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Weekly Market Report

Week 7/2019 (11 February – 15 February)

Comment: Chinese bauxite imports

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2 market report - week 7/2019

In 2018, China imported 82.7 million tonnes of bauxite based on Chinese customs data, up 20.3 percent year-on-year. The increase continued to be driven by strong volumes from Guinea, from which shipments to China increased 38.3 percent year-on-year in 2018 to 38.2 million tonnes. Since 2017, Guinea has overtaken Australia as the top bauxite supplier to China, following extensive Chinese investment in Guinea’s mines and logistics infrastructure.

Bauxite supplies from Guinea are expected to continue growing as the country increases production aggressively, with further mining project developments coming to fruition. The country mined 60 million tonnes of bauxite last year, up from 50 million tonnes in 2017, and Societe Miniere de Boke (SMB) – its largest exporter – is targeting production of 60 million tonnes on its own this year. However, strikes continue to present some downside risk, as SMB lost 1-1.2 million tonnes of bauxite production last year following a nearly two-week strike in May.

While Australian supplies have fallen to second place, their volumes to China in 2018 have also seen a significant increase of 16.8 percent to 29.8 million tonnes. Australian exports may increase further this year as production from Rio Tinto’s Amrun bauxite mine ramps up to 22.8 million tonnes in 2019, and the mine is expected to increase annual bauxite exports by around 10 million tonnes. The mine had achieved its first bauxite shipment of over 80,000 tonnes in Dec 2018, and is set to replace volumes from the depleting East Weipa mine.

Bauxite shipments from Indonesia to China have also been increasing significantly, after they eased their ban on mineral exports in early 2017. Indonesia started to resume bauxite shipments in July 2017 – their first since mid-2014 – and their shipments to China have increased almost 6-fold year-on-year to 7.5 million tonnes in 2018.

Chinese bauxite imports last year were supported by strong overseas demand for downstream products alumina and aluminium, as a production cut at Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte refinery in Brazil, strike at Alcoa’s operations in Western Australia, and U.S. sanctions on Rusal led to a global supply squeeze. China’s 2018 alumina exports summed up to 1.46 million tonnes, more than 25 times the 2017 volume. Exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products also increased a strong 20.9 percent to 5.8 million tonnes last year – even as shipments to the U.S. fell 48.6 percent to 0.35 million tonnes amid the trade war. The U.S. had previously been China’s largest customer, accounting for 14 percent of Chinese aluminium exports in 2017.

However, both international alumina and aluminium prices have since fallen, reducing the incentive for Chinese producers to export these products. Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte refinery is generally expected to resume full production this year, and U.S. sanctions on Rusal have been lifted in January this year – both factors which are expected to improve the global alumina and aluminium supply situation.

Without the support of strong overseas demand, aluminium production in China could come under more pressure this year as they face domestic oversupply and softening local demand from manufacturing and construction. In response to low prices, China’s aluminium producers have agreed in December to cut 800,000 tonnes per year of smelting capacity this year, after having closed more than 3.2 million tonnes of capacity in 2018.

Nevertheless, a lack of domestic bauxite supplies due to depleting resources, deteriorating ore quality, and environmental concerns are still expected to continue supporting the need for bauxite imports in China, with imports now estimated to account for 45 percent of their overall bauxite supplies.

Chinese bauxite imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

12/2015 06/2016 12/2016 06/2017 12/2017 06/2018 12/2018

mill

ion

to

nn

es

China - Monthly Bauxite Imports by Main Sources(source: customs data; in million tonnes)

Guinea Australia Indonesia Malaysia Others

11.9

21.3

0.0 0.2

4.4

13.9

27.625.5

1.3 1.53.3

9.5

38.2

29.8

7.5

1.6 1.63.9

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

Guinea Australia Indonesia Solomon Islands Brazil Others

mill

ion

to

nn

es

China Bauxite Imports by Source(Source: customs data; in million tonnes)

2016 2017 2018

Unit 15-Feb 08-Feb W-o-W Y-o-Y

BPI TC Avg. usd/day 5,029 4,618 +8.9% -49.9%

BPI 82 TC Avg. usd/day 6,531 6,128 +6.6% -41.9%

P1 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 2,463 2,293 +7.4% -74.8%

P2 Skaw-Gib Trip East usd/day 10,632 10,434 +1.9% -36.7%

P3 Pacific r/v usd/day 5,813 4,864 +19.5% -37.1%

1 Yr TC Period Panamax usd/day 9,500 9,000 +5.6% -20.8%

1 Yr TC Period Kamsarmax usd/day 11,000 10,500 +4.8% -17.0%


BCI TC Avg. usd/day 7,308 7,911 -7.6% -43.0%

C8 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 8,010 10,260 -21.9% -34.3%

C14 China-Brazil r/v usd/day 7,091 7,236 -2.0% -48.7%

C10 Pacific r/v usd/day 6,421 5,308 +21.0% -50.2%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 13,000 14,000 -7.1% -32.5%

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Capesize rates on the main routes West Australia/Qingdao and Tubarao/Qingdao slightly recovered last week. The Tubarao/Qingdao route, albeit the Brazilian Dam accident, saw some fresh cargoes and rates moved a bit up in the low $13’s/mt for early-March dates. The standard route West Australia/Qingdao gained almost 50 $ cents in the week by closing at $5.50/mt on Friday for very end-February/early March dates. Some activity was recorded also on the Saldanha Bay/Qingdao trades with rates agreed in the lows $9/mt for early March lay/can. In the Atlantic area, the very few fresh cargoes kept market under pressure with Bolivar/Rotterdam done at $6.95/mt and front hauls stable in the very high teens.

Capesize Market

Rates

Panamax Market

Rates

The Panamax market didn’t record an overall positive week, despite some sign of recovery. The Pacific market showed a lot of fresh cargoes especially From Indonesia and also from Richards Bay to India, however, despite a positive index, rates improved less than what expected due to the number of available vessels. By contrast, the Atlantic basin remained stuck with no fresh cargoes and many vessels were fixed on aps bss either from West Africa or North Brazil back to Cont with no ballast bonus. In ECSAm, fixtures kept last week levels with ballasters arriving in Brazil/Argentina and waiting for loading dates. Despite this present negative situation and also with paper/ffa market levels close or just above to the spot market:, some fixtures were concluded on period and 3/4 vessels were reported agreed for one year.

3

0

7,000

14,000

21,000

28,000

35,000

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

BCI TC and Capesize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BCI TC

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

BPI TC and Panamax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BPI TC

market report - week 7/2019

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Activity increased again in the USG, touching levels similar to the Q4 of 2018. Supramax were fixing at $12/13,000/d for TCT in Atlantic and in the high teens dir India/East. Ultramax had $2/3,000/d of premium on the above. Less ships and longer cargo list made the trend changing. Handysizes rates, sustained by a good amount of cargoes, grew $3/4,000/d in 10 days. The 32/35,000 dwt were seeing $7/8,000 while the 37/39,000 dwt were closer to $10,000/d. The SAM market started to see first improvements in the area. Handysizes’ levels for TA trip settled at $6,500/d, same for Supramax at around $6/6,500/d while Ultramax at around one thousand dollars more. Coastal businesses in Brazil were fixed at around $5,500/6,000/d for the Handies and again around the same for Supramaxes. For trips F East, Handysizes’ market seemd again above the $10,000/d level and around $10,000/d + $100,000 bb for Supramaxes and Ultramaxes.

Supramax & Handysize Market

Ind

ia

S A

fric

a

Cont market was stable on Handy and Supramaxes. A 35,000 dwt was reported fixed at around $6,000/d or for trip to USG/USEC basis dely Cont. Supra/Ultramax market was slightly more active but with almost no fixtures reported apart from an Imabari 61,000 dwt fixed at $6,000/d bss dely pass Skaw for trip via Baltic to E Med which didn’t show a particular improvement from the previous week. In BlSea, a 55,000 dwt fixed a front haul at $11,000 with grains. Supramaxes were still struggling although there seemed to be a bit of a clear-out of W Med tonnage. Even if a bit more enquires for Handysizes were recorded, rates didn’t move much. The overall improved sentiment, which follows the positive week of the USG market, should get through the massive amount of ships first.

A 61,000 dwt open WCI was fixed at $8,500/d dop WCI for trip via MEG with fertilizers to SE Asia, which was a very strong rate to start the week with. Otherwise, a 53,000 dwt open Fujairah was fixed in the mid $6,000/d for trip via UAE to ECI. In the second half of the week a similar size vessel was gone at similar numbers but for WCI redely. From ECI, market was around the $4/4,500/d levels for trips from ECI to WCI/MEG range, which is about $1,000/d more compared to the week before. Much came to light from S Afr, where early in the week a 57,000 dwt was fixed at $9,000/d aps + $90,000 gbb for S Afr to China while towards the second half of the week a similar size vessel was fixed at $10,000/d + $100,000 gbb. For RBCT/WCI a 61,000 dwt was fixed in the low $10,000/d + $125,000 gbb.

Far

East

P

acif

ic

Supramax/Ultramax saw the daily t/c rates of coal trade via Indonesia to India and China up to around $2,000/d. Owners’ additional earnings on Transpacific trades went up to around $1,500/d for trips via Australia, similar figures were seen on N Pacific rounds with dely not north of Shanghai whilst tonnage delivering N China/Japan range showed to get about $800/d due to shorter duration. Some improvements were seen also for backhaul trips. A tess58 was done at $8,000/d from Singapore via Indonesia to S China while on same trade a 55,600 dwt dolphin type delivering aps load port got $ 9,750/d redey C China and an Ultramax was fixed at $10,000/d to China with dely close to its load port. Another tess58 delivering Manila fixed a trip via east Kalimantan to WCI at $8,500/d. Another dolphin was paid $5,000/d from N China via CIS Pacific to S Korea and an Ultramax open CJK fixed a trip from S Korea to Cont/Med at $ 4,000/d for the first 65 days and $11,500/d balance period. A 28,000 dwt 2001 built was fixed dely Thailand for a trip to Indonesia at $6,000/d, for which the week before a similar was vessel at only $4,500/d.

US

Atl

anti

c

Sou

th A

mer

ica

4

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

BSI TC and Supramax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BSI TC

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

BHSI TC and Handysize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BHSI TC



BSI TC Avg. usd/day 6,529 4,870 +34.1% -31.5%

S4A 58 USG-Skaw/Pass usd/day 11,344 6,144 +84.6% -33.2%

S9 58 WAF-ECSA-Med usd/day 3,111 2,050 +51.8% -66.1%

S1B 58 Canakkale-FEast usd/day 11,103 10,814 +2.7% -33.2%

S11 58 Pacific r/v usd/day 6,363 4,797 +32.6% -21.1%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 10,000 9,750 +2.6% -7.4%

BHSI TC Avg. usd/day 4,544 4,202 +8.1% -39.7%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 8,750 8,500 +2.9% -2.8%

Sup

ram

axH

and

y

Rates

N E

uro

pe

M

ed

ite

rran

ean

Unit 15-Feb 08-Feb W-o-WPremium/

Discount

Feb (19) usd/day 7,717 7,300 +5.7% +5.6%

Mar (19) usd/day 7,475 7,154 +4.5% +2.3%

Apr (19) usd/day 8,067 8,063 +0.0% +10.4%

Q2 (19) usd/day 8,619 8,443 +2.1% +17.9%

Q3 (19) usd/day 11,908 11,396 +4.5% +62.9%

Q4 (19) usd/day 14,950 14,400 +3.8% +104.6%

Cal 20 usd/day 12,142 11,575 +4.9% +66.1%

Cal 21 usd/day 11,213 10,629 +5.5% +53.4%

Cal 22 usd/day 12,000 11,658 +2.9% +64.2%

Feb (19) usd/day 5,133 5,813 -11.7% +2.1%

Mar (19) usd/day 7,117 7,833 -9.1% +41.5%

Apr (19) usd/day 8,579 9,058 -5.3% +70.6%

Q2 (19) usd/day 9,135 9,213 -0.8% +81.6%

Q3 (19) usd/day 10,329 9,667 +6.8% +105.4%

Q4 (19) usd/day 11,113 10,575 +5.1% +121.0%

Cal 20 usd/day 9,117 8,750 +4.2% +81.3%

Cal 21 usd/day 8,642 8,321 +3.9% +71.8%

Cal 22 usd/day 8,442 8,221 +2.7% +67.9%

Feb (19) usd/day 6,100 5,988 +1.9% -6.6%

Mar (19) usd/day 8,492 8,408 +1.0% +30.1%

Apr (19) usd/day 9,900 9,713 +1.9% +51.6%

Q2 (19) usd/day 10,175 9,899 +2.8% +55.8%

Q3 (19) usd/day 10,867 10,079 +7.8% +66.4%

Q4 (19) usd/day 11,292 10,933 +3.3% +73.0%

Cal 20 usd/day 9,654 9,071 +6.4% +47.9%

Cal 21 usd/day 9,129 8,842 +3.2% +39.8%

Cal 22 usd/day 8,996 8,796 +2.3% +37.8%

Feb (19) usd/day 5,338 5,825 -8.4% +17.5%

Mar (19) usd/day 7,025 7,013 +0.2% +54.6%

Apr (19) usd/day 7,775 7,706 +0.9% +71.1%

Q2 (19) usd/day 7,992 7,958 +0.4% +75.9%

Q3 (19) usd/day 8,175 8,113 +0.8% +79.9%

Q4 (19) usd/day 9,100 9,050 +0.6% +100.3%

Cal 20 usd/day 8,456 8,394 +0.7% +86.1%

Cal 21 usd/day 8,406 8,344 +0.7% +85.0%

Cal 22 usd/day 8,375 8,331 +0.5% +84.3%

Han

dys

ize

Cap

esi

zeP

anam

axSu

pra

max

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21

Handysize Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000


Supramax Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

8,000

16,000

24,000

32,000


Capesize Forward Curve (usd/day)

banchero costa dry cargo chartering

Dry Bulk FFAs (Baltic Forward Assessments)

5

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000


Panamax Forward Curve (usd/day)



TD1 MEG-USG ws 22.93 20.68 +10.9% +21.8%

TD1 MEG-USG usd/day -5,317 -7,448 +28.6% +48.5%

TD2 MEG-Spore ws 52.13 43.60 +19.6% +35.3%

TD3C MEG-China ws 51.13 42.74 +19.6% +33.8%

TD3C MEG-China usd/day 21,842 13,667 +59.8% +233.4%

TD15 WAF-China ws 52.33 44.80 +16.8% +22.8%

Avg. VLCC TCE usd/day 8,263 3,110 +165.7% +538.1%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 36,000 36,000 +0.0% +41.2%

TD6 BSea-Med ws 86.06 90.94 -5.4% +21.4%

TD6 BSea-Med usd/day 17,526 21,679 -19.2% +316.8%

TD20 WAF-Cont ws 70.77 69.23 +2.2% +29.7%

MEG-EAST ws 75.00 83.00 -9.6% +29.3%

MEG-WEST ws 37.00 38.00 -2.6% +48.0%

Avg. Suezmax TCE usd/day 16,349 18,575 -12.0% +271.3%


TD7 NSea-Cont ws 100.00 94.72 +5.6% +11.8%

TD7 NSea-Cont usd/day 11,548 8,697 +32.8% +396.3%

TD17 Baltic-UKC ws 94.17 75.56 +24.6% +33.5%

TD17 Baltic-UKC usd/day 23,425 12,824 +82.7% +492.1%

TD19 Med-Med ws 90.00 97.39 -7.6% +0.0%

TD19 Med-Med usd/day 8,328 12,253 -32% +75.4%

TD8 Kuwait-China ws 90.00 99.44 -9.5% +3.4%

TD8 Kuwait-China usd/day 6,032 9,462 -36.3% +38.7%

TD9 Caribs-USG ws 146.67 126.56 +15.9% +51.7%

TD9 Caribs-USG usd/day 17,962 17,962 +0.0% +294.2%

Avg. Aframax TCE usd/day 11,941 12,543 -4.8% +245.1%


VLC

CSu

ezm

axA

fram

ax

tanker chartering banchero costa

Vlcc rates finally moved in Owners' favor in Middle East Gulf, mainly due to the spike recorded in the Caribs. Activity didn't pick up much in fact, but MEG/East easily reached the lows WS50’s and MEG/West the lows WS20’s. Same happened in West Africa where rates for east destination went up in the lows WS50’s. The Caribs market was extremely busy during the whole week, and the premium paid to the few owners willing to call Venezuela boosted rates even more, allowing Caribs/Korea to reach $ 6.65 mln. The Suezmax market out of West Africa saw rates slowly firming up and finally reaching the lows WS70s for UKC discharge. Little was going on in Med instead where the help provided by Turkish Straits delays couldn't prevent rates from Black Sea to soften down to the mid WS80’s. The Aframax market recorded a pretty slow week in Mediterranean and, as tonnage availability kept building up, Charterers had quite an easy job pushing rates down to WS90 for CrossMed. Rates in North Sea eventually bounced back as the increased demand helped Owners pushing rates back up to WS100 for CrossCont and in the mid WS95’s off Baltic. A positive week for Owners was recorded in the Caribs as well, with rates firming up in the mid WS140’s.

Crude Oil Tanker Market

6

Rates


-10,000

5,000

20,000

35,000

50,000

65,000

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

VLCC MEG-Far East (usd/day)

-5,0005,000

15,00025,00035,00045,00055,00065,00075,000

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

TD6 Suexmax BSea-Med (usd/day)

-15,000-5,0005,000

15,00025,00035,00045,00055,000

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

TD19 Aframax Med-Med (usd/day)

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000

Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19

1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

VLCC Suezmax Aframax

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19

1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

LR2 MR2

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

MR Pacific Basket (usd/day)

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

MR Atlantic Basket (usd/day)

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

TC1 LR2 MEG-Japan (usd/day)

tanker chartering banchero costa

Product Tanker Market

Delays at Turkish Straits for Daylight Restricted Vessels

East of Suez, LR2 rates for MEG/Japan gained 10 points to WS130 (around $22,500/d TCE) while MEG/UKC voyages that reached $2.6 mln. On the other hand, LR1 lost ground and settled at WS112.5 (around 10,750/d TCE). West of Suez, LR2 and LR1 on UKC/Japan routes recorded a slight loss, closing on Friday at $2.05 mln and $1.85 mln respectively. In Med, clean Handysize rates recorded another negative week with CrossMed settling at WS147,5 reported several times; on the other end, BlSea/Med rates reached WS180 levels. In Cont, Baltic/UKC rates on clean Handysizes eased to WS165 and CrossCont lost 10 points to WS145. Clean Mrs on Cont/TA routes reached WS137.5 level basis 37,000 mtwhile back hauls increased up to WS120 basis 38,000 mt. The Dirty market in Med saw Handysizes’ rates on BlSea/Med trades crashing by Friday at around WS207.5 with CrossMed following at WS200/205 level. The MRs market needs to be tested given that the latest CrossMed reported fixture of WS145 basis 45,000 mt dates back to the beginning of the week. In Cont Dirty Handys lost few points down on CrossCont routes to WS275 level basis 30,000 mt with MRs trading at around WS185ws on 45,000 mt. Dirty Panamax maintained WS120/125 levels for the Cont-Med/TA route.



TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) ws 128.75 120.00 +7.3% +48.2%

TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) usd/day 20,887 18,620 +12.2% +197.7%

TC8 MEG-UKC ( 6 5 k ) usd/mt 26.05 26.20 -0.6% +41.4%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) ws 112.78 119.22 -5.4% +6.0%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) usd/day 10,817 12,450 -13.1% +34.9%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) ws 138.33 135.00 +2.5% -15.5%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) usd/day 10,763 10,820 -0.5% -9.6%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) ws 119.06 79.69 +49.4% +13.1%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) usd/day 7,727 1,299 +494.8% +109.7%

TC9 Baltic-UKC ( 2 2 k ) ws 161.21 179.29 -10.1% -27.5%

TC6 Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 150.94 151.25 -0.2% -4.9%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) ws 183.67 189.11 -2.9% +12.4%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) usd/day 15,446 16,470 -6.2% +47.8%

TC11 SK-Spore ( 4 0 k ) usd/mt 10.94 11.54 -5.2% +30.1%

MR Pacific Basket usd/day 11,020 12,059 -8.6% +17.6%

MR Atlantic Basket usd/day 18,239 12,333 +47.9% +24.0%

LR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 19,000 19,000 +0.0% +35.7%

MR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 14,500 14,000 +3.6% +0.0%

TD12 Cont-USG ( 5 5 k ) ws 122.81 119.69 +2.6% +17.0%

TD18 Baltic-UKC ( 3 0 K) ws 272.50 280.00 -2.7% +63.1%

BSea-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 207.5 250.0 -17.0% +16.9%

Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 200.0 235.0 -14.9% +21.2%

Cle

anD

irty

Rates


Northbound days 16.0 17.0 -5.9% +433.3%

Southbound days 14.0 17.0 -17.6% +180.0%

600

700

800

900

1,000

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

Shanghai Container Freight Index

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

14/2/18 14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19

Geared - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

2500 1700 1100

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

14/2/18 14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19

Gearless - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

4250 3500 2700


ConTex index 386 387 -0.3% -11.3%

4250 teu (1Y, g’less) usd/day 8,879 8,968 -1.0% -2.6%

3500 teu (1Y, g’less) usd/day 8,758 8,856 -1.1% -6.0%

2700 teu (1Y, g’less) usd/day 8,744 8,739 +0.1% -7.0%

2500 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 9,036 9,014 +0.2% -4.2%

1700 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 7,268 7,288 -0.3% -22.7%

1100 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 6,313 6,347 -0.5% -9.7%

The container market was fairly active last week. The majority of deals focused on charter extensions and the largest demand on the 1,750/2,500 TEU size vessels.

banchero costa containers

VHSS Containership Timecharter Assessment (source: Hamburg Shipbrokers’ Association)

Containership Market

Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange)

8


Comprehensive Index index 888 934 -4.9% +2.4%

Services:

Shanghai - North Europe usd/teu 906 960 -5.6% +0.1%

Shanghai - Mediterranean usd/teu 820 962 -14.8% +3.7%

Shanghai - WC USA usd/feu 1,834 1,993 -8.0% +23.6%

Shanghai - EC USA usd/feu 2,968 3,054 -2.8% +7.3%

Shanghai - Dubai usd/teu 703 721 -2.5% +21.4%

Shanghai - Santos usd/teu 1,304 1,363 -4.3% -49.0%

Shanghai - Singapore usd/teu 153 156 -1.9% -5.0%


Recent Fixtures

Vessel Name Built TEUs TEU@14 Gear Fixture Period Rates

FRED 2007 2,741 2,116 no extended to WHL 4/6 m $8,500/d

MIAMI TRADER 2002 2,452 1,886 yes extended to MAERSK 3/6 m $8,500/d

AS SOPHIA 2007 1,713 1,259 yes extended to MAERSK 2/6 m $7,350/d

OKEE ALBA 2002 1,740 1,330 no fixed to OOCL 3/6 m $7,100/d

MANOLIS P 1995 1,388 1,014 yes extended to MSC 12 m $6,800/d

AS FLORETTA 2007 1,296 957 yes extended to CMA-CGM 5/8 m $8,650/d

Type Size Built Yard Buyers Price Comment

Bulk 210,000 dwt From 1H 2021 5 Chinese yards COSCO Shipping Bulk 880 16+14 units

Prod 50,000 dwt 2Q/3Q 2020 Hyundai Mipo Sinokor n.a. 4+2 units

Crude 310,000 dwt 4Q 2020 NACKS Iino Kaiun Kasha and

Mitsui Osk Lines 90 (each) 3 units

100

105

110

115

120

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

Yen/USD Exchange

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

USD/Euro Exchange

20

30

40

50

Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19

Newbuilding Prices (usd mln)

Ultramax LR2 MR2

3 yrs 5 yrs 7 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs 20 yrs

USD 2.60 2.58 2.62 2.69 2.79 2.82

Euro -0.07 0.14 0.36 0.66 1.02 1.18

Libor USD Libor Euro Euribor Euro

6 Months 2.75 -0.29 -0.23

12 Months 2.91 -0.17 -0.11

banchero costa

In the dry segment, most of activity was focused in China where COSCO Shipping Bulk signed LOI for 16 Newcastlemax (around 210k dwt) with option for further 14 (30 in total). Qindgao Beihai and Tanjin Xingang are going to build 3 units each, while the remaining ten to be built by COSCO Shipping HI Yangzhou, Dalian COSCO KHI Engineering and Nantong COSCO KHI Ship Engineering. These vessels will be use to transport bauxite under long term T/C to Aluminium Corp. of China. Delivery will start from the 1st half of 2021 with total value of the order to be around $880 mln. Pan Ocean signed 2 Newcastlemax at New Times Shipyard with delivery at the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. In the tanker sector, Sinokor moved for 4+2 optional MR tankers (around 50k dwt) at Hyundai Mipo Dockyard, with delivery during the 2Q and 3Q of 2020. Nantong COSCO KHI (NACKS) signed 3 VLCCs with Iino Kaiun Kasha (2) and Mitsui Osk Lines (1). Delivery from the 4Q 2020 and price reported to be around $90 mln each. In Japan, Valles Steamship returned to build LR2s with one unit (around 112k dwt) to be built at Sumitomo shipyard and with delivery at the end of 2020.

Newbuilding Market

Newbuilding Reported Orders

Indicative Newbuilding Prices (China)

sale & purchase

Interest Rates

Interest Rate Swaps

9

Unit 01-Feb-19 M-o-M Y-o-Y

Capesize usd mln 49.0 +0.1% +8.1%

Ultramax usd mln 26.3 -0.1% +6.1%

Supramax usd mln 23.2 -0.0% +5.5%

VLCC usd mln 83.9 +0.5% +6.8%

LR2 Coated usd mln 46.8 +0.2% +7.4%

MR2 Coated usd mln 33.8 +0.1% +2.5%

15-Feb 08-Feb W-o-W Y-o-Y

USD/Euro 1.13 1.13 -0.8% -9.9%

Yen/USD 100.5 109.7 -8.4% -5.3%

SK Won/USD 1,129 1,124 +0.4% +5.2%

Exchange Rates


TYPE VESSEL NAME DWT BLT YARD BUYERS PRICE NOTE

Bulk Tender Salute 95,000 2011 Imabari C.of Cobelfret 17

Bulk Danae 75,172 2001 Samho Undisclosed 7.2

Bulk Dione 75,106 2001 Samho Undisclosed 7.2

Bulk Alster Bay 55,430 2008 Kawasaki Greek buyers 11.75

Bulk Saubaagya 5 53,505 2002 Iwagi Chinese buyers 6.9

Crude Genmar Compatriot 72,000 2004 Dalian Greek buyers 6.8

Prod Queen Express 46,000 2009 Shin Kurushima Undisclosed 16

Prod Axelotl 37,000 2004 Hyundai Mipo Indonesian buyers 7.3

350

400

450

500

18/2/18 18/6/18 18/10/18 18/2/19

SubCon Demo Assessment (usd/ldt)

Dirty Tnk Clean Tnk Dry Bulk

15

20

25

30

35

18/2/18 18/6/18 18/10/18 18/2/19

Secondhand Values (usd mln)

Panamax Aframax MR


Dry Bulk usd/ldt 416.9 416.8 +0.0% -7.7%

Dirty Tanker usd/ldt 422.4 422.9 -0.1% -5.0%

Clean Tanker usd/ldt 420.5 421.0 -0.1% -5.1%

sale & purchase banchero costa

Secondhand Market

Baltic Secondhand Assessments

Baltic Demolition Assessment (Subcontinent)

10


Capesize usd mln 36.5 36.7 -0.4% +9.8%

Panamax usd mln 21.7 22.0 -1.5% +2.0%

Supramax usd mln 18.1 18.3 -1.1% +2.4%

VLCC usd mln 66.8 66.8 +0.0% +9.0%

Aframax usd mln 32.9 33.0 -0.0% +11.0%

MR Product usd mln 27.3 27.3 -0.0% +12.6%


On the bulker sector, the Post-Panamax “Tender Salute” around 95,000 dwt 2011 Imabari was reported sold at $17 mln to Cobelfret while the 75,000 dwt “Danae” and “Dione” both 2001 Samho built were sold at $7.2 mln each. The tick smaller 74,000 dwt “Pontonikis” 2002 blt Daewoo was reported sold at $6.8 mln. On the Supramax front the 55,000 dwt 2008 “Alster Bay”, Kawasaki built, was sold to Greek interest at $11.75 mln while the older 2002 built “Saubaagya 5” around 53,000 dwt Iwagi was reported sold at $6.9 to Chinese buyers. The 2003 “Paradise Bay” around 46,000 dwt Oshima built was sold for conversion project to self-discharger vessel at $9.8 mln. On the Tankers sector, “Genmar Compatriot around 72,000 dwt 2004 Dalian was reported sold to Greek buyers at $6.8 mln while the “Queen Express” around 46,000 dwt 2009 Shin Kurushima was committed at $16 mln. On the MR1 sector, “Axelotl” around 37,000 dwt 2004 Hyundai Mipo was reported sold at $7.3 mln to Indonesian buyers.

Secondhand Reported Sales

news banchero costa

Brazil's Vale resumes operations at Espírito Santo port terminal -filing Brazilian miner Vale SA will resume operations at a port terminal in Vitória, in the southeastern state of Espírito Santo, after reaching an agreement with local authorities, according to a securities filing last Wednesday. The authorities had closed the port terminal operated by the miner and fined it 35 million reais ($9.43 million) for throwing mining residues in the sea. Vale said the agreement foresees investment to improve residues treatment. China iron ore imports rise on pre-holiday restocking China's iron ore imports climbed 5.3 percent in January from December, customs data showed, supported by strong restocking demand at steel mills ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday this month. Shipments of the steelmaking raw material last month were 91.26 million tonnes, up from 86.65 million tonnes in December, but were still shy of 100.3 million tonnes in January last year, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. East Kalimantan production cut stokes concern on seaborne thermal coal prices: traders Indonesia has directed thermal coal mining companies holding the Izin Usaha Pertambangan, or IUP, mining license in East Kalimantan to cut production this year after these companies failed to fulfill their domestic market obligations, stoking fears of an imminent supply tightness in the near term, market sources said last Tuesday. The Ministry for Energy and Mineral Resources, or MEMR, is sanctioning miners who did not fulfill sufficient domestic sales in 2018, imposing a collective 52% cut in East Kalimantan's coal production. China Jan soybean imports slip 13 pct on year, tariffs on U.S. cargoes weigh China's soybean imports fell 13 percent in January from the same month a year earlier, customs data showed, as a hefty duty imposed on shipments from the United States, its second-largest supplier, curbed purchases. China brought in 7.38 million tonnes of soybeans in January, down from 8.48 million tonnes a year earlier. January's imports were up 29 percent from 5.72 million tonnes in December. Brazil farmers halt soy sales as real strengthens, China buys U.S. supplies Farmers have halted sales of Brazil's soybeans as port premiums swooned, the real currency strengthened and a pause in a trade war prompted top importer China to purchase soy from the United States, growers and trading companies said. Poor market conditions are also affecting planting decisions for Brazil's 2019/2020 crop that will be sown starting from September. Farmers generally buy inputs like seeds and fertilizers through barter arrangements with traders, used as a form of credit until the crop is harvested, and such deals are way behind schedule, farmers and companies said. Argentina soy crop forecast at 52 mln tonnes despite loss due to rain -exchange Argentina's soy crop is battling storms that have flooded some marginal growing regions while helping yields in prime farm areas, with one grains exchange increasing its harvest forecast while another warned it may cut its 2018/19 planting estimate. The country's soy crop should reach 52 million tonnes this season, up from 50 million tonnes previously forecast, the Rosario Grains Exchange said late on Wednesday. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange followed on Thursday with a report saying excessive rains may cause it to cut estimated planting area. Ukraine grain exports rise to 30.2 mln tonnes so far in 2018/19 Ukraine's grain exports have risen to 30.17 million tonnes so far in the 2018/19 season, up from 24.88 million tonnes at the same point in the previous season, the agriculture ministry said on Wednesday. Ukraine has said it harvested a record 70 million tonnes of grain last year, up from 61.3 million in 2017. The ministry said exports could rise to at least 47 million tonnes in the July 2018 to June 2019 season from 39.4 million the season before. China Jan aluminium exports hit record high; copper imports rise China's aluminium exports surged to a record high in January, according to customs data released on Thursday, as weak domestic demand led to another bumper month of shipments overseas. Exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products from China, the world's top producer of the metal, rose to 552,000 tonnes last month, the General Administration of Customs said. Brazil's next soy crop survey likely to show further decline -official Brazil’s next survey of the 2018/19 soy crop is likely to show a further decline in estimated output resulting from dry weather in January, Eduardo Sampaio, farm policy secretary at the Agriculture Ministry, said last Tuesday. The current survey showed a drop of roughly 3.5 million tonnes in output, from a previous survey in January, to 115.3 million tonnes of soy for the crop year, according to figures released by agriculture statistics agency Conab. But that survey was carried out before a period of dry weather in January had ended, Sampaio said. Source: Thomson Reuters/ Platts

Dry Bulk Commodities


news banchero costa

Oil & Gas

Global oil supply to swamp demand in 2019 despite output cuts - IEA The global oil market will struggle this year to absorb fast-growing crude supply from outside OPEC, even with the group's production cuts and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, the International Energy Agency said in a report on Wednesday. The IEA left its demand growth forecast for 2019 unchanged from its last report in January at 1.4 million barrels per day. OPEC cuts oil supply steeply but sees growing 2019 headwinds OPEC said last Tuesday it had cut oil production steeply under a global supply deal, although it flagged headwinds confronting its efforts to prevent a glut this year including weaker demand and higher rival output. In a monthly report, OPEC said its oil output fell almost 800,000 barrels per day in January to 30.81 million bpd. That is still slightly more than the demand OPEC expects for its crude on average in 2019. Trafigura halts oil trade with Venezuela - source Global commodities firm Trafigura has decided to stop trading oil with Venezuela due to U.S. sanctions on the OPEC nation's energy sector, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said. The decision will come as a blow to Caracas as Swiss-based Trafigura has a long-standing arrangement with state-run PDVSA to take Venezuelan crude and, in exchange, supply the Latin American country with refined products. India's oil imports from Iran plunged 45 pct in Jan y/y India's oil imports from Iran fell by 45 percent in January to 270,500 barrels per day oil (bpd), ship tracking data reviewed by Reuters showed, below the estimated 300,000 bpd for the month as some cargoes were delayed. The United States introduced sanctions aimed at crippling Iran's oil revenue-dependent economy in November but gave a six-month waiver to eight nations, including India, which allowed them to import some Iranian oil. S.Korea resumes Iranian oil imports in Jan, but at lower level South Korea resumed imports of Iranian oil in January after a four-month hiatus, customs data showed on Friday, but shipments were down 76 percent from the same month last year. The world's fifth-largest crude importer won a six-month waiver in November from U.S. sanctions on Tehran's oil exports, but did not immediately start imports, mainly due to payment and insurance issues. China's Jan crude oil imports rise from a year ago, gas imports at record China's crude oil imports in January rose 4.8 percent from a year earlier, customs data showed, with refineries building up their stockpiles ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays that fell in early February. Natural gas imports into the world's biggest importer of the fuel rose to a monthly record of 9.81 million tonnes, exceeding the previous peak in December of 9.23 million tonnes, as state-run importers hiked volumes in anticipation of increasing heating demand. As traders tussle over tankers, Turkmenistan slashes oil exports A clash between trading house Vitol and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR over Caspian Sea oil shipments is forcing Turkmenistan to slash exports of crude due to a lack of tankers. Turkmenistan typically exports about 200,000 tonnes of oil per year via the Caspian to world markets, mainly from fields operated by the UAE’s ENOC and Italy’s Eni, but flows have halved in recent weeks, six traders involved in operations said. That happened after Turkmen producers decided to export oil via Russia with the help of Swiss trader Vitol and ditch the previous Azeri route, operated by state-owned SOCAR. U.S. crude inventories rise to highest in more than a year - EIA U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week to the highest since November 2017 as refiners cut runs to the lowest since October 2017, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. The increase came despite falling net imports, which dropped to the lowest on record, as domestic crude production remained at peak levels for the fifth straight week. Scorpio maintains plan to install scrubbers despite port bans Scorpio Tankers said Thursday it will continue to install scrubber systems on 75 of its tankers, with options for 18 more retrofit installations, despite recent bans for open-loop scrubber systems in major ports such as Singapore and Fujairah on environmental concerns. Panama Canal Authority to lower draft restriction to 47 feet as of March 13 The Panama Canal Authority said Tuesday it will tighten the maximum draft restriction in the Neopanamax Locks to 47 feet, or 14.33 meters, starting March 13. The change further restricts the transit of Suezmaxes through the canal, and marks the third restriction announced in 2019 based on low projected water levels in Gatun Lake. Source: Thomson Reuters/ Platts

market report - week 7/2019 12

300

400

500

600

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

Wheat and Corn Prices (usd/t)

Corn Wheat

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

Steel Prices in China (rmb/t)

Rebar Plate

40

60

80

100

120

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

Iron Ore and Coal Prices (usd/t)

Steam Coal Iron Ore

40

50

60

70

80

90

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

Brent and WTI Oil Prices (usd/bbl)

Brent WTI

200

400

600

800

15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18 15/2/19

Bunker Prices @ Singapore (usd/t)

IFO 380 IFO 180 MGO


Wheat usd/t 504.3 515.8 -2.2% +10.1%

Corn usd/t 374.8 374.5 +0.1% +2.0%

Soybeans usd/t 907.5 917.0 -1.0% -11.4%

Palm Oil usd/t 556.4 563.0 -1.2% -13.6%


Iron Ore (Platts) usd/t 88.6 92.1 -3.9% +15.1%

Iron Ore China @Tangshan rmb/t 568.0 618.0 -8.1% +4.8%

Rebar in China rmb/t 3,907 3,853 +1.4% -4.5%

Plate in China rmb/t 4,120 4,094 +0.6% -5.0%

HR Coil in China rmb/t 3,911 3,877 +0.9% -8.1%

CR Sheet in China rmb/t 4,340 4,304 +0.8% -8.9%


Steam @ Richards Bay usd/t 82.6 86.1 -4.1% -14.5%

Steam @ Newcastle usd/t 95.0 97.8 -2.9% -9.3%

Coking Coal Australia usd/t 207.5 201.5 +3.0% -10.0%


Crude Oil Brent usd/bbl 66.5 61.9 +7.6% +2.4%

Crude Oil WTI usd/bbl 56.0 52.2 +7.3% -8.8%

Crude Oil Dubai usd/bbl 65.4 61.8 +5.9% +5.0%

Natural Gas Henry Hub usd/mmbtu 2.65 2.67 -0.7% +4.3%

Gasoline Nymex usd/gal 1.58 1.44 +9.7% -9.2%

ICE Gasoil usd/t 615.5 582.5 +5.7% +7.5%

Naphtha Tokyo usd/t 517.1 494.4 +4.6% -7.7%

Jet-Kerosene Asia usd/bbl 77.9 75.7 +3.0% -0.2%


Rotterdam usd/t 401.0 382.5 +4.8% +15.4%

Gibraltar usd/t 428.0 408.0 +4.9% +16.6%

Singapore usd/t 430.0 417.0 +3.1% +15.6%

Rotterdam usd/t 433.0 423.5 +2.2% +12.2%

Gibraltar usd/t 458.0 442.0 +3.6% +18.7%

Singapore usd/t 455.5 446.5 +2.0% +14.6%

Rotterdam usd/t 552.5 533.0 +3.7% -0.3%

Gibraltar usd/t 630.0 608.0 +3.6% +7.6%

Singapore usd/t 597.5 577.0 +3.6% +2.4%

IFO

38

0IF

O 1

80

MG

O

banchero costa commodities

Oil & Gas Prices

Coal Prices

Iron Ore and Steel Prices

Agricultural

Bunker Prices


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