automation in air transport 2050 · there are no limitations for the civil air transport on the...

Technische Universität München

© 2013, Institute of Aircraft Design, Technische Universität München

Student Scenario Study

Summer Term, 2013

Automation in Air Transport 2050



Study Group Members

TUM TUM TUM TUM StudentsStudentsStudentsStudents

Christian AignerChristian AignerChristian AignerChristian Aigner

Florent ColletFlorent ColletFlorent ColletFlorent Collet

Michael ErtlMichael ErtlMichael ErtlMichael Ertl

Daniel Gierszewski Daniel Gierszewski Daniel Gierszewski Daniel Gierszewski

Omar Gomez OrtegaOmar Gomez OrtegaOmar Gomez OrtegaOmar Gomez Ortega

Marine IlgMarine IlgMarine IlgMarine Ilg

Peter LangenbacherPeter LangenbacherPeter LangenbacherPeter Langenbacher

Max OstendorpMax OstendorpMax OstendorpMax Ostendorp

Michael ShamiyehMichael ShamiyehMichael ShamiyehMichael Shamiyeh

Eileen WilhelmEileen WilhelmEileen WilhelmEileen Wilhelm

Sebastian Sebastian Sebastian Sebastian ZwenznerZwenznerZwenznerZwenzner

Project SupervisorProject SupervisorProject SupervisorProject Supervisor

Niclas Randt Niclas Randt Niclas Randt Niclas Randt

TUM Institute of Aircraft Design

ExternalExternalExternalExternal ParticipantsParticipantsParticipantsParticipants

Axel BeckerAxel BeckerAxel BeckerAxel Becker

Airbus

ProfProfProfProf. Dr. Klaus . Dr. Klaus . Dr. Klaus . Dr. Klaus BenglerBenglerBenglerBengler

TUM Institute of Ergonomics

DrDrDrDr. Werner Huber. Werner Huber. Werner Huber. Werner Huber

BMW

DrDrDrDr. Annika Vergin. Annika Vergin. Annika Vergin. Annika Vergin

German Federal Armed Forces

Marcus Marcus Marcus Marcus WiggertWiggertWiggertWiggert

German Federal Armed Forces

Sebastian WolfSebastian WolfSebastian WolfSebastian Wolf

Bauhaus Luftfahrt



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Team 1

Final Documentation

“An Automated Revolution” Automated Air Transport & Services 2050

Praktikum Luftverkehrsszenarien SS 2013 Gruppe 1 (Gierszewski, Gomez, Langenbacher, Shamiyeh)

“An Automated Revolution” - Automated Air Transport & Services 2050

Page 2

Part 1

Scenario Writing

A Look into the future…

Quintessence or: “The final five”

Collage

Timeline


Page 3

A look into the future

Economy & Business

After the reformation of capitalism in the western

world, a more stable and fair economic system

was established. The labour relations are gov-

ernmentally regulated. Every employee has the

right to profit sharing and the salaries of men and

women are equal. Furthermore there are mini-

mum wages and the managerial salaries are

regularised. As a result there is a big middle class

all over the world.

Thanks to new market regulations government-

owned companies got independent stock com-

panies. As a consequence, financially sound big

stock corporations started to buy shares of newly

independent companies of various business

sectors, like “Deutsche Bahn”, and are on the

upswing. Thus travel connections

improved and the transport with-

in and between cities is man-

aged by few big stock corpora-

tions.

One reason for the economic

upswing concerning transport

corporations is automation. With

automation, personnel costs are

reduced and a more comforta-

ble, more reliable and faster

travelling is realized.

Another reason can be seen in

the investment willingness. Due

to great support for new tech-

nologies and automated systems from media

and society and the positive image of the avia-

tion industry, people are increasing their invest-

ments in the automated-air-transport sector.

These investments enable the companies to

extend their offers in the automated-rail-

transport and airport sector.

Politics, Legislation & Regulation

The majority of politicians support “Automated Air Transport Systems“ (AATS) and the legislation

set no hurdles for automation, because of the

big pressure through the high air traffic volume.

Furthermore the enormous 90 per cent of crash-

es, which were caused by pilot error, could not

be reduced. This led to a path breaking ruling in

favour of automated systems. For safety reasons

politicians and legislation dictate in 2030 that all

aviation systems have to be automated within

ten years.

There are big regional organisations of states, like

Europe + USA and there are border controls be-

tween these organisations. This border controls

were a big problem until 2023. Then an interna-

tional agreement between all organisations,

which regulates the border controls, was signed.

With this agreement the “Single Global Sky” was implemented. The air surveillance for the trade

areas is carried out by their military forces. But

there are no limitations for the civil air transport

on the airways.

In 2021 China became increasing problems on

the international market. Due to external and

internal pressure China had to adopt interna-

tional western standards and corporate organi-


Page 4

sations. Only global players can exist on the free

market.

All National Airlines are part of international stock

corporations in 2023. Thus the governments had

stopped step by step all subsidies, preferential

rights and privileges of National Airlines. So there

are no Flag carriers anymore. Nevertheless the

prices are low as a result of fierce competition

between the big transport operators and due to

the fact that Monopoly positions and price fix-

ings are internationally forbidden.

Society & Demographics

In 2050 the majority of people are living in cities.

While the urban public transport is handled with

automated on-ground transport systems, AATSs

cover the transport needs between the cities.

Since after big riots the world financial system

has got much fairer, a big middle class has been

shaped and a lot of people can afford inter-city-

flights and attend those.

Because of the much bigger number and the

growing age of air-travelers, the advantages in

time and comfort resulting from automation are

receiving much more attention than the disad-

vantages like impersonal processing during flight.

In combination with a high grade of automation

in everyday life, this leads to general openness to

innovation.

Due to the extremely high software reliability and

security, society and media have a high level of

trust in automated technology.

Due to the environmental efforts of the aviation-

industry (e.g. bio fuels s. “Ecology and Energy”), people think in very positive way about flying.

They have even a highly supportive position to

the innovation ambitions of companies, because

nearly everybody considers the automation as a

positive way to cope with the increasing de-

mand for food, transport and so on.

Ecology & Energy

With a strongly increasing worldwide population

and developing nations like China and India,

that are further seeking for economic growth

and prosperity, two major problems arose until

2030: At first to meet the increasing demand of

energy and secondly to produce enough food

for the increasing number of people.

The energy demand pressure stimulated the

research in alternative sources and more effi-

ciency in energy use. Especially new developed

bio fuels, like algae fuel with algae produced in

photo bioreactors, play a significant role in 2050.

As they are not able to replace fossil fuels com-

pletely, electricity mainly from solar or wind parks


Page 5

is needed as further energy supply. The use of a

variety of different energy sources is a major

strategy in 2050, which also applies to the

transport systems. Ships and aircraft are now

hybrid powered, using electricity from solar cells

and batteries as well as fossil or bio fuel. The hy-

brid strategy as well as the extended mass pro-

duction of bio fuel from algae and other biomass

resources help to keep the

costs for fuels at an ac-

ceptable level. In 2019 Emis-

sion Trading Schemes (ETS)

were introduced worldwide.

Certificates have to be pur-

chased to be allowed to set

free exhaust gases like CO2.

This made bio fuels become

more attractive, as they are

considered as zero-emission

fuels. Another important polit-

ical decision, that stimulated

the replacement of fossil fuels

by bio fuels, was the intro-

duction of a blend with more

than 30% bio fuel as an alter-

native to conventional kero-

sene at most airports of Europe and the USA in

2020.

In order to increase energy efficiency of many

systems and processes, automation was very

helpful and thus found its way in almost every

sector of industry. For example at airports auto-

mation reduced the time needed for start-up

procedures and thus helped to save fuel and

avoid emissions. Due to automation air travel

operators are able to compensate for the in-

creased fuel costs, by reducing staff. Thanks to

the automated high-speed rail transport services

in the cities and the clever arrangement of flight

routes, air traffic in the airspace over cities is

avoided. In this way noise emissions by aircraft

are no longer a problem, despite the high vol-

ume of traffic.

Although a lot of the cultivated land in 2050 is

used to plant the resources that are needed for

biological fuels, a highly efficient and completely

automated agriculture is still able to meet the

demand of food for people all over the world.

This fact contributed to the positive attitude of

the people towards automation. But neverthe-

less this evolution left its traces in nature. In 2050

giant wind or solar parks are drawing the land-

scape and except great megacities almost all

remaining area is needed as cultivable land.

Also in 2050 the climate change and its disas-

trous consequences are still a problem. Although

huge efforts were made to slow down global

warming, the proclaimed goal to keep it under

the 2-degree Celsius limit could not be hold. In

middle Europe long-lasting heat waves in the

summertime are no more extraordinary. Moreo-

ver annual rainfall decreased about 50% com-

pared to 2010 on the Mediterranean, but strong-

ly increased in Northern Europe. To make agricul-

ture furthermore possible, despite the hot cli-

mate, big amounts of water are necessary for

watering the farming land. Only by a very effi-

cient use and recycling of water, it can be en-

sured that the global water resources are not

exploited. Because of continuing desertification

in North Africa and the Middle East, in 2050 there

are many climate refugees moving to the big

cities that are located in temperate climate

zones.

The good thing is, desert areas are very suitable

for algae farming, as the sun and heat acceler-

ate the growth of algae and enough solar pow-

er is available for the energy-intensive process.

Moreover the genetically modified algae that

was already in 2011 found as most promising for

bio fuel production, is grown in a salt water envi-

ronment. This makes it possible to use actually

barren land for farming and saves precious drink-

ing water. Thus, many of the former oil-producing

countries, like Saudi-Arabia are now important

providers for bio fuel. They soon realized that if


Page 6

they want to remain economically and politically

important they had to invest in alternative ener-

gy resources.

In northern countries like Canada or especially

Russia, the now temperate climate as well as the

large unsettled land areas, makes them become

the world's most important food producers.

Air traffic market

All rail transport services around the airport are

completely automated, because the govern-

ment-owned rail companies, like “Deutsche Bahn” became independent and efficient com-panies in 2017. For better competitiveness and

cost-effectiveness airlines, railways and airports

merged to big transport operators like Star Alli-

ance, SkyTeam, Oneworld Alliance and Xinxing.

They offer complete packages with rail-transport

to and from the aircraft. That is why there is a

good transfer of know-how between automated

trains and automated aircraft.

Due to a big middle class and a high number of

people who can afford to travel by plane, the air

traffic volume rises. Furthermore all people see

the air travel as the indisputable most technically

advanced means of transportation. That is why

air transport is the biggest mass transportation

sector. For being able to handle this huge

amount of passengers the Air Transport systems

have to be automated. Otherwise the amount

of passengers could not be handled and the

really big demand could not be satisfied.

The number of seats is high, the provided ser-

vices for most passengers are limited and the

passengers have to be checked in on public

transport stations with connection to the airport.

Only some exclusive aircraft operators provide

personal services for upper class passengers. Due

to the fact that the software security and reliabil-

ity is nearly 100 % and the positive Media hypes

towards technological innovation, the ac-

ceptance of automated technology and the

Investment-willingness in the aviation sector is

very high and all transport operators automated

nearly all services.

On the one hand there is an increasing number

of business trips, because of the worldwide op-

erating corporations. On the other hand there is

an ascending number of vacation trips, because

most people want to travel during holidays. Fur-

thermore more children and senior citizens travel

based on the urbanisation, the globalisation and

the huge geographic distances to relatives.

There are many group and individual travels.

Thus the overall private air traffic rises and is as

easy as driving by train or metro.

Intercontinental there are big hubs and big to

medium-sized planes. But within the organisa-

tions there are point to point connections and

many flights with a high frequency. The point to

point connections are operated by small to me-

dium-sized aircraft. There is a distinct tendency

towards air travel, instead of rail- and bus travels,

for travels over one hour, due to time saving

reasons and more comfortable journeys.

Passenger behavior

All passengers have to buy their tickets via inter-

net and are looking for the cheapest tickets. The

new way of travelling by plane starts at public

transport stations with connection to the airport.

There, the passengers perform the baggage

drop-off and the check-in with their electronic

passport (e-pass) or electronic ID (e-ID). Thus

there are no queue times for the passengers. If

there are some problems the police intervenes

immediately. Automated railways enable arriv-

ing at the airport 5 to 15 minutes before the flight

time departure. The airports in 2050 are only in-

terchange-facilities and transport hubs. After the

arrival the passengers are transported to their

gate directly, where they enter the plane.

Nearly all passengers are flying with fully auto-

mated services, like automated catering and on-

board services. The exceptions are some upper

class passengers, who insist on personal airline


Page 7

services. They want to have the traditional per-

sonal services, like catering by flight attendants.

Both sorts of passengers want to have the most

comfort possible. Furthermore they want to have

the possibility to work, relax and sleep during

flight. Therefore the passengers have access to a

fast Internet connection during the whole jour-

ney. As a result all passengers can use their

whole travel time very purposeful and the period

of time during the trip is not experienced as

dead time or wasted time.

The passengers have confidence in technology.

That is why they have no issues with innovations

like Blended Wing Bodies and unpiloted aerial

vehicles.

Infrastructure

In 2050, automation is necessary to cope with

the huge amounts of passengers at airports.

Otherwise queue times would be unacceptable

and boarding procedures would last several

hours. When in former times hundreds of people

worked at airports, nowadays there are only few

employees responsible for mainly control tasks or

to interfere in cases of emergency. To shorten

the ways between points inside the huge air-

ports, an automated inside railway system is es-

tablished. This helps to realize a stress-free and

fast boarding procedure, despite the large and

crowded airports. In 2050 check-in, luggage

registration and security control take already

place at one of the many public transport sta-

tions with connection to the airport. On the one

hand this helps to avoid congestions and

crowded trains. On the other hand, passengers

now spend much more time at the public

transport stations than at the airports. Thus shop-

ping facilities and restaurants, which were typi-

cally situated at airports, are now located in and

among important public transport stations.

Moreover the journey to and from airports has

changed a lot. In 2050 individual

traffic among airports, for exam-

ple by cars, is prohibited and

replaced completely by an au-

tomated rail transport system,

that is connected to the public

transport network. Parking areas

as well as many roads leading to

airports are dispensable. The

passenger benefits thereby as he

saves time and does not have to

worry about finding a parking lot

or arriving at the airport on time

when there is a lot of traffic on streets. To handle

the crowds of people who leave and arrive at

the airports every day, huge automated high-

speed shuttle trains drive in minute intervals and

connect airports with the most important public

transport stations of the cities.

Until 2050 the individual traffic by cars loses signif-

icance or is even prohibited in certain areas like

downtown or among airports. So people make

use of a good public transport network. As dis-

turbances in the schedule would be disastrous, a

totally safe and reliable controlling of these

transport systems is necessary. For people in 2050

it would be unthinkable if humans with their long

reaction time control these trains.

In the globalized world of 2050, with many big

international companies existing, a means of

transport that helps to link places that are far

away from each other plays a very important

role. Therefore the expansion of the global infra-

structure network, based on aviation continues.

The most flown routes connect European me-

tropolis with megacities in China, India, America

and the Middle East. Except some private or

company-owned airports, nearly no smaller re-

gional airports exist anymore.


Page 8

Technology Options

All Airplanes fly totally automated an energy

saving optimized flight path without any flight

attendants in a “Single Global Sky”. The passen-gers enjoy a big media system for entertainment

and ordering purposes and a worldwide com-

munication system with holographic functions

(Skype 3D). The serving of food

and drinks is mostly fully automat-

ed, only some upper class pas-

sengers receive personal services.

Passengers with special abilities

(doctors, safety staff ...) are regis-

tered at the airlines and fly for

special prices. In case of emer-

gency they handle difficult situa-

tions on board.

There is no centralized air traffic

management. Instead, planes are

coordinating their flight paths only

with nearby planes, even while

departing and arriving at airports.

Conventional planes are estab-

lished as standard because of best

efficiency and the easy available

big amount of space at airports; VSTOL aircraft

are used only for special purposes. The new

generation of jet engines provides a comforta-

ble level of noise; residents of airports and air

routes are not affected anymore.

Since the electronic passport is introduced, the

check-in on railway stations is also fully automat-

ed. Sensors read out the passenger information,

while the passengers board a train.

The luggage can be dropped-off at fully auto-

matic conveyor belts (which carry the bags to

special boxes) in the railway stations. The bag-

gage boxes move automatically in the right

plane and assemble to the LTU (luggage

transport unit).

Another Option could be the creation of

transport units composed by a seat and a lug-

gage-rack behind or beneath the seat. People

get on their train, occupy one of those transport

units and travel to the airport. There, the units

with the passengers leave the train automatically

and hover to the appropriate airplanes to reas-

semble and form the flight deck. With such a

system transfers get highly comfortable and the

travellers are always in charge of their luggage.

For safety and duty reasons luggage and people

are multiple rayed, declarable products are

automatically scanned and identified and cus-

toms pay with electronic banking.


Page 9

Quintessence or: “The final five”

1. Automation is necessary to cope with the most important challenges of the 21st century, like population growth.

2. Automation, especially in aviation, is highly supported by politics, media and society.

3. In 2050 passengers benefit from automation, as it makes travelling by aircraft simpler, faster and more comfortable.

4. A fairer economic system, which is dominated by big stock companies, gives rise to a big global middle class that has the

money and the will to travel by aircraft.

5. Airplanes, without any flight attendants, fly fully automated coordinating their energy saving optimized flight paths almost

only in communication with nearby planes.


Page 10


Page 11

Timeline


Page 12

Part 2

Concepts of Operations

High-level requirements

A business journey

The Single Transport Unit (STU)


Page 13

High-level requirements

In-Flight Automation:

1. Planes taxi, take-off, fly and land completely automated.

2. Probability of collision has to be reduced to 10^-12 per flight hour.

3. Planes deviate off their optimized flight paths with a probability threshold of 10^-9 per flight hour.

4. Traveling-process has to be so simple that a six year old child, or handicapped, or all old persons can attend flights.

5. Medical onboard equipment is sufficient to handle health issues like heart attacks and simple injuries.

6. Flights arrive within 1 minute of the planned arrival time regardless of weather conditions.

7. During flight, every passenger has a fully equipped work-, entertainment- and rest- or sleep-environment.

8. A passenger can communicate audio-visually with every person worldwide.

9. Passengers have the possibility to receive drinks and food during flight anytime.

10. Luggage has to be accessible for passengers at all time.

On-Ground Automation:

1. The transfer from train to plane or plane to plane is done within 15 minutes.

2. Passengers are distributed to the right aircraft automatically.

3. It has to be possible to identify people automated and without contact by their e-passport.

4. All passengers and their luggage have to be scanned (for safety reasons) without contact and fully automated.

5. Check-In is completed before rail-transfer.

6. The maximum time for railway-airport-transfer does not exceed 20 minutes in metropolitan areas.

7. After entering the railway-transport-system luggage “follows” its passenger automated.

8. The maximum distance covered by foot at airports is 100m.

9. Aircraft handling is done within 15 minutes after passenger drop-off.

10. The time for plane maintenance has to be reduced by 75%.


Page 14

A business journey

•Mr. Business, 35, starts working in his office in Munich after lunch.03.07.2050, 13:00

•Email-check: He gets an invitation from the office in China to a meeting: 04.07. 13:00 (local time) in Shanghai.13:30

•He buys an e-travel-ticket for 20:00 from Munich to Shanghai. Because of his passed „Flight Safety Instructor -training he gets a 15% discount.13:35

•Arrival at nearest train station with connection to the airport. He walks with his baggage and his e-passport in his pocket through the security and check-in gate.19:55

•Mr. Business takes a seat of a single-traveller transport unit in the train and stores his luggage beneath the seat. Meanwhile he is welcomed personally by the STU.19:58

•The train leaves towards the airport, he checks his flight data and orders dinner and drinks for the flight on the integrated touch screen. He can see on the timebar, that he

will need 13 minutes to the airport.20:00

•The stay o your seat sig illu i ates a d he hears frie dly oi e a ou es the arri al at the airport.20:13

•While watching the „Tagess hau he recognizes that his STU leaves the train and hovers to the plane.20:15

•While the STU is brought to a halt, he meets his new seat-neighbour whose transport unit assambles beside his own.20:22

•During take-off the „stay on your seat sign turns off and he gets a message that his meal in the catering box on the STU is ready.20:25

•After Mr. Business finished his dinner and had a delightful conversation with his seat neighbour, he switches his STU to „work-mode . Slowly the dividers around his unit rise

and he connects online to his company cloud for finishing his presentation.21:00

•Perfe tly satisfied ith his ork he s it hes his “TU to sleep- ode . U der the starry sky he falls asleep.23:00

•Mr. Business is waken up by a friendly voice and relaxing music. A friendly voice tells him, that he will arrive in 30 minutes at his final destination.04.07.2050, 12:00

(local time, Shanghai)


Page 15

Cartoon by Daniel Gierszewski

The Single Transport Unit (STU)

Needs

See “High-level requirements” and Flightpath 2050.

Approach

Introduction

The “Single Transport Unit” (STU) plays a decisive

role in the person transportation chain in 2050.

Basically it consists of:

- one floor plate,

- sidewalls,

- a highly adjustable seat,

- a luggage rack,

- a big touch screen,

- a desk,

- and a catering box.

The main idea is that the traveler moves into one

STU at the beginning of the journey and stays

there until arrival. The STU is somehow train-seat,

plane-seat, board service, entertainment system,

office, bedroom and transfer-taxi at once.

Technical aspects

Trains and planes do not have a static interior

with seats or cabins anymore, it is composed of

STUs. Therefore standardized physical, electrical

and software interfaces are necessary. For identi-

fication and navigation purposes the STU con-

tains an e-passport scanner and a link to a cen-

tral travel database. This makes it possible to

provide personalized services (like linking to an

office- or personal-cloud, pre-stored STU-settings,

and so on) and the automated interchange

from the train to the booked plane.

For interchange, the STUs have their own weak

propulsion-, navigation- and communication

systems. There is no centralized control center at

the airports which pilots the units, each STU pro-

ceeds autonomously to its destination.

Economical aspects

Companies offer STUs with special functions. For

instance a “fitness-STU” by a sports-supplier, a

“gaming-STU” or a “gourmet-STU”,… is imagina-

ble too.


Page 16

The traveler can pre-order such special STUs for

extra charge, or the companies provide them for

advertising purposes for free.

The catering concept works in a way that com-

panies pay to get their products on the menu

which is provided for each STU on the touch

screen. As a result, the passenger has a wide

range of selections concerning food and drinks.

Benefits

Due to travelling in STUs, the passenger has a lot

of benefits:

- She/he can stay at his seat during the com-

plete journey. Disruptions through inter-

changes are completely eliminated.

- She/he can use the travel time effectively

for any kind of activity. (Fully equipped

work-, entertainment- and rest- or sleep-

environment)

- The luggage is accessible at all time.

- She/he can enjoy individual catering with a

wide range of brand-offers.

- The travel process is much simpler, more

comfortable and faster than nowadays.

The Benefits for companies are:

- Totally new ways for advertising are provid-

ed.

- They can offer their products during the

whole journey (not only at airports/train sta-

tions)

Challenges

There exist a lot of challenges, realizing the STU

system:

- The interior of future trains and planes have

to provide systems for the STU integration.

- Systems for assembly and decomposition in

trains and planes of the STUs have to be de-

veloped.

- The interfaces between the STU and

trains/planes will be very complex and diffi-

cult to realize.

- The intermodal changes (sleep, work, enter-

tainment, and so on) have to be passenger-

friendly and comfortable.

- The system for navigation, tracks, distribution

and coordination of STUs will be a big chal-

lenge.



Team 2

Final Documentation

Error 404 : Automation not found

Praktikum Luftverkerhsszenarien 2013

Christian AIGNER – Florent COLLET – Marine ILG – Sebastian ZWENZNER


Praktikum Luftverkehrsszenarien 2013 – Group 2 1

Table of contents

1. Scenario description

1.1. The key event

1.2. Macroscopic level

1.2.1. Economy and business

1.2.2. Society and demographics

1.2.3. Ecology and energy

1.2.4. Politics, legislation and regulation

1.3. Air transport level

1.3.1. Infrastructure

1.3.2. Air traffic market

1.3.3. Passenger behavior

1.3.4. Technology options

2. Key statements

3. Timeline of events

4. Collage

5. High-level requirements

6. Concepts of operations

7. NABC-Analysis

7.1. In flight : Air Traffic Management System (ATMS

7.1.1. Customer needs

7.1.2. Approach

7.1.3. Customer benefits

7.1.4. Challenges

7.2. On-ground : Push-pull cars (PPCs)

7.2.1. Customer needs

7.2.2. Approach


7.2.4. Challenges



1. Scenario description 1.1. The key event

The governments were always supporting the investments in AATS and reiterating

the need for new investments and the implementation of fully automated systems on

ground as well as in the air. Even when frequent attacks on the automated systems

showed that the Software security was nearly non-existing, the governments all over the

world still encouraged further development and implementation, especially of the AATS.

The event of New Year’s Eve 2035 should change that forever. The indefinite trust in

new technology should lose any foundation overnight and the population remains shell-

shocked.

A loosely organized group of cyber terrorists, consisting of members of small

ecological cells around the world, remotely hijacked an automated aircraft, causing it to

crash. As a consequence of this event, regulation and legislation have increased

dramatically, investments in the AATS have been frozen.

1.2. Macroscopic level 1.2.1. Economy and business

The economy crisis is still ongoing after 2015 but the investments in the aviation

sector and especially the automation of this sector are becoming more and more

important. In 2035 the big aircraft catastrophe leads to a sudden stop of investments in

the aviation sector.

Economic cooperation between Europe and Asia is getting stronger. Further

growth of South American countries allows them to develop their economic

relationships with North American countries.

China is rising to become an even more important part in the world economy. Its

influence leads it to become, with most South-East Asian countries, a major weight in the

global economic balance.

Wage labour diminishes over time due to the fact that most of the work in

factories is automated, which means that many people are without a job or have a job which gives them not as much as they would’ve earned. There are still some people who

earn big money, for example engineers since they are needed to overlook the work done

in the automated factories.

1.2.2. Society and demographics

Population of industrialized countries becomes older compared to a young

population in the third world countries. The number of people living on earth increases

as well, because of an improved medical assistance and high birth rate in large parts of

South America, Asia and Africa.

While the educational prospects in the third world have never improved, in first

world countries it becomes increasingly difficult to get access to good education. It is

necessary to have the right financial background in order to get into the right schools.



Automation contributed in large parts to the risen social gap. The companies replace

human workers with robots. The unemployment rate increases. Urbanization increases

and leads to more property inside the cities.

1.2.3. Ecology and energy

New environmental standards set by the 2nd Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 2024,

represent an enormous challenge for the air travel industry : the objectives set by this

new protocol are very challenging for what is still now the most polluting means of

transportation on the planet. Environmental awareness becomes a more and more important matter in people’s minds, thus causing more people to reconsider their choices about their preferred

means of transportation. Even though most people are poor they still care about the

environment because it serves as a purpose to differentiate themselves from the Upper

Class.

The unfortunate event of a nuclear plant being destroyed by an earthquake has

furthermore raised many questions about safety of nuclear energy, particularly in

countries heavily relying on this energy source, e.g. France. Fusion, which has recently

been finalized, then seems a lot less useful. As a consequence, governments are investing

more and more in renewable energy technologies. Water, wind and solar energy are the

main resources.

1.2.4. Politics, legislation and regulation

The picture of the world in 2050 is characterized by widespread poverty,

especially in the industrialized countries, which have never been able to fully recover

from the economic crisis. Political stability is not as high as in the beginning of the 21st

century. The high numbers of unemployed people are one reason, why the government

cuts back the investments in automation, as there is only work for some groups as

engineers and other parts of the population would become lifelong unemployed

preparing the ground for criminality and revolutionary tendencies. This poverty creates

a new will for intercontinental migration, which leads to stricter immigration

requirements, e.g. visa free tourism no more exists.

Democracy is still dominant in Europe, although the people themselves have no

real influence and Europe is mainly governed by a small group of politicians – a

European Government - and a larger group of less well-off politicians totally depending

on them. Nevertheless the rule of law is still intact. Russia, China and the USA haven't

undergone any changes in their political life and the principal of being governed by some

rich industrials has become the norm. This creates together with the high society of the

Near East a while small very well-funded class, who determines the demand on

commercial air traffic.

China has risen to the dominant power in the world, allowing them to absorb

Taiwan and North Korea. This creates tensions with India, Indonesia and Russia. Japan

plays no more role after a second maximum credible accident worse than Fukushima

during the catastrophe. Neglecting any further use of Nuclear Technology the society



pursues alternative ways and gets thrown back 100 years. In the rest of the world the

new fusion reactors create new possibilities. The fastest growing regions are South

America and South East Asia, while Africa remains in his desolate state. The USA plays

still an important role, but are only a shivering dwarf compared to the old times of glory.



1.3. Air transport level 1.3.1. Infrastructure

There are many small airports which are very well connected with each other.

There are almost exclusively direct flights offered. In and very close to smaller cities new

airports are being constructed. These new airports have been constructed in order to

optimize access to different modes of transportation (automated rail transport systems,

car parks, etc.). the optimization includes allowing more smaller airplanes traffic.

In order to cope with the ever increasing number of passengers, connections

between cities and airports are improved : more and more rail transport systems are

being automated for decreased transfer time, also between terminals for big airports.

Freight operations are also being automated when possible.

1.3.2. Air traffic market

The market focuses on smaller long-range planes flying more frequently,

resulting in increasing number of air traffic.

Due to the high expectations from rich customers concerning comfort airlines

have to adapt their range of services. 70 percent of passengers flying for business

purposes, the rest are mostly tourism related.

Some parts of the world have risen and in the aviation sector, this new world order can

be seen in the leading Aircraft Manufacturers. Airbus is the largest aircraft

manufacturer, hold by 49% of the Chinese government.

The main competitors in North America are Embraer, Bombardier and

Gulfstream, which are now melted into one company and Boeing. In Europe and Asia

Airbus is the market leader who has bought COMAC.

1.3.3. Passenger behavior

The current social gap causes that only rich people are able to fly. Business class from ’s is now standard for all airlines in terms of comfort, space and services. Passengers don’t trust the automation in the air industry and prefer to fly on the old , conservative way. They prefer human service instead of robots. There has to be always a

backup in the cockpit for more safety. Flying becomes more a luxury symbol.

Environmental awareness tends to encourage people to use other means of

transportation rather than airplanes. Most passengers are between 35 and 70 years old.

Due to reoccurring software-related security threats, the media are drawing a bad image

about air transportation, thus has the society a mainly negative opinion for further

automation in air transport and services.



1.3.4. Technology options

Until 2035 the investment-willingness in AATS was unbroken and thus

concerning the available and fully developed, everything can be made happen. It is just

restricted to such a high extent, that most of the technology is neither produced nor

implemented. Airports are almost completely automated, with strong focus on on-

ground services and procedures such as check-in, luggage handling, etc. On the other

hand, aircraft are also being converted to partial automation : optimized flight paths and

weight saving onboard systems allow manufacturers to produce lighter machines.

Due to the uncertainty of fossil fuel availability for the next decades, new fuel

types have emerged as serious alternatives, such as mixes between Jet-A1 and algal or

jatropha-based biofuels, resulting in better energy management without significant

changes in engine design. Also, further progresses made by aircraft engine

manufacturers enable between 30 and 40 % of energy savings.



2. Key statements

Society becomes more skeptic towards technology, because of

increased software security threats

No investments in automation technology have been made in the last

decades due to legislation restrictions

Environmental awareness becomes an important topic among the

society

The proportion of people who can afford travelling by plane

decreases, because of a bigger social gap

Due to a huge catastrophe concerning automated aircraft, the

technology available is not being used : instead, older technology is

still currently active

3. Timeline of events

2024 : 2nd

Kyoto

Protocol

2027 : Chinese state

uys 9% of Air us’ stakes

2030 : Airbus

acquires COMAC

2032 : Merging of

Bombardier, Embraer and

Gulfstream

2035 : aircraft

hijacked

0 9 : Air us’ arket domination at the

Paris Air Show

2045 : Annexation of

Taiwan and North Korea

by China

2031 : Nuclear fusion

becomes operational

2037 : Earthquake in

Japan



4. Collage



5. High-Level Requirements

5.1. In-flight automation

Maximization of space per passenger

Crew to passenger ratio first class: 1:6; business 1:9

Control of the aircraft lies in the hands of the pilot

The aircraft follows the optimized air path with minimal

pilot input

Minimized noise disturbance, e.g. Take-off and Landing

Only direct flights with minimal travel time

Air traffic management system to handle the increased

number of airplanes in the sky

5.2. On-ground automation

Emission-free taxiing

Time needed for Check-In and Security Controls is

minimized

Security Controls detect any possible threats

Aircraft Maintenance procedures are automated

Time spent on the airport is minimal for passenger and

aircraft

Fast connections between airport and final destination

Luggage handling is fully automated

Passengers are supported individually on their way to the

aircraft

Individual catering is available to order before arrival at

the airport



6. CONOPs (Concepts of Operations)

40 year old businessman traveling with his rich father in law from

Starnberg to Southampton

They leave the house, after having searched for the fastest way to the

airport on their smartphone

Tickets sent directly per e-mail, consulted on mobile device

They get to the airport by partially automated train

Individual selection of in-flight catering services during the train ride

They are being guided in the airport with help of a smartphone app

(in-house navigation)

RFID luggage badge

Luggage get sorted by robots

They proceed to automated security checks (body scans with human

oversight), and border control procedures (biometric passports,

automated scanning units)

They proceed to the boarding gate with moving walkways, still guided

by in-house navigation

The father in law proceeds directly to the first class lounge with a

moving walkway, while the businessman gets to a normal waiting

area. Both are equipped with workspaces

As they look out of the window on the air field they watch numerous

automated towing cars maneuvering the airplanes

The father in law boards first. He is being guided to his travel area by aircraft personnel

The businessman then boards and is being guided to his seat as well

An emission-free taxiing system is realized through automated

electronic push-pull cars

The pilot greets the passengers before the aircraft leaves the parking

spot

The plane takes off

Previously ordered onboard catering is being delivered by cabin

crew, further services available (entertainment, wellness, etc.)

While working (thanks to the onboard internet connection), the

businessman counts more than 20 aircraft flying around

The plane lands after an 1-hour flight at Southampton

Before getting to the train to town center, they get their luggage back

The completely relaxed father-in-law gets to his hotel for his golf

tournament

The businessman joins his colleagues for a well prepared meeting

They reach their respective destinations within 15 minutes after

landing



7. NABC – Analysis

7.1. In flight : Air Traffic Management System (ATMS) 7.1.1. Customer needs

Targeted customers are airlines, which try to manage a huge amount of aircraft at

the same time and airspace. The system has to insure collision-free air traffic. One of the

main goals for airlines is shortest possible travel times, achieved through flight path

optimization. The system must not replace the pilots, but it should only assist them in

various tasks. Since the software security is not as high as it should be, the pilot is still

responsible for the safe control of the aircraft and can take full control at any time.

Furthermore, noise reduction is one of the secondary goals that must be achieved

through the system.

7.1.2. Approach

Due to the events of 2035, regulations and restrictions have taken further

development of the Air Traffic Management System (ATMS) to a halt. In 2050, a new

version of ATMS is being used successfully because it has been developed in such a way

that regulations are not harmed.

ATMS lies on new communication procedures, mainly between flying airplanes,

and also between airplanes and air traffic control (ATC). The main purpose of

communication between flying aircraft is collision avoidance. On the other hand, ATC-

airplane communication ensures optimal flight paths for all aircraft. Global routing is

made by ATC prior to departure for all aircraft ; flight data are then communicated to

each of them. The pilot still has full control of the airplane ; ATMS is just assisting him in

his tasks and every action from the system has to be confirmed by the pilot. In case of

emergency, ATMS can be easily disabled so that the pilot can ensure the aircraft safety at

all times. Therefore, additional training has to be provided to ensure that pilots have the

necessary abilities to manage aircraft in a crowded airspace.


Through ATMS, airspace is used more efficiently and leads to more connections at

the same time. Energy saving opportunities are made possible thanks to flight path

optimization. Constant communication between aircraft and ATC enables improved

safety.

7.1.4. Challenges

Two of the most important challenges are pilot training, particularly in emergency cases

(since they are not used to fly manually anymore), and also to insure the same level of

software security. Flexible and efficient routing algorithms also have to be developed

and constantly improved.



7.2. On ground : push-pull car (PPC) 7.2.1. Customer needs

Customers are airport operators. As required in the Flight Path 5 document, taxiing procedures must be emission-free. Automation for on-ground procedures must

insure the same level of reliability and flexibility as before, and also marketable (cheap

and adaptable to all sorts of airports). It also has to optimize the time spent by aircraft

on the ground, leading to overall shorter travel times.

7.2.2. Approach

Push-pull cars (PPCs) are bound to replace and enhance the function of current push-back cars : they are electrically powered and automated, and completely

maneuver the aircraft on the airport (from gate to runway) : the vehicles’ positions are controlled by GPS, as well as on-ground and on-car mounted sensors. The whole PPC

infrastructure is monitored by the air traffic controllers, who can take over control from

one of the PPC if a problem arises. There is always an over-capacity of vehicles to allow

reload and replacement in case of maintenance. Charging and maintenance stations are

constructed near terminals to ensure 24-hour functionality.


The main benefit for airport operators is the complete automation of on-ground

taxiing procedures, allowing operators to focus on more critical tasks. Furthermore,

significant cuts in personnel costs can be expected, leading to better economic efficiency.

The PPC system also allows airports to draw an environmentally-respectful picture of

air transportation.

7.2.4. Challenges

The PPC system can lead to significant changes in airport infrastructure : it must

be developed in order to minimize its impact on the overall airport ground traffic

organization, and thus to be implemented on any airport in the world. Safety aspects

must also be taken into consideration, e.g. collision avoidance between airplanes. On the

other hand, the system has to be provided with the highest level of software security.



Team 3

Final Documentation

0

Luftverkehrsszenarien: Szenario 3 Stepbystep; 19.07.2013

INHALT Key factor essays of the Macro layer ..................................................................... 1

Economy & Business ..................................................................................... 2

Politics, Legislation & Regulation ................................................................... 3

Society & Demographics ............................................................................... 5

Ecology & Energy .......................................................................................... 6

Key factor essays of the Air Transport layer ........................................................... 8

Air Traffic Market ............................................................................................ 9

Passenger Behavior ..................................................................................... 10

Infrastructure ................................................................................................ 12

Technology Options ..................................................................................... 13

Key Findings ......................................................................................................... 14

Timeline ................................................................................................................ 15

Scenario Vision ..................................................................................................... 16

From the scenario to a product development process ........................................ 17

High Level Requirements (HLRs) ......................................................................... 18

Concepts of Operations (CONOPS) ..................................................................... 19

Product Ideas ....................................................................................................... 23

NABC analyses .................................................................................................... 28

1

KEY FACTOR ESSAYS OF

THE MACRO LAYER

Air Transport layer

Air traffic market

Passenger Behavior

Infrastructure

Technology options

Macro layer

Economy & Business



Ecology & Energy

2

ECONOMY &

BUSINESS A robust economic development has

led to a large middle class* with a large

demand for air transportation connect-

ing the main economic centers of the

developed world.

*prognosis of HSBC Holdings: in 2050 more

l-

most 3 billion people will have an earning be-

tween $3,000 and $15,000 a year

ewly industrialized countries

tional

economies. China replaces the US as

India has caught up with the economic

performance of the former leader. Eu-

rope looses importance, only France

and Germany maintain global weight.

These countries are thus the centers of

innovation in the mobility sector. Air-

craft manufacturers and operators are

accumulated in the US, France & Ger-

many and China & India.

In countries such as China and India,

the gap in distribution of wealth be-

tween the urban centers and rural are-

as widens.

3

POLITICS, LEGISLATION

& REGULATION Due to the inability to agree on a

standardized immigration and duty pol-

icy, procedures such as passport and

customs controls are not fully automat-

ed yet. The degree of automation of

these processes depends on the desti-

nation country. Within Europe for ex-

ample, clear immigration and duty

standards are introduced which are

valid for all members of the EU and

thus allow for a high degree of automa-

tion. However, the major global players

of the world in 2050 (China, India, USA,

the EU) have too different concepts of

immigration and duty policy. Conse-

quently, intercontinental travelling is still

coined by dealing with diverse entry

requirements and regulations.

The Single European Sky Project was

successfully established. In contrast to

the difficulties with agreeing on stand-

ardized immigration and duty regula-

tions, all relevant nations have been

ambitious about creating a global air-

space which enables optimization of

flight routes. After several years of dis-

cussions and various international con-

ventions on this topic, a Single Global

Sky controlled by fully automated con-

trol centers distributed around the

world was established in 2035. The

Project was realized in cooperation of

governments and the two remaining

aircraft operators Sky Asia and Star

Alliance as well as national aeronautical

authorities.

The technical complexity of automated

public road- and rail transport services

is well controlled in the prescribed envi-

ronment of large cities. Road traffic

regulations have been adapted to the

demands of a transport network where

individual transport in conventional cars

and unmanned vehicles for public

transport coexist. The percentage of

automated public transport vs. individ-

ual transport varies among countries

and regions from 10/90 around trans-

portation hubs such as large airports

and train stations in megacities (Beijing,

4

New York, New Dehli) to 0/100 in rural

areas.

The awareness of the technological

complexity of automation of air

transport has led to ambivalent posi-

tions within and between national bod-

ies towards certification of AATS. Thus

fully automated flights are not yet al-

lowed despite they are technically real-

izable. Especially for passenger

transport, unmanned aircraft are far

from being certified. However, in the

cargo sector unmanned flights seem to

be up and coming in the nearer future.

As many times before, the USA and

Asia are ahead of Europe in making

unmanned freight flights legal. Legisla-

tion there is far less restrictive than in

Europe. However, Europe and the USA

profit from a close alliance and their

common free trading zone which make

them a strong competitor for Asia.

5

SOCIETY &

DEMOGRAPHICS As people of all age groups travel, es-

pecially the elder generation appreci-

ate the advantages and comfort of a

high level of automation and are thus

open towards technological progress.

Their trust in technology is profound.

Urbanization:

70% of the worlds' population lives in

large cities and their suburbs.

A rising number and degree of weather

catastrophes keeps the ecological

awareness growing and causes a neg-

ative smack of pollution. Environmental

activists succeed in degrading the im-

age of the air transport sector and large

corporates for their incapability to admit

climate change.

The success of fully automated road

and rail transport and further automa-

tion in daily life (smart homes, consum-

er and medical services) has led to a

positive hype of technological innova-

tion by the Media. Every generation that

came after 1980 raised with was more

and more machines facilitating their

lives.

6

ECOLOGY &

ENERGY Due to the establishment of the Single

Global Sky, air traffic management be-

comes centralized which enables opti-

mized flight paths and maneuvers be-

tween the megacities as well as be-

tween megacities and the smaller air-

ports around. This leads to a major cut

down of fuel consumption and reduces

the emissions per flight.

The World’s rising demand for energy

leads to higher prices for fossil fuels

and makes renewable energies be-

come more lucrative. The electrical

drives for on-ground transport systems

like trains, cars, etc. established. The

result is an almost fossil fuel free traffic

on ground. While air transport is still

reliant on fossil fuels as the main ener-

gy source.

The efficiency of machines has been

improved, almost all waste heat is re-

used. Though the per capita consump-

tion has dropped, the global energy

demand has highly increased due to

the increased world population. Large-

scale renewable energy power plants

combined with crude oil- and gas pow-

er stations are essential to accommo-

date the high demand for energy in the

worlds megacities.

Climate change has become visible.

More extreme weather conditions arise

around the world and have negative

effects on the airports. Often airport

operators have to cancel several starts

and landings as a result of meteorolog-

ical disturbances. Higher precipitation,

heavy hails, tornadoes and more fre-

quent severe catastrophes make it im-

possible to deny the effects of pollution.

Air pollution, especially in the megaci-

ties, became a rising issue in politics

and another reason for the installation

of nuclear power plants.

7

Well-engineered smart grid systems

and an established renewable energy

concept, with nationwide wind parks

and solar energy plants around Europe,

enables the European society to in-

crease the percentage of renewable-

and nuclear energies up to 60% while

the delivered energy for US house-

holds and the industry is still mostly

produced with fossil fuels (75%). The

exponential demand for energy of the

fast rising number of metropolises in

the Asian region can only be met by

newly installed nuclear power plants

combined with an increasing number

of wind parks.

To contain the rising CO2 output of the

industry and especially the transport

sector, strict binding restrictions of the

politic still effect the air transport sector.

While the auto mobility industry fight a

hard battle with the politicians, the air-

lines and aircraft manufactures have

bigger problems to comply with the

noise control assignments.

8

KEY FACTOR ESSAYS OF

THE AIR TRANSPORT

LAYER

Air Transport layer

Air traffic market

Passenger Behavior

Infrastructure

Technology options

Macro layer

Economy & Business



Ecology & Energy

9

AIR TRAFFIC MARKET Megacities serve as hubs in the global

air traffic network. The main points of

intersection are located on the East-

and West Coast of the US, in Europe,

Asia and some detached Cities in

South America.

The air routes between the main re-

gions Europe, China and the US coasts

are the most frequently used paths with

the highest number of passengers.

High capacity planes (>1000 PAX)

transport large numbers of people be-

tween these hubs. In order to connect

the few smaller cities to the main hubs,

conventional short-range aircraft are

used.

The short-range transport market is

driven by a competition between the

airlines, and the railroad industry. Pri-

vatization of the railroad industry in al-

most every region, results in lower pric-

es for travelling by train. The outcome

of a competitive price and the ecologi-

cal awareness of the society, is a rising

percentage of railroad passengers for

short distance journeys.

In the meantime, travelling by bus

along longer distances became unprof-

itable as a result of rising prices on fos-

sil fuels.

Airlines have merged to large alliances

to profit from synergy effects (reduced

personnel costs, higher use to capaci-

ty). Star Alliance and Sky Asia form a

duopoly and thus dominate the air traf-

fic market. Those alliances bought out

some railroad companies to offer door-

to-door tickets and enable smooth trav-

elling along the whole journey.

To cope with the large number of pas-

sengers, the aircraft operators auto-

mate their services in large parts. This

has led and still leads to massive in-

vestments in the aviation sector.

10

PASSENGER

BEHAVIOUR Passengers of a broad range of age

travel. The aged population is very mo-

bile and open towards travelling.

Reasons for Air Travel are diverse:

• The members of the grown middle

class can afford holidays to basi-

cally any destination.

• A closely connected global econ-

omy leads to stable level in busi-

ness travelling. Although communi-

cation technologies such as audio

and video conferences are increas-

ingly safe, comfortable and reliable;

companies stick to temporal per-

sonal meetings.

• Commuting Traffic between the

hubs is very common, even large

distances are flown regularly. Many

people live in one and work in an-

other city permanently and families

are more widely spread over the

world. Due to efficient and fast in-

termodal travel, the distances are

perceived shorter.

The large numbers of passengers ac-

cept the automated procedures of

reaching the airport and check-in. They

appreciate to travel quicker and with a

lower stress level. In general, people

consider travelling by plane to be a re-

laxed way of travelling, especially for

long distances.

Although people do not consider air

travel as the greenest way of reaching

their destination, they decide against

trains on long and medium-long range

distances. On short distances however,

passengers often travel by train.

11

PASSENGER

BEHAVIOUR

Two passengers report about their expe-

riences:

-

- -

12

INFRASTRUCTURE Automation enables a smooth and effi-

cient way of starting

the airports and yet at public transport

stations Check-in and baggage drop-

off systems are offered to ensure the

easy and comfortable way of travelling

already starts at the next subway sta-

tion.

Ground Handling is fully automated.

Catering and refueling happen without

human interference. Therefore a uni-

versal docking station was invented.

The Cleaning of the planes is done by

machines and supervised by a human.

Public transport in the cities has been

fully automated 20 years ago with an

enormous success. Incidents caused

by human failure have vanished and

the technical components are as relia-

ble as never before. With this system

passengers reach the main hub air-

ports via a completely automated road-

and rail shuttle.

13

TECHNOLOGY

OPTIONS At last: Software Security is near 100%.

• Data Transfer is thus simplified and

allows a highly automated passen-

ger handling.

• The controlling units (e.g. the auto-

pilot) in the aircraft are protected

against external threats.

• Consequently a necessary condi-

tion for a centralized coordination of

air traffic is given.

•

Technical innovations such as light-

weight materials, aerodynamically im-

proved geometries, less need for re-

dundancy and economically optimized

engines lead to reduction of fuel con-

sumption.

Holograms, digital devices and bio-

metric documents may help to identify

and interact with the passengers on

board and at the airport. This enables

an increased efficiency and customiza-

tion despite large numbers of passen-

gers.

High level of electrification of on-board

systems, actuators, etc. allows weight

savings which lead also to extensive

fuel savings.

Redesigned cabin concepts may allow

differentiated use of space. Besides the

general seats, there could be an office

for example for online meetings,

presentations, etc. in the business

class. That allows the passengers to

use the time of flight more efficiently.

14

KEY FINDINGS

1 Completely automated public on-

ground transport services are established.

2 The air traffic market is a dominat-

ed by two large aircraft operators.

3 Despite the effects of climate

change, the media hype technol-

ogy positively and people are

open to technological progress.

4 A robust economy has led to a

large middle class with a large de-

mand for air transportation between

5 Fully automated flights are not yet al-

lowed due to certification issues. A human pilot is in charge of his highly automated

aircraft at any time.

16

SCENARIO VISION

17

FROM THE SCENARIO

TO A PRODUCT

DEVELOPMENT PROCESS

1. Scenario Writing

2. HLRs

3. CONOPs

4. Product Ideas

5. NABC

6. Product Development

18

HIGH LEVEL

REQUIREMENTS (HLRs)

General HLRs:

Processes should be self-explanatory to passengers of all age groups

and all nationalities.

Minimization of costs for personnel.

Individualization of all interactions with the passenger (language, cultural

background, personal preferences).

Minimizing the price for air travel such that 99% of the worl

can afford it.

Maintaining a certain service level.

Creation of a green image of products.

HLRs for In-Flight Automation:

Minimizing delays and network disruptions caused by weather issues.

Increase of the number of direct connections.

Maximization of the capacity of used air space.

Increase of the load factor of airplanes (passengers, baggage and cargo).

Cut down of fuel consumption.

Reduce noise pollution.

Improved engine efficiency.

HLRs for On-Ground Automation:

Enabling a hassle-free and quick inter-modal connection for passengers

of all age groups.

Especially efficient processes for frequent flyers.

Increase of efficiency of passenger baggage logistics.

Cut down of fuel consumption by improving ground-op efficiency.

Decreasing energy consumption during on-ground processes.

Increase of the number of passengers handled per hour.

19

6:30 Mercurius wakes Mr. Pong according to the time the program has calculated which is necessary to reach the airport punctually

6:50 Mr. Pong leaves his home

6:57 He boards the fully automated metro which takes him to the airport shuttle transit station

7:05 The high-speed airport train arrives and takes Mr. Pong to the international airport PVG. On his way, Mercurius...

...tells him where he will arrive at the airport,

...indicates which CBS line is the shortest,

...shows him the way to his Gate A24

7:18 Mr. Pong enters the airport and proceeds directly to the CBS terminal indicated by Mercurius.

7:25 On the ways to his gate, he passes numerous shops

7:30 Arrival at Gate A24, immediate boarding

CONCEPTS OF

OPERATIONS (CONOPS)

Tanji Pong (*1983) 67 years old, Chinese teacher in Hiroshima, from Shanghai, China:

(weekly commuting traveler)

20

7:32 Mr. Pong takes his seat, xxx is launched automatically, he can begins correcting exams of his students while the last passenger board the plane

7:40 Flight SA34897 takes off, which Mr.Pong barely notices

7:55 A light breakfast is served, which the teacher has ordered via Mercurius in the airport shuttle

8:12 Turbulences shake the plane, but Mr. Pong can continue his work without problems

8:30 Mercurius notifies Mr. Pong that the flight will end in about 15 min and provides him with necessary information on his onward journey from HIJ to his school.

8:45 The plane lands safely in HIJ, Mr. Pong exits the plane and proceeds directly to the baggage pick-is shown on his mobile device by Mercurius. He decides to use the five minutes for a short coffee break at his favorite café.

8:56

9:01 Within Asia, no passport and custom controls are necessary, Mr. Pong can go directly to the train station where an automated train takes him downtown.

9:15 His lesson begins

21

2013 AND 2050

A COMPARISON

A comparison of travelling time today and 2050 by means of the door-to-door jour-

ney from Shanghai (SHA) to Hiroshima (HIJ). Figure 1 shows a direct comparison of

each step of a typical journey, we expect for 2050. Figure 2 shows the sum of all

time savings alongside the journey while figure 3 shows, when Mr. Pong have to

start his travel to reach his lesson on time.

Figure 1: Expected time savings

00:0000:1000:2000:3000:4000:5001:0001:1001:2001:3001:40

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transit at the airport in-flight at the airport transit

2050

2013

The amount of time that can be reduced in each step

22

Figure 2: Sum of the travelling time

Figure 3: Expected Start times

00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00

2013

2050

Diagrammtitel

walk to subway station transport to transit station transit to Airport

arrive at Airport ticket/baggage/security check proceed to gate

Ready for oardi g enter the aircraft finding seat

flight to destination airport get off the plane at the gate baggage pick up

border control customs control leave security area

transit to destination

A comparison of the effective travelling time:

03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00

2013

2050

Diagrammtitel

departure walk to subway station transport to transit station

transit to Airport arrive at Airport ticket/baggage/security check

proceed to gate Ready for oardi g enter the aircraft

finding seat flight to destination airport get off the plane at the gate

baggage pick up border control customs control

leave security area transit to destination

The effect of the reduction in travel time:

23

PRODUCT IDEA: CBS Walk-Through The CBS Walk-Through combines three

stages traveler has to pass before

boarding an aircraft: Check-In, Bag-

gage drop-off and the Security check.

By merging these three originally time

intensive processes, the waiting time

for travellers at airports is massively

reduced.

When the traveler enters a CBS unit, it

automatically collects all personal in-

formation and travelling data from his

electronic passport and a retina scan

contact-free and within seconds. In

case the passenger uses Mercurius,

the CBS sends an e-ticket the flight da-

device. Otherwise, he receives it via an

alternative communication stream, cho-

sen in the CBS via a voice command.

At the same time, the traveler places

his baggage on an ergonomic convey-

or belt. A chip is attached to the suit-

case such that the owner can track it

throughout the whole journey. Again,

Mercurius is able to support this func-

tion.

Without noticing, a whole-body scanner

has done the security check of the

passenger in the CBS and he is now

ready to proceed to his gate. In total,

he has not spend more than a minute in

the CBS unit, which is why he consid-

ers it as a walk-through process.

In case the security check detects an

object which may not be taken into the

plane (knifes, weapons etc.), the prob-

lem is indicated to the passenger via

clear message on large screens (in the

correct language, of course) and pas-

sage is denied. Depending on the na-

ture of the object, the traveller may

solve the situation on his own by leav-

ing the object behind or security per-

sonnel takes care of the situation. Every

security guard is in charge of ten CBS

units; he or she supervises the highly

automated passages and intervenes in

such cases.

In total, the passenger saves a lot of

time because he only needs to stand in

line once - and these lines are short. In

95% of the cases, the CBS check re-

24

sembles a walk through a mere gate

and thus the passenger starts has a far

less stressful stay at the airport. Thus,

he das more time for other things be it

working or purchasing gifts, food and

beverages at the airport. Furthermore

only one person is needed to supervise

ten CBS units, consequently personnel

costs can be further reduced.

PRODUCT IDEA: Mercurius: Integral Travel-

ling Information System Mercurius is a software package, which

the passenger installs on his personal

mobile device. The program supports

travellers throughout their whole jour-

ney.

One of the key features of Mercurius is

its integrated time management system,

travelling schedule in real-time. Ac-

cord

and needs, Mercurius computes the

expected travelling time. This way, the

program can send notifications to the

user indicating the necessary time of

departure from the current position in

ion on time

be it the transit station on the way to

the airport or the gate where he enters

the plane.

The aspect of personalization is the

second major benefit of Mercurius. A

businessman, who uses the plane for

commuting travel regularly, has com-

pletely different demands than a family

flying to their holiday destination. The

software offers several options on the

travelling time schedule will be based

user profile

and optional manual input, Mercurius

may guide a traveller to his gate in a

minimum amount of time or lead him

25

slowly around passing his favorite

shops and restaurants.

Since it is a widely spread software,

Mercurius has access to the data of a

large amount of travelers and can thus

control the workload of different parts of

the airport by leading passengers into

different directions and distributing

them equally (always regarding the

course).

The mean of communication can be

chosen individually as well. Mercurius

offers an audio and a visual interface.

In order to avoid the disturbance of

other travellers, the audio function only

works in connection with an earpiece.

The visual interface is realized via an

advanced augmented reality function.

Invisible for other people, all infor-

mation is projected directly into the us-

All in all, Mercurius is a cutting edge

software program offering an efficient

time management system and intuitive,

personalized orientation services at

airport.

26

PRODUCT IDEA: XXX: Individual work bench

XXX stands for a system offering pas-

sengers the possibility to use the time

on-board from the moment they enter

the plane until they arrive at the gate of

their destination airport. As soon as the

traveler arrives at his seat, he has the

possibility to launch the system consist-

ing mainly of a personal computer. He

can leave his own notebook or tablet

safely stored away because he can

access his data stored on servers all

over the world from the xxx computer.

It is not necessary to shut down the

system during taxi, takeoff or landing. A

keyboard can be projected onto an ar-

bitrary surface such that he can even

continue typing then. Privacy is guaran-

teed; if the user does not want to use

the screen, the content can be project-

ed directly into his eye instead such

that no information is open to any of the

other passengers. Ergonomically, using

xxx is far better than the utilization of a

conventional mobile computer device,

because control surfaces and visual

interface are decoupled.

If the passenger wants to make use of

any non-open source software, he can

purchase temporal licenses for all pro-

grams on the global market for the time

of the flight, quickly download it and

use it until the aircraft arrives at the

destination airport. All results are auto-

matically stored regularly such that the

risk of data loss is minimized.

27

For passengers who want to use the

flight for some leisure time, xxx offers a

large choice of various entertainment

possibilities such as videos, music, e-

books and -magazines or video games.

A broad choice of these media is avail-

able for free; less known movies, songs

etc. can be purchased and download-

ed during the flight.

To sum it all up, xxx offers passengers

the possibility to use their time on-

board exactly as they want it to re-

gardless of the phase of the flight. Es-

pecially for business purposes, xxx

creates the optimal conditions to ena-

ble a concentrated working session

throughout the whole flight.

28

NABC ANALYSIS:

Mercurius: Integral Travel-

ling Information System

Time Management,

Hassle-Free intermodal transfer,

Orientation at foreign airports Need

software installed on a mobile device, which guides the passenger during the whole journey

functions:

serves as e-ticket

includes a time management function, connected to real-time travelling data

guidance on the way to the airport airport

provides information on departure and destination airport infrastructure

Approach

Efficient Time Management: automatic reminders make sure that the passenger is on time and never spends to much time on waiting. More relaxed way of travelling

Seamless intermodal transfers: no more cumbersome transfers with long waiting periods or delays

Intuitive and personalized orientation service at airports

Benefit

Minimization of delays of the fully automated airport shuttle services, exact time scheduling

Maintenance of the high level of software security, protection of Mercurius against external attacks

Challenges

29

NABC ANALYSIS: XXX: Individual work bench

time i.e. the time during which the traveler can freely decide what he would like to do.

Especially the creation of a working environment throughout the stay on board (including taxi, takeoff and landing)

Need

Every seat in all planes is equipped with a powerful personal computer offering the following functionality:

automatic launch when the passenger requests it possible at any time during the journey

access to personal data stored on large capacity servers via the broad-band internet connection

communication such audio and video conferences are available in high quality

combination with high-end in-flight entertainment

Approach

Maximization of the time used according to the

Optimal working conditions on board Benefit

Dealing with the large data volume arising from the possibility for all passengers to download files from the internet

Challenges

automation in air transport 2050 · there are no limitations for the civil air transport on the...

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