 12-Month Review Technology Activities Risk Assessment / Rankings / Roadmaps

Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations Lunch Proprietary Session InitialTechnology Selection Advanced Concepts Concept Conclusions Recommendations Technology Rankings Technology RisksCopyright 2010 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Technology Conclusions Technology Roadmaps3

SUGAR Study - Task Flow ChartBCA Advanced Concepts BR&T Platform Performance TechnologyPhase 1 Task Flow Task 1 Identify Future Scenario Task 2 Develop Advanced Vehicle Concepts Establish Missions and Reference Configurations Identify Advanced Vehicle Concepts Identify Suites of Advanced Technologies Analysis and Sizing of Advanced Concepts Noise Emissions Performance Fuel Burn Field Length Task 3 Assess Technology Risk and Generate Technology Roadmaps Concept & Technology Risk Analysis Develop Technology Roadmaps Task 4 Reporting Phase 1 Report Future Scenario Definition Advanced Vehicle Concepts Enabling Technologies and Roadmaps

Phase 2 Proposal

Complete Study structured to provide data to make good technology decisions

Copyright 2010 Boeing. All rights reserved.

4

Phase 1 SUGAR Project Is CompleteID 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 37 38 39 40 41 Task Name

BCA Advanced ConceptsTask 1-Develop Future Scenario Develop 1st Draft Refinement Task 2 - Develop Adv. Vehicle Concepts Establish Reference Configuration Vehicles Establish Reference Missions Workshop Preparation Concept Workshop Identify Advanced Vehicle Concepts Identify Suites of Advanced Technologies Propulsion Technologies Aircraft Technologies Analysis and Sizing of Concepts 2008 Baseline (SUGAR Free) 2030 Reference (Refined SUGAR) Advanced Concept 1 (SUGAR High) Advanced Concept 2 (SUGAR Volt) Advanced Concept 3 (SUGAR Ray) Task 3 - Technology Planning Workshop Preparation Technology Planning Workshop Assess Technology Risk Generate Tech. Roadmaps Task 4 - Coordination, Management, and Reporting Coordination and Management Contract Start Kick-Off Meeting 6-Month Review 12-Month Review Final Review Quarterly Reports Trade Studies and Analysis Report Technical Risk Assessment Reports Advanced Concepts ConfigurationCopyright 2010 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Oct

Nov

Dec

2009 Jan Feb

2010 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Performance Technology BR&T Platform Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

Mar

Apr

May

02-04

11-10

10-01 11-12 03-26 04-20 12-23 12-23 01-29

Final Report Preparation Final Report Delivered

503-31

SUGAR Phase 1 Final ReviewBCA Advanced Concepts BR&T Platform Performance Technology

Task Flow & Schedule 8:05 Future Scenario, Concepts, & Technologies from the 6-Month Review Concept Performance and Sizing from 12-Month Review Technology Activities Risk Assessment / Rankings / Roadmaps

Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations Lunch Proprietary Session InitialTechnology Selection Advanced Concepts Concept Conclusions Recommendations Technology Rankings Technology RisksCopyright 2010 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Technology Conclusions Technology Roadmaps6

Current Market Outlook (CMO) Annually Since 1964 For over 40 years, Boeing has published its 20-year forecast of the world demand for air travel and commercial airplanes The Outlook has been shared thousands of times with airlines, journalists, bankers, investment analysts, governments, suppliers, and educators The Boeing Current Market Outlook is the only complete forecast that combines top-down and bottom-up analysis All jets 30 seats and over Freighters All regions of world Scheduled and Nonscheduled flying7COPYRIGHT 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY

Future Scenario

CMO Process Outline-Liberalization-

Traffic Forecast

-Environment-

GDP Growth & World Trade ASM Forecast Regional Flows Share Allocation by Airline-Business Models-

-Geopolitics-Fuel Price-

Top-Down

-Travel Spend-OAG-Non Scheduled-Market Share-

-Growth Rates-

ASMs by Airline by Flow

Service Forecast

-Airline Strategies-OAG-Non Scheduled-Known Plans-

Service Forecast By Airline

Traffic Forecast ASMs = Service Forecast ASMs?

-Product Scenario-

Product Forecast

Bottom-Up

-Airplane Characteristics-

Service Forecast ASMs = Airline ASMs?

Fleet Forecast By Airline-Firm Orders-Retirements-Known Plans-

-Utilization-Current Fleet-

8COPYRIGHT 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY

2010-2030 forecast: strong long-term growth

9COPYRIGHT 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY

Increasing demand for replacing older, less efficient aircraftUnits40,000

35,800

30,000

16,800 Growth 57%20,000

29,400 12,600 Replacement 43%

19,000

10,000

6,400 Retained Fleet0 2007 2030 10COPYRIGHT 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY

Aircraft Class DefinitionsN+3 Contract Classification Boeing Classification Regional Single Aisle 737 757 A320 Twin Aisle 767 777 A340 Very Large Jets 747 A380 Freighters Regional Medium Large

All vehicles sized for this contract will be considered family center points

Not included in this study11

COPYRIGHT 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY

Aircraft Type World Fleet Mix DetailsRegional Fleet Mix4,000

Medium Fleet Mix50,000 N-3 N-2 N-1 N 40,000 30,000 20,000

3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2008 2030 2055

N+1&2 10,000 N+3 0 2008 2030 2055

Large Fleet Mix15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2008COPYRIGHT 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY

N+3 aircraft do not approach 50% of fleet mix until ~2055

2030

2055

12

Scenario Derived Payload-Range Req.2030 Fleet RegionalNumber of Aircraft 2,675

Medium22,150

Large7,225

Family Midpoint # of Seats Avg. Distance Max Distance Avg. Trips/day Avg. MPH Fleet Daily Air Miles (K) Daily Miles Daily Hours

70

154

300

575 2,000 6.00 475 8,500 3,200 6.92

900 3,500 5.00 500 100,000 4,500 9.23

3,300 8,500 2.00 525 55,000 7,600 13.96

1313COPYRIGHT 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY

What Speed to Fly?BCA Advanced Concepts BR&T Platform Performance Technology

Minimum Speed For Each Aircraft Class Determined by Future Scenario Minimum Speed Drivers:Desired City Pairs Flight Crew Rules Aircraft Utilization

Current Class Speeds:Regional: ~ 0.70 0.75 Mach Medium: ~ 0.75 0.80 Mach Large: ~ 0.80 0.85 Mach

Propulsion technology may also place restrictions on speed The SUGAR team has selected the best speed to fly above these MINIMUM Speeds projected by future scenarioRegional: Optimum Medium: 0.6-0.7 Mach Large: 0.80 MachCopyright 2010 Boeing. All rights reserved.

14

Action Item #5 from 6-Month Review (1)BCA Advanced Concepts BR&T Platform Performance Technology

Look at using Carsons Speed for selecting cruise Mach use tangent point of fuel burn vs. cruise Mach plot There are a lot of ways to approach this. At the 6-month review, an eyeball approach was used to identify a shoulder Carsons method assumes a relative value of fuel burn compared to speed results in a speed of Mach ~0.8, which is not compatible with NASA fuel burn goals For SUGAR, we have a goal to minimize fuel burn which can result in an optimum cruise speed that is the minimum cruise speed of Mach 0.6 We are assuming that when a more sophisticated model that includes the value of speed, that the optimum speed will increase4,800 Fuel Burn (900 nm) 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 Strutted 3,600 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 Cruise Mach 0.75 0.8 0.85 No StrutICA Limit: 43,000-ft ICA Limit: 45,000-ft

At 6-Month Review Selected Optimum

Carsons Speed15

Copyright 2010 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Action Item #5 (2) Cruise Mach Selection ConsiderationsBCA Advanced Concepts BR&T Platform Performance Technology

NASA fuel burn goals drive the speed to Mach 0.7 and then lower with diminishing returns Future Scenario work sets a lower limit of 0.7 (soft) and 0.6 (hard), based on city pairs, efficient aircraft utilization, and value of time in the markets (for medium size aircraft) Simple economic analysis drives the speed up as high as 0.8 for cheap fuel or as low as 0.7 for expensive fuel Gate-to-gate time improvements resulting from improved ATC, can compensate for decreases in c

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