Asoka AbeygunawardanaExecutive Director - Energy Forum

Adviser to the Minister of Power and Energy

Energy Security and Low Carbon Development in South Asia

South Asia at night (satellite image)

World Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

IndustriesTransportElectricity and Heat

GHG Emissions % by sectors in the South Asia

SAARC STATEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE Also Mindful that the Member States of SAARC as

developing countries face the dual challenge of addressing the negative impacts of climate change and pursuing socio-economic development

Electrification in South Asia in 2009Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010

Afghan

istan

Bangla

deshNep

al

Pakist

anIndia

Bhutan

Maldive

s

Sri La

nka0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

South Asia average – but

not 24 x 7

SAARC STATEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE Also Mindful that the Member States of SAARC as

developing countries face the dual challenge of addressing the negative impacts of climate change and pursuing socio-economic development

63%

22%

10%5%

Household Electricity Access in South Asia

No Electricity ConnectionLess than 50 kWh per monthBetween 50-100 kWh per month100 kWh and above per month

65%

26%

9%

Energy Poverty in South AsiaFuel Source for Cooking Needs

Traditional Bio-Mass

Gas

Other/None

Source: IEA

United States

Annex I Parties

World People's Rep. of China

Non-Annex I Parties

India Sri Lanka

19.44

11.81

3.99

1.95 1.59 0.69 0.22

Per capita carbon emissions in 1990 (tons/y)

India Pakistan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Nepal South Asia World0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

CO2 emissions % increase by 2007 against 1990 levelsCurrent Situation

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 20600

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

CO2 emissions in Business as Usual scenario

Year

CO2

emis

sion

s (m

illio

n to

nnes

)

India projections

Source: Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi

Green House Gases- Pakistan2011 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total GHG Emissions (Mt CO2 eq.)

347 557 1046 2156 4621

Energy 176 295 560 1250 2730 % Share 50.6 52.9 53.5 58.0 59.1Agriculture 134 210 408 812 1765 % Share 38.7 37.7 39.0 37.7 38.2Industry 20 30 52 61 75 % Share 5.8 5.4 5.0 2.8 1.6LULUCF 10 13 15 20 35 % Share 2.9 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.8Waste 7 9 11 13 16 % Share 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3

Generation Expansion Plan - Sri Lanka - 2009

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

20182020

20220

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Projected CO2 % Increase in Sri Lanka

Year

Perc

enta

ge in

crea

se a

gain

st 1

990

leve

l

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00 Mini hydroWindBiomass dendroCoal Coal with lossBiomass dendro with CERs

Who is paying for whom?

Energy Supply PolicyAt 15 EUR/Ton & 0.78 kg/kWh

• Theoretically Estimated Potential - 3000 times the current need • Technically Feasible Potential• Economically Feasible Potential• Environmentally Sound Potential

Energy Supply Policy

• for bridging the gap between the avoided economic cost and avoided financial cost !!!

SAARC STATEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Commission a study to explore the feasibility of establishing a SAARC mechanism which would provide capital for projects that promote low-carbon technology and renewable energy;

and a Low-carbon Research and Development Institute in South Asian University;

Thank you

Low carbon economy: Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and Frugality- Life styles