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TRANSCRIPT
21/3/2012
1
Back to the Country of the Future:
Forecasts, European Crisis and the NewMiddle Classin Brazil (with special reference to women)
Coordination: Marcelo Neri
Executive Summary: Outline• Chronicle of a New Foretold Crisis
– New Year, New Crisis? (The W of the Question)– After the Crisis (a Tsunamy or a ripple?)– Is the Brazilian Inequality in its lowest historical level?
• The Future of the Brazilian New Middle Class– Measures of Polarization and Conceptualization of the Middle Class– Class Scenarios for 2014– The Great Decade (2004 to 2014)
• Life Satisfaction Expectation– The Country of the Future– The Collective of Brazilian
• Are Women more Optimistic than Men?– Female´s Future Felicity: The Biggest in the World– The Future of Women (Women of the Future)
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2
www.fgv.br/cps/ncm2014/eng
4,6%
6,1%
6,0%
4,0%
%
Renda MédiaAverage Income
Per Capita Income Changes over previous 12 Month
2,7%
0,5%
4
3,3%
0,9%
0,5%
0,5%
2,0% 2,7%
mai02 a mai08 mai08 a mai09 mai09 a mai10 mai10 a mai11 jun10 a jun11 jul10 a jul11
ago10 a ago11 set10 a set11 out10 a out11 nov10 a nov11 dez10 a dez11 jan11 a jan12
Source: CPS/FGV from the PME/IBGE microdata
All the major inflections of the income distribution over the last 20 years wereantecipated by PME www.fgv.br/cps/debatesocial Growth slows in the end of the year: post‐new crisis but also high initial basis in 2010 due to presidential election bussiness cycle and to the resumption from the previouscrisis. Growth accelerates again from October onwards until al least January 2012
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3
,7%
% %
1%4,6%
6,1%
,7%
Renda Média Gini PobrezaPovertyAverage Income
Recent Evolution
2
‐1,5%
‐7,5%
0,5%
0,3% 2,
‐1,9%
‐8,8%
‐1,2%
%
2
‐2,1%
‐7,9%
‐
‐11,7%
mai02 a mai08 mai08 a mai09 mai09 a mai10 mai10 a mai11 jan11 a jan12
Source: CPS/FGV from the PME/IBGE microdata
The combination of Growth and inequality fall lead to a fall in poverty.
Chronicle of the Crisis (until January 2012)• The european crisis hasn’t reached the pocket of theBrazilians at least not those in the basis of the distribution.
• Growth of per capita household income of 2,7% in 12Growth of per capita household income of 2,7% in 12 meses, matching with the growth from 2002‐08 andsuperior to the 0% produced in 2009 as a result of the 2008 crisis and the ‐4,57% from the Asian+ Russian crisis (end of1990s).
• In 12 months ended in January 2012 poverty falls 7,9%, y p ythree times faster than the UN Millenium Goal.
• In the 12 months ended in January 2012 the Gini falls at a 2,1%, rate almost 50% faster than the one from the firstyears of the last decade, which became known as theperiod of the fall of inequality,.
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4
0,58280,5902
0,6091
0,5957
0 56
0,58
0,6
0,62
Long-term Vision – The Minimum of Brazilian Inequality
0,53670,5448
0,5377
0,5190
0,48
0,5
0,52
0,54
0,56
0,46
1960# 1970 1979 1990 2001 2009 2010* 2012 Jan*
Source: CPS/FGV from microdata the PNAD (September), PME e Censo / IBGE e Langoni 1973. obs: PNAD adjusted by # Census e *PME.
The Brazilian Gini falls from 0.596 in 2001 to 0.519 in Janeiro 2012,almost 3.3% lower than its minimal historical level since 1960.
Evolution of Different Income Groups(50%‐, 40% e 10%+) Share in Income
36.41%
39.52%
38.47%
39.28%
40.11%
40.52%
50 ‐ 40 10 +
12.16%
12.09%
10.56%
12.12%
12.35%
12.16%
51.43%
48.40%
50.97%
48.60%
47.54%
47.32%
1976 1985 1989 1993 1995 1997
.30%
.20%
.72%
.78%
1.65%
1.78%
47.05%
47.25%
46.09%
45.12%
43.61%
42.83%
50 ‐ 40 10 +
12.65%
12.55%
13.19%
14.10%
14.74%
15.39%
40.
40.
40
40 41 414 4
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
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5
Polarization and Inequality: Parallels
0.25
0.26
0.26
0.27
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.25
50.61
.60
0.60
.60
.60
60 0.588
0.5960.6040.612
0 2550
0.2600
0.2650
0.2700PER
Gini0
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.23
0.23
0.58
0. 0 0 0
0.59
0.6
0.59
0.58
0.57
0.57
0.56
0.56
0.55
0.54
0.5400.5480.5560.5640.5720.580
0.2300
0.2350
0.2400
0.2450
0.2500
0.255092
93
95
96
97
98
99
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
Inequality in Per Capita Familiar IncomePOF and PNAD are Very Similar
72768084889296
100
PNAD 2002‐2003
POF 2002‐2003
812162024283236404448525660646872
Renda
048
1 4 710
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
55
58
61
64
67
70
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
100
População
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
As the difference resumes into the means and our classes were defined by the relativedistribution, we just need to multiply the values of the PNAD by the POF factor,mantaining the same proportions in each class.
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6
Measures of Polarization andConceptualization of Middle Class
• The EGR strategy generates brackets of income classes of theincome distribution observed in practice. The brackets chosenincome distribution observed in practice. The brackets chosenwere the ones which better distinguish the 3 groups in a sense that they select the lowest possible differences insidethem and on the other hand maximize the differencesbetween groups. We initially calculated the brackets ofincome for the case of 3 segments (AB, C e DE) .
• Wemade an adjustment in the brackets of classes by the POF,We made an adjustment in the brackets of classes by the POF, which is the most complete in capturing different incomesources, but without changing the percentages themselves.
Definição das Classes Econômicas
Classes and Total Household Income (calculated by per capita terms)
Definition of Economic Classes
limitesInferior Superior
Classe E 0 1085Classe D 1085 1734Classe C 1734 7475Classe B 7475 9745Classe A 9745
Limits
Class EClass DClass CClass BClass A
* ajustado pela POF** atualizado a preços de julho de 2011
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
*Adjusted by POF**Updated to July 2011 Prices
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7
Classes Scenarios until 2014 Per Capita Familiar Income (R$) by State of the FederationIncome Levels in 2009 Income Variation 2001 a 2009
Menos de 10%d 10% 20%
Aumento Acumulado da RendaFamiliar Per Capita - 2001-2009
Renda Per Capita Média 2009226.72 - 609.15609.15 - 991.58991.58 - 1374.01 de 10% a 20%
de 20% a 30%de 30% a 40%Mais de 40%
1374.01 - 1756.441756.44 - 2138.87
Fonte: CPS/FGV a partir dos microdados da PNAD/IBGE
Evolution of the Mean Per Capita Household Income by UFs1993, 1995, 2003, 2009 e 2014
1993
1995
2003
2009 2014
Renda Per Capita Média 1993226.717 - 609.15609.15 - 991.58991.58 - 1374.011374.01 - 1756.441756.44 - 2138.87
Renda Per Capita Média 1995226.72 - 609.15609.15 - 991.58991.58 - 1374.011374.01 - 1756.441756.44 - 2138.87
Renda Per Capita Média 2003226.72 - 609.15609.15 - 991.58991.58 - 1374.011347.01 - 1756.441756 44 2138 87
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
1756.44 - 2138.87
Renda Per Capita Média 2009226.72 - 609.15609.15 - 991.58991.58 - 1374.011374.01 - 1756.441756.44 - 2138.87
Renda Per Capita Média 2014 226.74 - 609.15609.15 - 991.58991.58 - 1374.011374.01 - 1756.441756.44 - 2138.87
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8
54,77
485,53
520,00
500,00
550,00
Median Per Capita Household Income
Future Scenarios
251,01
265,29
286,08
316,41
335,31
359,87
375,00
45
200,00
250,00
300,00
350,00
400,00
450,00
,
,
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
8 50 7,65
30,25
729,22
766,25
805,54
700
750
800
850
Mean per Capita Household Income
Future Scenarios
477,89
492,45
524,74
572,68
585,5
617
63
400
450
500
550
600
650
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
Looking to the future is also to review expectations over time. We superestimated themean income growth in our forecasts but underestimate the inequality componentIn a way that the two errors cancel each other reasonably well, resulting in the fact thatthe ascendent trajectories of the upper classes are mantained. It increases the relativeweight of the inequality effect versus pure income effects in the distributional changeobserved.
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9
0,58298
0,5711
0,56823
56227
01
0 57
0,58
0,59
Gini Index
Future Scenarios ‐ Inequality
0,5
0,5550
0,5486
0,54476
0,52618
0,52008
0,51407
0,51
0,52
0,53
0,54
0,55
0,56
0,57
0,5
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
Composição de Classes 1992 a 2014*
The inequality impact: scenarios of the same
Prospective Classes Scenarios
Class Composition 1992 to 2014*
Composição de Classes 1992 a 2014 Avaliando o Impacto da Desigualdade**
growth with inequality fallingX no fall (that menas, just growth):The proportion of the classe C population in 2014 :60,1% with inequality fallingX 56,4% with pure growth.
The inequality‐effect considers the differences ofGrowth between states and the ones within
Class Composition 1992 to 2014*Assessing Inequality Impact
*crescimento de classes projetado de 2010 a 2014– com redução de desigualdade ** crescimento de classes projetado de 2010 a 2014 – com e sem redução de desigualdade
Growth between states and the ones withineach state (a separate model for each)
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
*class growth forecasted onwards 2010 to 2014 – with inequality reduction** class growth forecasted onwards 2010 to 2014 – with and withouti nequality reduction
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10
28,12
25,4
22,8
19,32
18,26
16,02
15,32
10,92
9,6
8,59
26,73
27,16
27,06
26,35
25,11
24,35
23,62
19,31
17,83
16,36
Classe E - % Classe D - %
Forecasts to 2014 (with inequality-effect and growth effect combined) – Economic Classes
8
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
56
9,73
41,81
44,94
46,9 49,22
50,45
56,89
58,75
60,19
6 71
8,32 9,4 9,74
10,41
10,61 12,87
13,82
14,85
Classe C - % Classe AB - %
37,5 39 4
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
7,6 7,7 8
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
28,30
25,50
22,83
19,40
18,34
15,97
15,14
10,72
9,39
8,41
27,95
25,3
22,78
19,23
18,17
16,06
15,5
1,11
9,8
775
10
15
20
25
30Homem
Mulher
Classe E Classe D
26,81
27,19
27,12
26,16
24,95
24,17
23,46
19,22
17,74
16,2326,65
27,14
27,01
26,52
25,26
24,52
23,78
19,4
7,92
4915
20
25
30
Homem
Future Scenarios of Classes opened by gender
11 9
8,7
0
5
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
17
16,4
10
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Mulher
Classe C Classe AB
7,37
39,68
41,78
45,08
46,95
49,45
50,81
57,20
59,09
60,57
,61
8,43
9,84
50
60
70
52
,64
8,27 9,35
9,76
10,41
10,59 12,86
13,77
14,79
2,87
13,85
14,91
10
12
14
16
37 3
37,73
39,78
41,85
44,8
46,85 49
50,1 56,
58 5
10
20
30
40
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Homem
Mulher
7, 7, 8
7,66
7,78
8,37 9,45
9,71
10,42
10,62 1
2
4
6
8
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Homem
Mulher
Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata
As an economic class is a household concept there is no difference between men andwomen, that’s why individual concepts such as education, income and happiness are more relevant in terms of gender .
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11
Evolution of the Population Share of Class ABC between Brazilian States 1993, 1995, 2003, 2009 e 2014
1993
1995
% Classe ABC 199513.01 - 28.3228.32 - 43.6343.63 - 58.9358.93 - 74.2474.24 - 89.55
% Classe ABC 2003
% Classe ABC 199313.01 - 28.3228.32 - 43.6343.63 - 58.9358.93 - 74.2474.24 - 89.55
2003
2009 2014
% Classe ABC 200313.01 - 28.3228.32 - 43.6343.63 - 58.9358.93 - 74.2474.24 - 89.55
% Classe ABC 200913.01 - 28.3228.32 - 43.6343.63 - 58.9358.93 - 74.2474.24 - 89.55
% Classe ABC 201413.01 - 28.3228.32 - 43.6343.63 - 58.9358.93 - 74.2474.24 - 89.55
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
Populational Pyramid and Economic Classes 2003, 2011 e 2014
65.879.496105.468.908 118.013.742
13.330.25022.526.223
29.116.200
In the 2003‐14 period, 52,1 million people will join class C and another 15,7 million onclasses AB. A total of 67,8 million, bigger than the UK population.Remarkably, given the contraction of consumer markets in developed countries.
96.205.81463.592.062 48.919.137
Classe DE Classe C Classe AB
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
y, g p
Time changes: Class C: + 40 million people in 2003‐11 and + 13 million in 2012‐14. Classes AB: + 9,2 million people from 2003 to 2011 and + 7,7 million from 2012 to 2014.
AB population will grow proportionally more than C: 29,3% and 11,9%, respectively.We’ll talk more and more about New Class AB in the future as we did up to now withrespect to the so called New Class C.
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12
8.825.702 12.930.328
13.330.250
Populational Pyramid and Economic Classes 1993, 1995 e 2003
92.868.780 83.296.780 96.205.814
45.646.118 55.359.38965.879.496
Classe DE Classe C Classe AB
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
From the changes in 1993‐2003 period, a big one was between 1993 and 1995, originated by the Real Plan boom occured after July 1994.
Populational Pyramid and EconomicClasses 1993 e 2014
8 825 702
29.116.200
92.868.78048.919.137
45.646.118118.013.742
8.825.702
Classe DE Classe C Classe AB
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
Changes in forecasted classes between 1993 and 2014 indicates 21 million peoplemigrating to the classes AB and 83 million to the class C.
These actually configure remarkable decades after the so called Brazilian lost 1980’s and beginning of 1990s.
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13
Future Happiness (Life Satisfaction in Five Years) ‐ 2015
Felicidade Futura ︵2015 ︶
2.8 - 44 - 5.195.19 - 6.396.39 - 7.587.58 - 8.78No Data
Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Poll
8,00
9,00
10,00
World Future Happiness ‐ 2015
Brazil is the world champion of Future Happiness in 2015 (actuallyfour‐times champion in the 4 CPS/FGV Researches on the topic)
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
0,00
1,00
Brazil
Panam
aColombia
Qatar
Swed
enDen
mark
United
Arab Emirates
Canada
Israel
New
Zealand
Angola
Switzerland
Ghana
South Africa
Chile
Malaw
iNetherlands
Trinidad
and Tobago
Nigeria
Argen
tina
Thailand
Belize
Mauritania
Guatem
ala
Mongolia
Peru
Italy
Singapore
Belgium
France
Kazakhstan
Cyprus
Honduras
Malaysia
Djibouti
Indonesia
Montenegro
Philippines
Laos
Nam
ibia
Spain
Congo
Jordan
Niger
Albania
Cam
eroon
Congo(Rep
ublic of the)
Nicaragua
Tunisia
Algeria
Côte d'Ivoire
Madagascar
Russian Fed
eration
Taiwan
Benin
China
Japan
Poland
Comoros
Ethiopia
Iraq
Mauritius
Ken
yaUkraine
Pakistan
Afghanistan
Estonia
Lithuania
Egypt
Latvia
Haiti
Togo
Greece
Portugal
Arm
enia
Maced
onia
Romania
Syrian
Arab Rep
ublic
Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Poll
21/3/2012
14
Future Felicity Index (FFI) World Rank – 2015 BRICS, PIIGS & BIGs
IFF Rank IFF RankBrazil 8.6 1 Mali 6.6 86Costa Rica 8.2 6 Congo 6.5 91Denmark 8.1 11 Turkey 6.5 96Ireland 8.0 16 Morocco 6.4 101Switzerland 7.8 21 Russian Federation 6.4 105U. Kingdom 7.7 26 Senegal 6.4 106South Africa 7.7 27 China 6.2 111Netherlands 7.6 31 Slovenia 6.2 116Austria 7.5 36 India 6.1 119Argentina 7.4 41 Iraq 6.1 121Uruguay 7.3 46 Sri Lanka 6.0 126Peru 7.2 51 Estonia 5.8 131Italy 7.1 56 Egypt 5.7 136France 7.0 61 Haiti 5.4 141Germany 7.0 62 Greece 5.3 145Honduras 6.9 66 Portugal 5.2 146Indonesia 6.8 71 Macedonia 5.0 151Bangladesh 6.7 76 Syrian Arab Republic 4.7 156Spain 6.7 81
Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Poll
Future Felicity Index (FFI)
• FFI allows us to reconcile two qualifications awarded to Brazil: country of the future and young country (because the future happiness falls with age see next slide)
• The “Brasileiro, Profissão Esperança” (Brazilian, ProfessionHope) is also the spirit of the new middle class, that life willimprove.
• The expectation of the nation is almost two points lower thanthe sum of happiness of each brazilian. The problem is more from Brazil than from each Brazilian.
• How can each Brazilian expect so much for his/her life and at• How can each Brazilian expect so much for his/her life and atthe same time give a grade so low to the life of all? The grade of all can’t overcome the nation mean grade.
• The Brazilian major problems were not (or are) individual, butcollective: inequality, inflation, informality, violence, lack ofdemocracy, corruption etc. We can evolve a lot as a society.
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15
Life Satisfaction with respect to different moments & Life Cycle (Age)
7
7.5
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79
Passado Presente Futuro
Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Poll microdata
Past Present Future
Who is expect higher happiness: males orfemales?In the World:
• Women report greater happiness than men: in the future (6.74 women X 6.69 men), in the present (5.35 women X 5.31 men) and in the past (4.94 from women against 4.92 from men).
• Single women are happier than married ones? Data indicates that singlewomen show mean future happiness of 7.28 against 6.68 of marriedones.On the other hand, unmarried women show lower levels of happiness(separated 6.57 and divorced 6.46). In the widows case, the means are lower: 5.6.
• Women with children under 15 years of age report greater life satisfactiont ti (7 02) th th h d ’t (6 73)expectation (7.02) than those who don’t (6.73).
• However, there is a particular age effect happening on people’s future happiness. The younger the person, more future happiness, which couldexplain the fact that unmarried are more optimistic than widows for example.
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16
After all, who is expects higher happiness: married women or single ones?
In the World: • Comparing women at the same age bracket (25 to 29 years). Data indicates
that single women have a mean future happiness of 7.4, against 7 frommarried. The “mismatched” show lower levels of happiness (both separatedand divorced have 6.6). In the widows case, the means are even lower 5.4.and divorced have 6.6). In the widows case, the means are even lower 5.4.
• There is evidence that future happiness of those that stay unmarried fallsmore as age increases. For example, at the 50 to 54 years bracket it falls to 6.2, against 6.4 of married, reversing positions.
• In order to compare with a llok on statistical significance, we ran a multinomial ordered logit model that informs us that taking females withth b f i hild li i t th t t ( llthe same age, number of minor children, living at the same country etc (allstatistically different between themselves) happiness expectation is in descending order (unmarried, married, consensual unions, separated, divorced and widow.
Felicidade Futura Fem.2 58 4
Gender, Geography and Future Happiness (2011), Life Satisfaction in 5 Years, by gender
2.58 - 44 - 5.195.19 - 6.396.39 - 7.587.58 - 8.98No Data
Females
Felicidade Futura Masc.2.58 - 44 - 5.195.19 - 6.396.39 - 7.587.58 - 8.98No Data
Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Pollmicrodata
Males
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17
IFF Rank IFF Rank IFF Rank Mundo
6.74 - 6.69 - 0.05
- Americas
7.22 - 7.1 - 0.12
- brazil 8.98 1 8.56 1 0.42 0
denmark 8.51 3 8.52 2 -0.01 1
ireland 8.42 4 8.23 5 0.19 -1
switzerland 7.96 18 7.67 24 0.29 -6
united kingdom 7.89 22 7.68 23
0.21 -1
argentina 7.82 23 7.5 29 0.32 -6
costa rica 7.78 24 7.86 17 -0.08 7
austria 7.76 25 7.63 25 0.13 0
france 7.73 26 7.72 21 0.01 5
netherlands 7.67 29 7.44 34 0.23 -5
egypt 7.32 43 6.71 69 0.61 -26
IFF
2011
gyp
spain 7.28 45 7.43 36 -0.15 9
italy 7.28 44 6.94 54 0.34 -10
morocco 7.27 46 6.95 53 0.32 -7
senegal 7.21 47 7.01 50 0.2 -3
honduras 7.17 51 7.25 43 -0.08 8
mali 7.13 52 7.46 31 -0.33 21
uruguay 7.12 53 7.08 48 0.04 5
south africa 6.87 61 6.8 63 0.07 -2
greece 6.81 62 6.2 92 0.61 -30
india 6.76 64 6.87 57 -0.11 7
germany 6.67 71 6.91 56 -0.24 15
peru 6.62 75 6.68 71 -0.06 4
china 6.61 76 6.44 85 0.17 -9
indonesia 6.57 79 6.23 91 0.34 -12
Women
X
sri lanka 6.32 89 6.31 87 0.01 2
turkey 6.26 92 5.44 122 0.82 -30
bangladesh 6.16 94 5.85 109 0.31 -15
estonia 6.37 88 6.47 83 -0.1 5
russia 6.1 101 6.3 88 -0.2 13
slovenia 5.89 104 6.47 84 -0.58 20
portugal 5.68 113 6.02 102 -0.34 11
macedonia 5.48 123 5.5 121 -0.02 2
iraq 5.46 124 5.4 124 0.06 0
haiti 5.01 130 5.18 127 -0.17 3
zimbabwe 4.04 132 4.03 132 0.01 0
Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Poll microdata
Men
Females Males Difference
Who is happier?: Brazilian females or males?
• The Brazilian women are happier than men in the future(8.98 her against 8.56 his) and in the present(6.73 heragainst 6.54 his).
• An statistical model which shows that no country hasfuture happiness levels (with and without statisticalcontrols (age, etc)) higher than that found in Brazil.
• No other country reveals future happiness genderdifferences more favorable to females than Brazil.
• Concluding: Brazil is not only the world champion infuture happiness on female and male leagues, but alsowith respect to differences between genders, with womenon top.
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Future Happiness Simulator
Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Poll microdata
http://www.fgv.br/cps/bd/ncm2014/IndiceFelicidade_eng/index.htm
Why women are happier than men in Brazil?Mean Schooling – age over 25 years:
89 7,04 7,23
7,37
7,5
8
5,06
5,16
5,28 5,44
5,50
5,64
5,69 5,94 6,11
6,24 6,39
6,50 6,70
6,84 7,01 7,16
4,91 5,06 5,25 5,4 5,51
5,64
5,75 6,05 6,22 6,37 6,54
6,66 6,
4,5
5
5,5
6
6,5
7
Homem
Mulher
Males
Females
4
,
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
There was a reversion in adult population schooling by gender: was 5,1 in 1992 (his), against 4,91 (her) and passes to 7,2 (his) against 7,4 (her) in 2009.1996 was the year females overtook males
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
21/3/2012
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Mean Individual Income:: Income
37,68
38,02
40,63
44,45
68 ,56
77
0 8 ,06
41,05
58,62
94,72
06,54
804
904
571,85
611,01 73 73 74 74
671,6
691,
682,
637,80
651,8
688,
74 75
79
80
215,49
224,26
296,83
313,41
316,41
328,13
312,53
340,05
348,66
331,38
347,62
376,04
419,39
426,95
455,31
468,31
4
104
204
304
404
504
604
704
804
Homem
MulherFemale
Male
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
There was a reduction in the income differential between men and women. It was 62% in 1992, and it is 42% in 2009.
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
Other Income Sources (Individual)
487,08
519,76 631,32
629,82
631,57
618,54
550,17
569,31
559,34
520,66
531,49
558,64
603,58
623,36
649,94
658,65
304
404
504
604
704
804
Homem
Mulher
Males
Labor
Female
84,77
91,25
106,36
108,20
109,06
125,91
121,51
122,25
123,43
117,14
120,39
129,42
37,47
135,26
144,78
147,89
3 8 1 22
5,96
141,61
138,57
152,51
155,6
104
124
144
164
157,1
160,37
216,42
228,16
227,59
231,16
214,93
233,92
238,18
222,07
231,4
250,08
277,78
288,38
302,8
312,71
4
104
204
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Non Labor
13 1 1
58,39
63,89
80,41
85,25
88,82
96,97
97,6
106,13
110,4
109,3
116,2
125
4
24
44
64
84
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Homem
Mulher
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
Males
Females
1996 was the year females overtook males in other income sources Bolsa Familia, Retirementbenefits
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Income Variation
2001 2009 Var
Mean Individual IncomeMean Individual Income
Male 691.56 806.54 16.63%
Female 340.05 468.31 37.72%
Labor Income
Male 569.31 658.65 15.69%
Female 233.92 312.71 33.68%
Income from Other Sources
Male 122.25 147.89 20.97%
Female 106.13 155.6 46.61%
Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata
15 a 60 years – Total
Gender
Income from
Hour‐Wage(Positive
Income) byYears ofSchooling
Years ofSchooling
WorkedHours
EAPOccupation
RateParticipationRate on Labor
Labor Income Decomposition
Category YearIncome fromall Labors
Schooling Schooling Hours Rate Rate on Labor Marketx x x x
Man
2011 1264,88 3,98 9,74 44,02 0,91 0,81
2003 647,88 2,51 8,61 44,96 0,82 0,81
AccumulatedGrowthRate(%) 95,23% 58,57% 13,12% ‐2,09% 10,98% 0%
2011 693,6 3,06 10,45 39,97 0,88 0,62
2003 314 65 1 89 9 3 39 75 0 76 0 59
Woman
2003 314,65 1,89 9,3 39,75 0,76 0,59
AccumulatedGrowthRate(%) 120,44% 61,9% 12,37% 0,55% 15,79% 5,08%
Source: CPS/FGV from PME/IBGE microdata
In the 2003‐11 period, the labor income differential falls because of the wage‐effect, but mainly because of the greater “effort to labor” (working journey, occupation andlabor participation)
21/3/2012
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Learn more about the Center for Social Policies researches at www.fgv.br/cps
NewMiddle Class
•Visit the Saraiva website
Marcelo Neri releases the book published by Editora Saraiva
• March 7th, 2012, Wednesday, from 19h.• Bolsa de Valores (BOVESPA)• Rua XV de Novembro, 275, 1º andar, Centro ‐ São Paulo ‐ SP•• March 9th, 2012 ‐ Friday, from 19h.• Livraria da Travessa (Travessa Bookstore) in Shopping Leblon• Av. Afrânio de Melo Franco, 290 ‐ Leblon ‐ Rio de Janeiro – RJ