bear, stearns global transportation conference presentation
TRANSCRIPT
Bear Stearns Global Transportation Conference
Bear Stearns Global Transportation Conference
May 9, 2007May 9, 2007
Kathryn MikellsVice President – Financial Planning & Analysis
United Airlines
Kathryn MikellsVice President – Financial Planning & Analysis
United Airlines
Safe Harbor Statement And Non-GAAP Reconciliation
Safe Harbor Statement And Non-GAAP Reconciliation
The information included in this presentation contains certain statements that are “Forward-Looking Statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties related to the Company’s operations and the business environment in which it operates. Actual results may differ materially from any future results expressed or implied in such Forward-Looking Statements due to numerous factors, many of which are beyond the Company’s control, including factors set forth in the Company’s Form 10-K for 2006 and other subsequent Company reports filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Persons reviewing this presentation are cautioned that the Forward-Looking Statements speak only as of the date made and are not guarantees of future performance. The Company undertakes no obligation to update any Forward-Looking Statements.
Information regarding reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures contained in this presentation is available on the Company's web site at www.united.com/ir
Our Performance AgendaOur Performance Agenda
• Our customer-driven strategy will drive margin leadership
• We are optimizing revenue and successfully controlling costs
• Revitalizing the workforce
• Continuous improvement is increasing efficiency and enhancing the customer experience
• Our customer-driven strategy will drive margin leadership
• We are optimizing revenue and successfully controlling costs
• Revitalizing the workforce
• Continuous improvement is increasing efficiency and enhancing the customer experience
Customers, employees and investors will benefit as we execute against our performance agenda
3.61
3.31 3.823.944.03 3.96
AMR UAUA LCC CAL LUV
Mainline Unit Earnings excluding Fuel Costs (RASM minus CASM ex Fuel)
Twelve Months Ended 3/31/2007
¢/ASM
Sources: Company press releases. All results also exclude special items and regional affiliates. UAUA adjusted results also exclude severance expense and non-cash fresh-start and exit-related impacts
Our Progress Is Reflected In Unit EarningsOur Progress Is Reflected In Unit Earnings
25% 23% 27% 16% 25%TME 1Q07 B/(W) than TME 1Q06
United AdjustedUnited Unadjusted
Safety
CustomerExperience
OperationalEfficiency
Continuous Improvement Will Allow Us To Enhance The Customer Experience While Controlling Costs
And Maintaining The Highest Safety Levels
Continuous Improvement Will Allow Us To Enhance The Customer Experience While Controlling Costs
And Maintaining The Highest Safety Levels
• Improved reliability• Consistent delivery
for customer
• Manpower efficiency (Standard work)
• Vendor partnership• Increased asset utilization• Reduce overall costs
Continuous Improvement
We Are Developing And Implementing New Cost-Effective Initiatives To Drive
Premium Traffic
Upgrades and fees
Check-in Security lines Boarding
Trip protectionContact center
We are rolling out key initiatives over the course of 2007
Airport
Pre and Post Flight
Engaging, Enabling And Aligning Employees
Tools And Equipment
Shared Success
Training
• Business Education
• Customer Service
• Leadership/Performance Management
• Success Sharing– rewards performance against reliability,
customer and financial goals
• Profit Sharing– 15% of adjusted pre-tax earnings
• Refreshed airport ITequipment– Ticket printers– Bag scanners
Profit sharing pays out when annual adjusted pre-tax earnings exceed a threshold of $10 million
11.2811.65 11.56
11.23
9.83
11.37
AMR LCC UAUA CAL LUV
Our Strategy Will Continue To Improve Unit Revenue
Our Strategy Will Continue To Improve Unit Revenue
Mainline RASMTwelve Months Ended 3/31/2007
¢/ASM
8.3% 9.9% 6.7% 6.8% 7.7%
Sources: Company press releases. All results exclude regional affiliates. UAUA results exclude UAFC . UAUA adjusted results exclude non-cash fresh start revenue impacts
United AdjustedUnited Unadjusted
TME 1Q07 B/(W) than TME 1Q06
Fresh Start Items Like Deferred Revenue Accounting Have A Significant Non-Cash Impact
Fresh Start Items Like Deferred Revenue Accounting Have A Significant Non-Cash Impact
~$170 million one-time benefit in 200718 months36 monthsMileage
Expiration
When miles redeemed
Straight-line over three
years
Sale of Miles (Pax Revenue Recognition)
$(107) million
• Lowers current recognition
• Increased Seasonality
Portion of ticket revenue
deferred until mileage
redemption
Total amount recognized when flown
Ticket Revenue Recognition
1Q 2007 Deferred Revenue B/(W) Than 1Q 2007
Incremental Cost
Effect on RevenueAfterBefore
Increases Revenue Volatility with Ongoing Competitive Comparison Disadvantages
• Similar to Air Canada’s Aéroplan, United adopted conservative accounting
Mitigating Inflation By Realizing $400 Million Of Cost Savings Through 2007Mitigating Inflation By Realizing $400 Million Of Cost Savings Through 2007
• Facilities rent• Vendor contract management• Ground handling• Telecom contracts• Outside legal services
• Facilities rent• Vendor contract management• Ground handling• Telecom contracts• Outside legal services
• Annualization of benefit from 1,000+ headcount reduction
• Centralized crew desks• Welfare program compliance• Centralized absence management
• Annualization of benefit from 1,000+ headcount reduction
• Centralized crew desks• Welfare program compliance• Centralized absence management
• Full effect of reduced brand advertising media buys, agency and production
• Full effect of reduced brand advertising media buys, agency and production
• New flight planning system• Block time reduction• Standard work implementation
• New flight planning system• Block time reduction• Standard work implementation
Reducing purchased service costs
Trimming advertising and marketing expenses
Increasing operational efficiencies
Eliminating General and Administrative expense
$135M of the $400M Goal Accomplished in 2006
6.52
7.62 7.62 7.627.47
LUV UAUA CAL AMR LCC
CASM Is Competitive CASM Is Competitive
¢/ASM
Mainline Cost per Available Seat Mile (CASM) Excluding Fuel Twelve Months Ended 3/31/2007
(0.7)% 0.5% (2.5)% (1.2)% (2.8)%
Sources: Company press releases. All results also exclude regional affiliates and special items; UAUA results also excludes UAFC. UAUA adjusted results exclude non-cash fresh-start and exit-related impacts and severance expense.
7.41
United AdjustedUnited Unadjusted
TME 1Q07 B/(W) than TME 1Q06
15.8
12.7
9.5
CAL AMR UAUA
15.8
12.7
9.5
CAL AMR UAUA
EBITDAR Margin (%)Twelve Months Ended 3/31/2007
Sources: Company press releases. All results exclude special items. UAUA results also exclude severance expense.
United’s EBITDAR Margin Appears Lower Than Our Peers
United’s EBITDAR Margin Appears Lower Than Our Peers
Adjusting For Fresh Start And Regional Aircraft Accounting Reveals A Competitive EBITDAR Margin
Adjusting For Fresh Start And Regional Aircraft Accounting Reveals A Competitive EBITDAR Margin
16.3
13.1
2.0
13.2
CAL UAUA AMR
16.3
13.1
2.0
13.2
CAL UAUA AMR
EBITDAR Margin (%)Twelve Months Ended 3/31/2007
• United does not own any regional aircraft
• United regional aircraft rental expense, which is expensed through the Regional Affiliate line, should be added back to EBITDAR
Sources: Company press releases. All results exclude special items and FAS 123R expense. UAUA results also exclude severance expense, non-cash fresh-start and exit-related impacts and aircraft rent expense paid to regional affiliates.
United Adjusted for Regional AircraftUnited Adjusted for Fresh Start and Exit-Related Charges
11.2
Free Cash Flow Metrics Are Not Obscured By Exit Accounting And Are Comparable To PeersFree Cash Flow Metrics Are Not Obscured By
Exit Accounting And Are Comparable To Peers
3.9%
6.4%
7.2%
UAUA AMR CAL
3.9%
6.4%
7.2%
UAUA AMR CAL
Sources: Company press releases. FCF or Free Cash Flow defined as cash flows from operations less capital expenditures. UAUA revenue includes fresh start revenue adjustment
Free Cash Flow/Total Revenue
Twelve Months Ended 3/31/2007
$8.78$7.74
$4.61
UAUA AMR CAL
$8.78$7.74
$4.61
UAUA AMR CAL
Free Cash Flow/Consolidated ASMs$/1,000 ASMs
At The Same Time We Have Significantly Lower Fixed Obligations
At The Same Time We Have Significantly Lower Fixed Obligations
• Limited non-aircraft capex of $550 million in 2007 focused on customer and core airline needs
• United has been capitalizing on opportunities for balance sheet improvement– Limited debt maturities– No material defined benefit pension funding– No aircraft capex
• Using excess cash to pay down debt – Reduced size of exit facility by $1 billion in February – Simultaneously freed up significant collateral
• No current plans to raise capital
• Limited non-aircraft capex of $550 million in 2007 focused on customer and core airline needs
• United has been capitalizing on opportunities for balance sheet improvement– Limited debt maturities– No material defined benefit pension funding– No aircraft capex
• Using excess cash to pay down debt – Reduced size of exit facility by $1 billion in February – Simultaneously freed up significant collateral
• No current plans to raise capital
Our Performance AgendaOur Performance Agenda
• Our customer-driven strategy will drive margin leadership
• We are optimizing revenue and successfully controlling costs
• Revitalizing the workforce
• Continuous improvement is increasing efficiency and enhancing the customer experience
• Our customer-driven strategy will drive margin leadership
• We are optimizing revenue and successfully controlling costs
• Revitalizing the workforce
• Continuous improvement is increasing efficiency and enhancing the customer experience
Customers, employees and investors will benefit as we execute against our performance agenda
APPENDIXAPPENDIX
United Can Wait For the Next-Generation Of Narrowbody Aircraft
United Can Wait For the Next-Generation Of Narrowbody Aircraft
Narrowbodies 25 Years and Older(Cumulative)
3 1538 51 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64
13 30 30 30 30 30 305
2447
74 88 88 88 91 93 95 97 97
5 21 29 36 41 50 55 67420
2832
30 303
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
A/C
B733 B735 B757 A320 A319
Our Replacement Needs For Widebodies Occurs Even LaterOur Replacement Needs For
Widebodies Occurs Even LaterWidebodies 25 Years and Older
(Cumulative)
2 6 10 11 11 12 12 14 19 22 29 30413 21 21 21 21
2125
30 33
4 713
2529
3240
0102030405060708090
100
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
A/C
B747 B767 B777
Non-GAAP To GAAP ReconciliationNon-GAAP To GAAP Reconciliation
Non-GAAP To GAAP ReconciliationsNon-GAAP To GAAP Reconciliations
• The Company believes that the reported non-GAAP financial results provide management and investors a better perspective of the Company’s core business and on-going financial performance and trends by excluding special items, severance, fresh-start items and fuel for comparative purposes.
• The Company believes that the reported non-GAAP financial results provide management and investors a better perspective of the Company’s core business and on-going financial performance and trends by excluding special items, severance, fresh-start items and fuel for comparative purposes.
%($ and ASMs in Millions) 2007 2006 ChangeConsolidated operating revenues 19,248$ 17,929$ Less: Passenger - Regional Affiliates 2,907 2,574Less: UAFC 271 394Mainline operating revenues excl. UAFC 16,070$ 14,961$ Mainline available seat miles 143,142 140,529Mainline RASM excl. UAFC (in cents) 11.23 10.65 5.4%
Mainline operating revenues excl. UAFC $ 16,070 $ 14,961Add: Fresh Start 206 17Mainline operating revenues excl. UAFC & fresh start 16,276$ 14,978$ Mainline RASM excl. UAFC and fresh start (in cents) 11.37 10.66 6.7%
March 31, Twelve months ending
Mainline RASMMainline RASM
Mainline CASM And Unit EarningsMainline CASM And Unit Earnings
%($ and ASMs in Millions; Rates in cents) 2007 2006 ChangeMainline RASM excl. UAFC 11.23 10.65
Total operating expense 18,722$ 18,069$ Less: Regional Affiliates 2,820 2,797Mainline operating expense 15,902$ 15,272$ Less: Fuel 4,798 4,294Less: UAFC 260 387Less: Special items (a) (58) 18Mainline operating expense excl. fuel & special 10,902$ 10,573$ Available Seat Miles (ASM) 143,142 140,529Mainline Cost per ASM (CASM) excl fuel & special 7.62 7.52Mainline Unit Earnings excl. fuel & special 3.61 3.13 15%
Adjusted Mainline RASM 11.37 10.66
Mainline operating expense excl. fuel & special 10,902$ 10,573$ Less: Fresh Start Adjustments & severance (a) 301 99Adjusted Mainline Expenses 10,601$ 10,474$ Available Seat Miles (ASM) 143,142 140,529Adjusted Mainline CASM 7.41 7.45 -0.5%Adjusted Mainline Unit Earnings 3.96 3.21 23%
Mainline CASM & Unit Earnings Excl. Fuel & Special
(a) For TME 3/31/07, special items include the net impact of a $58 million benefit from reorg-related items. TME 3/31/07 adjusted CASM also excludes $22 million for severance. The $18 million special item for TME 3/31/07 relates to an asset impairment charge.
March 31, Twelve months ending
Mainline CASM & Unit Earnings Excl. Fuel, Special, Severance & Fresh-start
1.3%
EBITDAR MarginEBITDAR Margin
($ in Millions)
Twelve months ending
March 31, 2007
Fresh Start & Special (1)
Adjusted (excl. fresh start) TME
1Q07
Regional Affiliates
Adjustments (2)
Reg. Affil. Normalized TME 1Q07
Net Income 96$ 96 96$ Interest Expense 793 793 793Interest Income (273) (273) (273)Taxes (63) (63) (63)Depreciation and amortization 892 892 892Aircraft Rent 410 410 410
Regional affiliates – – 392 392EBITDAR excluding special items & severance 1,819$ 1,819$ 2,211$ Stock Based Compensation – 105 105 105Fresh Start, excl depr, amort, rent, interest – 266 266 266
EBITDAR excluding special, severance & fresh-start 2,190$ 2,582$ Revenues 19,248$ 245 19,493$ 19,493$ EBITDAR Margin (%) 9.5% 11.2% 13.2%
(2) Adjustment for aircraft rent to reflect regional affiliates on an "owned" basis for comparison to our competitors
(1) $266 million of fresh start expenses (credits) include $245 million to revenue for Mileage Plus; $(35) million to expense for Mileage Plus and $56 million for eliminated postretirement plan amortization.
Special Items and Severance (36) (36) (36)
–
$
$
$
$ ($ and ASMs in Millions)
Twelve months ending
March 31, 2007
Cash from operations 1,735Less: capital expenditures 338Free cash flow 1,397
Operating revenues 19,248Add: Fresh-start impact 245Adjusted operating revenues 19,493$ Free cash flow/total revenue 7.2%
ASMs 159,077Free cash flow/1,000 ASMs 8.78$
Free Cash Flow MetricsFree Cash Flow Metrics