autumn2004 (c) university of surrey satcommsa - part final - b g evans final.1 satellite...

Autumn2004 (c) University of Surrey SatCommsA - Part Final - B G Evans final.1

Satellite Communications APart - Final

The Future-Professor Barry G Evans-


Timeline - development of commercial satcom (1/2)

1945 Arthur C Clarke

1956 First transatlantic telephone cable

1962 Telstar

1964 Intelsat founded

1965 Earlybird

1969 Intelsat completes global system

1976 Marisats launched

1977 Eutelsat created

1979 Inmarsat created

1982 Inmarsat starts operations

1983 Eutelsat F1 launched


Timeline – development of commercial satcom (2/2)

1984 PanAmSat founded

1985 SES Astra incorporated

1987 Iridium conceived

1988 First transatlantic fibre cable

1988 First PanAmSat launch

1989 First SES Astra launch

1995 PanAmSat completes global system

1998 Iridium service launch

1999 Iridium in Chapter 11

2001 Intelsat & Eutelsat privatisations


Where we are now (1)

Satcom applications:• Vsat + business TV• Broadcast + content

delivery• TV distribution &

contribution• Internet trunking• Internet access

•Basic telephony + private circuits

•Mobile + transportable + offshore

•Thin route + rural remote•Disaster, emergency•Government



Disadvantages of satellite:• Low capacity (compared to fibre)• End-to-end delay (with Geo technology)• Large, up-front investment; long time to pay back• Implementation risks• Exit costs• Regulatory constraints/finite raw materials (orbital

slots; spectrum; licensing/market access)



Advantages of satellite:

• Wide area coverage• Global reach• Low cost per site passed• Fast set-up & reconfiguration• Availability where terrestrial alternatives are

poor, non-existent or not an option• Ability to broadcast/multicast


Industry revenues in 2000

• Worldwide satellite industry revenues

– Manufacturing $ 18.3 B– Launch $ 9.6 B– Services $ 37.0 B– Ground Equipment $ 17.7 B

Total $ 82.6 B

SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact Sheet, 5 June 2000


Satellite services revenues 2000

– Transponder leasing $ 8.8 B– DTH $ 24.7 B– MSS (telephony) $ 0.4 B– VSAT $ 1.4 B– MSS (data) $ 1.3 B– Remote sensing $ 0.4 B

Total $ 37.0 B



Satellite services customers 2000

• DTH– Subscribers 67.0 M

• VSAT– Units in operation 610,000

• MSS– Data units in operation 854,000– Telephony units in operation 274,300



Global projections

• Projected revenues of the satellite industry– 2001 $ 100.0 B– 2010 $ 200-300.0 B

• Projected subscribers to digital radio– 2010 50 M

• Projected revenues from broadband services– 2008 $ 37 B.

SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact Sheet, 5 June 2000; ISBC State of the Space Industry 2000; Pioneer Consulting


Satellite is essential infrastructure

• Broadcasting to businesses and homes (DTH)• Broadcasting to cable head-ends

– Cable TV distribution dependent upon satellite

• ISP connectivity; caching; multicasting– Distribution of internet content

• Private Networks– VSAT networks key corporate private network

• SNG– Broadcast stations and news bureaus rely on satellite

links.


Changing Scenes

• 1995 – Bright prospects for terrestrial mobile and satellites

• 2000 – Terrestrial mobile booming satellites collapse with Iridium/Globalstar failures

• 2002 – Satellite broadcasting and Internet booming terrestrial 3G in Doldrums

“Our ability to predict the telecoms market and to provide affordable services is poor”


2002: What’s new

• Internet drives FSS

• DVB – Direct TV success

• Satellite radio (DAB/DARS) prospects

• Mobile SPCN’s crash –end of constellations?

• INMARSAT niche still strong


General Climate of Change (1/3)

• Deregulation / Liberalisation– Inmarsat / Intelsat / Eutelsat: private companies– Global operations via acquisitions

• 1. SES-Global (>$1billion turnover)• 2. Intelsat• 3. Panamsat• 4. Eutelsat

– Consolidation of manufacturers• Europe: Alcatel Space, Astrium, Alenia• US: Boeing, Lockheed, Loral



• Standards– Satellite moving same way as Mobile –GMR

standards and now S-UMTS

• Spectrum– Limited (WRC00 – Little for satellites)– Sharing/Pricing –Satellite advantage– Efficiency –Can satellites provide?



• Convergence– Fixed/Mobile/Broadcasting– Service mobility– Billing convergence

• Investment –Changes rapidly – Satellites poor at moment

• Competition –Cable, fixed radio, HAPS


Where we are now

• Total satcom industry revenues were $27 Bn in 2000 (around 3% of global telecom revenues) - Source: ESA

• Internet via satellite services generated $800M global revenues in 2000, from zero in 1997 - Source: DTT Consulting

• Total satcom industry revenues are projected to grow to $106 Bn by 2007. The majority of the growth will come from broadband data and video services. Interactive multimedia revenues are forecast to be $18Bn by 2007, DARS $9Bn - Source: ESA


Lessons to learn (1)

Commercial:

• A “big-bang”, high-profile service launch date is unwise• There is no such thing as a global service launch• The satellite owner/operator will be badly let down by

uncommitted or poorly-performing distributors• Bad news about one satellite project is bad news for all• Satellite systems can not charge whatever they like• Confirmed access to spectrum is vital• Market access is crucial to business success• The first to market is not necessarily the winner• Finding killer applications is difficult



Financial:

• Year one forecasts must be realistic• The investors are highly dependent on the

performance of the distribution chain.• Financing a start-up satellite system is very hard • Do not rely on investment banks• Exit costs are extremely high• Flotation too soon leads to exposure and inflexibility



Technology:

• The satellite manufacturer will not deliver on time• Be realistic about time to market • Do not design a satellite system around just one

application• User terminals can be among the most difficult elements

in a “mass-market” satellite project• Good technology does not assure commercial success• Alternative, non-satellite technologies do not stand still• Do not underestimate the complexity and costs of non

Geo systems



Service:

• Motivating distributors is vital• It is essential to have service delivery experience at the

forefront• For the mass-market, continuous service availability is

very important• User expectations must be carefully managed • Distribution strategy must be coherent and focussed • Service provision/distribution channels must be aligned

closely with the overall interests of the enterprise. They must be up to speed right at the start

• Service and useful functions are the ultimate deliverables


Rememberthe advantages of Satellite

• Wide area coverage –broadcast

• Quick roll-out of services

• Provides wide bands (high bit rates)

• Coverage areas that are expensive for terrestrial

• Avoids terrestrial infrastructure


FSS - Focus on the Internet

• Satellite delivery of IP-based services increased 800% over past two years

• 11% of all ISPs use some satellite links to connect to the Internet backbone

• By 2001 total ISP demand for satellite links will equal 216 transponders

• Internet specific satellite transponder lease revenue will jump from $601M in 2001 to $8.5B in 2006

• End-user and ISP satellite multicast equipment to reach over $7B in 2005.

DDT Consulting; Frost & Sullivan; Pioneer Consulting


Internet Services

• 30-40% Intelsat resources now IP• Multicasting from satellites• Caching provision offers improved bandwidth and response

times• Satellite products available – Comsat

– CLA 2000• TCP/IP

• Spoofing

• Slow start/Variable windows

– LINKWAY 2000• Multiservice BOD

• ATM/IP/FR/ISDN

• IP routing protocols (RSVP)

• BOD adaption


Broadband

• Ka and constellations lost momentum

• Back to GEO’s and DVB-S

• IP to the customer DVB-RCS

• e-Europe / Broadband Britain – Satellite role

• 4500 (36MHz equivalent transponders) 7000 by 2007


Satellite Direct To Home (DTH)

• 67M subscribers globally - urban, suburban and rural

• 25M satellite households in Western Europe alone– In Spain, Italy, UK and France more satellite households

than cable households.

• DTH taking market share from cable in US• Cable increasingly expensive to lay (rights of way)

- cable companies looking at satellite options to reach customers

• DTH presages 2-way internet/broadband demand– 52% of Astra users own PCs and 27% have online

access.


80% of European digital TV delivered by satellite

"Another important area is digital television. The market for digital TV doubles or even triples a year in several EU countries. Europe has closed the gap with the USA with over 10 million subscribers. New services are rolled out, ranging from Internet access to digital TV-based e-commerce."

From a speech by Mr. Erkki Liikanen, "eEurope and e-Business" Europay International, Key Members' Conference Amsterdam, 1 July 2000


Satellite Broadcasting

• DBS in USA (>15m subscribers), 43% of digital services DirecTV and EchoStar

• SNG market growing– 97mods to DVB-S allow 90cm-1.5m SCPC

– 8Mb/s with 8PSK/TCM/16QAM option

• DVB-RCS now becoming standard for IP delivery


Digital Radio (DAB-DARS)

• US– Xm Radio (GEO) – up --services operation– SIRIUS Radio (HEO) --services operation– Infrastructure in place – Deals with leading car/truck companies– Radio’s in shops (US) and in cars/trucks

• Worldwide– Worldspace – 3 world coverage satellites– Infrastructure/Radios – in place

• Europe– Global Radio / Worldspace

• S-DAB– Convergence broadcasting/mobile – Multimedia and multicasting


Sirius satellite radio system

TDM OFDM

TDM

GroundRepeaters

SIRIUSSatellite

VSATSatellite

NationalBroadcast

Studio

RemoteUplink Site

MobileReceiver

TDM OFDM TDM

12.5 MHz


Satellite: competitive local access

• Satellite DTH has successfully competed with cable in urban, suburban and rural areas for decades

• Satellite is a competitive means of local access– Only wireless technologies bypass the

incumbent’s pipes and offer consumers a real “last mile” choice

• No other “last mile” technology - DSL, WLL, etc. - has a proven track such as satellite.

• Satellite will be a critical access means for bandwidth hungry, converged services.


Mobile Satellite Systems

• S-PCS (Iridium/Globalstar) failed –lead on competition with terrestrial will not succeed

• Inmarsat niche market area successful but small 200k users, and expensive

• Constellations not popular


GEO-Mobiles

• ACES/THURAYA etc.

• 200 spots from 14m deployables

• On board dsp – channel to beam routing

• GSM/GPRS services –GMR standards

• Can they provide services economically?


GEO Mobile Systems

ACESASC

APMTSat Phone Int.

EASTThuraya

QoS/Availability

Coverage

Service Offerings

TimingPrice

ASIA


Inmarsat Niche Market Extension


Convergence:Mobile / Broadcasting (positioning)

• Broadcast / Multicasting with caching

• Push and store services

• Vehicle’s and handhelds

• S + T (UMTS) or DVB/DABS with UMTS

• Location based services tied with Galileo


DMB terminal

Bluetoothinterface

DMB Satellite

Vehicular DMB receiver

Contributionnetwork

Broadcast center

Gateway

Cacheserver

smart antenna

User Handset

Cache

LocalInteractivity

RemoteInteractivity

BroadcastingBroadcasting

MulticastingMulticasting

DMB Broadcast/Multicast mission

• Content Delivery Network Model– Push mechanism– Multicast mechanism– Store mechanism


DMB Architecture Synoptic

TerrestrialRepeaters

W-C

DM

A

Multicast

W-C

DM

AM

ult

icast

GroundStation

Feeder l

ink

URBAN AREA

SUB - URBAN AREARURAL

AREA

GPRS

EDGE

T-UMTS

GSM/GPRSGSM/GPRS

W-CDMA

2G/3G Cellularnetwork

2G/3G CellularnetworkContribution

network

Contribution network

IP WORLD


– Where are terrestrial networks weak points?

• Infrastructure cost• Deployment of UMTS islands in a GPRS world • Traffic costs• Limited bandwidth per cell• Environmental (tower, pylon, radiation)• Designed for symmetric traffic

– Where will UMTS network never go?• Broadband broadcast/multicast services (not addressed in R99)

– Don’t you feel any fresh air, there?

Opportunity for Satellite


Little LEO’s

• Definition– Constellations of LEO satellites,

operating at frequencies < 1GHz, providing non real-time digital communications for applications such as messaging, property tracking, email and telemonitoring

• 2001 –Orbcomm fails –is this the end?

The Orbcomm Constellation


Future Opportunities

• Keys are–BROADBAND

–INTERACTIVITY

–INTEGRATION

–MOBILITY


Future Opportunities

• Convergence of Satellite delivered broadcast/multicast with terrestrial delivery of other services

• Broadband internet access and interactivity

• DVB-RCS –standardisation

• Mass markets rather than niche

• Cooperating service provision plus completing terminal networks


Future opportunities


Key Constraints

• Spectrum availability at right time

• Poor perspective of satellites by terrestrial operations– Will they embrace as part of global network

• Unavailability of finance

• Regulatory issues and standard bodies


Future satellites:Product Developments

• Reliable low cost launch capability

• Large GEO platforms (3-4 tons) – 15Kw– Long life, high power/strange/dissipation– Autonomy: low cost, rapid production

• Small LEO platforms– Medium life, pointing agility/stability– Autonomy: low cost, rapid production

• Large deployable reflectors– 12-14m (Tx/Rx) – 100 spots

• Active antennas– BFNs– Phased arrays

• OBP– Beam forming – channelising– Regeneration – switching

• Miniature, active/passive, microwave equipment (L/s, Ku, KA)

• ISLs (optical)


Conclusions• Markets

– Very large –up to 4140B by 2010– Asia/Pacific Rim –biggest– Digital Broadcast –Internet driven (DVB/DAB)– Convergence of mobile/broadcast systems – using local cache’s (push to start)

band in vehicle services– Broadband

• Satellites provide early starts– 3G UMTS?– Multimedia to home– Broadband

• Mobility– INMARSAT niche – Maritime/Aero– Mass markets opened up by broadcast/mobile convergence

• Civil/Military– Synergies

• Shift to service delivery/content– Emphasis away from equipment manufacture– Software service

• Competition– Cable / radio / HAPS


Satellite & the competition• Technical limitations of terrestrial networks will

severely restrict broadband availability. – Digital subscriber line (DSL) signals decay on long telephone lines

or on those of poor quality.

– Local multipoint distribution service (LMDS) signals cannot penetrate obstructions, buildings.

– Cable performance deteriorates if too many in a neighborhood log on at the same time.

– Fiber-to-the-home is a costly retrofit, economically viable only for new housing construction.

• For up to one third of the population in the U.S. and an even greater portion worldwide, satellite technology will not simply be a choice, it will be the choice.

autumn2004 (c) university of surrey satcommsa - part final - b g evans final.1 satellite...

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