Multi hazard Risk Assessment on HumaMulti-hazard Risk Assessment on HumaB i Li 1 W i Baoyin Liu1 , Wei

1 School of Earth and Environment Leeds U1. School of Earth and Environment, Leeds U2 St t K L b t f E th S f P d R2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resour

d h d lIntroduction MethodologyIntroductionD fi iti l h d k d ff f h d

MethodologyDefinition: Multi-hazard risk assessment puts different types of hazards into a system for comprehensive evaluation, which not only take into Probability of single-hazy p yaccount the characteristics of the single hazardous events , but also their

y f gg ,

mutual interactions and interrelations. The aim of multi-hazard risk Take one city as an example, mutual interactions and interrelations. The aim of multi hazard risk assessment is to have the overall view of the effects or impacts by assessing

y p ,is set as deaths caused by typassessment is to have the overall view of the effects or impacts by assessing

and mapping the expected loss due to the occurrence of various natural is set as deaths caused by typyear from 1950 to 2010 Si is sand mapping the expected loss due to the occurrence of various natural

hazards on the social environmental and economic settings in a given areayear from 1950 to 2010, Si is ssize in the corresponding yeahazards on the social, environmental and economic settings in a given area. size in the corresponding yeaaffected index domain is defiaffected index domain is defiMethod Hazards Formulation

N l H d E h k T h ( )

n n n

R f H V E Category 1 / ( 1, 2i i iT t S i …Natural Hazard Index

Earthquake, Typhoon, Flood Volcano

1 1 1

( )i i i

i i i

R f H V E

Category 1The typhoon affected index i

Index (Munich Re 2003)

Flood, Volcano, Forest fire Chilling

n n ( )n n n

i i iR f H V E The typhoon affected index imeasure the relative loss Wi

(Munich Re, 2003) Forest fire, Chilling ESPON multi-hazard N t l d ( )

n n

i iR f H V 1 1 1( , , )i i i

i i iR f H V E

measure the relative loss. Withe accuracy requirement of tapproach(Schmidt- Natural and

Technological Hazards 1 1i i the accuracy requirement of tthe population death index s

pp (Thomé, 2006) Technological Hazards

n n

the population death index s

Total Place Hurricane, Tornado, Fl d E th k

1 1

( )i i

i i

R f H V

,1 2 20{t t tU u u u …Vulnerability Index Flood, Earthquake,

Wildfire Winter storm 1 1i i ,1 2 20{t t tU u u uThat means 0 to 200 deaths p

(SCEMDOAG, 2006) Wildfire, Winter storm, Drought That means 0 to 200 deaths p

caused by typhoonM h d H d F l i

Drought

C t 2caused by typhoon.Method Hazards Formulation

( , , )n

i i iR f H V E Category 2 (1( ) [

iTf

JRC–Multi-risk A h (JRC 2004)

Natural and T h l i l H d 1i

( ) exp[22

i jtf uh

Approach (JRC, 2004) Technological Hazards

n

( )n

i i iR f H V E Natural Disaster ( ll

Earthquakes, Volcano, d l d l d

1

( , , )i i i

i

R f H V E

1( , , )i i i

iR f H V E

( )m

i iC f u ( )( )

i jti

f uu (q u

Hotspots (Dilley et l 2005)

Landslide, Flood, D ht C l 1i

1( )i i jt

jC f u

( )i jti

uC

( jtq ual., 2005) Drought, CycloneEarthquake Landslide

n

iR H p(ujt) is the probability distribDDRM multi-risk

h

Earthquake, Landslide, Industrial accident,

1

i

i

R H

p p ydeaths per million people cauapproach

(Fleischhauer 2005)

Industrial accident, Forest fire, Car accident, p p p(Fleischhauer, 2005) Flood, Dam collapse.

The results calculated by those methods can compare the relative danger degree between different areas better but cannot reflect the real risk gsituation in these areas without calculating probability and exceeding Probability of multi hazg p y gprobability of the risk. region. Hence, in this paper, exceeded probability

Probability of multi-hazprobability of the risk. region. Hence, in this paper, exceeded probability distribution of multi-hazard risk was calculated based on information D th d b lti hdistribution of multi-hazard risk was calculated based on information diffusion

Deaths caused by multi-hazadiffusion.

jm jt jfu u u jm jt jfu u u

Study Area Probability distribution of deStudy AreaWith f 99 600

ymulti-hazard are:

With an area of 99,600 sq km (1% of the country ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )p u p u p u u u u sq.km (1% of the country area) and a population

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

(0) ( 0) (1) ( 1) (jm jt jf jt jf jmp u p u p u u u u

area) and a population about 85 million (6 5% of the

(0) ( 0) (1) ( 1) (jm jmp p u p p u p …

about 85 million (6.5% of the country population) Multi-hazard risk exceeding country population). g

human life are:17.8% of GDP, 22% of

human life are:.8% o GD , % o

financial revenue, and jmu,34.8% of export trade. ( ) (

jm

jm jmP u p up0

( ) (jm jmk

p

Typhoons and floods are main disasters.

n Life in the Yangtze River Delta Regionn Life in the Yangtze River Delta Regiong g X 2 Yi Li Si 1 Xu2, Yim Lim Siu1

University Leeds LS2 9JT United Kingdom University, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom E l B iji N l U i it B iji 100875 Chirce Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

lResultsResults

zard risk :

ti (i=1,2, …, 61) i ( , , , )phoon in each phoon in each set as population set as population ar Typhoon In the 3 simulated risk ar. Typhoon ined as: event return periods, ined as: p

Hangzhou, Ningbo and 61)…

g , gZhoushan are identified at

s used to Zhoushan are identified at higher risk while Shanghai s used to

th considering higher risk while Shanghai, Wuxi and Nanjing have th considering

the calculation Wuxi and Nanjing have relatively lower risk in the calculation,

elect as:relatively lower risk in t f lif lelect as: terms of life loss.

01 }t01 }tper million people per million people

2)]jtu

2 ]2

jt

h

) ( )n

i u( )

( ) jtq up u

1) ( )i jt

iu

( )jtp uQ

bution of 0 to 200 used by flood.y

zard risk :zard risk :

d ard are:

eaths caused by y

10 t i d( 1) (1) ( 0) (0) 20 t i d 50 t i d10 years return period( 1) (1) ( 0) (0)jm jmu p p u p 20 years return period 50 years return periodprobability on p y

ConclusionConclusionExceeded probability distribution of multi-hazard risk on human life was

)m

Exceeded probability distribution of multi-hazard risk on human life was calculated The results can reflect the real risk situation so provide the government)m calculated. The results can reflect the real risk situation so provide the government

f t k di t iti ti l i f i ’ di t i k d ti dreference to make disaster mitigation planning for region’s disaster risk reduction, and h l k di li f d f d B h d b k i t l help to make a proper disaster relief and rescue fund. But the drawback is mutual

b d ff h d l dinteractions between different hazards are neglected.