bancosta weekly market report€¦ · the market in cont increased on handies and remained...

Week 10/2020 (02 Mar – 06 Mar)

Comment: Australia’s iron ore exports in 2019

weeklymarketreport

China P.R.80%

Japan8%

S. Korea6%

Taiwan, CN2%

ASEAN2%

EU0%

Others2%

Australia Ore Exports by Dest. in Jan-Dec 2019 (mar 2020 ; source: refinitiv ; % of export volume)

685

7253

21 6 2 1 10

687

7353

20 8 2 9 7

697

67 5420 12 1 0

18

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

China P.R. Japan S. Korea Taiwan, CN ASEAN EU India Others

mln

to

nn

es

Australia - Iron Ore Exports by Destination in Jan-Dec(mar 2020 ; source: refinitiv ; seaborne only ; in mln tonnes)

2017 (1-12) 2018 (1-12) 2019 (1-12)

In the 12 months of calendar 2019,Australia exported 858.2 mlntonnes of iron ore, according tovessel tracking data from Refinitiv.

This represents a decrease of -0.2%year-on-year, compared to the859.8 mln tonnes exported incalendar 2018, i.e. essentiallyunchanged from the previous year.

This is quite surprising, given howturbulent a year it was for the ironore markets.

The Brumadinho dam disaster inBrazil in January 2019 led tosignificant shortages of iron ore onthe market, and led to a spike iniron ore prices, which essentiallydoubled between Jan and Jun.

One would have expectedAustralian miners to capitalise onthis opportunity, but a mix oflimited spare capacity, weather-related disruption in North-WestAustralia, and poor demand fromtraditional buyers have preventedany significant gains in volumes.

In fact, export volumes in the firstquarter of 2019 were down by asmuch as -7.5% year-on-year, to189.9 mln tonnes.

The main problem was the hit byTropical Cyclone Veronica in March2019. In preparation for passage ofVeronica, major shipping ports onthe Pilbara coastline were forced

to cease operations in the interestsof safety.

The port of Port Hedland, the mostvaluable export hub in Australiaand one of the largest iron oreloading ports in the world, wasclosed on 22 March, withoperations only resuming nearlyfour days later.

Rio Tinto's Cape Lambert portwharf also sustained damage fromwaves generated by the cyclone,and repairs to the company's RobeRiver sorting facility following a fireearlier in the year were delayedduring the event.

In March 2019, Australia managedto export just 57.6 mln tonnes ofiron ore, down -18.6% year-on-year compared to the same monthlast year.

Exports have been steadilyrecovering since then.

In the third quarter of 2019,Australia exported 219.1 mlntonnes of iron ore, which was+3.2% compared to the sameperiod in 2018.

In the fourth quarter of 2019,Australia exported 224.8 mlntonnes, up +5.8% year-on-year.

In terms of trade patterns, thingshave not changed too much.

China remains by far the dominant

destination, accounting for 81.2%of all exports of Australian iron orein 2019. This is actually up from a80.1% share in 2018.

Total volumes to China increasedby +1.4% in 2019 to 696.7 mlntonnes.

Volumes also increased to SouthKorea, by +2.2% year-on-year to54.3 mln tonnes, and to Taiwan by+1.1% year-on-year to 20.3 mlntonnes.

Exports to ASEAN countries surgedlast year, by +49.4% year-on-yearto 12.1 mln tonnes. This included4.6 mln tonnes to Vietnam, and 4.4mln tonnes to Indonesia.

On the other hand, exports toJapan declined sharply, by -7.9%year-on-year to 67.1 mln tonnes.Japan now accounts for 7.8% oftotal Australian iron ore exports.

Finally, shipments to Indiacompletely dried up, with thesurge seen in 2018 (9 mln tonnes)proving to be a flash in the pan.

What about 2020? It doesn’t lookgood at the moment.

In January-February 2020 Australiashipped 126.4 mln tonnes of ironore, down -4.0% year-on-year.

Shipments to China, at 101.9 mlntonnes, are -5.2% year-on-year.

COMMENT MARKET REPORT – WEEK 48/2019 2COMMENT 2

AUSTRALIA’S IRON ORE EXPORTS IN 2019

MARKET REPORT – WEEK 10/2020

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

BPI 82 TC and Kamsarmax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BPI TC

Unit 06-Mar 28-Feb W-o-W Y-o-Y

BPI 74 TC Avg. usd/day 8,274 6,811 +21.5% +11.0%

BPI 82 TC Avg. usd/day 9,610 8,174 +17.6% +4.4%

P1_82 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 9,090 6,305 +44.2% +35.8%

P2_82 Skaw-Gib Trip F. East usd/day 18,577 15,850 +17.2% +27.5%

P3_82 Pacific r/v usd/day 7,538 6,754 +11.6% -26.0%

1 Yr TC Period Panamax usd/day 10,000 9,500 +5.3% +0.0%

1 Yr TC Period Kamsarmax usd/day 11,500 11,000 +4.5% +0.0%

0

7,000

14,000

21,000

28,000

35,000

42,000

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

BCI TC and Capesize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BCI TC


BCI TC Avg. usd/day 2,542 2,274 +11.8% -40.4%

C8 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 3,210 2,240 +43.3% -32.2%

C14 China-Brazil r/v usd/day 2,224 2,436 -8.7% -49.2%

C10 Pacific r/v usd/day 3,364 3,550 -5.2% +7.9%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 14,500 14,000 +3.6% +26.1%

Mixed views on the Capesizemarket: 5TC average gained$300/d although the two mainroutes, Tubarao-Qingdao and WAustralia-Qingdao, were still underpressure and kept on decreasing.Tubarao-Qingdao route lost$0.70/mt from Friday to Fridayclosing the week at $11.85/mt:even lower fixtures were seenbetween Thursday and Friday,based on first half April laycan.Saldanha Bay-Qingdao route was in

free fall as well and closed theweek at $9.20/mt, with somefixtures reported at $9/mt forsecond half March laycan. WAustralia-Qingdao route followedthe same path going from$5.20/mt to $4.90/mt, losingprogressively almost $0.10/mt perday on 20th/25th March laycan.Transpacific RV route was stillmaintaining its levels and closedthe week at $3,400/d. In theAtlantic basin, the market was

quite stable until Thursday when itwas reported a higher fixture onBolivar-Rotterdam route at mid$6/mt: this number brought up TARV rates at $3,000/d (after gaining$700/d) and it also gave a push toFronthaul rates that reachedalmost $15,000/d. Also thebackhaul was slightly better and itgained $400/d. Not much activityreported on period.

CHARTERING 3

DRY CARGOCAPESIZE MARKET

PANAMAX MARKETQuiet start of week: in the ECSAmmarket were seen some inspiringnumbers fixed on an aps basis,despite the weak amount of TAnews received. In the areahowever remained good sentimentand expectations of a healthierlevel of fixtures. A 78,000 dwt unitwas fixed for a trip to Spore/Japanat $14,000/d + 400,000 bb andfrom the Baltic basin a 83,000 dwtunit with a 80,000 mt coal cargo(10% in charterer’s option) loadedat Ust-Luga with Rotterdam

destination was fixed at $6.25/mt.In the Pacific basin, Australianmineral cargoes continuedsupporting the market thanks tosome improved numbers. A 81,000dwt unit was fixed for a NoPac RVat $7,000/d and a 76,000 dwt unitwas fixed at $4,000/d for a trip viaIndonesia with redely India. TheFronthaul grain market was still themajor driver, but in the ECSAmbasin appeared also some TAmineral activities in addition toseveral healthy Fronthaul fixtures.

The market in Asia remained quietwhile it was very active during thesecond half of the week: largegains were made on the Atlantictrades in both TA and Fronthauls.A 73,000 dwt unit passing Sporewas fixed at $8,500/d for a tct viaECSAm with redely Spore/Japanrange and another 75,000 dwt unitwas fixed at $8,300/d. Asia wasremarkably quiet in comparison,with some charterers reducingtheir bids.


The market in Cont increased onHandies and remained basicallyunchanged on larger sizes. Modern35,000 dwt were fixed around$11,000/d on Cont-E Med tripswith scrap basis dely Cont and30/35 days duration. On Fronthaulssimilar tonnage was achieving$16,500/d basis to Spore/Jpn.Tess58 units were fixed around$13,000/d for Cont-E Med tripsand around $20,000/d onfronthauls to Spore/Jpn.Despite a longer list of tonnage, in

BSea and Med the sentimentincreased especially for larger unitsand an Ultramax was fixed from EMed to US EC at $9,500/d, around$2,000/d higher than the previousweek.

From USG larger units enjoyed apositive week in terms of volumesand slightly higher rates. Supramaxwere fixing mid/high $14,000/d forTA RV and Ultramax premium wasaround $2,000/d. On Fronthaulrates were around $20,000/d forSupramax and around mid$20,000s/d on Ultramax. OnHandies rates increased thanks to agood level of demand and32/35,000 dwt were getting$9/10,000/d for TA RV whilst36/39,000 dwt were around$11/12,000/d. From ECSAm themarket remained on an uptrendand all routes and sizes recorded

higher rates. Handysize toCont/Med increased to $10,500/dfrom $9,000/d of the previousweek, trips to F East were fixedaround $16,000/d some $1,500/dhigher than the previous week. Notmany fixtures reported on Brazilcoastal trips because owners ideaswere around $11,000/d whilstcharterers were still in the low$9,000s/d, rates are expectedaround $10,000/d at the time ofwriting. From the area, Supramaxand Ultramax units were on anupward trajectory but is difficult toassess a very precise number sincemany fixtures were reported at

very different levels: a 58,000 dwtwas fixed to Algeria around$16,400/d and a 63,000 dwt got$15,000/d basis dely aps Argentinafor trip to Egypt and $14,000/d fora trip to Continent. Our assessmentis around $16,000/d for Supramaxand $17,000/d for Ultramax toMed and some $1,000/d less toCont. Tess58 were getting$13,500/d + 350,000 bb to F Eastwhilst Ultramax were around$14,500/d + 450,000 bb. Ownerswere still trying to push the markethigher especially for trips to China.

CHARTERING 4

SUPRAMAX & HANDYSIZE MARKET

US ATLANTIC SOUTH AMERICA


N EUROPE MEDITERRANEAN

INDIA S AFRICAThe market kept pushing acrossthe whole area. From MEG a56,000 dwt open Kuwait was fixedto WCI around $7,000/d. At theend of the week a 51,000 dwt washeard around $9,000/d basis delydop MEG and a 53,000 dwt gotclose to $10,000/d on a similar trip.Period rates from WCI remained onan uptrend and a 63,000 dwtachieved mid $10,000s/d levelsearly in the week and another

63,000 dwt from ECI got mid/high$11,000s/d. From ECI a number ofSupramax were heard around$9,000/d for ECI iron ore trade toChina early in the week; towardsthe end of the week rates reached$10,500/d levels for Supramax.Rates from SAfr seemed to plateauwith Supramax rates remainingaround mid $11,000/d + 150,000bb to MEG/WCI and a smallpremium to ECI. Ultramax were

fixed around $12,000/d + $200,000bb to India and a small premium toSE Asia.

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

BHSI 28 TC and Handysize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BHSI TC

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

BSI TC and Supramax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BSI TC

HANDYSIZE Unit 06-Mar 28-Feb W-o-W Y-o-Y

BHSI_28 TC Avg. usd/day 4,326 3,865 +11.9% -29.2%

BHSI_38 TC Avg. usd/day 6,292 5,831 +7.9% -20.4%

HS2_38 Skaw/Pass-US usd/day 6,879 5,925 +16.1% -3.5%

HS3_38 ECSAm-Skaw/Pass usd/day 10,489 9,872 +6.3% +3.6%

HS4_38 USG-Skaw/Pass usd/day 9,638 8,847 +8.9% +4.2%

HS5_38 SE Asia-Spore/Japan usd/day 4,328 4,241 +2.1% -44.0%

HS6_38 Pacific RV usd/day 4,141 3,988 +3.8% -43.5%

1 Year TC Period 32,000 dwt usd/day 7,150 7,000 +2.1% -20.6%

1 Year TC Period 38,000 dwt usd/day 8,250 7,000 +17.9% n.a.

SUPRAMAX Unit 06-Mar 28-Feb W-o-W Y-o-Y

BSI TC Avg. usd/day 7,564 6,667 +13.5% -13.7%

S4A_58 USG-Skaw/Pass usd/day 13,856 13,088 +5.9% +34.2%

S1C_58 USG-China/S Jpn usd/day 20,825 20,319 +2.5% +24.7%

S9_58 WAF-ECSA-Med usd/day 7,689 5,554 +38.4% +30.2%

S1B_58 Canakkale-FEast usd/day 18,279 18,246 +0.2% +18.9%

S2_58 N China Aus/Pac RV usd/day 6,114 5,171 +18.2% -32.3%

S10_58 S China-Indo RV usd/day 4,800 3,602 +33.3% -47.4%

1 Year TC Period Supramax usd/day 9,500 9,000 +5.6% -5.0%

1 Year TC Period Ultramax usd/day 10,750 10,000 +7.5% -2.3%

CHARTERING 5

SUPRAMAX & HANDYSIZE MARKET

FAR EAST PACIFIC

Despite the negative impact ofCovid-19, the market in F East keptincreasing both on Supramax andHandysize units.Supramax rates increased byaround $1,000/d, Handysize ratesslightly less. A 55,000 dwt with delyPhilippines was fixed at $8,500/dfor a trip to EC India and $8,000/din option to WC India. A similar unit

with dely Indonesia got around$9,000/d for a trip to Vietnam anda 57,000 dwt with same dely wasfixed at $8,100/d to Thailand withan option to WC India at $6,700/d.A 56,000 dwt with dely Sporeachieved $8,500/d for a trip viaMaputo to China.On Handies a 42,000 dwt with delyVietnam was reported at $5,500/d

to N China with clinker.


0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

Handysize Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000


Supramax Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


Panamax Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

9,000

18,000

27,000

36,000

45,000


Capesize Forward Curve (usd/day)

CAPESIZE Unit 06-Mar 28-Feb W-o-WPremium/

Discount

Mar (20) usd/day 3,597 4,388 -18.0% +41.5%

Apr (20) usd/day 6,447 6,769 -4.8% +153.6%

May (20) usd/day 9,725 9,769 -0.5% +282.6%

Mar (20) usd/day 3,597 4,388 -18.0% +41.5%

Q2 (20) usd/day 9,649 9,810 -1.6% +279.6%

Q3 (20) usd/day 15,950 15,622 +2.1% +527.5%

Q4 (20) usd/day 17,088 16,794 +1.8% +572.2%

Cal 21 usd/day 13,838 13,456 +2.8% +444.4%

Cal 22 usd/day 13,981 13,925 +0.4% +450.0%

Mar (20) usd/day 10,292 9,161 +12.3% +7.1%

Apr (20) usd/day 11,433 10,799 +5.9% +19.0%

May (20) usd/day 11,617 11,149 +4.2% +20.9%

Mar (20) usd/day 10,292 9,161 +12.3% +7.1%

Q2 (20) usd/day 11,634 11,146 +4.4% +21.1%

Q3 (20) usd/day 12,161 11,895 +2.2% +26.5%

Q4 (20) usd/day 12,020 11,808 +1.8% +25.1%

Cal 21 usd/day 11,280 11,027 +2.3% +17.4%

Cal 22 usd/day 10,724 10,655 +0.6% +11.6%

Mar (20) usd/day 8,475 7,793 +8.8% +12.0%

Apr (20) usd/day 9,532 9,150 +4.2% +26.0%

May (20) usd/day 9,736 9,279 +4.9% +28.7%

Mar (20) usd/day 8,475 7,793 +8.8% +12.0%

Q2 (20) usd/day 9,712 9,282 +4.6% +28.4%

Q3 (20) usd/day 10,468 10,150 +3.1% +38.4%

Q4 (20) usd/day 10,436 10,071 +3.6% +38.0%

Cal 21 usd/day 9,689 9,600 +0.9% +28.1%

Cal 22 usd/day 9,275 9,221 +0.6% +22.6%

Mar (20) usd/day 7,066 7,091 -0.4% +12.3%

Apr (20) usd/day 8,316 8,379 -0.8% +32.2%

May (20) usd/day 8,829 8,735 +1.1% +40.3%

Mar (20) usd/day 7,066 7,091 -0.4% +12.3%

Q2 (20) usd/day 8,697 8,664 +0.4% +38.2%

Q3 (20) usd/day 9,429 9,335 +1.0% +49.9%

Q4 (20) usd/day 9,304 9,235 +0.7% +47.9%

Cal 21 usd/day 8,947 8,966 -0.2% +42.2%

Cal 22 usd/day 8,904 8,897 +0.1% +41.5%

HANDYSIZE (38k)

SUPRAMAX (58k)

PANAMAX (82k)

CHARTERING 6

DRY BULK FFAS (Baltic Forward Assessments)


10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20

1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

VLCC Suezmax Aframax

-5,000

10,000

25,000

40,000

55,000

70,000

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

TD19 Aframax Med-Med (usd/day)

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

TD6 Suexmax BSea-Med (usd/day)

0

60,000

120,000

180,000

240,000

300,000

360,000

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

TD3C VLCC MEG-Far East (usd/day)VLCC Unit 06-Mar 28-Feb W-o-W Y-o-Y

TD1 MEG-USG ws 30.41 30.91 -1.6% -5.6%

TD1 MEG-USG usd/day 12,286 12,947 -5.1% +124%

TD2 MEG-Spore ws 49.58 50.42 -1.7% -26.9%

TD3C MEG-China ws 48.63 49.25 -1.3% -27.3%

TD3C MEG-China usd/day 30,339 31,066 -2.3% -19.8%

TD15 WAF-China ws 49.00 49.38 -0.8% -25.4%

Avg. VLCC TCE usd/day 21,313 22,007 -3.2% -1.6%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 30,000 30,000 +0.0% -6.3%

SUEZMAX TD6 BSea-Med ws 84.17 83.17 +1.2% +4.3%

TD6 BSea-Med usd/day 23,511 23,852 -1.4% +73.4%

TD20 WAF-Cont ws 76.14 77.05 -1.2% +22.5%

MEG-EAST ws 70.00 72.50 -3.4% +0.0%

TD23 MEG-Med ws 35.86 29.29 +22.4% +5.5%

Avg. Suezmax TCE usd/day 24,468 25,605 -4.4% +104.1%


AFRAMAX TD7 NSea-Cont ws 93.06 100.00 -6.9% -13.0%

TD7 NSea-Cont usd/day 9,967 15,714 -36.6% -33.7%

TD17 Baltic-UKC ws 75.28 80.56 -6.6% -19.3%

TD17 Baltic-UKC usd/day 15,628 19,551 -20.1% -29.8%

TD19 Med-Med ws 104.72 86.56 +21.0% +2.2%

TD19 Med-Med usd/day 21,624 12,953 +66.9% +61.1%

TD8 Kuwait-China ws 98.06 104.44 -6.1% +2.1%

TD8 Kuwait-China usd/day 14,823 17,042 -13.0% +93.1%

TD9 Caribs-USG ws 152.19 145.00 +5.0% +58.4%

TD9 Caribs-USG usd/day 32,716 31,501 +3.9% +312.7%

Avg. Aframax TCE usd/day 18,577 19,003 -2.2% +44.4%


CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKET

CHARTERING 7

TANKER

The VLCC market remained prettystatic during the week: MEG-USGdeals still assessed around280@30, whilst Hound Point-Chinadeals were done at $6.15 mln.In the Suezmax segment themarket in West kept on hoveringclose to previous week levels:Repsol took a couple of Suezmaxunits between WS57.5 and WS62.5for 140,000 mt cargoes from Sidi

Kerir to Spain, while in MEG areaBasrah-Med rates moved up toWS37.5 for 140,000 mt cargoes(for a replacement).In the Aframax segment, manyships that ballasted away duringprevious weeks were helped alsoby a flurry of CPC cargoes: this ledrates to move up to low WS100level in Med and WS120 level fromBSea.

The market instead was softer inNW Europe and in the East. FromUSG, 70,000 mt cargoes with Med-UKC destination were fixed againat higher level reaching WS130.



Northbound days 2.0 2.5 -20.0% -80.0%

Southbound days 2.0 2.5 -20.0% -83.3%


TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) ws 125.38 98.75 +27.0% +28.6%

TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) usd/day 26,764 17,364 +54.1% +137.2%

TC8 MEG-UKC ( 6 5 k ) usd/mt 31.38 25.54 +22.9% +19.0%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) ws 124.72 100.00 +24.7% +15.4%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) usd/day 18,662 12,326 +51.4% +95.6%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) ws 180.56 182.50 -1.1% +24.5%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) usd/day 21,774 22,636 -3.8% +86.0%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) ws 135.71 120.71 +12.4% +75.8%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) usd/day 14,132 11,708 +20.7% +33547.6%

TC9 Baltic-UKC ( 2 2 k ) ws 160.71 179.29 -10.4% -5.5%

TC6 Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 175.00 174.56 +0.3% +15.5%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) ws 164.17 159.44 +3.0% -1.8%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) usd/day 16,590 15,171 +9.4% +30.0%

TC11 SK-Spore ( 4 0 k ) usd/day 14,386 10,872 +32.3% +158.0%

MR Pacific Basket usd/day 19,309 17,613 +9.6% +91.2%

MR Atlantic Basket usd/day 30,297 28,504 +6.3% +150.0%

LR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 22,000 22,000 +0.0% +15.8%

MR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 14,750 15,000 -1.7% +5.4%

TD12 Cont-USG ( 5 5 k ) ws 100.00 110.63 -9.6% -11.1%

TD18 Baltic-UKC ( 3 0 K) ws 200.00 246.25 -18.8% +34.1%

BSea-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 177.5 185.0 -4.1% +26.8%

Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 167.5 175.0 -4.3% +28.8%

DELAYS AT TURKISH STRAITS (for daylight restricted vessels)

CHARTERING 8

PRODUCT TANKER MARKETLR1 units open position were verytight both for early and for laterdates: as a consequence, rates forMEG-Japan route reached WS125,basis MEG-UKC, and owners willkeep pushing for min $2 mln. OnLR2, MEG-Japan rates and Med-FEast rates reached WS125 leveland $2.725. Quite good activity onHandysize units in Med: despiterates were registered aroundWS175 level for CrossMed trades,on Friday they reached WS210from BSea. MR segment in Contwas steady: Cont-US Atlantic Coast

trade was quite active and ratesreached WS180, with some fixturesreported at WS185. Activity fromCont to WAfr was quietercompared to activity with USAtlantic Coast destination: fewfixtures were reported close toWS205. UKC rates softened to30@155 level and rates for aCrossUKC voyage were reported at30@145: again a bit more activitypushed rates up to WS170 andWS160. In the dirty market theactivity was still slow both in Medand in BSea especially on

Handysize: rates for CrossMed lostfew points going down to30@165/170 and rates from BSeawere rumoured at WS175/180. MRsegment instead was: BSea-Medrates lost another few points goingdown to 45@115/120 level. Therewas a different scenario in Cont:the market was extremely quietand Baltic-UKC rates dropped to30@200 level. On Panamaxsegment few fixtures werereported from Med and UKC: TArates were rumoured at 55@100level.

0

16,000

32,000

48,000

64,000

80,000

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

TC1 LR2 MEG-Japan (usd/day)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

MR Atlantic Basket (usd/day)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

MR Pacific Basket (usd/day)

10,000

14,000

18,000

22,000

26,000

30,000

Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20

1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

LR2 MR2



Comprehensive Index index 871 876 -0.5% +13.6%

Services:

Shanghai - North Europe usd/teu 830 804 +3.2% +10.1%

Shanghai - Mediterranean usd/teu 915 928 -1.4% +17.9%

Shanghai - WC USA usd/feu 1,361 1,394 -2.4% -4.9%

Shanghai - EC USA usd/feu 2,679 2,690 -0.4% +8.1%

Shanghai - Dubai usd/teu 958 985 -2.7% +56.5%

Shanghai - Santos usd/teu 1,580 1,582 -0.1% +7.6%

Shanghai - Singapore usd/teu 191 191 +0.0% +30.8%


ConTex index 397 403 -1.5% +2.3%

4250 teu (1Y, g’less) usd/day 12,494 12,760 -2.1% +42.6%



2500 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 9,081 9,154 -0.8% -0.6%

1700 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 7,818 7,958 -1.8% +4.4%

1100 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 6,065 6,087 -0.4% -5.9%

FIXTURES

China is slowly returning back tonormality and same should haveinfluence on an increasing marketflow.

The activity was steady but theConTex lost 6 points dropping to397 points: the 4250 Teu segmentwas the most affected and went

down by 2,1 %.

CHARTERING 9

CONTAINERS

VHSS CONTAINERSHIP TIMECHARTER(source: Hamburg Shipbrokers’ Association)

CONTAINERIZED FREIGHT INDEX(source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange)

Vessel Name Built TEUs TEU@14 Gear Fixture Period Rates

Ikaria 2002 5908 4006 no extended to Wan Hai 4/5 m $17,500/d

Jpo Taurus 2010 4178 2882 no fixed to Cma Cgm 3/9 m $12,000/d

Daphne 2006 3091 2481 yes extended to Global Feeder 3/5 m $9,500/d

Cape Male 2009 2770 2220 yes fixed to Msc 1/2 m $9,250/d

Songa Bonn 2020 1970 1388 no fixed to Turkon 1/2 m $8,600/d

Conmar Najade 2007 698 436 no fixed to Mtl 6/12 m $4,800/d

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

Gearless - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

4250 3500 2700

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

Geared - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

2500 1700 1100

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

Shanghai Container Freight Index


06-Mar 28-Feb W-o-W Y-o-Y

USD/Euro 1.13 1.10 +3.3% +0.6%

Yen/USD 105.39 107.89 -2.3% -5.5%

SK Won/USD 1,192 1,215 -1.8% +5.6%

Ch Yuan/USD 6.93 6.99 -0.8% +3.2%

3 yrs 5 yrs 7 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs 20 yrs

USD 0.66 0.70 0.75 0.81 0.88 0.92

Euro -0.46 -0.41 -0.36 -0.24 -0.06 0.03

Libor USD Libor Euro Euribor Euro

6 Months 0.88 -0.47 -0.43

12 Months 0.85 -0.40 -0.35

Unit 01-Mar-20 M-o-M Y-o-Y

Capesize usd mln 47.9 -0.1% -2.1%

Kamsarmax usd mln 26.8 -0.4% -4.2%

Ultramax usd mln 25.3 -0.2% -3.8%

VLCC usd mln 84.0 +0.0% -0.1%

LR2 Coated usd mln 45.5 +0.1% -2.4%

MR2 Coated usd mln 33.2 +0.0% -1.7%

No orders in the dry-bulk segmentregistered during the week. In thewet sector, Eastern Pacificcommissioned to SWS theconstruction of 2 x 158,000 dwtSuezmax: the price is not knownand the duet will be delivered in2022. Big order coming from AETInc. to Samsung for the

construction of 3 x 152,000 dwtshuttle tankers. The trio will have acost of $ 104.83 mln per vessel andonce delivered between December2022 and June 2023, the vesselswill go on a 15-year time charter toPetrobas. AET Inc. has alreadyordered shuttle tankers to Samsungin 2018 and at that time the price

amounted to $ 91 mln. SC Shippingordered to Fukuoka 2 x 19,000 dwtproduct carriers which will bedelivered in the second half of2021. The cost of the two vesselsremains undisclosed.

NEWBUILDING REPORTED ORDERS

Type Size Built Yard Buyers Price Comment

Tank 158,000 2022 SWS Eastern Pacific n.a. 2 units

Tank 152,000 2022/23 Samsung AET inc. 104.833 units, on long TC to

Petrobras

Prod 19,000 2021 Fukuoka SC Shipping n.a.

SALE & PURCHASE 10

NEWBUILDINGS / FINANCE

INTEREST RATES

INTEREST RATE SWAPS

EXCHANGE RATES

INDICATIVE NEWBUILDING PRICES (CHINA)

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20

Newbuilding Prices (usd mln)

Capesize Ultramax MR2

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

USD/Euro Exchange

100

105

110

115

120

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

Yen/USD Exchange


SECONDHAND REPORTED SALES


Dry Bulk usd/ldt 374.5 375.1 -0.2% -12.3%

Tanker usd/ldt 379.3 380.3 -0.2% -12.4%


Capesize usd mln 31.7 31.8 -0.4% -12.9%

Kamsarmax usd mln 22.3 22.4 -0.5% +3.4%

Supramax usd mln 16.1 16.2 -0.3% -10.5%

VLCC usd mln 75.0 75.2 -0.2% +12.0%

Suezmax usd mln 52.5 52.6 -0.2% n.a.

Aframax usd mln 40.6 40.7 -0.1% +23.3%

MR Product usd mln 29.8 29.8 +0.0% +8.5%

BALTIC SECONDHAND ASSESSMENTS

SHIP RECYCLING ASSESSMENT

Considering the limited number ofavailable candidates, during theweek was evidenced appetite formodern tanker tonnage. Wasreported a VLCC resale hull 5476(Owner: Sinokor) scrubber andBWTS fitted taken over by Euronav,Belgium at $93 mln with delivery2021. A 2014 VLCC 'MiltiadesJunior' owned in Greece was soldon private basis to possibly clientsof Petredec, Singapore at $ 69 mln.Two Aframax tankers sisterships104,000 dwt built in 2008 by SWS

namely "Olimpic Sea" and "OlimpicSky", were rumoured to be on subswith Advantage Tankers at $21.5mln each. Finally two MR1 tankers40,000 dwt "Inyala" and "Rhino"built in 2008 and 2010 were sold toundisclosed buyers at $13 mln and$15 mln respectively.In the dry segment, Oman Shipping

took over one Scorpio ownedUltramax unit "TR Omaha“ 63,500dwt built in 2014 at Hantong at$17.5 mil. Handysize bulkers priceskept on softening: mv "Arrilah-I"

37,000 dwt built in 2011 atHyundai Mipo was sold for $8.75mln whilst another Handysize"Baltic Wind" 35,000 dwt built in2009 at SPP, S. Korea was sold for$7.75 mln to Turkish buyers (SSpassed and BWTS fitted).

From June 2019, the Panamax BSPA benchmark changed into a Kamsarmax (82,500mtdwt on 14.43m, LOA 229m, beam 32.25m, 97,000cbm grain) and the benchmark BSPAAframax specifications was amended to 115,000mt dwt and 44m beam

SALE & PURCHASE 11

SECONDHAND / DEMOLITION

20

25

30

35

40

45

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

Secondhand Values (usd mln)

Kamsarmax Aframax MR

350

400

450

500

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

Demolition Assessment (usd/ldt)

Dry Bulk Tanker


TYPE VESSEL NAME DWT BLT YARD BUYERS PRICE NOTE

Bulk Everlucky 70,000 1996 Sumitomo 3.8

Bulk Evermerit 69,000 1995 Sumitomo 3.6

Bulk Pacific Light 50,000 2007 Pal Indones ia Marti Shipping BBHP BBHP of 2 years . US $2.4M DP.

Bulk Arrilah-I 36,000 2011 Hyundai Mipo undisclosed buyers 8.75

Crude Ridgebury Purpose 306,000 2000 Samsung Greek buyers 21

Prod Inyala 40,000 2008 SLS Tongyeong Undisclosed 13 En bloc price each. On subs .

Prod Rhino 39,000 2010 SLS Tongyeong 15

Feeder Al Yasra 1,015 2009 Dae Sun Pan Ocean 6.5

Feeder Spica J 962 2007 Hegemann Berne German buyers NA

Gen Hc Nadja Maria 8,000 2000 Damen Hoogezand 2.65

Gas Grace River 80,000 2002 Kawasaki 34undisclosed buyers

Chinese buyers

Argentine grain sales snarled byexpected soybean export tax hikeGrain sales in Argentina were at astandstill after media reports saidthe government would soonincrease export taxes as itstruggles to control its fiscal deficit.The agriculture ministry suspendedthe registration of grains exports,which prohibits grain exportersfrom making a new deal. Localmedia reported the governmentwas set to raise soybean exporttaxes to 33 percent from thecurrent 30 percent as soon as nextweek. Cash-strapped Argentina –in recession and on the cusp of asovereign debt restructuring – is amajor corn and soybean supplieras well as the world top exporterof soymeal livestock feed.Prolonged uncertainty gripping thecountry’s grains sector could putinternational shipments at risk.French wheat shipments at newhigh in Feb after strikesFrench soft wheat shipmentsoutside the EU last month reachedtheir highest level for a Feb in atleast 10 years, Refinitiv datashowed, suggesting an easing ofstrikes against pension reformhelped exporters to takeadvantage of brisk demand.Competitive prices and largesupplies from a bumper 2019harvest have attracted strongoverseas demand for French wheatin recent months. Explorersmanaged to maintain a highloading pace in Dec and Jan duringrail and port strikes over plannedpension reform, although traderssay costs spiralled and certainexport loadings were transferredto other European countries.Industrial action waned in late Jan,and grain firms reported aresumption in rail freight servicesafter resorting to more expensive

truck transport in previous weeks.China was the third-highest exportdestination for French wheat,behind Algeria with 578,000tonnes and Morocco with 322,000tonnes. Most French grainexported inside the EU istransported by non-maritimeroutes like road, rail or waterways.Total grain shipments from Frenchports in Feb – including barley,malting barley, maize, waxy maizeand durum wheat – similarlyreached their highest in at leastdecade at 2.05 mln tonnes.CN Rail faces grain export backlogof 10,000 carloadsCanadian National Railway Co lostcapacity equivalent to 10,000carloads, or 1 mln tonnes of grainexports, in Feb due to railblockades by protestors opposedto a pipeline project, ChiefExecutive Jean-Jacques Ruest said.Activists disrupted passenger andfreight traffic last month to showsolidarity with the Wet’suwet’enpeople, who are seeking to stop TCEnergy Corp’s Coastal GasLinkpipeline from being built acrosstheir land. The lost capacityrepresents roughly 1 percent ofCanada’s total harvest during the2019/20 marketing year. Canadarelies on CN, the world’s largestrailroad, and smaller riverCanadian Pacific Railway CP.TO tomove crops, oil, potash, coal andmanufactured goods to ports andthe US.

Ukraine to sell its only state-rungrain firm DPZKUUkraine will sell its only state-rungrain company DPZKU, theUkrainian government said. “Thisthe largest corporation is a grainexporter in Ukraine and the largestflour producer in the country. Onpaper, for some reason, it is

unprofitable and inefficient,”Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuksaid. DPZSKU operates 47 grainsilos across the country. Thecompany said its seaport terminalsexported one mln tonnes of grainin the first six months of the2019/20 July-Jun season, 50percent more than the 2018/19season. Last season, DPZKUexported a total of 2.44 mlntonnes of grains, including 921,000to China. Under a $1.5 bln Chineseloan-for-grains deal signed in 2012,DPZKU is meant to supply 5 mlntonnes of grain to Chinese tradingfirm CCEC each year.China grants duty exemption onUS soybean importsChina has granted tariffexemptions for some crushers toimport US soybeans, in line with aplan it announced in Feb, aiming tofulfil commitments under its Phase1 trade deal with the UnitedStates. The exemption will takeeffect from the day of issue, will bevalid for a year. The governmenthas asked applicants for monthlypurchase plans, said a secondsource with a major trading house,who has applied for theexemption. Late in February,Beijing announced it would grantexemptions on retaliatory dutiesimposed against 696 US goods,including soybeans and grains.Soybean importers will be exemptfrom extra tariffs imposed on UScargoes during a tit-for-tat tradewar, which stand at 27.5 percent intotal, after a small cut on Feb 14.China has also granted tariffexemptions for some importers tobuy US sorghum, wheat anddistiller’ dried grain (DDGs), amongproduct on its list, traders said.

Source: Refinitiv

COMMENT MARKET REPORT – WEEK 48/2019 12COMMODITIES 12MARKET REPORT – WEEK 10/2020

DRY BULK NEWS

China to ramp up gasoline exportsamid virus, adding to regional glutChina is to ramp up gasolineexports in March and April as itsrefiners rid themselves of excessstock in the world’s largest energyconsumer after the coronavirusoutbreak hit domestic fuel sales.The scale-up in Chinese exportscould exert further downwardpressure on gasoline margins inthe region where supply is on therise. The virus could reducedemand by as much as 730,000bpd in the first quarter, more thandouble the monthly imports byAsia’s top gasoline importer,Indonesia. China’s gasolineexports are already increasing astrucks in the country resume work,easing earlier bottlenecks. Theprojected exports would be a bigleap from Feb’s shipmentsestimated at a six-month low ofabout 1.2 mln tonnes, according toRefinitiv Oil Research. Asia isexpected to see a gasoline supplysurplus of 120,000 bpd in the firstquarter from the same period ayear earlier, according to FGE.Mexican firm takes millions ofbarrels of Venezuelan crude in oil-for-food swapVenezuela has swapped mln ofbarrels of crude for supplies ofcorn and water trucks under an oil-for-food deal struck with aMexican firm, in an effort to secureimports amid tightening USsanctions, according to thecompany and loading schedules. AsVenezuela’s state-run oil companyPDVSA has seen its portfolio ofcustomers dwindle due to the USsanctions aimed at oustingPresident Nicolas Maduro,Mexican firm Libre Abordo SA hasemerged as a major lifter of itscrude. Libre Abordo, which has noprevious experience in the oilsector, has so far taken 6.2 mlnbarrels of Venezuelan heavy crude

for re-sale in international marketsand has two more cargoes of oiland fuel due to be loaded thismonth. The company said it hadconsulted lawyers concerning thetransaction and had been advisedthat there was no violation of theUS sanctions as there were no cashpayments involved because the oilwas received to offset food aid.China’s bunker fuel demandplummets as freight trade slowsChina’s marine fuels sales fell asmuch as 50 percent in Feb as therapidly spreading coronavirus andprolonged Lunar New Year breakstrangled freight movement in andout of the global manufacturingpowerhouse. The epidemic, whichhas killed almost 3,000 people andinfected about 80,000 in Chinaalone, triggered the sharpestcontraction on record for Chinesefactory activity in Feb and causedmassive port congestions becauseof labour shortages. The resultingplunge in freight demand hasknocked 40 percent off Asianprices for VLSFO since early Janand upended expectations of anenduring shortage of fuelstemming from stricter shipemissions standards that kicked inthis year. Feb bunker fuel demandin China is estimated to have fallenby 30-50 percent from theprevious month, while demand inrival bunkering hubs such asFujairah and Singapore areexpected to have slumped by 20-30 percent. The demand shockcould also delay Chinese refiners’plans to boost output of VLSFO.Oil traders hit by unexpectedslump in gasoilAfter strong profits in 2019, oiltraders have been hit hard early in2020, losing tens of mlns of dollarson bets on gasoil price spreads dueto an unexpected collapse indemand in Jan. The global oilindustry expected this year would

bring a sharp increase in marinegasoil demand due to newregulations from the IMO thatlimited the use of high-sulphur fueloils beginning in Jan. Tradersexpected gasoil demand wouldspike as it met those regulations,so that it could be substituted forhigher-sulphur fuels. Instead,gasoil and diesel demand droppedworldwide due to a warmer-than-expected winter in the NorthernHemisphere and dropped inconsumption due to the globalspread of the coronavirus. Mosttraders do not publish detailedresults of their gains and losses ontrading in individual products.However, sources said numeroustrading houses and oil major hadlosses on diesel due to wrong-waybets.OPEC raises stakes with Russia, seeks biggest oil cut since 2008OPEC pushed for a bigger-than-expected oil output cut to supportprices that have been hit by thecoronavirus outbreak, effectivelypresenting its non-OPEC partnerswith an ultimatum to back themove or face a price collapse.OPEC’s proposal to curb suppliesby an extra 1.5 mln bpd until theend of 2020 was a surprise, giventhe group was expected topropose cuts of 1 mln bpd and saidcurbs should be limited to thesecond quarter. But an unusualinformal meeting of OPECministers announced that thegroup now wanted the cut –already the biggest since 2008financial crisis – to run until theend year. Russia and Kazakhstansaid they had not yet agreed to adeeper cut, raising the risk of acollapse in cooperation that haspropped up crude prices since2016. OPEC+ already has a deal inplace for 2.1 mln bpd of cuts.Source: Refinitiv

COMMENT MARKET REPORT – WEEK 48/2019 13COMMODITIES 13MARKET REPORT – WEEK 10/2020

OIL & GAS NEWS

300

400

500

600

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

Wheat and Corn Prices (usd/t)

Corn Wheat

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

Steel Prices in China (rmb/t)

Rebar Plate

40

60

80

100

120

140

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

Iron Ore and Coal Prices (usd/t)

Steam Coal Iron Ore

40

50

60

70

80

90

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

Brent and WTI Oil Prices (usd/bbl)

Brent WTI

200

400

600

800

6/3/19 6/7/19 6/11/19 6/3/20

Bunker Prices @ Singapore (usd/t)

IFO 380 0.5% LSFO MGO


Wheat usd/t 516.0 529.0 -2.5% +19.2%

Corn usd/t 372.5 371.3 +0.3% +4.3%

Soybeans usc/bu 861.8 891.0 -3.3% -2.5%

Palm Oil usd/t 581.5 559.2 +4.0% +11.9%


Iron Ore (Platts) usd/t 89.2 82.9 +7.5% +4.7%

Iron Ore @Tangshan rmb/t 672.0 649.0 +3.5% +4.8%

Rebar in China rmb/t 3,497 3,550 -1.5% -11.0%

Plate in China rmb/t 3,847 3,876 -0.7% -7.2%

HR Coil in China rmb/t 3,587 3,617 -0.8% -9.5%

CR Sheet in China rmb/t 4,260 4,301 -1.0% -3.7%


Steam @ Richards Bay usd/t 67.1 75.1 -10.7% -17.0%

Steam @ Newcastle usd/t 65.9 66.4 -0.8% -32.5%

Coking Coal Australia usd/t 161.0 162.0 -0.6% -22.2%


Crude Oil Brent usd/bbl 45.3 50.9 -11.1% -31.8%

Crude Oil WTI usd/bbl 41.3 45.8 -9.8% -27.1%

Crude Oil Dubai usd/bbl 49.0 49.1 -0.2% -26.7%

Nat Gas Henry Hub usd/mmbtu 1.62 1.73 -6.4% -42.1%

Gasoline Nymex usd/gal 1.12 1.49 -24.8% -38.5%

ICE Gasoil usd/t 338.3 449.8 -24.8% -44.6%

Naphtha Tokyo usd/t 392.0 419.6 -6.6% -26.8%

Jet-Kerosene Asia usd/bbl 53.3 56.0 -4.9% -32.3%


Rotterdam usd/t 276.5 279.5 -1.1% -32.8%

Fujairah usd/t 291.5 300.0 -2.8% -33.0%

Singapore usd/t 287.0 293.5 -2.2% -34.6%

Rotterdam usd/t 379.0 382.5 -0.9% n.a.

Fujairah usd/t 422.0 435.0 -3.0% n.a.

Singapore usd/t 415.5 428.0 -2.9% n.a.

Rotterdam usd/t 423.5 428.5 -1.2% -27.4%

Fujairah usd/t 587.5 586.5 +0.2% -19.6%

Singapore usd/t 446.5 459.5 -2.8% -28.1%

IFO

38

00

.5%

LSF

OM

GO

OIL & GAS

COAL

IRON ORE AND STEEL

AGRICULTURAL

BUNKER

COMMODITIES 14

PRICES


MARKET REPORT –WEEK 19/2019

NEWS

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