bake-off bakery markets in europe - girafood · pdf filebake-off bakery markets in europe 2004...

© Gira 2016 GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report 1

Bake-off Bakery Markets in Europe

2004 - 2014/2015 - 2019

Mini Market Report

July 2016

© Gira 2016 GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report

Disclaimer

By using this Mini Market Report, the reader explicitly acknowledges that he or she has read this disclaimer and fully

accepts its contents.

All readers and users of this Mini Market Report recognise and accept that neither Girag & Associates Sarl (trading

as Gira) nor any members of its staff or its consultants accept any responsibility whatsoever for any loss or damage

incurred, including due to negligence, directly or indirectly, by any party as a result of decisions taken or actions

made by any party on the basis of any information, conclusions or statements contained in this Mini Market Report.

Copyright

Reproduction of any of the material in this Mini Market Report in any form whatsoever including electronic is strictly

forbidden without the prior written agreement of Girag & Associates Sarl.

2


Introduction

This Overview contains information and conclusions drawn from

our last study: "Bake-off Bakery Markets in Europe 2004-2014/15-

2019 New Challenges for the next 5 Years" and covering 20

individual country studies listed on the right which are an integral

part of this research programme.

Products covered are all bake-off products in the areas of: bread,

viennoiserie, patisserie, and savoury pastry snacks and in the context

of total bakery products consumption.

We analyse all distribution channels for fresh and bake-off products:

artisan bakers, modern retailers (hyper-, supermarkets and hard

discount), “other retail sectors” (small grocery stores, c-stores and

gas-stations), foodservice (commercial and social) and bakery chains.

AT Austria

BE Belgium

CH Switzerland

CZ Czech Republic

DE Germany

DK Denmark

EL Greece

ES Spain

FI Finland

FR France

HU Hungary

IE Ireland

IT Italy

NL The Netherlands

NO Norway

PL Poland

PT Portugal

SE Sweden

TK Turkey

UK United Kingdom

EU19 refers to the above

countries except Turkey

Work on the study was carried out between March and November

2015.

It has involved extensive documentary and on-line research in all

countries, and a major interview programme of a total of over 300

interviews with representatives of operators all along the bakery chain

and their associations and administrations.

3


Bakery products differentiation at consumer level (B2C products):

Bakery products: we cover each of bread, viennoiserie, patisserie and savoury pastry snacks (to be consumed hot)

Products technologies: fresh (un-packed or packed at the point of sales, shelf-life 1-2 days), prepacked "long-life"

(packed at industrial level, branded, sold at the ambient grocery counter, shelf-life over 2 days), prepacked for home-

baking (needs final baking/thawing at home).

Distribution circuits:

Retail: artisan bakers, modern retail (including hard-discount stores), "other retail" (convenience stores, petrol stations

and small grocery stores)

Foodservice: commercial HoReCa (restaurants and hotels, transport), social foodservice (education, workplace,

health/welfare), bakery and sandwich chains (more than 5 sales outlets).

Scope and definitions

Production methods:

Artisanal scratch production (artisanal scratch

baking at the point of sale, with the product directly

sold to the consumer)

• This is mainly to be found at bakers' shops and

in-store scratch baking units in hypermarkets

(also in some restaurants)

Industrial production encompasses:

• B2C prepacked "long-life" and home-baking

• Fresh finished products, daily delivered by

industrial bakers to the stores - to be re-sold

fresh

• B2B bake-off: frozen (or chilled) products, to be

baked at the point of sales and sold fresh.

• RTP: Ready to prove

• RTB: Ready to bake

• FB: Fully baked

4


Type Recipes & Formats Description

Bread

White, special, soft.

Baguette, loaves, small

breads.

Viennoiserie

French laminated dough,

Danish pastries, risen dough,

fried dough.

Family size, individual, mini.

Patisserie

Cakes, tarts, chou pastries,

multilayered cream cakes, US

pastries.

Family size, individual, mini.

Savoury

snacks

Tarts & pizzas, topped

bread, savoury puff

pastries to be eaten hot.

Individual size, mini.

Same definitions used in ALL countries, so products and data are comparable

Product definitions

5

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Croissant.jpg


EU19 bakery products consumption overview

Total consumption: 36.8 mio tons in 2015

6

Total EU19 bakery consumption was

assessed at 36.8 mio tons in 2015 and EUR

140 bn

Total consumption has decreased by 0.1%

pa between 2009 and 2015

Bread accounts for 79% of total bakery

products consumption by volume

Fresh products dominate consumption, with

70% of market volume

Towards 2019 consumption should see a

small increase per year, with growing fresh

consumption to the detriment of prepacked

long-life products.

Gira Bake-off 2015

Gira Bake-off 2015


Bakery products consumption by product

2015

Bread and fresh bakery products

dominate consumption

Bakery products consumption by technology

2015

7

Consumption by technology:

High share of fresh: TK, PT, IT, EL

High share of prepacked "long-life": UK/IE,

Scandinavia, CZ, DE.

Consumption by products:

High share of patisserie: UK

High share of viennoiserie: ES, FR, AT, CH

High share of savoury: TK, UK, NL.

Per capita bakery products consumption:

Highest: TK, DE, CZ and EL

Lowest : IT, NL and FI.

Gira Bake-off 2015 Gira Bake-off 2015


Some of the big issues affecting

the consumer bakery markets

8

Some big trends:

Snacking and eating-on-the-go

All forms of healthy and well-being

Environmental concerns and green issues

(waste, carbon footprint)

Economic crisis

Strong focus on origin.

Some consequences for bakery products:

Smaller formats

Clean label

Back to the roots: local products, local

recipes

Back to basics: more "artisanal", products

made from traditional, pure ingredients

Added value and specialties

Continuing development of "commodity"

products.

Gira Bake-off 2015

Gira Bake-off 2015

Gira Bake-off 2015

Gira Bake-off 2015


EU19 fresh bakery products distribution channels Modern retailers have equalled the artisan bakers

Growth % in fresh bakery products distribution, EU-19, 2014/2019

Fresh bakery products distribution by volume, 2015

9

In 2015, modern retailers fresh bakery sales volumes have equalled artisan bakers' ones Both sectors now accounting for 31% of distribution

Towards 2019: Best prospects are foreseen for bakery chains and the HoReCa sectors

Whereas modern retailers' growth will be slowed.

Gira Bake-off 2015

Gira Bake-off 2015


Bakery products consumption broken down by

type of supply, EU19, 2015

Bakery products consumption broken down

by type of producer

(% volume, baked weight)

Growth % in bakery products supply methods, EU19,

2014/2019

10

In 2015 industrial supply accounted for 67% of EU-19 total bakery product consumption, against 33% for

artisanal manufacturers

The share of industrial production is expected to reach 70% by 2019.



BREAD supply, EU19, 2015

Bakery products consumption broken down

by type of producer (2)

(% volume, baked weight)

11

VIENNOISERIE supply, EU19, 2015

PATISSERIE supply, EU19, 2015 SAVOURY PASTRY supply, EU19, 2015




FRESH bakery products supply strategies by channel

12

FRESH bakery products supply strategy by channel, EU19 – 2009, 2014, 2019f

From scratch baking is still the main fresh bakery products production method in the artisanal sector

Modern retailers is the only other sector where scratch baking is significant – but however decreasing

Apart from artisans, buying fresh bakery products and reselling them remains the main supply option

Bake-off now accounts for almost 40% of modern retailers' fresh bakery supplies

In all sectors anyway the bake-off option will increase.


Gira Bake-off 2015

Gira Bake-off 2015

Gira Bake-off 2015

EU19 bake-off bakery products market in 2015: over 7.5 mio tons (raw weight)

Bake-off bakery products consumption

by product - 2015

Bake-off bakery products consumption

by convenience level - 2015

Bake-off bakery products market by sector - 2015

(% volume, raw weight)

13


Bake-off bakery products usage by channel

14

Bake-off bakery products usage by channel, EU19 – 2009, 2014, 2019f

Artisan bakers tend to use predominantly ready-to-prove bread and above all viennoiserie

Modern retailers have switched to essentially ready-to-bake products and the trend will continue

Other retail sectors logically use the most convenient products

Foodservice sectors are heavy users of ready-to-bake products, and the use of fully-baked products will

increase in the future

Bakery chains use a rather similar pattern as modern retailers.


Bake-off industry structure: Typology of the companies analysed by Gira

15

Typology and market share of bake-off companies – 2014/15 (165 companies)

The 165 bake-off producers analysed by Gira in the Bake-off 2015 study may be classified into five categories:

6 "Pan-European" bake-off producers – achieving 25% market share by value: Aryzta (CH), Lantmannen Unibake (SE),

Vandemoortele (BE), Nutrixo/Délifrance (FR), La Lorraine Bakery Group (BE), CSM (USA)

14 "Large companies", with t/o > EUR 100 mio and entering the top 25 bake-off companies – 20% market share

"Integrated" companies (bakery chains and modern retailers) – 11% market share

Small and medium sized companies, with usually only one "national" plant – 44% market value.

The Top 10 bake-off producers accounted for about 34% of EU19 bake-off market value in 2014/15.


MARKET INSIGHTS: CONSUMPTION DATA & FORECASTS BY PRODUCT

Bread – Viennoiserie – Patisserie – Savoury pastry

BAKE-OFF EUROPEAN SYNTHESIS

Bake-off consumption – Production – Top manufacturers League Table

DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS, for each product

Artisan bakers – Modern retailers – Bakery chains – Other retail & C-stores – Foodservice sectors

Bake-off Bakery Markets study Coverage: Assessing all

the elements of bake-of markets and their competitive dynamics

FRESH BAKERY PRODUCTS PRODUCTION METHODS, for each channel

From scratch baking on-site – Buying & reselling fresh products – Bake-off

LEVEL OF CONVENIENCE IN BAKE-OFF PRODUCTS USED

Ready to prove – Ready to bake – Fully-baked/Thaw & serve

MARKET FOR BAKE-OFF

By product, channel & convenience level

BAKE-OFF PRODUCTION

By product & convenience level

DATA (for 2004, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2019f)

GAPS &

OPPORTUNITIES

Germany France

Netherlands

Ireland Sweden

Greece

UK Italy

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Poland

Hungary

Finland

Spain

Portugal

Turkey

Norway

Austria Belgium

Switzerland

16

bake-off bakery markets in europe - girafood · pdf filebake-off bakery markets in europe 2004...

Documents