PhD candidate: Mabelle Chedid

Advisors: Jean-Francois Tourrand / CIRAD

Co- advisor: Shadi Hamadeh / AUB

Montpellier, September 2015

Assessing the sustainability of the integrated crop-livestock systems in

Lebanon – case study: West Bekaa and Mount Lebanon.

Preliminary results

Outline

1. Objectives

2. Rationale

3. Methodology

4. Achieved work + Preliminary results

5. On-going activities

6. Future activities

2

1. Objectives

Determine the indicators of sustainability of crop-livestock systems in a Mediterranean country: Lebanon

- Identify the risks/vulnerabilities on the local and regional levels

- Define the adaptation strategies of the various types of farms facing these risks/vulnerabilities

- Build a model based on the indicators and test the different scenarios with local people

3

2. Rationale

• No previous work on the resilience of farming systems in the country

• The sustainability models used in Lebanon are adapted from the French model IDEA and not created specifically for the Lebanese context

• Interest in studying the resilience of the farming systems in the light of the long history and present situation of the Lebanese people

4

5

Resilience is the capacity of a system to recover, reorganize itself and develop after being subject to external stresses and disturbances (Walker et al., 2004) Past exposures to disturbance are important to build resilience (Holling, 1973; Levin et al., 1998). Hence the ability to learn and adapt plays an important role (Folke et al., 2002).

Risk Impact Change Adaptation Resilience

How to define resilience?

QUESTION: assess the resilience

What factors are affecting the farms’ resilience?

What indicators to measure this resilience?

What are the different strategies adopted by the farming systems facing their vulnerabilities?

6

3.METHODOLOGY

7

Describe Understand Model Share with

local stakeholders

Survey – data collection

Literature

8 Achieved work

Lebanese Republic Surface area: 10452 sq. km Population: Apr. 4.4 M Study area: Apr. 1669 sq.km

Why West Bekaa & Mount Lebanon?

• ESDU projects: focusing on these 2 regions

• Accessibility

• Previous projects: focused on the Northern Bekaa – Aarsal

• Importance of farming systems in both regions and interest in studying them

9 Achieved work

10 Achieved work

11 Achieved work – Preliminary result

Description of the study area (2 research sites)

12

Between the Eastern slopes of Mount Lebanon and the Anti-Lebanon mountains – 1950/700/2814 alt. (mount Hermon)

610 - 1352 mm of rain

Vineyards, vegetables, forage , cereals and fruits orchards

Table grapes

Intensive bovine production. Large herds of small ruminants grazing on natural pastures and crop residues

West Bekaa Southern Western slopes of

Mount Lebanon – 600 to 1950 m alt.

600 – 1200 mm of rain

Olive groves, orchards of figs, apple, peaches

Small to medium sized bovine farms. Small ruminant herds graze on mountainous pastures

Shouf

Achieved work

13

Description of the study area

Proximity to the Syrian borders

Linked to large markets in W.B and C.B to sell agricultural crops

West Bekaa

Presence of the Shouf Cedars Natural Reserve

Linked to large markets in the costal Shouf to sell agricultural crops

Shouf

Achieved work

14

Pastures (Mount Lebanon)

West Bekaa

Shouf

Animal Feed

Description of the study area

Relation between the W.B and Shouf

Central Bekaa

Achieved work

15

Winter Pastures – W.B.

Achieved work

16

Summer Pastures – W.B

Summer and Winter Pastures during winter – W.B. Achieved work

17

Small bovine farms in the Shouf and W.B.

Achieved work

Survey (Jan14-Jan15)

18

Selected villages

Animal husbandry activities

Key persons and contacts

from previous projects

Direct interviews with the farmers (questionnaires)

Achieved work

4. Achieved work + Preliminary results

Questionnaire

19

Social data

Age

Education

Family labor

Outsourced labor

Other occupation

Est. of the farm

Farm Activities

Land tenure and surface

Composition of the herd

Land use: crops

Pastures use and feed source

Milk value chain

Changes

Farm activities

Number of animals

Milk and crop production

Pastures

Market

Climate

Reasons (Perception of change)

Economic data

Income of different activities

Farm expenses

Contribution of the farm

to household income

Adaptation

Achieved work

4. Achieved work + Preliminary results

20

77 FARMERS in 39 VILLAGES

Bovine 49%

Small ruminants

only 47%

Bovine + SR 4%

Herds composition

Chouf 42%

West Bekaa 58%

Farms distribution

Caprine only 54%

Ovine only 5%

Caprine & ovine 41%

Achieved work

4. Achieved work + Preliminary results

21

Pastures: less productivity, loss of some wild plants sp., limited access etc. Decrease in milk prices Increase in feed prices & cost of production Decline in crop and/or milk production Animal health: unknown diseases, decreased fertility and productivity

Climate change: decreased precipitations, drought and high temperatures Local and national policies regulating access to pastures, milk & feed prices Market: less opportunities, monopoly by traders, animal traffic from Syria Political/security situation, lack of government support

Number of herd: increase, decrease Feed: rent pastures, seek new pastures, spend more time on pastures, supplement animals with feed Change herd mobility More vaccination and treatments Nothing

CHANGES REASONS ADAPTATION

PERCEPTION of the FARMERS ACTION of the FARMERS

Preliminary results

Typology of the systems: Variables selection

22

SOCIAL FARM ASSETS FARM ACTIVITIES MILK

• 2 types comparison Region

• 3 types bovine, caprine, caprine + ovine Herd

• 2 types animal husbandry, animal-crop integrated Activity

On-going

5. On-going activities

23

FARMS TYPES

PERCEPTION of CHANGE

ADAPTATION to CHANGE

Typology of the systems

On-going

24

FARMER - Age - Village - Full-time - P. Labor - Family labor - Land - Decision

making - Adaptation

HERD - Bovine - Caprine - Ovine - Mixt SR

- Production - Reproduction

MILK - Processing - Sale of dairy

products - Direct sale - Indirect sale

CROP - Trees - Vegetables - Cereals/forage - Subsistence/co

mmercial

- Yields

PASTURE - Summer/winter - Type - Location - Tenure/rights

Other SALES - Kids - Lambs - Calves - Manure

EXTERNAL FACTORS

Climate

Policies

Market

Political/security situation

ADAPTATION

On-going

6. Future Activities

Build the model based on the indicators and factors

Test the resilience through simulations

Debate and share (validate) the model through participatory workshops with local stakeholders (farmers, extension officers, agro-engineers, feed suppliers, etc.)

Adjust the model accordingly

25

26

Survey & Data collection

Literature

Statistical analyses + typology

Determining the sustainability indicators

Building the model

Test the model and discuss it

6. Future Activities

Thank you!

REFERENCES

• Folke, C.; Carpenter, S.; Elmqvist, T.; Gunderson, L.; Holling, C.S.; Walker, B. Resilience and Sustainable Development: Building Adaptive Capacity in a World of Transformations. Ambio Vol. 31 No. 5, August 2002.

• Holling, C.S. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 1973, 4, 1–23.

• Levin, S.A.; Barrett, S.; Aniyar, S.; Baumol, W.; Bliss, C.; Bolin, B.; Dasgupta, P.; Ehrlich, P.; Folke, C.; Gren, I.-M.; et al. Resilience in natural and socioeconomic systems. Environ. Dev. Econ. 1998, 3, 221–262.

• Walker, B.; Holling, C.S.; Carpenter, S.R.; Kinzig, A.P. Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social–ecological systems. Ecol. Soc. 2004, 9, 5.

28