barioni mitigation options and actions in brazil agriculture july 2012
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Mitigation options and actions in Brazilian Agriculture
Development of the Brazilian Agricultural NAMAs
Luis Gustavo Barioni Embrapa Agricultural Informatics
CCAFS – FAO NAMAs Workshop, Rome 16/07/2012
Historical Context
Identifying the Main Sources of GHG
Adapted from the 1st Brazilian National Inventory (Ministry of Science and Technology, 2004)
Mainly conversion of native areas into agricultural land
1994
Identifying Potential Sinks
Increasing Soil Carbon by improving grasslands Embrapa Informática Agropecuária - Laboratório de Modelagem Agroambiental
Adubação Quantificação C
Referência Bioma Estado Cidade Local
Precipitação
média anual
(mm)
Tipo soloUso da
Propriedade
Ocupação
anteriorTratamento
Idade
Tratamento
(anos)
Tempo
desmatame
nto (anos)
Classificação Calagem Plantio CoberturaTipo de
metodologia
Método
SILVA, et al.
(2004)Cerrado DF Planaltina
EMBRAPA-
Cerrados1500
Latossolo
Vermelho
Escuro
Argiloso
Campos
Experimentais
Campos
Experiment
ais
Panicum maximum 7 pastagem Não Não Não Indireto
Nelson &
Sommers,
1982
SILVA, et al.
(2004)Cerrado DF Planaltina
EMBRAPA-
Cerrados1500
Latossolo
Vermelho
Escuro
Argiloso
Campos
Experimentais
Campos
Experiment
ais
Brachiaria decumbens 3 pastagem Sim Sim Não Indireto
Nelson &
Sommers,
1982
SILVA, et al.
(2004)Cerrado DF Planaltina
EMBRAPA-
Cerrados1500
Latossolo
Vermelho
Escuro
Argiloso
Campos
Experimentais
Campos
Experiment
ais
Brachiaria brizantha +
Stylosanthes
guianensis
3 pastagem Sim Sim Não Indireto
Nelson &
Sommers,
1982
SILVA, et al.
(2004)Cerrado DF Planaltina
EMBRAPA-
Cerrados1500
Latossolo
Vermelho
Escuro
Argiloso
Campos
Experimentais
Campos
Experiment
ais
Andropogon gayanus +
Neonotonia wightii +
Centrosema
brasilianum
3 pastagem Sim Sim Não Indireto
Nelson &
Sommers,
1982
SILVA, et al.
(2004)Cerrado DF Planaltina
EMBRAPA-
Cerrados1500
Latossolo
Vermelho
Escuro
Argiloso
Campos
Experimentais
Campos
Experiment
ais
B. brizantha (s/ pastejo,
p/ produção de
sementes)
4 pastagem Sim Sim Sim Indireto
Nelson &
Sommers,
1982
SILVA, et al.
(2004)Cerrado DF Planaltina
EMBRAPA-
Cerrados1500
Latossolo
Vermelho
Escuro
Argiloso
Campos
Experimentais
Campos
Experiment
ais
Paspalum atratum (s/
pastejo, p/ produção
de sementes)
4 pastagem Sim Sim Sim Indireto
Nelson &
Sommers,
1982
SILVA, et al.
(2004)Cerrado DF Planaltina
EMBRAPA-
Cerrados1500
Latossolo
Vermelho
Escuro
Argiloso
Campos
Experimentais
Campos
Experiment
ais
Pastagem nativa −vegetação
naturalNão Não Não Indireto
Nelson &
Sommers,
1982
RANGEL;
SILVA (2007)
Transição
Mata
Atlântica
Cerrado
MG Lavras
Universidade
Federal de
Lavras1530
Latossolo
Vermelho
distroférrico
Campos
Experimentais
Lavoura de
café Eucalipto 29 agricultura ? Sim ? Indireto
Yeomans &
Bremner,
1988
RANGEL;
SILVA (2007)
Transição
Mata
Atlântica
Cerrado
MG Lavras
Universidade
Federal de
Lavras1530
Latossolo
Vermelho
distroférrico
Campos
Experimentais
Lavoura de
café Pinus sp. 29 agricultura ? Sim ? Indireto
Yeomans &
Bremner,
1988
Identifying Potential Sinks
↑C Stocks
CO2 +N N2O
↑Stocking Rate
CH4
80% reduction in Amazon conversion + 40% reduction in Cerrado (Savanna) conversion
Evaluating Mitigation Options
Km2 yr-1
5 yr target level Prodes data
avg 1996 -2005
simulation
Evaluating Mitigation Options
Stocking Rates (actual/grazing potential, %) 1. Is there enough low productivity grasslands that are suitable for improvement?
Evaluating Mitigation Options
2. Is there demand for beef and/or for land that justify pasture improvement?
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (Jan 2008)
Product 2006/2007 2016/2017 % Increase
Soybeans (M ton) 55.55 73.73 33%
Rice (M ton) 11.27 13.13 17%
Corn (M ton) 48.32 64.12 33%
Sugar (M ton) 30.71 42.29 38%
Etanol (M l) 17.6 37.7 114%
Evaluating Mitigation Options
Land Area Land Saved
year (106ha) baseline recovered (106ha) Invest Maint Total
1 1.9 104.48 91.60 3.80 2175 584.8 2,759.80
2 3.8 104.48 78.72 7.60 2175 1169.6 3,344.60
3 5.7 104.48 65.84 11.40 2175 1754.4 3,929.40
4 7.6 104.48 52.96 15.20 2175 2339.2 4,514.20
5 9.5 104.48 40.07 19.00 2175 2924 5,099.00
6 11.4 104.48 27.19 22.80 2175 3508.8 5,683.80
7 13.3 104.48 14.31 26.60 2175 4093.6 6,268.60
8 15.2 104.48 1.43 30.40 2175 4678.4 6,853.40
9 17.1 104.48 -11.45 34.20 2175 5263.2 7,438.20
10 19.0 104.48 -24.33 38.00 2175 5848 8,023.00
Total 21,750 32,164 53,914
Emissions (MMTCO2-e ha-1 yr-1) Aditional Cost (106 R$ yr-1)
Statewide Universities
State Extension Institutes
National Plan for Climate
Change - Law 12.187
Cerrado Deforestation
Agriculture
Energy Efficiency
Charcoal for Still Industry
Other Sectorial Plans
Amazon Deforestation
Sectorial Plans of Mitigation and Adaptation
Brazilian Climate Change (FBMC)
1.Pasture Recovery 2.Crop-Livestock-Forestry Integration 3.No-Tillage Agricuture 4.Biological Nitrigen Fixation 5.Planted Forests 6.Treatment of Animal Residues
Presidency Office
Ministries
Sector representatives
Nationwide Embrapa
ABC Plan Brazil’s Policy to Develope a Low-Carbon Emission Agriculture
Technology Commitment*
(area increase/use)
Mitigation Potential
(million Mg CO2 e)
Recovering Pastures1 15,0 million ha 83 a 104
Crop-Livestock-Forest Integration2 4,0 million ha 18 a 22
No-Tillage System 8,0 million ha 16 a 20
Biological Nitrogen Fixation 5,5 million ha 10
Planted Forests 3,0 million ha -
Treatment of Animal Residues 4,4 million m3 6,9
Total 133,9 a 162,9
How could we refine the plan?
• Developing regional evaluations of mitigation options potential and costs
• Reducing uncertainties on the magnitude of mitigation actions (applying LCA methods)
• Running systemic evaluations on the impacts of land use change
