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Copyright © 2011 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Air Cargo Market Outlook for Africa

Tom CrabtreeAirline Market Analysis - Cargo

Boeing Commercial Airplanes23 February 2011

BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.Copyright © 2011 Boeing. All rights reserved.

The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other thanthat intended by Boeing.


2009 Air Cargo Growth by Major Market

World -11.3%

Intra-North America -12.6%Latin America – North America -14.5%Latin America – Europe -6.3%Europe – North America -21.0%Intra-Europe -10.7%Middle East – Europe -14.9%Africa – Europe -8.0%Asia – North America -12.9%Europe – Asia -10.3%Intra-Asia -7.5%South Asia – Europe -11.3%Domestic China 12.3%


World Air Cargo Traffic Growth Has Averaged 6.1% Per Year Since 1970

-4.1%

12.1%10.5%9.9%

7.8%

3.7%

9.8%

6.1%5.4%

2.4%

12.2%

1.9%

12.1%13.3%

9.8%

-2.1%

2.6%

9.3%

12.5%

10.3%

7.1%

12.2%

0.1%

8.5%

-5.3%

6.5%

4.1%

11.6%

3.4%3.3%

-1.8%

-11.3%

5.8%

1.9%

10.7%9.6%

0.9%

6.4%

10.1% 10.5%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

% C

hang

e in

Car

go T

raff

ic, Y

ear-

Ove

r-Y

ear

0

50

100

150

200

250

Wor

ld A

ir C

argo

Tra

ffic,

RTK

s, b

illio

ns

% Traffic ChangeActual Traffic, Revenue Tonne Kilometers (RTKs)


World Air Cargo Grew 20.0% for Jan-Nov 2010 Relative to Traffic Levels for Jan-Nov 2009

YTD Year-Over Comparison

World

Year To Date Air Cargo Growth by Regional Market

Jan - Nov 2010 vs. Jan - Nov 2009: 20.0%

22.5%-0.6%

43.5%4.1%

21.1%

34.4%

18.3%

20.0%

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, AAPA, AEA, ATA, and the Boeing World Cargo Forecast.

5.2%

7.8%


African Air Cargo Activity is Concentrated in Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya

Sources: Airports Council International (ACI), ICAO, Eurostat and Boeing Research.

Airport Tonnage HandledYear 2009

Cairo 285,839Nairobi 263,070Johannesburg 252,063Lagos 175,828Luxor 103,541Brazzaville 88,183Cape Town* 75,361Addis Ababa 74,119Kinshasa 67,544Khartoum 59,299

* Boeing estimate


North America7.8%

Middle East13.2% Europe

65.6%

Asia6.2%Africa

6.4%

Latin America0.9%

Europe is Africa's Primary Air Trade Partner

1,559,000 tonnes


300

400

500

600

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Africa Exports

Africa Imports

Tonnes, thousands

Africa - Europe Air Trade Has Grown 3.3% Per Year

Average annual growth,

1999 – 2009

Africa imports 4.6%

Africa exports 2.1%


0

30

60

90

120

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Africa Imports

Africa Exports

Tonnes, thousands

Africa - North America Air Trade Has Grown at 5.9% Per Year


1999 – 2009

Africa imports 8.6%

Africa exports 0.6%


Manufactured goods33.3%

Machinery and transport equipment

53.0%

Other8.7%

Chemicals & related

products5.0%

African air imports from Asia

85,000 tonnes

Chemicals and related

products17.6%

Other12.1%

Machinery and

transport equipment

36.8%

Food and live animals

28.9%

African air exports to Asia

11,000 tonnes

African Air Imports and Exports to Asia

Manufacturedgoods 4.6%


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029

Tonnes, thousands

History Forecast

2.1% growth per year

HighBaseLow


2009–2029

High 5.8%

Base 4.4%

Low 3.1%

Africa to Europe Air Trade Will Average 4.4% Growth Per Year


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029

Tonnes, thousands

History Forecast



2009–2029

High 6.4%

Base 5.7%

Low 5.1%

Europe to Africa Air Trade Will Average 5.7% Growth Per Year

HighBaseLow


World Air Cargo Traffic Will Triple Over the Next 20 Years

0

200

400

600

800

1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029

HighBaseLow

History Forecast

Average annual growth, 2009 to 2029

High 6.6%

Base 5.9%

Low 5.2%


RTKs, billions


Asia Markets Will Continue to Lead Industry Growth

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Intra Europe

Europe-S Asia

Europe-Middle East

Europe-Africa

North America-Latin America

Europe-Latin America.

Domestic China

North America

North America-Europe

Intra Asia

Europe-Asia

North America-Asia

2009 RTKs 2010 – 2029 RTKs

6.7%

Annual growth, percentage

6.6%

7.9%

4.2%

3.0%

5.6%

9.2%

5.7%

5.1%

6.5%

6.0%

3.6%

RTKs, billions


BAe-146 707 767* MD-11DC-9* DC-8* A300* 747*737* 757-200 A310* 777727* A320* L-1011SF A350Tu-204 MD-80* DC-10* A380

787 IL-96TA330* AN-124777-A SFIL-76TD

Freighter Fleet is Groupedinto Size Categories

Standard-body Medium Widebody Large(< 45 tonnes) (40 - 80 tonnes) (> 80 tonnes)

*Represents a series

Note: Production and conversion (SF) models assumed for each type unless otherwise specified


Freighter Fleet Increase Reflects World Traffic

Total airplanes: 1,755

Total airplanes: 2,967

Total airplanes, percentage

37%

36%36%

27%

40%

27%27%

33%

Large (>80 tonnes)

Medium widebody (40-80 tonnes)

Standard-body (<45 tonnes)


North America Leads in Total Deliveries; Asia, in Large Freighters

0

400

800

1,200

North America Asia Pacific Europe and CIS Middle East andAfrica

Latin America

Large (>80 tons)

Medium widebody (40-80 tons)

Standard-body (<45 tons)

Number of airplanes

84

63

66


Boeing Offers a Complete Line of Freighters

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Rev

enu

e P

aylo

ad,

lbR

evenu

e Paylo

ad, M

etric To

ns

Range, nmi

25

50

75

100

125

737-700C

MD-11BCF

767-300F

757-200SF

767-300ER BCF

777F

747-8F

747-400BCF

777-200ER BCF

*Note: Product Development Study

767-300BCF*

737-300SF

737-400SF

777-200BCF


Air Cargo Market Outlook for AfricaSummary

After the worst-ever downturn, world air cargo has made a remarkable comeback, demonstrating its vital role in global commerce.

African air cargo markets will expand in the range 5% to 8% per year, with Europe remaining the primary air trade partner for the continent.

World air cargo traffic levels will triple over the next two decades, with long-haul markets linked to Asia leading growth.

The world freighter fleet will expand by more than two-thirds to nearly 3000 aircraft by 2029. African and Middle East carriers will take delivery of over 200 freighter aircraft in this timeframe.

Boeing Offers the Most Complete Freighter Product Line.


World Air Cargo Forecast 2010-2011

www.boeing.com/commercial/cargowww.boeing.com/commercial/cargo

copyright © 2011 boeing. all rights reserved. air cargo market outlook for africa tom crabtree...

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