some analyses of updated ssu data –merging nash data with noaa-11 and noaa-14 –derived trends,...
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Some analyses of updated SSU data
– merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14– derived trends, solar cycle– comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data
SSU: ~10-15 km thick layer temperatures
data from NOAA operational satellites
NOAA-11
NOAA-14
note flattening of trends since
~1995
small long-term cooling in
middle strat.
MSU4 trends 1979-2004
SSU15x trends 1979-2004
NOAA-14 NOAA-11
NOAA-11 NOAA-14
Annual average trends 1979-2004
Model vs. observed trends (1979-1997)
Shine et al., 2003
x
1979-2003trends
How do we interpret stratopause variability?
?
~45-60 km
How do we interpret stratopause variability?
?
~45-60 km
Model vs. observed trends (1979-1997)
Shine et al., 2003
x
1979-2003trends
x why are middlestratospheretrends so small ?
Seasonal trends (N11)
SSU vs. HALOE
SSU 27~35-50 km
HALOEintegrated toapproximate
SSU 27
SSU vs. HALOE
SSU 47x~43-57 km
HALOEintegrated toapproximate
SSU 47x
Problems in operational analyses / reanalyses due to changes in satellite instruments
verticallyintegrated toapproximateSSU 36x(~35-50 km)
Global mean 100 hPa temps from analyses / reanalyses
Note spurious changes due to evolution
of data / analysis systems
TOVS – ATOVS change
each data setnormed to
zero for1992-1999
Temperature solar cycle 1979-2003
NOAA-11 NOAA-14
Observations vs. model
FUB model, Matthes et al., 2004
Observed ozone andtemp changes
40 km ozone
35-50 kmtemperature
note coherentvariability
(temperaturesrespond to
ozone)
Some key points:
• Significant differences between updated record using NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 data
• Strong upper stratosphere cooling ends after ~1995(reasonable agreement with HALOE data)
• No significant trends in tropical lower stratosphere in MSU4 and SSU15x data (very different from radiosondes)
• Small global trends in middle stratosphere (different from models)
• Reanalysis data sets problematic for trends
• Solar cycle ~1 K, maximizes in tropical middle-upper stratosphere