Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Physical Infrastructure

Thursday 12 March 2009

Presentations by

Emeritus Professor Len Stevens AM FTSE And

Mr Michael Nolan, Associate Director Sustainability & Climate Change, Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd

Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Australia’s

Physical Infrastructure

Len Stevens is Emeritus Professor of Civil Engineering at the University ofMelbourne. He has wide experience in the theory and practice of CivilEngineering with direct involvement with the design, construction andrehabilitation of large infrastructure projects.

He has played a significant role in developing the suite of buildingstandards which are currently in use under the direction of the BuildingCode of Australia and which will be key elements for the adaptation ofinfrastructure to climate change impacts.

Em Professor Len Stevens AM FTSE, University of Melbourne

Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Australia’s

Physical Infrastructure

Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering

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Presentation outline

• Review of major climate change features

• Identification of critical infrastructure sectors

• Outline of risk assessment methodology

• Conclusions and Recommendations

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Global warming Projections – IPCC (2007)

Warming of 0.1 to 0.7°C is projected by 2020, rising to 1.1 to 6.4°C by 2100

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Temperature distribution data as a probability density function (pdf)

Likelihood of global warming in 2100 consistent with the climate sensitivity, carbon cycle uncertainties and a range of emissions scenarios summarised in IPCC (2007). The diagram shows the likelihood of exceeding a given level of change.

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Some typical climate change events

Note: Sea level riseto 79 cm is projected

for 2100

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Physical infrastructure elements considered in ATSE study

• Transport: road, rail, air, sea• Energy: gas, electricity, oil• Mining: production and distribution• Built Environment: domestic, commercial,

essential services, agricultural, coastal• Water: storage, distribution, domestic,

irrigation, industrial, waste, drainage• Communication: fixed line, wireless

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Physical infrastructure: demand and capacity

• Loading and strength of built environment

• Electrical power demand and generating capacity

• Rainfall and drainage capacity

• Sea level rise and protection

• Demand and supply of water

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Recommended procedures developed by Department of Climate Change

Assessment methods based upon an internationally accepted probabilistic methodology - see AS/NZS 4360:2004 - by assessing:

Likelihood of a demand event, L, Consequence of that event on infrastructure

capacity, C, Risk to physical and economic activity, R, After which adaptation requirements, physical and

economic, A, can be assessed.

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ATSE Conclusions and Recommendations

Impacts on infrastructure

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• Most, but not all, sectors of Australia’s physical infrastructure are reasonably well placed to respond to possible climate change impacts via application of suitable adaptation strategies. Costs can be estimated for specified infrastructure.

• Adaptation should, where possible, be integrated with normal maintenance and upgrade programs.

• Most vulnerable sectors related to energy and water issues – often already at serious risk without climate change.

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• Major potential impacts on infrastructure often arise from combination of projected climatic events

For example:Impacts of extreme rainfall, sea level rise, and storm surge on low lying coastal developmentImpacts of drought, bush fires, and temperature extremes on electricity supply and distribution

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• In essential sectors, the implementation of effective adaptation strategies may require intervention by governments to ensure that planning is fully integrated.

Examples may include the generation and distribution of electrical energy, water storage and supply, or inundation of low lying coastal area developments.

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• The Council of Australian Governments

(COAG) should have oversight responsibility for issues relating to the impact of climate change by establishing a national body, such as a “National Climate Change Adaptation Task Force (NCCAT)”

NCCAT would: Produce Guidelines for national policy

solutions for climate change adaptation Identify and facilitate research needed to

support the policy solutions

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Under NCCAT guidance, relevant government authorities should:

Undertake comprehensive risk assessment for specific existing critical infrastructure facilities considered vulnerable to climate change

Implement comprehensive strategic planning controls for future specific installations potentially vulnerable to climate change

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Mr Michael Nolan, Associate Director Sustainability & Climate Change, Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd

Michael is an environmental professional with fifteen years experiencemanaging sustainability and environmental change outcomes for business,government and educational institutions. He has extensive experience insustainable infrastructure, energy, greenhouse and climate changeadaptation, water and behaviour change. Michael led the climate change impacts to infrastructure in Australia for theGarnaut Climate Change Review and project managed several climatechange impact, risk assessment and adaptation projects relating to water,power, transport, buildings and communications infrastructure,organisations and settlements.

Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Change Impacts