beer industry profile

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Beer in India

Industry Profile

Reference Code: 0102-0744Publication date: September 2009

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India - Beer

© Datamonitor (Published September 2009)

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

India - Beer


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Market Value

The Indian beer market grew by 18.8% in 2008 to reach a value of $3.4 billion.

Market Value Forecast

In 2013, the Indian beer market is forecast to have a value of $6.4 billion, an increase of 86.3% since 2008.

Market Volume

The Indian beer market grew by 15.8% in 2008 to reach a volume of 1.3 billion liters.

Market Volume Forecast

In 2013, the Indian beer market is forecast to have a volume of 2.1 billion liters, an increase of 65% since 2008.

Market Segmentation I

Standard lager sales proved the most lucrative for the Indian beer market in 2008, generating 95.9% of the market's overall revenues.

Market Segmentation II

India accounts for 3.5% of the Asia-Pacific beer market's value.

Market Share

United Breweries Limited accounts for 48.2% of the Indian beer market's volume.

Distribution

Specialist retailers lead the Indian beer market, distributing 56.7% of the market's overall volume.

CONTENTS

India - Beer


TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

CHAPTER 1 Market Overview 7

1.1 Market Definition 7

1.2 Research Highlights 7

1.3 Market Analysis 8

CHAPTER 2 Market Value 9

CHAPTER 3 Market Volume 10

CHAPTER 4 Market Segmentation I 11

CHAPTER 5 Market Segmentation II 12

CHAPTER 6 Market Share 13

CHAPTER 7 Competitive Landscape 14

CHAPTER 8 Leading Companies 17

8.1 United Breweries Limited 17

8.2 SABMiller Plc 19

8.3 Mount Shivalik Industries Limited 23

CHAPTER 9 Distribution 24

CONTENTS

India - Beer


CHAPTER 10 Market Forecasts 25

10.1 Market Value Forecast 25

10.2 Market Volume Forecast 26

CHAPTER 11 Macroeconomic Indicators 27

CHAPTER 12 Appendix 29

12.1 Methodology 29

12.2 Industry Associations 30

12.3 Related Datamonitor Research 30

CONTENTS

India - Beer


LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: India Beer Market Value: $ billion, 2004-2008 ....................................................9

Table 2: India Beer Market Volume: Liters million, 2004-2008........................................10

Table 3: India Beer Market Segmentation I: % Share, by Value, 2008 ...........................11

Table 4: India Beer Market Segmentation II: % Share, by Value, 2008 ..........................12

Table 5: India Beer Market Share: % Share, by Volume, 2008.......................................13

Table 6: Key Facts: United Breweries Limited ................................................................17

Table 7: Key Financials: United Breweries Limited.........................................................18

Table 8: Key Facts: SABMiller Plc ..................................................................................19

Table 9: Key Financials: SABMiller Plc...........................................................................22

Table 10: Key Facts: Mount Shivalik Industries Limited....................................................23

Table 11: India Beer Distribution: % Share, by Volume, 2008 ..........................................24

Table 12: India Beer Market Value Forecast: $ billion, 2008-2013....................................25

Table 13: India Beer Market Volume Forecast: Liters million, 2008-2013 .........................26

Table 14: India Size of Population (million) , 2004-2008...................................................27

Table 15: India GDP (Constant 2000 Prices, $ billion), 2004-2008...................................27

Table 16: India Inflation, 2004-2008 .................................................................................27

Table 17: India Exchange Rate, 2004-2008 .....................................................................28

MARKET OVERVIEW

India - Beer


CHAPTER 1 MARKET OVERVIEW

1.1 Market Definition

The beer market consists of ales, stouts & bitters, low/no alcohol beers, premium lager, specialty beers and standard lager. The market is valued according to retail selling price (RSP) and includes any applicable taxes. Any currency conversions used in the creation of this report have been calculated using constant annual average exchange rates.

Asia-Pacific comprises Australia, China, Japan, India, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.

1.2 Research Highlights

The Indian beer market generated total revenues of $3.4 billion in 2008, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.3% for the period spanning 2004-2008.

Standard lager sales proved the most lucrative for the Indian beer market in 2008, generating total revenues of $3.3 billion, equivalent to 95.9% of the market's overall value.

The performance of the market is forecast to decelerate, with an anticipated CAGR of 13.3% for the five-year period 2008-2013, which is expected to lead the market to a value of $6.4 billion by the end of 2013.

MARKET OVERVIEW

India - Beer


1.3 Market Analysis

The Indian beer market grew at a strong rate between 2004 and 2008. The growth in this market is expected to decelerate slightly in the forthcoming five years.

The Indian beer market generated total revenues of $3.4 billion in 2008, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.3% for the period spanning 2004-2008. In comparison, the Chinese and South Korean markets grew with CAGRs of 12% and 1.2%, respectively, over the same period, to reach respective values of $42.8 billion and $9.7 billion in 2008.

Market consumption volumes increased with a CAGR of 12.1% for the period 2004-2008, to reach a total of 1.3 billion liters in 2008. The market's volume is expected to rise to 2.1 billion liters by the end of 2013, representing a CAGR of 10.5% for the 2008-2013 period.

Standard lager sales proved the most lucrative for the Indian beer market in 2008, generating total revenues of $3.3 billion, equivalent to 95.9% of the market's overall value. In comparison, sales of premium lager generated revenues of $139.8 million in 2008, equating to 4.1% of the market's aggregate revenues.

The performance of the market is forecast to decelerate, with an anticipated CAGR of 13.3% for the five-year period 2008-2013, which is expected to lead the market to a value of $6.4 billion by the end of 2013. Comparatively, the Chinese and South Korean markets will grow with CAGRs of 9.4% and 1.3%, respectively, over the same period, to reach respective values of $67 billion and $10.3 billion in 2013.

MARKET VALUE

India - Beer


CHAPTER 2 MARKET VALUE

The Indian beer market grew by 18.8% in 2008 to reach a value of $3.4 billion.

The compound annual growth rate of the market in the period 2004-2008 was 14.3%.

Table 1: India Beer Market Value: $ billion, 2004-2008 Year $ billion INR billion % Growth 2004 2.0 88.4 2005 2.3 100.0 13.20%2006 2.5 110.5 10.40%2007 2.9 126.9 14.90%2008 3.4 150.7 18.80% CAGR, 2004-2008: 14.3% Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

Figure 1: India Beer Market Value: $ billion, 2004-2008

Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

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MARKET VOLUME

India - Beer


CHAPTER 3 MARKET VOLUME

The Indian beer market grew by 15.8% in 2008 to reach a volume of 1,271.8 million liters.

The compound annual growth rate of the market volume in the period 2004-2008 was 12.1%.

Table 2: India Beer Market Volume: Liters million, 2004-2008 Year Liters million % Growth 2004 804.8 2005 903.5 12.30%2006 983.2 8.80%2007 1,098.7 11.70%2008 1,271.8 15.80% CAGR, 2004-2008: 12.1% Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

Figure 2: India Beer Market Volume: Liters million, 2004-2008


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MARKET SEGMENTATION I

India - Beer


CHAPTER 4 MARKET SEGMENTATION I

Standard lager sales proved the most lucrative for the Indian beer market in 2008, generating 95.9% of the market's overall revenues.

Sales of premium lager generated 4.1% of the market's aggregate revenues.

Table 3: India Beer Market Segmentation I: % Share, by Value, 2008 Category % Share Standard lager 95.90%Premium lager 4.10%Ales, stouts & bitters <0.1%Low/no alcohol <0.1%Specialty beer <0.1% Total 100.0% Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

Figure 3: India Beer Market Segmentation I: % Share, by Value, 2008

Standard lager95.9%

Premium lager4.1%


MARKET SEGMENTATION II

India - Beer


CHAPTER 5 MARKET SEGMENTATION II

India accounts for 3.5% of the Asia-Pacific beer market's value.

In comparison China accounts for a further 42.9% of the regional market's value.

Table 4: India Beer Market Segmentation II: % Share, by Value, 2008 Geography % Share China 42.90%Japan 28.60%Rest of Asia-Pacific 15.20%South Korea 9.80%India 3.50% Total 100.0% Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

Figure 4: India Beer Market Segmentation II: % Share, by Value, 2008


China42.9%

Japan28.6%

Rest of Asia-Pacif ic15.2%

South Korea9.8%

India3.5%

MARKET SHARE

India - Beer


CHAPTER 6 MARKET SHARE

United Breweries Limited accounts for 48.2% of the Indian beer market's volume.

SABMiller accounts for a further 36.6% of the market's volume.

Table 5: India Beer Market Share: % Share, by Volume, 2008 Company % Share United Breweries Limited 48.20%SABMiller 36.60%Mount Shivalik 2.90%Other 12.20% Total 100.0% Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

Figure 5: India Beer Market Share: % Share, by Volume, 2008


United Brew eries

Limited48.2%

SABMiller36.6%

Mount Shivalik2.9%

Other12.2%

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

India - Beer


CHAPTER 7 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

The beer market will be analyzed taking manufacturers of beer as players. The key buyers will be taken as retail and on-trade companies, and producers of malted grain, hops and bottles or barrels as the key suppliers.

The Indian beer market is highly concentrated, with top three players holding 87.8% of the total market by volume. The market leaders own a variety of recognized brands and operate within various segments of the market, which is possible due to the ease of increase in production capacity once a company is established. There is a high degree of product differentiation in the market, as there are many varieties within the beer category, including: ales, stouts, low/no alcohol, standard and premium lager, and specialty beer. Buyer power varies depending on buyer’s reliance on beer sales to generate revenues. Therefore, buyer power is greater amongst larger retailers (supermarkets/hypermarkets) as switching costs for buyers are not particularly high.

The wide range of brands available, with an accompanying variance in quality and price, prevents buyer power from becoming disproportionately strong in this market. Supplier power is also moderate, due to the fact, that raw materials for the end product are commonly available. Entry into this market would be highly dependent on the growth prospects and also on the size of the existing players. Furthermore, beer is vulnerable to the threat from substitutes such as spirits and wine, due to low switching costs and consumption patterns in different geographies.

The buyers in this market are highly concentrated. Supermarket chains are often able to negotiate very strongly on price with beer producers, which boost their buyer power significantly. Switching costs for buyers are not particularly high, which increases buyer power in all markets. Beer producers can differentiate their products quite strongly, not only by the overall segment (lager or bitter, for example) but also by brand, ingredients, style, and so on. This, and the fact that major buyers generally need to offer a wide range of beers for their own customers depending on their needs, should tend to weaken buyer power. Furthermore, producers and retailers operate in distinct businesses, with very little likelihood of forward or backward integration. Overall, buyer power is assessed as moderate.

The main inputs for beer producers in the Indian market are malted grain, hops and bottles or barrels. Traditionally, beer makers operated non-vertically integrated businesses: buying hops from independent producers along with either barley from farmers for processing at the brewery’s own malting house, or malted barley from third-party maltings. Beer would then be made from these raw materials and casked or bottled on site. This model is still followed by large companies to some extent. However, the scale of the dominant multinational players means that some breweries in the global market now grow their own hops, weakening supplier power.


India - Beer


The independent hop growers are numerous, and include some fairly small operations, which further weakens supplier power. Independent barley growers can find alternative markets; for example, barley can be sold for animal feed and malted barley for distillation in the production of spirits, and it is also possible to integrate forwards into beer-making: these factors boost supplier power. Raw material quality is highly important in this business: the end product is strongly influenced by the nature of the ingredients used. Overall, the supplier power is moderate.

As high quality beers can be sold at premium prices, it is now possible to enter the market on a small scale as a ‘microbrewery’. Investment in production equipment can be recouped by adding a good margin to the price of the end-product. The larger companies, however, tend to rely on the mass-market production of internationally palatable lagers. Here, margins may be much lower. Producers need to distribute their products widely, which generally relies upon retail channels such as supermarkets. Despite the presence of company-owned on-trade outlets, these retail chains often have considerable buyer power, which can force down the prices that beer producers are able to obtain. In such a market, economies of scale become much more important. As a result, barriers to entry, such as capital outlay on large-scale production plants and the need to establish reliable supplies from multiple third-party hop and barley growers, become much higher. Government regulation of beer and other alcoholic beverages market is stringent, and may impact on the ease of market entry. Overall, there is a moderate likelihood of new entrants.

The main substitutes for beer are other alcoholic beverages such as spirits and wine, and in some cases non-alcoholic beverages such as functional drinks, which can act as substitute for low/no alcohol beer. From the point of view of retailers or on-trade businesses, the switching costs are not high, and the per-unit-volume prices are higher than for spirits or wine. It is also difficult to be conclusive about the benefits of alternatives: for example, not only beers but also champagnes and white wines are optimally stored in chilled cabinets, which make them more expensive to store; more concentrated forms of alcohol (spirits) may offer better returns on shelf space than higher-volume wines and beers. Some on-trade establishments, such as pubs, would find it difficult to operate without selling beer; others, for example restaurants and bars targeting particular demographics, are more focused on wine and spirits. From the point of view of the consumer, there are some differences between the ways different alcoholic beverages are used, but many consumption decisions are a matter of personal taste - this makes beer vulnerable to the threat of other alcoholic beverages. Overall, there is a moderate threat from substitutes.

The Indian beer market is highly concentrated, with the top three players holding an aggregate share of around 87.8% of the total market by volume. Some large beer producers have begun to introduce brand management and modern merchandising through injecting bold brands, label designs and marketing campaigns in order to become more identifiable to the public.


India - Beer


Purchasers have a very wide range of beers to choose from, with relatively low switching costs. Major players may offer premium beers, but much of their business involves mass-market products. This implies high fixed costs, because of the need to operate large breweries. At the same time, prices that can be obtained for these products may be forced down by large retailer chains able to exert strong bargaining power. These factors boost rivalry, which is assessed as moderate overall.

LEADING COMPANIES

India - Beer


CHAPTER 8 LEADING COMPANIES

8.1 United Breweries Limited

Table 6: Key Facts: United Breweries Limited Address: Level 12-16, UB Tower, UB City 24, Vittal, Mallya Road,

Bangalore, 560 001, India Telephone: 91 80 2227 5809 Fax: 91 80 2227 4890 Website: www.kingfisherworld.com Financial Year-End: March Ticker: 532478 Stock Exchange: Bombay Stock Exchange Source: Company Website D A T A M O N I T O R

United Breweries Limited is engaged in the manufacturing, purchase and sale of beer, including licensing of brands. The company primarily operates in India and Kingfisher Premium is the flagship brand of the company.

It has 22 manufacturing facilities through out India, some of which includes UB Ludhiana, SIL-Faridabad, and UB Hyderabad. The company operates through its subsidiary, Associated Breweries & Distilleries Limited. During the financial year ended March 2008, the company acquired a 51% interest in Maltex Malsters Limited (MML) and consequently MML became a subsidiary of the company. UBL and its associates has control of over 64% in the Mild Beer segment and over 40% in the Strong Beer segment, thereby dominating both the segments in the country. Moreover, during the FY2008, the sales volume of Kingfisher Strong Beer exceeded 32 million cases whereas Kingfisher Premium Lager beer exceeded 25 million cases.

Its portfolio of brands include: Kingfisher, UB Export, London Pilsner, Premium Ice and Kalyani Black Label. Kingfisher Premium Lager beer is currently available in 52 countries outside India and is one of the leading Indian beer brands. It has been ranked amongst the top 10 fastest growing brands in the UK. In addition, UBL utilizes Scottish & New Castle’s (S&N) network, an international brewery, to further globalize its Kingfisher brand. Further, the alliance also allows S&N to market its international brands like Kronenbourg in India.

LEADING COMPANIES

India - Beer


Key Metrics

United Breweries (Holdings) Limited generated revenues of $363.1 million in the financial year (FY) ended March 2008, an increase of 29.3% over 2007. The company's net income totaled $12.4 million in FY2008, a decrease of 1.5% over 2007.

Table 7: Key Financials: United Breweries Limited

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Revenues 117.2 138.5 188.0 280.7 363.1Net Income -2.8 -1.0 -2.5 12.6 12.4Profit Margin -2.4% -0.7% -1.3% 4.5% 3.4%Total Assets 163.4 194.1 270.6 346.8 382.1Total Liabilities 158.0 128.4 140.5 205.1 228.3Employees 1,733 1,844 1,871 2,061 2,006All in $ millions, except for employee numbers and margins Source: Company Filings D A T A M O N I T O R

Figure 6: Revenues & Profitability: United Breweries Limited

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LEADING COMPANIES

India - Beer


8.2 SABMiller Plc

Table 8: Key Facts: SABMiller Plc Address: One Stanhope Gate, London W1K 1AF, United Kingdom Telephone: 44 20 7659 0100 Fax: 44 20 7659 0111 Website: www.sabmiller.com Financial Year-End: March Ticker: SAB Stock Exchange: London Source: Company Website D A T A M O N I T O R

SABMiller is one of the world's largest brewers with brewing interests and distribution agreements across six continents. The company's market presence ranges from developed economies in Europe and North America to emerging markets such as China and India.

In premium beers category, SABMiller offers brands such as Pilsner Urquell, Peroni Nastro Azzurro and Miller Genuine Draft. It also markets a range of local brands such as Aguila, Miller Lite, Snow and Tyskie. SABMiller is also one of the largest bottlers of Coca-Cola products in the world.

The company’s operations are primarily divided across beer manufacturing and soft drinks business. However, SABMiller’s reporting is primarily based on geographical operations: North America, Latin America, Europe, South Africa and Africa and Asia.

SABMiller operates in North America through its subsidiary, Miller Brewing Company (Miller), which is the second largest brewer in the US. In July 2008, the company entered a joint venture with Molson Coors Brewing Company combining their operations in US and Puerto Rico to form MillerCoors LLC. MillerCoors recorded a sales volume of 30.9 million hectoliters in the year ended 2009. Miller operates eight breweries in the US and also carries out licensed production in Canada and Mexico. MillerCoors is headquartered in Chicago. The popular brands include Blue Moon, Coors Banquet, Coors Light, Foster’s, Miller Genuine Draft, Miller High Life, Miller Chill, Old English and Molson Canadian.

In Latin America, SABMiller carries its brewing and beverage operations through six countries including Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama and Peru. The regional office of this segment is located at Bogota, Colombia. The company has 17 breweries and 16 bottling plants in this segment. The company also bottles soft drinks for The Coca-Cola Company through the plant in El Salvador and for PepsiCo International through the plant in Panama. The sales volume of this segment recorded 37 million hectoliters of lager in 2008.

LEADING COMPANIES

India - Beer


The popular local beer brands of this segment include Aguila, Atlas, Balboa, Barena, Club, Club Colombia, Costena, Cristal, Cusquena, Golden Light, Pilsener, Pilsen Callao, Poker, Port Royal and Salva Vida.

In Europe, SABMiller's brewing operations covers ten countries. These are the Canary Islands (Spain), Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Ukraine and The Netherlands. The regional office of this segment is located at Zug, Switzerland. The company also exports considerable volumes to European countries in which UK and Germany form major share. The sales volume for this segment was 47.2 million hectoliters in 2009, an increase of 8% over 2008. The popular local beer brands include Arany Aszok, Dorada, Dreher, Gambrinus, Grolsch, Peroni Nastro, Azzurro, Radegast, Birell, Topvar, Tyskie, Ursus and Zubr.

SABMiller operates in South Africa through South African Breweries. The company has 7 breweries and 7 bottling plants in this segment. It is head quartered in Johannesburg. The sales volume of this segment was 26 million hectoliters of lager and 1.3 million hectoliters of other alcoholic beverages for the year ended 2009. The popular local brands include Carling Black Label, Castle Lager, Castle Lite, Dreher, Hansa Marzen Gold, Hansa Pilsener, Redd’s and Skelter’s Straight. SABMiller is also engaged in the hotel and gaming operations, owning a 49% stake in the Tsogo Sun group, one of the largest hotel and gaming groups in South Africa.

In Africa, the brewing and beverage operations are carried in 32 countries which also include the strategic alliance with Castel Group in 18 countries. In Asia, the company operates in China through China Resources Snow Breweries Limited (CR Snow), which is a joint venture with China Resources Enterprise (CRE). SABMiller also has joint venture in Australia. The company exports considerable volumes to South Korea and Taiwan. The sales volume of this segment was 54.4 million hectoliters of lager and 4 million hectoliters of other alcoholic beverages for the year 2009. The company has 41 breweries and 14 bottling plants in this segment. The popular local brands include Bluetongue, Castle Lager, Chibuku, Club, Club Pilsner, Eagle, Foster’s, Haywards, Indus Pride, Kilimanjaro, Knock Out, Royal Challenge, Safari, Stone, Tusker and Zorok.

SABMiller is the second largest brewer in India with brands like Hywards 5000, Knock Out, Fosters and Royal Challenge Premium. In October 2008, SABMiller introduced Indus Pride in Rajasthan followed by its release in Karnataka, in March 2009 and the company is planning to make it nation wide beer by 2010. SABMiller is also planning to launch Premium beer Grolsch, Miller Lite and also non alcoholic version of Indus Pride in India.

LEADING COMPANIES

India - Beer


Key Metrics

SABMiller generated revenues of $18,703 million in the financial year ended March 2009, a decrease of 12.6% compared to the previous year. The company's net income totaled $1,881 million in fiscal 2009, a decrease of 7% compared with 2008.

Africa and Asia segment (including India) formed 11% of the total revenues for the FY2009. The revenues from Africa and Asia segment recorded $2.1 billion in FY2009, an increase of 11% over FY2008.

The beer segment recorded revenues of $15.8 billion in the FY2009, a decrease of 15.7% over previous year.

LEADING COMPANIES

India - Beer


Table 9: Key Financials: SABMiller Plc

Metric 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Revenues 12,901.0 15,307.0 18,620.0 21,410.0 18,703.0Net Income 1,521.0 1,440.0 1,649.0 2,023.0 1,881.0Profit Margin 11.8% 9.4% 8.9% 9.4% 10.1%Total Assets 15,647.0 27,115.0 28,736.0 36,082.0 31,619.0Total Liabilities 6,892.0 13,177.0 13,735.0 17,838.0 15,506.0Employees 40,892 53,772 66,949 69,116 68,635

All in $ millions, except for employee numbers and margins


Figure 7: Revenues & Profitability: SABMiller Plc

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LEADING COMPANIES

India - Beer


8.3 Mount Shivalik Industries Limited

Table 10: Key Facts: Mount Shivalik Industries Limited Address: Mohangram, Bhankarpur, Patiala, Punjab, India Telephone: 91 1762 30052 Fax: 91 1762 30051 Website: www.thunderboltbeer.com Financial Year-End: March Ticker: MOUNTSHIQ Stock Exchange: Bombay Stock Exchange Source: Company Website D A T A M O N I T O R

Mount Shivalik Industries (MSI) is an India-based company, engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of beer. The brewery has an installed capacity of 150,000 hectoliters of beer per annum.

MSI offers beer brands under two product categories: strong beer and mild beer. Strong beer category comprises brands such as Thunderbolt Super Strong, Torpendo Super Strong, Punjab Extra Strong and Stroh's Super Strong. Mild beer category markets brands such as Golden Peacock Premium Lager and Stroh's Premium Lager.

Key Metrics

Mount Shivalik Industries generated revenues of $23.5 million in the financial year ended March 2009 (FY2009), an increase of 9.8% over 2008. The company's net income totaled $0.3 million in FY2009, a decrease of 74.8% over 2008.

DISTRIBUTION

India - Beer


CHAPTER 9 DISTRIBUTION

Specialist retailers lead the Indian beer market, distributing 56.7% of the market's overall volume.

On-trade distribution accounts for a further 43.1% of the market's volume.

Table 11: India Beer Distribution: % Share, by Volume, 2008 Channel % Share Specialist Retailers 56.70%On-trade 43.10%Supermarkets / hypermarkets 0.20%Other <0.1% Total 100.0% Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

Figure 8: India Beer Distribution: % Share, by Volume, 2008

Specialist Retailers56.7%

On-trade43.1%

Supermarkets / hypermarkets

0.2%


MARKET FORECASTS

India - Beer


CHAPTER 10 MARKET FORECASTS

10.1 Market Value Forecast

In 2013, the Indian beer market is forecast to have a value of $6.4 billion, an increase of 86.3% since 2008.

The compound annual growth rate of the market in the period 2008-2013 is predicted to be 13.3%.

Table 12: India Beer Market Value Forecast: $ billion, 2008-2013 Year $ billion INR billion % Growth 2008 3.4 150.7 18.80%2009 3.9 172.8 14.60%2010 4.5 196.2 13.60%2011 5.1 222.0 13.10%2012 5.7 250.2 12.70%2013 6.4 280.9 12.30% CAGR, 2008-2013: 13.3% Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

Figure 9: India Beer Market Value Forecast: $ billion, 2008-2013


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MARKET FORECASTS

India - Beer


10.2 Market Volume Forecast

In 2013, the Indian beer market is forecast to have a volume of 2,098.2 million liters, an increase of 65% since 2008.

The compound annual growth rate of the market volume in the period 2008-2013 is predicted to be 10.5%.

Table 13: India Beer Market Volume Forecast: Liters million, 2008-2013 Year Liters million % Growth 2008 1,271.8 15.80%2009 1,421.3 11.80%2010 1,574.2 10.80%2011 1,738.0 10.40%2012 1,912.7 10.10%2013 2,098.2 9.70% CAGR, 2008-2013: 10.5% Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

Figure 10: India Beer Market Volume Forecast: Liters million, 2008-2013


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MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

India - Beer


CHAPTER 11 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

Table 14: India Size of Population (million) , 2004-2008 Year Population (million) % Growth 2004 1075.52005 1093.6 1.70%2006 1111.7 1.70%2007 1129.9 1.60%2008 1148.0 1.60% Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

Table 15: India GDP (Constant 2000 Prices, $ billion), 2004-2008

Year Constant 2000

Prices, $ billion % Growth 2004 593.92005 647.5 9.00%2006 708.1 9.40%2007 772.6 9.10%2008 832.1 7.70% Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

Table 16: India Inflation, 2004-2008 Year Inflation Rate (%) 2004 2.72005 3.32006 6.92007 8.12008 9.2 Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

India - Beer


Table 17: India Exchange Rate, 2004-2008

Year Exchange Rate

($/INR) 2004 0.022062005 0.022672006 0.022072007 0.024182008 0.02282 Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

APPENDIX

India - Beer


CHAPTER 12 APPENDIX

12.1 Methodology

Datamonitor Industry Profiles draw on extensive primary and secondary research, all aggregated, analyzed, and cross-checked and presented in a consistent and accessible style.

Review of in-house databases – Created using 250,000+ industry interviews and consumer surveys and supported by analysis from industry experts using highly complex modeling & forecasting tools, Datamonitor’s in-house databases provide the foundation for all related industry profiles

Preparatory research – We also maintain extensive in-house databases of news, analyst commentary, company profiles and macroeconomic & demographic information, which enable our researchers to build an accurate market overview

Definitions – Market definitions are standardized to allow comparison from country to country. The parameters of each definition are carefully reviewed at the start of the research process to ensure they match the requirements of both the market and our clients

Extensive secondary research activities ensure we are always fully up-to-date with the latest industry events and trends

Datamonitor aggregates and analyzes a number of secondary information sources, including:

- National/Governmental statistics - International data (official international sources) - National and International trade associations - Broker and analyst reports - Company Annual Reports - Business information libraries and databases

Modeling & forecasting tools – Datamonitor has developed powerful tools that allow quantitative and qualitative data to be combined with related macroeconomic and demographic drivers to create market models and forecasts, which can then be refined according to specific competitive, regulatory and demand-related factors

Continuous quality control ensures that our processes and profiles remain focused, accurate and up-to-date

APPENDIX

India - Beer


12.2 Industry Associations

All India Brewers' Association Bangalore, India Tel: 91 80 226 6619 Fax: 91 80 226 9984

12.3 Related Datamonitor Research

Datamonitor Industry Profiles

Beer in Poland

Beer in Portugal

Beer in Russia

Beer in Seweden

Beer in Singapore

Beer in South Africa

Beer in South Korea

Beer in Spain

Beer in Taiwan

Beer in the United Kingdom

Beer in the United States

beer industry profile

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