beyond the bubble: ipsos mori at the labour party conference 2013

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research Ipsos MORI

Is the Labour lead

soft?

3

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ju

n-1

0

Sep

-10

De

c-1

0

Ma

r-11

Ju

n-1

1

Sep

-11

De

c-1

1

Ma

r-12

Ju

n-1

2

Sep

-12

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ju

n-1

3

Sep

-13

37%

10%

34%

Base: c. 1,000 British adults, all giving voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Since 2010 Labour has consistently led in the polls

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

11%

June-Dec 2010:

Avg. -1.5pt Lab lead Jan ’11-Mar ‘12:

Avg. 4pt Lab lead

April ’12-April’13:

Avg. 10pt Lab lead

May – Sept ‘13:

6 pt Lab lead

4 September’s poll showed a curbing of enthusiasm

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative lead = -10

All giving a voting intention:


30%

40%

10%

10%

10%

Base 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th -9h September 2013, all certain to vote = 545

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other

All certain to vote:


34%

37%

10%

11%

8%

5 Labour are holding on to most of 2010 voters


Still Con/Lab/LD, not certain to vote

Base: 8,091 GB adults 18+, January-August 2013

Voted Labour

in 2010


Still Con/Lab/LD and certain to vote Not Con/Lab/LD any more

59% 23%

18%

6 But not winning over many Tories…


Still Con, not certain to vote


Voted Tory

in 2010


Still Con and certain to vote Not Con any more

49%

20%

13%

5%

2% 11%

Other

Lib Dems

UKIP

Labour

7 Relying heavily on Lib Dem switchers


Still LD, not certain to vote


Voted LD

in 2010


Still LD and certain to vote Not LD any more

26%

13%

29%

7%

5%

20% Other

UKIP

Conservatives

Labour

So, a consistent lead, but

should you be worried?

What are the foundations

of Labour’s lead?

10 What makes people vote the way they do?

Which if any, of the of the following are the most important reasons why you said you vote for..?


Conservative supporters Liberal Democrat supporters UKIP supporters Labour supporters

Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013

I think their leader would make the bestPrime Minister

I agree with their policies

I believe in what the party stands for

11 What makes people vote the way they do?





79% 88%

83% 67%




12 The good image…

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various

political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the…

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013

And the less good image

14%

21%

17%

27%

38%

27%

47%

39%

Fit to govern

Has a good team of leaders

41%

27%

44%

29%

55%

43%

44%

30%

Understands the problemsfacing Britain

Looks after the interest of people like me

Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrats UKIP

13 But no-one really comes out particularly well


political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the…


73%

41%

24%

28%

46%

46%

15%

62%

50%

50%

25%

62%

52%

50%

26%

67%

Different to other parties

Out of date

Keeps its promises

Divided

Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party UKIP

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013

So, what about your

policies?

15 So, what about policies?





80%

79%

87%

88%

75%

83%

77%

67%




16

1%

2%

1%

1%

6%

5%

6%

8%

32%

30%

36%

31%

18%

26%

21%

25%

Housing

Unemployment

Healthcare

Education


Labour lead in traditional areas


17

18%

3%

11%

9%

6%

6%

21%

19%

19%

22%

31%

22%

Europe

Crime & anti-social behaviour

Asylum/ immigration


And the Conservatives lead where you would

expect them to


18

Base: 970 British adults 18+, 30th August – 8th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

But on the most important issue…

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

45

33

32

23

21

16

13

13

11

10

Top mentions %

Economy

Race relations/Immigration

Inflation/Prices

NHS

Unemployment

Crime/Law and order

Defence/foreign affairs

Education/schools

Poverty/Inequality

Housing

19

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

r-90

Sep

-90

Ma

r-91

Sep

-91

Ma

r-92

Sep

-92

Ma

r-93

Sep

-93

Ma

r-94

Sep

-94

Ma

r-95

Sep

-95

Ma

r-96

Sep

-96

Ma

r-97

Sep

-97

Ma

r-98

Sep

-98

Ma

r-99

Sep

-99

Ma

r-00

Sep

-00

Ma

r-01

Sep

-01

Ma

r-02

Sep

-02

Ma

r-03

Sep

-03

Ma

r-04

Sep

-04

Ma

r-05

Sep

-05

Ma

r-06

Sep

-06

Ma

r-07

Sep

-07

Ma

r-08

Sep

-08

Ma

r-09

Sep

-09

Ma

r-10

Sep

-10

Ma

r-11

Sep

-11

Ma

r-12

Sep

-12

Ma

r-13

Sep

-13

Labour have yet to regain economic credibility…

Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal

Democrats or some other party?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

r-90

Sep

-90

Ma

r-91

Sep

-91

Ma

r-92

Sep

-92

Ma

r-93

Sep

-93

Ma

r-94

Sep

-94

Ma

r-95

Sep

-95

Ma

r-96

Sep

-96

Ma

r-97

Sep

-97

Ma

r-98

Sep

-98

Ma

r-99

Sep

-99

Ma

r-00

Sep

-00

Ma

r-01

Sep

-01

Ma

r-02

Sep

-02

Ma

r-03

Sep

-03

Ma

r-04

Sep

-04

Ma

r-05

Sep

-05

Ma

r-06

Sep

-06

Ma

r-07

Sep

-07

Ma

r-08

Sep

-08

Ma

r-09

Sep

-09

Ma

r-10

Sep

-10

Ma

r-11

Sep

-11

Ma

r-12

Sep

-12

Ma

r-13

Sep

-13

Labour have yet to regain economic credibility…

Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal

Democrats or some other party?


38%

20%

5%

21

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over

the next 12 months?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

Perhaps not surprising given summer of rising

economic optimism…


Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index =

% improve minus % get worse

Still get blamed for

economy and cuts

Balls doing

no better than

Osborne

22 Although closer on the living standards debate

Do you think you and you family would be better off under a Conservative government or a Labour

government, or do you think it would make no difference?



22%

52%

23% Conservative

government

Labour

government

Make no

difference

How do voters

choose their party?

24 The leader is a particular draw for the

Conservatives





53%

80%

79%

36%

87%

88%

37%

75%

83%

64%

77%

67%




25


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

Ed Miliband’s approval ratings are concerning

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

MILIBAND (2010-2013)

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

26



How does Ed match up to his predecessors?


CAMERON (2005-2010)



Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

27





BLAIR (1994-1997)



Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

28



HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)





Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

29 Cameron and Farage do better among their own

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron/Nick Clegg/Ed Miliband/Nigel Farage is doing

his job as Prime Minister/Deputy Prime Minister/leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?

40%

52%

8%

Satisfied Don’t know

Dissatisfied

48%

44%

7%

79%

10%

11%

71%

23%

8%

30

24

26

28

15

13

24

23

18

6

8

8

8

20

21

20

26

30

16

17

30

7

4

4

3

I don't know what Nigel Faragestands for

I don't know what Nick Cleggstands for

I don't know what Ed Milibandstands for

I don't know what David Cameronstands for

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree

Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't Know

Half don’t know what he stands for


To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th -12th August 2013

33% 56%

51% 37%

50% 37%

37% 50%

31 And Cameron leads on more Prime Ministerial

qualities


politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…

79%

50%

70%

52%

40%

53%

47%

40%

58%

52%

49%

41%

32%

28%

20%

19%

Miliband Cameron


Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013

A capable leader

Understands the problems facing Britain

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement

Out of touch with ordinary people

More style than substance

Has got a lot of personality

Looks after some sections of society more than others

How do voters

choose their party?

33 Can’t ignore the other parties….





53%

80%

79%

36%

87%

88%

37%

75%

83%

64%

77%

67%

I don't like any of the other parties




34 Can’t ignore the other parties….





56%

53%

80%

79%

48%

36%

87%

88%

41%

37%

75%

83%

43%

64%

77%

67%

I don't like any of the other parties




35

Ne

t s

ati

sfa

cti

on

LABOUR: 1997 - 2010


Number of months from new

government taking power


2001 GE

1987 GE

JOHN MAJOR

BECOMES PM

CONSERVATIVES: 1979-1997

COALITION: 2010-2012

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?

Most governments suffer from diminishing returns….

2005 GE

GORDON BROWN

BECOMES PM

1983 GE

1992 GE

36 The Conservatives are still the most disliked party

Which of these statements come closest to your view of the Labour/Conservative/Liberal Democrat/United

Kingdom Independence party?

% dislike party

37

People have different ideas about the best way of dealing with Britain’s economic difficulties. Which of the

following do you most agree with?

And they have their issues too….

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

52 6 41

Britain has a debt problem, built up over many

years, and we have got to deal with it. If we

don’t, interest rates will soar. That’s why

tackling the deficit and keeping interest rates

low should be our top priority.

Without growth in our economy, we are not

getting the deficit down and are borrowing

more. We need more government spending on

investment to kick-start our economy and a

temporary cut in taxes to support growth

37 10 53

George Osborne argues… Ed Balls argues…

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th March 2013

38 Tactical voting isn’t dead…..

You said that you would vote for the … party. If you had to vote for another party, which party, if any, would it

be?



Lab

supporters

Lib Dem

supporters

Conservatives 14 30

Labour - 31

Liberal Democrats 30 -

UKIP 9 7

Other 16 20

Would not vote for

another party/none 22 5

Don’t know 8 7

39 Tactical voting isn’t dead…..

You said that you would vote for the … party. If you had to vote for another party, which party, if any, would it

be?



Lab

supporters

Lib Dem

supporters

Con

supporters

UKIP

supporters

Conservatives 14 30 - 37

Labour - 31 13 17

Liberal Democrats 30 - 33 9

UKIP 9 7 23 -

Other 16 20 6 17

Would not vote for

another party/none 22 5 17 16

Don’t know 8 7 9 4

Is the Labour lead

soft?

Is the Labour lead

soft fragile?

42 Is the Labour lead fragile?

Labour have held a consistent lead, and some

conditions in your favour

But:

– losing ground on the number 1 issue, the economy

– Ed Miliband still not convincing the public

– Risky to just rely on switching Libdems?

Thank you

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI

Questions and Discussion

beyond the bubble: ipsos mori at the labour party conference 2013

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