australia's future health
DESCRIPTION
A presentation by Australia's Chief Medical Officer, Professor Jim Bishop AO to theUniversity of Melbourne Medical Alumni 2010TRANSCRIPT
AUSTRALIA’S FUTURE HEALTH
University of Melbourne Medical Alumni 2010
Melbourne –
19 November 2010
Professor Jim Bishop AOChief Medical Officer
Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing
Health Expenditure per capita, public and private expenditure, OECD countries, 2008 ($US PPP)
7538
5004
4627
42104079 4063 3970
3793 3737 3696 36773540 3470
3359 33533129 3060 3008 2902 2870
2729 2687 2683
2151
1801 1781 1737
14371213
999852 767
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1. Refers to insured population rather than resident population. 2. Current expenditure. 3. 2006. 4. 2007. Source: OECD, OECD Health Data, June 2010
Public expenditure on health Private expenditure on health
OECD HEALTH DATA 2010How Does AUSTRALIA Compare
AUSTRALIA’S RANKING AMONGOECD COUNTRIES 1987-2006
Source: AIHW Australia’s Health 2010
SELF-
ASSESSED PHYSICAL & MENTAL HEALTH, 2007
Source: AIHW Australia’s Health 2010
MAJOR DISEASE BURDEN in AUSTRALIA
PROJECTED BURDEN of MAJOR DISEASE GROUPS, 2010
Source: AIHW Australia’s Health 2010
BROAD CAUSE MORTALITY TRENDS IN AUSTRALIA
Source: AIHW
Source: AIHW Australia’s Health 2010
AGED ADJUSTED DEATH RATESFrom CVD, 1907 -
2006
ALL CANCER –
MORTALITY/INCIDENCE
ratios for selected countries -
2008
Source: IARC 2010.
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Kenya
Nigeria
Egypt
Viet N
amTurk
eyInd
iaChinaRuss
iaSou
th Afric
aGreec
eBraz
ilJa
pan
Czech
Rep
ublic
Italy
United King
domCana
daGerm
any
Sweden
New Zealan
dUSA
Austra
liaM
orta
lity-
to-in
cide
nce
ratio
MalesFemales
CHANGES IN DEATH RATES IN MALES -
using Joinpoint
Analysis
Source: Tracey et al –
Cancer Institute NSW
CHANGES IN DEATH RATES IN FEMALES -
Using Joinpoint
Analysis
Source: Tracey et al –
Cancer Institute NSW
5 year Survival Rates 2004
NSW
SEER
Non small cell lung 13% 14%
Colon 65% 67%
Rectum 66% 69%
Breast Cancer 89% 90%
Lymphoma (DL)
53% 53%
Source: Tracey et al –
Cancer Institute NSW
TOTAL CANCER CASES & DEATHS per year (1972 to 2036)
Source: Cancer Institute NSW
TRENDS IN LEADING CAUSESOF DISEASE BURDEN 2003-2023
Source: AIHW Australia’s Health 2010
HOW CAN HEALTH BE
IMPROVED ?
THE KEYS TO PREVENTION
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Tobacco
Blood pressure
Overweight/obesity
Physical inactivity
Blood cholesterol
Alcohol
Fruit/vegetables
Illicit drugs
Air pollution
Unsafe sex
% DALYs
Total of 32%
Source: Table 4.1 AIHW Australia’s Health 2008
AUSTRALIA’S RANKING AMONGOECD COUNTRIES 1987-2006
Source: AIHW Australia’s Health 2010
SMOKING IN AUSTRALIA
SMOKINGSTATUS NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS ACT NT AUS
Daily 16.4 16.5 17.2 14.8 16.5 22.7 14.7 25.3 16.6
Weekly 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3
Less than Weekly
1.4 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.5
Ex-smoker 24.7 24.4 25.7 28.3 24.1 26.5 24.8 22.4 25.1
Never smoked
56.3 55.9 54.5 54.3 56.2 48.6 57.9 49.8 55.4
National
Drug Strategy Household Survey 2007Source: 2007 Household Survey, Australian Government
OBESTITY INCREASING FOR ALL
Source: AIHW: Australia’s Health 2008
Anti-smoking campaigns ($27.8m)
COAG agreed•
Increased tobacco excise
•
Plain packaging •
Restricting internet advertising of tobacco products
•
Further funding for National Binge Drinking Strategy ($50m)
•
Survey of Australia’s Health ($54m)
National Preventative Health Agency (Spring Session)
Budget 2010-11
NATIONAL PREVENTATIVE HEALTH AGENCY
•
Builds on the National Partnership Agreement on
Preventative Health ($872.1m over 6 years)
•
Establishment and operational by early 2011 ($17.6m)
•
Specific responsibilities:
-
National Social Marketing ($102m over 4 years)
-
Preventative Health Research fund ($13.1m
over 4 years)
-
Preventative Health Workforce audits and
strategy ($0.5m over 2 years)
AUSTRALIAN HEALTH SURVEY
Four components run by ABS 2011-13
-
Health Survey- ATSI Health Survey
-
Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey
-
Health measurement Survey
Around 50,000 participants
De-identified data available as summary statistics, tables
Commonwealth Government Health and Hospital expenditure under the NHHN
Source: Commonwealth Budget Papers, DOHA and PMC Analysis
HEALTH REFORM
Increasing expenditure to $15 billion 2010/11
Additional $7.3 billion over 4 years
Local Hospital Networks (LHN) 60% Federal Funds (60% of research and teaching)
Medicare locals (100% Federal funds)
GP Superclinics
–
multi disciplinary teams (100% Federal Funds)
BUDGET 2010-11
e-Health –
connecting patients, providers and information systems
The Government will establish a personally controlledelectronic health record system ($466.7m)
The system will:•
Enable people –
and their chosen health provider -
to
access online their key health information when and where it is needed, for their care across the health system.
•
Allow people to register online to establish a personally controlled electronic health record from 2012-13
•
Rigorous governance •
Privacy maintained
HEALTH REFORM
KEY NEW STRUCTURES
National Performance Authority
Independent Hospital Pricing Authority
Expanded Australian Commission of Safety and Quality in Health Care (ACSQHC)
SUPPORTS FOR CLINICAL DECISION MAKING
Evidence Base
Highest Impact
Range of best practice tools
Successful implementation methods
Monitor and report
CLINICAL GUIDELINES
CLINICAL GUIDELINESHighest Impact
Greatest Burden of disease
Greatest harm from poor practice
Greatest demonstrated need:-
New Standard of Care
-
Proven variation in practice
Greatest time spent/cost to health system
REVIEW OF CLINICAL GUIDELINES
N –
313N
%
CANCER 17 5%
CARDIOVASCULAR 18 6%
RENAL 22 7%
MENTAL ILLNESS 22 7%
NEUROLOGICAL 0 0%
INJURIES 13 14%
CHRONIC RESPIRATORY 0 0%
DIABETES 11 4%
OTHER 173 67%
TOTAL 313 100%
Buchan et al 2006
MILESTONES IN CANCER CONTROL
Public health measures in smoking reduction,
screening breast, cervix, bowel, health literacy
Adjuvant treatment of breast, lung and bowel
cancer
New anti-cancer drugs and symptom control drugs
Cancer research translated into practice
Cancer registries, data linkage and analysis
BREAST CANCER MORTALITY
NEJM 2005Source: New Engl.Journ. Med: 353:17
PROJECTED YLLs
–
Three scenarios, Australia –
1980 to 2016
Source: Bishop et al –
Cancer Institute NSW
NON-COMMERCIAL CANCER RESEARCH EXPENDITURE, 2004
(A$ per CAPITAL)
Source: Eckhouse
et al (2007), ABS
NHMRC STRAGEGIC PLAN
2010 -12
Project Grants -
Success Rates
27%21%21%22%22%23%23%30%
27% 23%
3344
48%42%
40%36%34%34%36%37%
49%
58%
37%
39%
42%43%41%
33%
44%
25%24%
19%
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200
3600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Year of Application
Num
ber o
f app
licat
ions
Not recommended for funding (score < 4)
Fundable, but not funded
Funded
NHMRC Supported
Research Workforce
0
2 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
NH
MR
C S
uppo
rted
Wor
kfor
ce
2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0
F ull Tim e P art Tim e
NHMRC Support for National Health Priorities Areas
Percentage of Expenditure by Broad Research Area (2000 and 2010)
NHMRC Support for Translational Research
Translational funding mechanisms
Partnership Projects for Better Health
Partnership Centres for Better Health
Centres of Clinical Research Excellence
Centres of Research Excellence in Population Health
Research, & Health Services Research
National Health Research Enabling Capabilities Scheme
Industry Development awards
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mill
ions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Total Expenditure Number of Grants
NHMRC Project Grants
Clinical Trials Expenditure
Harmonization of Multi-centredEthical Review (HoMER)
National Statement for Ethical Conduct of Human Research (2007)
Process supported by AHMAC conducted by NHMRC
Certification of ethical review processes –
first roundRoles, responsibilities, templates publishedNHMRC working with States and Territories
CONCLUSIONS
Australia faces substantial challenges in Chronic diseases with longer life and life style diseases
The overall burden of disease is reducing with the exceptions of cancer, dementia and diabetes with ongoing mental health needs
Health reform offers opportunities for prevention, new models of care and translational research
New structures, guidelines and indicators need a solid research and evidence base to improve patient outcomes