atmospheric measurements relevant to solaris & heppa: what … · nox changes haloe july 2000...
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Atmospheric measurements relevant to SOLARIS & HEPPA:
What we have and what we need
Bernd Funke
Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, CSIC
Solar variability: SOLARIS and HEPPA
…complementing each other by investigating different aspects of solar variability (particles vs. radiation)
SOLARIS HEPPA
Gray et al. , 2010
Atmospheric observations in this talk…….
• Restriction to middle atmosphere (tropospheric impacts are generally analyzed from met data).
• Focus on vertically resolving satellite data (e.g. limb observations of T and composition) due to global character and vertical structure of solar influence (though ground-based observations are also of high importance, e.g. mesospheric wind observations).
Satellite observations
Groundbased observations
Assimilation met data (reanalysis)
GCMs CTMs Particle data
Ionization rates
SSI data compare analyse
Outline
• Observed shorttime variability: sporadic events (flares, SPEs), solar rotation
• Observed mid-term (solar cycle) variability – SSI impacts
– EPP impacts
• Measurement needs for SOLARIS-HEPPA: SPARC data requirement initiative
Observed short-term variability
• sporadic events (e.g. SPEs): clear atmospheric response which can be discriminated from the background.
• solar rotation: high frequency events (good statistics)
• no (relevant) climate impact
validation of photo-chemical schemes and forcing
input (e.g. ionization rates) process-oriented studies
27-day solar rotation
Shapiro et al., 2011
Aura MLS analysis (mesosphere)
O3 T
Hood et al., 1998
UARS MLS analysis (stratosphere)
stratosphere: T and O3 (large number of instruments)
mesosphere: H2O-HOx and Ox (MLS, SABER, SOFIE,..)
27-day solar rotation
Thermospheric NO (107 km), tropics
Marsh et al., 2004
Thermosphere:
• NO dens: SNOE
• NO VER: SABER
SPE-induced composition changes
Solomon et al., 1983
• Rocket measurements Nov. 1969, Weeks et al., 1972
• SPE induced ozone loss due to NOx production predicted by Crutzen et al., 1975.
SPE-induced ozone changes observed by satellites: • SME July 1982 Solomon et al., 1983 • SBUV Oct 1989 Jackman et al., 1991 • HALOE July 2000 Jackman et al., 2001 • MIPAS Oct 2003 López-Puertas et al., 2005 • GOMOS Oct 2003 Seppälä et al., 2004 • SCIAMACHY Oct 2003 Rohen et al., 2005
SPE-induced ozone loss observed by SME
NOx changes HALOE July 2000 Jackman et al., 2001 MIPAS Oct 2003 López-Puertas et al., 2005 HNO3, ClONO2, N2O5, HNO4, CO, H2O2 changes MIPAS Oct 2003 López-Puertas et al., 2005 Funke et al., 2011 Chlorine changes MIPAS Oct 2003 von Clarmann et al., 2005 MLS Jan 2005 Damiani et al., 2012 HOx changes MLS Jan 2005 Verronen et al., 2006
Jackman et al., 2001
SPE-induced composition changes
HEPPA-I: Observed and modeled NOx and O3
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Funke et al., 2011
Observed short-term variability
…what we have: • a wealth of atmospheric composition data (impacted by
short-term variability) from various instruments are available, particularly for the last decade.
• several extreme events covered (e.g. Oct 2003)
…and what we need: • lack of lower thermospheric observations, particularly atomic
oxygen (> 95 km), NO (MIPAS UA covered only one out of 10 days between 2007-2012, SNOE: short mission time)
Observed solar cycle effects
SSI-induced: • most pronounced in the tropics • statistical approach (multi-regression) required for
discrimination from background • long-term data records required (aliasing effects)
EPP-induced: • most pronounced in polar winter • strong signal (NOx) allows for (relatively) easy
discrimination • high interannual variability (NH, dynamics) superposed
Solar cycle variations induced by SSI
• principal observables: T, O3
• direct and indirect effects (dynamic feedback)
• “top down” and “bottom up”
Temperature observations
SSU/MSU4 (1979-2005)
Randel et al. (2009) Frame and Gray. (2010)
Temperature (K) Reanalysis (ERA 40)
Issues with vertical resolution or model influences in reanalysis data?
Ozone differences (%) from a multiple regression analysis of SAGE I/II ozone data for the 1979–2005 period. Unshaded areas are significant at the 95% level. Randel and Wu, 2007
• observed lower stratospheric response: evidence for “bottom up” mechanism
Ozone observations
+2%
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SAGE I/II Data (1979-2005)
O3 signals from different instruments…
SBUV
SAGE II
HALOE Soukharev and Hood, 2006
Available O3 observations
Profiles of mean ozone differences to SAGEII between 60S-60N Tegtmeier et al., in preparation
good agreement in the middle stratosphere (20-1 hPa), worse above and below…
Mesospheric effects: H2O and PMCs
Hervig and Siskind, 2006
• T correlated with solar cycle • H2O anti-correlated with solar cycle • PMCs anti-correlated with solar
cycle, but (yet) unexplained phase shift (Fiedler et al.)
Observed mesospheric variations (T, H2O, PMCs) are important to test our understanding of related processes (process-oriented model validation)
T
H2O
PMC
Ly-α
Atomic oxygen in the MLT
Smith et al., 2010
SABER atomic oxygen at 0.0008 hPa (~95 km)
shows clear solar cycle response, but dynamical variability superposed
• Is the observed solar signal the “true” signal (aliasing effects…)
• Is the observed/modeled signal from the last 2 solar cycles representative for the future?
• Can solar-induced dynamical effects be observed (i.e. wind and
tracer measurements) and hence compared to the modeled signal?
• What is the (relative) role of “bottom up” and “top down”?
• What is the “correct” SSI forcing to be used in models?
Solar cycle SSI effects: open questions
Inventory: T observations mission duration > 6 month, vertically resolving saltellite instruments only
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LIMS
MSU/SSU
SAGE I
SAGE II
UARS-MLS
HALOE
SAGE III
CHAMP < 35 km
SABER
MIPAS ✚
ACE-FTS
AURA-MLS
HRDLS
GRACE < 35 km
COSMIC < 35km
SMILES
SAR < 35 km
TANDEM “
We are left with 3 matured missions for the middle strat…….
Inventory: O3 observations: mission duration > 6 month, vertically resolving satellite instruments only
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LIMS
SBUV
SAGE I
SME (50-90 km)
SAGE II
UARS-MLS
HALOE
POAM II
POAM III
SMR
OSIRIS
SAGE III
SABER
MIPAS ✚
GOMOS ✚
SCIAMACHY ✚
ACE-FTS
ACE-MAESTRO
AURA-MLS
HRDLS
SMILES
We are left with 4 matured missions…….
…what we have:
• Present instrumentation works at sufficient vertical resolution.
• Accuracy can be an issue (particularly in the LS), however, relative accuracy (drifts) is more important than biases.
• Climatologies recently generated (SPARC-Data initiative)
…what we need:
• New atmospheric missions!!!! (Gap problem in the future)
• Merged data sets in order to improve statistics (number of solar cycles), e.g. ESA-CCI, GOZCARDS, NOAA-SWOOSH, SPARC-SI2N..
• Satellite wind observations for direct assessment of solar cycle effects on transport.
• Again: thermospheric observations (O, NO)
Solar cycle variations induced by SSI
Solar cycle variations induced by EPP
• principal observables: NOx
• main driver: indirect effects (polar winter descent)
• role of relativistic electrons (direct effects) still under debate
Observed EPP impacts: indirect effects
LIMS NO2 observations 1979 MIPAS NOy and CO observations 2002-2012
Russell et al., 1984
The beginning and the present….
Funke et al., in preparation
Observed stratospheric NOx (NOy) increases during polar winters: LIMS 1978/79 NH Russell et al., 1984 SAGE II 1984/85 NH Callis et al., 1998 ISAMS 1991/92 NH Callis & Lambeth, 1998 ATMOS 1994 SH Rinsland et al., 1996 HALOE 1991-2003 NH/SH Siskind et al., 2000; Natarajan et al., 2004; Randall et al., 2007 POAM II 1994-1996 SH Randall et al., 1998 POAM III 2000-2004 NH/NS Randall et al., 2001, 2005 MIPAS 2002-2012 NH/SH Funke et al., 2005; Orsolini et al., 2005; Stiller et al., 2005 GOMOS 2002-2012 NH/Sh Seppälä et al., 2007 ACE 2004-?? NH/SH Rinsland et al. 2005, Randall et al., 2006, 2009
Observed EPP impacts: indirect effects
Dynamically caused variability in NH
Smith et al., 2009 Randall et al., 2009
ACE NOx, NH
SABER T, 70-83°N
Stratospheric NOy deposition
a)
b)
+Randall et al., 2007 (flux estimation, HALOE+ACE)
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*Holt et al., 2012 (flux estimation, MIPAS+ACE)
Funke et al., in preparation
MIPAS
• How representative is NOx deposition during solar cycle 23?
• How is thermospheric NOx transported to the mesosphere?
• How relevant is dynamical modulation in the NH for stratospheric NOy and hence ozone?
• What is the reason for inter-hemispheric differences (source or dynamics) ?
• How is the EPP source vertically distributed (relativistic vs. auroral electrons)?
Solar cycle EPP effects: open questions
Inventory: NO2 observations: mission duration > 6 month, vertically resolving saltellite instruments only
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LIMS
SAGE II
HALOE
ISAMS
POAM II
POAM III
OSIRIS
SAGE III
MIPAS ✚
GOMOS ✚
SCIAMACHY ✚
ACE-FTS
HRDLS < 50km
We are left with 2 matured missions, no polar night observations…
Inventory: NO and NOx observations: mission duration > 6 month, vertically resolving saltellite instruments only
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SME 95-160km
HALOE
SNOE >100km
OSIRIS >70km
SMR >70km
MIPAS ✚
SCIAM. >70km ✚
ACE-FTS
SOFIE 85-105km
We are left with 1 matured mission, no polar night observations…
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HALOE
MIPAS ✚
ACE-FTS
NOx observations below 70 km
We are left with 3 matured missions, polar night observations only above 70 km (SMR)
NO observations
…what we have:
• A rather complete picture of stratospheric NOx and mesostrat tracer at least during second half of solar cycle 23.
…what we need:
• Future NOx and tracer measurements, particularly in polar winter/polar night (gap problem has already started)
• Particularly: NO and tracer observations in the MLT region (polar night…) in order to address vertical EPP source distribution and transport mechanisms
• (Global) MLT wind observations would be extremely helpful.
Solar cycle variations induced by EPP
Recommendations for the future
SPARC measurement requirement initiative • to develop material that will make explicit the
kind and quality of measurements that are needed to support SPARC activities, in a concrete manner.
• to provide coordinated input to the WCRP Data Advisory Council and other international bodies such as GCOS and CEOS, as well as to respond to requests from funding and space agencies concerning SPARC measurement needs and priorities.
Recommendations for the future
Improved data products from existing measurements:
• Need for continuous improvements of existing data sets (L1 and L2 reprocessing) as response to validation activities.
• Merged data sets (ongoing activities, e.g. GOZCARDS, ESA CCI,…)
• Exploration of possibilities for new data products (minor trace species).
Recommendations for the future
Future measurements:
– Follow-up missions targeting vertically resolved T and trace gas observations are urgently needed!
– Particularly: NOx observations (polar night)
– Opportunity missions of short duration (and heritage instrumentation) as low-cost gap-fillers should be considered.
– Ground-based observations with profiling capability and temporal continuity for indirect cross-validation of present and future space instrumentation.
– Global wind observations.