bear, stearns global transportation conference presentation

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Bear Stearns Global Transportation Conference Bear Stearns Global Transportation Conference May 9, 2007 May 9, 2007 Kathryn Mikells Vice President – Financial Planning & Analysis United Airlines Kathryn Mikells Vice President – Financial Planning & Analysis United Airlines

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Page 1: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

Bear Stearns Global Transportation Conference

Bear Stearns Global Transportation Conference

May 9, 2007May 9, 2007

Kathryn MikellsVice President – Financial Planning & Analysis

United Airlines

Kathryn MikellsVice President – Financial Planning & Analysis

United Airlines

Page 2: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

Safe Harbor Statement And Non-GAAP Reconciliation

Safe Harbor Statement And Non-GAAP Reconciliation

The information included in this presentation contains certain statements that are “Forward-Looking Statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties related to the Company’s operations and the business environment in which it operates. Actual results may differ materially from any future results expressed or implied in such Forward-Looking Statements due to numerous factors, many of which are beyond the Company’s control, including factors set forth in the Company’s Form 10-K for 2006 and other subsequent Company reports filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Persons reviewing this presentation are cautioned that the Forward-Looking Statements speak only as of the date made and are not guarantees of future performance. The Company undertakes no obligation to update any Forward-Looking Statements.

Information regarding reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures contained in this presentation is available on the Company's web site at www.united.com/ir

Page 3: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

Our Performance AgendaOur Performance Agenda

• Our customer-driven strategy will drive margin leadership

• We are optimizing revenue and successfully controlling costs

• Revitalizing the workforce

• Continuous improvement is increasing efficiency and enhancing the customer experience

• Our customer-driven strategy will drive margin leadership

• We are optimizing revenue and successfully controlling costs

• Revitalizing the workforce

• Continuous improvement is increasing efficiency and enhancing the customer experience

Customers, employees and investors will benefit as we execute against our performance agenda

Page 4: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

3.61

3.31 3.823.944.03 3.96

AMR UAUA LCC CAL LUV

Mainline Unit Earnings excluding Fuel Costs (RASM minus CASM ex Fuel)

Twelve Months Ended 3/31/2007

¢/ASM

Sources: Company press releases. All results also exclude special items and regional affiliates. UAUA adjusted results also exclude severance expense and non-cash fresh-start and exit-related impacts

Our Progress Is Reflected In Unit EarningsOur Progress Is Reflected In Unit Earnings

25% 23% 27% 16% 25%TME 1Q07 B/(W) than TME 1Q06

United AdjustedUnited Unadjusted

Page 5: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

Safety

CustomerExperience

OperationalEfficiency

Continuous Improvement Will Allow Us To Enhance The Customer Experience While Controlling Costs

And Maintaining The Highest Safety Levels

Continuous Improvement Will Allow Us To Enhance The Customer Experience While Controlling Costs

And Maintaining The Highest Safety Levels

• Improved reliability• Consistent delivery

for customer

• Manpower efficiency (Standard work)

• Vendor partnership• Increased asset utilization• Reduce overall costs

Continuous Improvement

Page 6: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

We Are Developing And Implementing New Cost-Effective Initiatives To Drive

Premium Traffic

Upgrades and fees

Check-in Security lines Boarding

Trip protectionContact center

We are rolling out key initiatives over the course of 2007

Airport

Pre and Post Flight

Page 7: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

Engaging, Enabling And Aligning Employees

Tools And Equipment

Shared Success

Training

• Business Education

• Customer Service

• Leadership/Performance Management

• Success Sharing– rewards performance against reliability,

customer and financial goals

• Profit Sharing– 15% of adjusted pre-tax earnings

• Refreshed airport ITequipment– Ticket printers– Bag scanners

Profit sharing pays out when annual adjusted pre-tax earnings exceed a threshold of $10 million

Page 8: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

11.2811.65 11.56

11.23

9.83

11.37

AMR LCC UAUA CAL LUV

Our Strategy Will Continue To Improve Unit Revenue

Our Strategy Will Continue To Improve Unit Revenue

Mainline RASMTwelve Months Ended 3/31/2007

¢/ASM

8.3% 9.9% 6.7% 6.8% 7.7%

Sources: Company press releases. All results exclude regional affiliates. UAUA results exclude UAFC . UAUA adjusted results exclude non-cash fresh start revenue impacts

United AdjustedUnited Unadjusted

TME 1Q07 B/(W) than TME 1Q06

Page 9: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

Fresh Start Items Like Deferred Revenue Accounting Have A Significant Non-Cash Impact

Fresh Start Items Like Deferred Revenue Accounting Have A Significant Non-Cash Impact

~$170 million one-time benefit in 200718 months36 monthsMileage

Expiration

When miles redeemed

Straight-line over three

years

Sale of Miles (Pax Revenue Recognition)

$(107) million

• Lowers current recognition

• Increased Seasonality

Portion of ticket revenue

deferred until mileage

redemption

Total amount recognized when flown

Ticket Revenue Recognition

1Q 2007 Deferred Revenue B/(W) Than 1Q 2007

Incremental Cost

Effect on RevenueAfterBefore

Increases Revenue Volatility with Ongoing Competitive Comparison Disadvantages

• Similar to Air Canada’s Aéroplan, United adopted conservative accounting

Page 10: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

Mitigating Inflation By Realizing $400 Million Of Cost Savings Through 2007Mitigating Inflation By Realizing $400 Million Of Cost Savings Through 2007

• Facilities rent• Vendor contract management• Ground handling• Telecom contracts• Outside legal services

• Facilities rent• Vendor contract management• Ground handling• Telecom contracts• Outside legal services

• Annualization of benefit from 1,000+ headcount reduction

• Centralized crew desks• Welfare program compliance• Centralized absence management

• Annualization of benefit from 1,000+ headcount reduction

• Centralized crew desks• Welfare program compliance• Centralized absence management

• Full effect of reduced brand advertising media buys, agency and production

• Full effect of reduced brand advertising media buys, agency and production

• New flight planning system• Block time reduction• Standard work implementation

• New flight planning system• Block time reduction• Standard work implementation

Reducing purchased service costs

Trimming advertising and marketing expenses

Increasing operational efficiencies

Eliminating General and Administrative expense

$135M of the $400M Goal Accomplished in 2006

Page 11: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

6.52

7.62 7.62 7.627.47

LUV UAUA CAL AMR LCC

CASM Is Competitive CASM Is Competitive

¢/ASM

Mainline Cost per Available Seat Mile (CASM) Excluding Fuel Twelve Months Ended 3/31/2007

(0.7)% 0.5% (2.5)% (1.2)% (2.8)%

Sources: Company press releases. All results also exclude regional affiliates and special items; UAUA results also excludes UAFC. UAUA adjusted results exclude non-cash fresh-start and exit-related impacts and severance expense.

7.41

United AdjustedUnited Unadjusted

TME 1Q07 B/(W) than TME 1Q06

Page 12: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

15.8

12.7

9.5

CAL AMR UAUA

15.8

12.7

9.5

CAL AMR UAUA

EBITDAR Margin (%)Twelve Months Ended 3/31/2007

Sources: Company press releases. All results exclude special items. UAUA results also exclude severance expense.

United’s EBITDAR Margin Appears Lower Than Our Peers

United’s EBITDAR Margin Appears Lower Than Our Peers

Page 13: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

Adjusting For Fresh Start And Regional Aircraft Accounting Reveals A Competitive EBITDAR Margin

Adjusting For Fresh Start And Regional Aircraft Accounting Reveals A Competitive EBITDAR Margin

16.3

13.1

2.0

13.2

CAL UAUA AMR

16.3

13.1

2.0

13.2

CAL UAUA AMR

EBITDAR Margin (%)Twelve Months Ended 3/31/2007

• United does not own any regional aircraft

• United regional aircraft rental expense, which is expensed through the Regional Affiliate line, should be added back to EBITDAR

Sources: Company press releases. All results exclude special items and FAS 123R expense. UAUA results also exclude severance expense, non-cash fresh-start and exit-related impacts and aircraft rent expense paid to regional affiliates.

United Adjusted for Regional AircraftUnited Adjusted for Fresh Start and Exit-Related Charges

11.2

Page 14: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

Free Cash Flow Metrics Are Not Obscured By Exit Accounting And Are Comparable To PeersFree Cash Flow Metrics Are Not Obscured By

Exit Accounting And Are Comparable To Peers

3.9%

6.4%

7.2%

UAUA AMR CAL

3.9%

6.4%

7.2%

UAUA AMR CAL

Sources: Company press releases. FCF or Free Cash Flow defined as cash flows from operations less capital expenditures. UAUA revenue includes fresh start revenue adjustment

Free Cash Flow/Total Revenue

Twelve Months Ended 3/31/2007

$8.78$7.74

$4.61

UAUA AMR CAL

$8.78$7.74

$4.61

UAUA AMR CAL

Free Cash Flow/Consolidated ASMs$/1,000 ASMs

Page 15: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

At The Same Time We Have Significantly Lower Fixed Obligations

At The Same Time We Have Significantly Lower Fixed Obligations

• Limited non-aircraft capex of $550 million in 2007 focused on customer and core airline needs

• United has been capitalizing on opportunities for balance sheet improvement– Limited debt maturities– No material defined benefit pension funding– No aircraft capex

• Using excess cash to pay down debt – Reduced size of exit facility by $1 billion in February – Simultaneously freed up significant collateral

• No current plans to raise capital

• Limited non-aircraft capex of $550 million in 2007 focused on customer and core airline needs

• United has been capitalizing on opportunities for balance sheet improvement– Limited debt maturities– No material defined benefit pension funding– No aircraft capex

• Using excess cash to pay down debt – Reduced size of exit facility by $1 billion in February – Simultaneously freed up significant collateral

• No current plans to raise capital

Page 16: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

Our Performance AgendaOur Performance Agenda

• Our customer-driven strategy will drive margin leadership

• We are optimizing revenue and successfully controlling costs

• Revitalizing the workforce

• Continuous improvement is increasing efficiency and enhancing the customer experience

• Our customer-driven strategy will drive margin leadership

• We are optimizing revenue and successfully controlling costs

• Revitalizing the workforce

• Continuous improvement is increasing efficiency and enhancing the customer experience

Customers, employees and investors will benefit as we execute against our performance agenda

Page 17: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

APPENDIXAPPENDIX

Page 18: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

United Can Wait For the Next-Generation Of Narrowbody Aircraft

United Can Wait For the Next-Generation Of Narrowbody Aircraft

Narrowbodies 25 Years and Older(Cumulative)

3 1538 51 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64

13 30 30 30 30 30 305

2447

74 88 88 88 91 93 95 97 97

5 21 29 36 41 50 55 67420

2832

30 303

30

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

A/C

B733 B735 B757 A320 A319

Page 19: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

Our Replacement Needs For Widebodies Occurs Even LaterOur Replacement Needs For

Widebodies Occurs Even LaterWidebodies 25 Years and Older

(Cumulative)

2 6 10 11 11 12 12 14 19 22 29 30413 21 21 21 21

2125

30 33

4 713

2529

3240

0102030405060708090

100

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

A/C

B747 B767 B777

Page 20: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

Non-GAAP To GAAP ReconciliationNon-GAAP To GAAP Reconciliation

Page 21: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

Non-GAAP To GAAP ReconciliationsNon-GAAP To GAAP Reconciliations

• The Company believes that the reported non-GAAP financial results provide management and investors a better perspective of the Company’s core business and on-going financial performance and trends by excluding special items, severance, fresh-start items and fuel for comparative purposes.

• The Company believes that the reported non-GAAP financial results provide management and investors a better perspective of the Company’s core business and on-going financial performance and trends by excluding special items, severance, fresh-start items and fuel for comparative purposes.

Page 22: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

%($ and ASMs in Millions) 2007 2006 ChangeConsolidated operating revenues 19,248$ 17,929$ Less: Passenger - Regional Affiliates 2,907 2,574Less: UAFC 271 394Mainline operating revenues excl. UAFC 16,070$ 14,961$ Mainline available seat miles 143,142 140,529Mainline RASM excl. UAFC (in cents) 11.23 10.65 5.4%

Mainline operating revenues excl. UAFC $ 16,070 $ 14,961Add: Fresh Start 206 17Mainline operating revenues excl. UAFC & fresh start 16,276$ 14,978$ Mainline RASM excl. UAFC and fresh start (in cents) 11.37 10.66 6.7%

March 31, Twelve months ending

Mainline RASMMainline RASM

Page 23: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

Mainline CASM And Unit EarningsMainline CASM And Unit Earnings

%($ and ASMs in Millions; Rates in cents) 2007 2006 ChangeMainline RASM excl. UAFC 11.23 10.65

Total operating expense 18,722$ 18,069$ Less: Regional Affiliates 2,820 2,797Mainline operating expense 15,902$ 15,272$ Less: Fuel 4,798 4,294Less: UAFC 260 387Less: Special items (a) (58) 18Mainline operating expense excl. fuel & special 10,902$ 10,573$ Available Seat Miles (ASM) 143,142 140,529Mainline Cost per ASM (CASM) excl fuel & special 7.62 7.52Mainline Unit Earnings excl. fuel & special 3.61 3.13 15%

Adjusted Mainline RASM 11.37 10.66

Mainline operating expense excl. fuel & special 10,902$ 10,573$ Less: Fresh Start Adjustments & severance (a) 301 99Adjusted Mainline Expenses 10,601$ 10,474$ Available Seat Miles (ASM) 143,142 140,529Adjusted Mainline CASM 7.41 7.45 -0.5%Adjusted Mainline Unit Earnings 3.96 3.21 23%

Mainline CASM & Unit Earnings Excl. Fuel & Special

(a) For TME 3/31/07, special items include the net impact of a $58 million benefit from reorg-related items. TME 3/31/07 adjusted CASM also excludes $22 million for severance. The $18 million special item for TME 3/31/07 relates to an asset impairment charge.

March 31, Twelve months ending

Mainline CASM & Unit Earnings Excl. Fuel, Special, Severance & Fresh-start

1.3%

Page 24: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

EBITDAR MarginEBITDAR Margin

($ in Millions)

Twelve months ending

March 31, 2007

Fresh Start & Special (1)

Adjusted (excl. fresh start) TME

1Q07

Regional Affiliates

Adjustments (2)

Reg. Affil. Normalized TME 1Q07

Net Income 96$ 96 96$ Interest Expense 793 793 793Interest Income (273) (273) (273)Taxes (63) (63) (63)Depreciation and amortization 892 892 892Aircraft Rent 410 410 410

Regional affiliates – – 392 392EBITDAR excluding special items & severance 1,819$ 1,819$ 2,211$ Stock Based Compensation – 105 105 105Fresh Start, excl depr, amort, rent, interest – 266 266 266

EBITDAR excluding special, severance & fresh-start 2,190$ 2,582$ Revenues 19,248$ 245 19,493$ 19,493$ EBITDAR Margin (%) 9.5% 11.2% 13.2%

(2) Adjustment for aircraft rent to reflect regional affiliates on an "owned" basis for comparison to our competitors

(1) $266 million of fresh start expenses (credits) include $245 million to revenue for Mileage Plus; $(35) million to expense for Mileage Plus and $56 million for eliminated postretirement plan amortization.

Special Items and Severance (36) (36) (36)

$

Page 25: Bear, Stearns Global Transportation Conference Presentation

$

$

$ ($ and ASMs in Millions)

Twelve months ending

March 31, 2007

Cash from operations 1,735Less: capital expenditures 338Free cash flow 1,397

Operating revenues 19,248Add: Fresh-start impact 245Adjusted operating revenues 19,493$ Free cash flow/total revenue 7.2%

ASMs 159,077Free cash flow/1,000 ASMs 8.78$

Free Cash Flow MetricsFree Cash Flow Metrics