asmg may 23 dubai

11 APRIL 2013

© GSMA 2013

WRC-15: SECURING SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

ASMG DUBAI – 23 MAY 14

Peter Lyons, Director of Public Policy – MENA

GSMA

How Much is Enough?

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE© GSMA 2014

AGENDA

Mobile Data Growth

Spectrum Demand

Potential Future Mobile Bands

What’s at Stake?


GSMA BY THE NUMBERS

MOBILE DATA GROWTH


A MOBILE BROADBAND REVOLUTION

Source: Mobile Economy, GSMA 2014


MOBILE DATA ROCKETING

Source: Ericsson mobility report 2013

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q40

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Voice Data

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

70%

qrowth in data traffic between Q4 2012

and Q4 2013

Tota

l (up

link

+ do

wnlin

k) m

onth

ly tra

ffic

(Pet

aByt

es)


For the Arab States, Broadband is MOBILE

Source : 3G Penetration (GSMA Intelligence database) Fixed Broadband Penetration (ITU)

High levels of Mobile data usage in the Arab States driven by underdeveloped fixed-line infrastructure and limited Wifi offload. Mobile Broadband Consumption to be further boosted by move from 3G to 4G and decline in cost per bitJapan 27.73%

USA 28.35%

Korea 37.25%

UAE 10.34%

Fixed BB Penetration

KSA 6.95%

EGYPT 2.80%


4G TRANSFORMS DATA USAGE4G IS CAUSING A STEP CHANGE IN AVERAGE MOBILE DATA CONSUMPTION

In Saudi Arabia, mobile traffic per user expected to reach 6.4 G-bytes per month by 2018, up from 703 MB per month in 2013, a CAGR of 55% - Cisco VNI

The average T-Mobile US subscriber on an unlimited data plan uses 5 G-bytes/mo- T-Mo US CFO Feb 2014


HOW WILL DATA USAGE CHANGE BY 2018?

In North America, mobile traffic per user will reach 9 G-Bytes per month by 2018, up from 1.4 G-bytes per month in 2013, a CAGR of 46%.

In Western Europe, mobile traffic per user will reach 4.8 G -bytes per month by 2018, up from 717 megabytes per month in 2013, a CAGR of 48%.

In Asia Pacific, mobile traffic per user will reach 2.4 G-bytes per month by 2018, up from 239 megabytes per month in 2013, a CAGR of 58%

Source : Cisco VNI

BUT WHAT DRIVES SPECTRUM DEMAND IS DATA PER SUBSCRIBER AT PEAK TIMES


RISING DATA, FALLING REVENUE PER BIT

CHINESE ACADEMY OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS RESEARCH (CATR) LOOKED AT HOW MOBILE DATA DEMAND WILL GROW ASSUMING LOWER COST PER BIT (2013)

http://www.gsma.com/spectrum/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/SOCIO-ECONOMIC-IMPACT-OF-SPECTRUM-IN-CHINA.pdf

“

From the above table it can be seen that the growth rate for data traffic is surprisingly high: Data Unit cost of 2012 is 300 Yuan, while this index declines to 7.58 Yuan in 2020; data traffic in 2015 will be 9 times as much as that in 2012; while in 2020, data traffic will be 200 times as much as that in 2012, at a compound annual growth rate as high as nearly 100%.”

Year ARPU(Yuan)

Data Unit cost(Yuan/GB)

Data Trafficper user per month (MB)

2012 65.79 300.00 53

2013 83.50 181.17 111

2014 105.98 110.82 231

2015 134.52 68.56 474

2016 170.73 44.54 925

2017 210.13 28.22 1,797

2018 250.54 17.41 3,474

2019 289.09 10.43 6,693

2020 333.56 7.58 10,629


WILL RAPID MOBILE DATA GROWTH TAIL-OFF?

IS THE REPLACEMENT OF FIXED BROADBAND NETWORKS A LOGICAL END POINT? In developing markets, lack of fixed networks means mobile networks will carry almost all data

which has a major impact on spectrum requirements

Average fixed broadband consumption in a typical Western European market Source: Analysys Mason 2013

2012 2013 2014 20150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Usag

e (G

B pe

r line

per

mon

th)

In Australia , fixed broadband data usage grew 62% from Q2 2012-Q2 2013 - ACMA: Communications Report 2012–13

In the UK, the average fibre (FTTC/FTTH) connection exceeded 110GB per month in 2012- Analysys Mason 2013

In North America , average monthly fixed broadband data usage reached 44.5GB per month in 2H 2013- Sandvine 2013

http://www.analysysmason.com/About-Us/News/Insight/FTTx-investment-case-Aug2013/






https://www.sandvine.com/downloads/general/global-internet-phenomena/2013/2h-2013-global-internet-phenomena-report-all-reports.zip


FIXED BROADBAND PENETRATIONFIXED BROADBAND SUBSCRIPTIONS PER 100 INHABITANTS, BY REGION, 2014*

WRC-15SPECTRUM REQUIREMENTS


WRC-15: MUST MEET LONG-TERM DEMAND

Allocations at WRC-15 won’t be licensed until 2020-2025 when data demand will be much higher

– The ITU assumes a 44-80x increase in mobile data between 2010 and 2020

Admins won’t need to license spectrum allocated at WRC-15 until they are ready

– Existing services can continue & be protected through coordination and regulatory conditions

– BUT if new bands aren’t allocated then admins will struggle to react to growing data traffic

Admins not planning to use WRC-15 bands in near-term will still benefit from lower cost equipment for their later roll-outs

– Early movers generate economies of scale so countries that deploy later benefit from cheaper smartphones and base stations etc..

– Economies of scale only generated through the identification of harmonized bands at WRC-15


SPECTRUM ESTIMATES IN CPM TEXT

User density settings

Total spectrum requirements

(MHz)

Region 1 Region 2 Region 3

Already identified (MHz)*

Additional spectrum

requirements (MHz)*

Already identified (MHz)

Additional spectrum

requirements (MHz)

Already identified (MHz)*

Additional spectrum

requirements (MHz)*

Low 1 340 981-1 181 159-359 951 389 885-1 177 163-455

High 1 960 981-1 181 779-979 951 1 009 885-1 177 783-1 075

SG 5 APPROVED REPORT M.2290-0 (12/2013)

Source : JTG Document 4-5-6-7/TEMP/142-E - 28 February 2014

Note *: The values in these columns have ranges since some of the frequency bands are identified for IMT only in some countries in Regions 1 and 3 as per RR Nos. 5.317A, 5.430A, 5.432A, 5.432B, and 5.433A.

THIS SUGGESTS A SHORTFALL OF AROUND 800 TO 900 MHZ (HIGH SCENARIO)


SPECTRUM ESTIMATE INPUTS TO WP5D

Doc. 5D/ 63 66 118 256 242 170 417

Source US Australia Russia China GSMA India UK

Estimation year Until 2014 Until 2020 2020 2015, 2020 2020 2017, 2020 2020

Spectrum requirements

Additional requirement of 275 MHz by 2014

Total requirement of 1,081 MHz(Additional requirement of 300 MHz by 2020)

Total requirement of 1,065 MHz(Additional requirement of 385 MHz by 2020)

Total requirement of 570-690 MHz (by 2015) Total requirement of 1,490-1,810 MHz (by 2020)

Total requirement of 1,600-1,800 MHz for some countries

Additional requirement of 300 MHz by 2017 Additional requirement of another 200 MHz by 2020

Total requirement of 775-1,080 MHz for the low demand setting Total requirement of 2,230-2,770 MHz for the high demand setting

MethodologyUsing an original methodology

Using an original methodology


Using the methodology in Rec. ITU-R M.1768-1

Using a new methodology to complement the methodology in Rec. ITU-R M.1768-1


Using the methodology in Rec. ITU-R M.1768-1

OTHER ESTIMATES THAT HELP BENCHMARK THESE RESULTS


GSMA SPECTRUM DEMAND MODELLING

GSMA model was developed by Coleago consulting (some results submitted to WP5D) Different from WP5D, in that it uses less complex approach based on how one might

dimension voice networks (Erlang and Busy hour with grade of service) Traffic is distributed over cells based on population density and total traffic and 12% daily

assumed in the busy hour, and based on current traffic profiles Operator site numbers (+ allowance for increase) major factor in determining the

spectrum The network is dimensioned to ensure 98% of cells can operate with no congestion in the

busy hour An element is built-in for quality of service (50%) and signalling (15%) The model then needs an input on the number of cells in a country and the area covered

GSMA MODEL DESCRIPTION


UAE DEMAND MODEL: ASSUMPTIONS

Area type Pop density Macro sites

Average cell size/ cell radius

User distrib.

Traffic distrib

Rural < 70 pop/sqkm 1,889 32.3 km2 / 3.2 km 37 % 32%

Sub urban 70-1000 pop/sqkm 2,426 5.3 km2 / 1.3 km 57 % 57%

Dense urban >1000 pop/sqkm 242 1.0 km2 / 0.6 km 6 % 11%

The cell sites are distributed according to user density with smaller cells in dense urban areas and larger cells in rural areas

KEY ASSUMPTIONS FOR 2020: 7 Million unique subscribers 4557 macro cell sites per operator 99 % population / 88% geographical coverage


UAE: DEMAND & RESULTS

The data traffic estimation per subscriber (not connection) differs according to area type and scenario

Lower Scenario Middle Scenario Higher Scenario

Area type Data per user per month

Spectrum Required

Data per user per month

Spectrum Required


Spectrum Required

Rural 4.3 GB 259 MHz 8.5 GB 487 MHz 12.8 GB 720 MHz

Sub urban 5 GB 322 MHz 10 GB 619 MHz 15 GB 920 MHz

Dense urban

9.6 GB 597 MHz 19 GB 1,118 MHz 29 GB 1,699 MHz

National Average

5 GB 597 MHz 10 GB 1,118 MHz 15 GB 1,699 MHz


SAUDI ARABIA: ASSUMPTIONS



User distrib.

Traffic distrib

Rural < 40pop/sqkm 5,636 175 km2 / 7.5 km 32 % 24%

Sub urban 40-500 pop/sqkm 7,232 19.2 km2 / 2.5 km 59 % 59%

Dense urban >500 pop/sqkm 802 3.9 km2 / 1 km 9 % 17%

KEY ASSUMPTIONS FOR 2020: 25 million unique subscribers 13,760 macro cell sites per operator 95% population / 53% geographical coverage



SAUDI ARABIA: DEMAND & RESULTS

Lower Scenario Middle Scenario Higher Scenario


Spectrum Required


Spectrum Required


Spectrum Required

Rural 3.8 GB 250 MHz 7.5 GB 473 MHz 11 GB 698 MHz

Sub urban 5 GB 351 MHz 10 GB 678 MHz 15 GB 1006 MHz

Dense urban

9.2 GB 625 MHz 18 GB 1,226 MHz 27.5 GB 1,830 MHz

National Average




NIGERIA: ASSUMPTIONS



User distrib.

Traffic distrib

Rural < 300 pop/sqkm 5,648 69 km2 / 4.7 km 42% 15%

Sub urban 300-3000 pop/sqkm 4,900 23 km2 / 2.7 km 45% 54%

Dense urban >3000 pop/sqkm 1,158 2.3 km2 / 0.9 km 13% 30%

KEY ASSUMPTIONS FOR 2020: 82.5 million unique subscribers 12,395 macro cell sites per operator 88% population / 55% geographical coverage



NIGERIA: DEMANDS & RESULTSLower Scenario Middle Scenario Higher Scenario


Spectrum Requir.


Spectrum Requir.


Spectrum Requir.

Rural 0.7 GB 147 MHz 1 GB 179 MHz 1.4 GB 250 MHz

Sub urban 2.4 GB 464 MHz 3.6 GB 682 MHz 4.8 GB 899 MHz

Dense urban

4.9 GB 998 MHz 7.4 GB 1,482 MHz 9.8 GB 1,968 MHz

National Average



POTENTIAL FUTURE MOBILE BANDS


NEW BANDS FOR MOBILE

RADIO SPECTRUM: IDENTIFIED MOBILE BANDS

1.8G

Hz

2.1G

Hz

2.6G

Hz

450–

470M

Hz

Digi

tal D

ivide

nd

(700

/800

MHz

)90

0MHz

2.3G

Hz

3.4–

3.6

GHz

470–694/8MHz

3.4–3.8GHzCANDIDATE BANDS

FOR WRC-15

2.7–2.9 GHz1427–

1518MHz

3.8–4.2GHz

1300–

1400MHz

GSMA has agreed widespread mobile operator support for 4 new mobile allocations

– Sub-700MHz UHF (470-694/8MHz) – 2.7-2.9GHz– L-Band (1300-1518MHz) – C-Band (3.4-4.2 GHz)

These bands can be harmonised globally to drive lower cost equipment/services

– Pursuing other bands risks creating a fragmented market negatively impacting equipment choice, price, roaming ability and could create international interference issues


TARGET BANDSTARGET BAND

BENEFIT FOR MOBILE EXISTING USAGE HOW TO ACCOMMODATE MOBILE

Sub-700 MHz (470-694 MHz)

Extremely important for bringing high speed mobile broadband everywhere

Mostly broadcast

Broadcasters can use more spectrum-efficient tech

IPTV, satellite, cable & LTE broadcast to complement DTT

L-band (1300-1518 MHz)

Good general purpose band for coverage and capacity

(excluding 1400-1427 MHz)

Comms for aircraft control systems (ie. telemetry)

Military and civilian radar Fixed links (e.g. for business) Satellite phones Earth observation satellites

1452-1492MHz largely unused globally so ideal basis for a harmonised allocation

Radar & aeronautical mobile telemetry services could potentially use spectrum more efficiently

2.7-2.9GHz Excellent capacity band Could use existing 2.6GHz

base station sites easily

Air traffic control Military radar

Band is mostly under-used so could support mobile in a portion. Big exclusion zones not needed with small guard band.

C-band (3.4-4.2GHz)

Excellent capacity band Supports fastest services Suitable for urban/suburban

areas and small cells

Fixed Satellite Services (e.g. satellite TV and broadband)

Could segment the band at 3.8 GHz in some markets

Satellite providers can use smaller portion – they use other bands in tropics w/ new tech

Big exclusion zones not needed


SHARING UHF: THE ASSUMPTIONS ARE KEY

DTT Technology Required separation (km) between the edge of the IMT BS cluster and edge of the DTT coverage area

No mitigation With mitigation

ATSC 72 km 33 kmDVB-T (18 dB PR)

30 km 14 km

DVB-T (21 dB PR)

37 km 17 km

DVB-T2 (19 dB PR)

37 km 17 km

DVB-T (21 dB PR)

43 km 20 km

ISDB-T 72 km 33 km

Interfering field strength threshold @700 MHz

Initial separation distance R

Total cumulative field strength

Increase over original threshold

New required separation distance

[dB(mV/m)] [km] [dB(mV/m)] [dB] [km]23 61 43.4 20.4 212

Source: JTG 584 (DRAFT PDNRS)

BUT THESE CAN BE UNDERMINED WHEN ASSUMPTIONS ARENT REALISTIC (E.G. BY CHOOSING UNORTHODOX NETWORK TOPOLOGIES)

ALL THE GSMA’S PROPOSED BANDS REMAIN UNDER CONSIDERATION BY THE JTG AS THE TECHNICAL/SHARING STUDIES ARE POSITIVE


L-BAND: SHARING STUDIES

Service Co channel Adjacent channel

Radars

IMT downlink: One study indicates separation distance of 560 km under certain assumptions. Other studies indicate smaller distances, and mitigation can reduce distances further.IMT uplink: Co-ordination distances less that 5 km should be possible.

IMT downlink: Combination of frequency separation and mitigation (e.g. filtering, small exclusion zones) can enable compatibility between IMT downlink and radars.IMT uplink: Studies show < 2 km with 10 MHz guard band without mitigation, and lower if IMT emissions are below generic limits.

Fixed links

Co-ordination and mitigation can enable co-existence between IMT and fixed links in different areas

Separation distances at most a few kms with small guard band (e.g. 2 MHz)

EESS (earth exploration satellites)

Guard band of a few MHz to avoid interference to EESS. IMT emissions limits may need to be tightened.

A WORKING DOCUMENT HAS BEEN DEVELOPED AIMED AT INCLUDING THESE SHARING STUDIES IN THE PRELIMINARY DRAFT NEW REPORT (PDNR) FOR EACH SERVICE


2.7-2.9 GHz

A WORKING DOCUMENT TOWARDS INCLUDING THESE SHARING STUDIES IN THE RADAR PDNR HAS BEEN DEVELOPED

There are big differences between results of worst case studies under pessimistic assumptions and studies with more realistic assumptions and/or mitigation used One study indicates co-channel separation between IMT downlink and radar > 500km

under certain assumptions, while others calculate smaller distances A combination of frequency separation and mitigation (e.g. filtering, small exclusion

zones) can enable compatibility between IMT downlink and radars IMT uplink and radars can co-exist with frequency separation ~10MHz and physical

separation < 1-2km


C-band (3.4-4.2 GHz)THE SEPARATION DISTANCES BETWEEN IMT AND FSS ARE IN THE DRAFT NEW REPORT (DNR)

Co-channel case Adjacent Channel case

IMT Macro cell 27 km up to 525 kms 1.5 to 40 km

Required separation distances could be reduced by taking into account additional effects of natural and artificial shielding.

The separation distance can be reduced by employing a guard band

IMT small cell – outdoor

3 km up to exceeding 100km 60m to 5km

IMT small cell - Indoor

Less than 1 km to tens of km, and up to 120 km

50m to less than 5km

WHAT’S AT STAKE?


WHAT’S AT STAKE: MORE THAN JUST MHz

MOBILE DELIVERS MAJOR – AND GROWING – SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS WHICH WILL BE RESTRICTED WITHOUT ADDITIONAL SPECTRUM


WHAT’S AT STAKE: MORE THAN JUST MHz

20132020


Conclusion

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPECTRUM SHORTFALL FOR IMT IN MANY MARKETS

UNLESS CONSENSUS EMERGES SPECTRUM MAY BE IDENTIFIED ON A NATIONAL BASIS LEADING TO INCREASED COSTS TO CONSUMERS OR LACK OF MOBILE DATA CAPACITY

GSMA believes that on average around 600-800 MHz probably needs to be identified Must be from harmonised bands comprising a mix of low and high frequency ranges GSMA believes that UHF, L band, 2.7/2.9, and some of C Band are the best candidates

based on:- How heavily the band is used and locations

E.G. This means part of C-Band can be used in urban areas for IMT – the rest for FSS in rural

2.7/2.9 MHz segmented to allow part of the band for IMT


MORE DATA = MORE SPECTRUM

On average 600-800MHz additional mobile spectrum needed by 2020 globally

Takes into account increasingly spectrum efficient technology (e.g. LTE-Advanced), network architectures (e.g. cell splitting & small cells) and Wi-Fi offload

This does not include existing ITU mobile bands that should be licensed to meet data demand today

More spectrum required to avoid a network slow down and higher consumer prices

New bands must be harmonised globally, or at least regionally, to create a wide range of low cost equipment and enable roaming

Coverage and capacity bands required for fast, low-cost, ubiquitous services Low frequency bands essential for

widespread mobile broadband access including rural area


WHAT IS GSMA DOING?

Create regional and national strategies to get support for our target bands

Participate in regional events - including CEPT, ASMG, RCC, ATU, CITEL and APT

Submit papers such as sharing studies into the WRC-15 process

Develop public facing position papers on the importance of future spectrum and our target bands

Outreach to key stakeholders: Government / Regulators – at

national, regional and ITU events Member operators – raising

awareness with C-level execs Ecosystem – support through in-

country engagement Thought leaders and influencers –

finding ‘ambassadors’ to champion our cause


Coleago Model


MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MARCH APRIL

CPM Report

Special committee

Publication of direct CPM text

2014 2015

Final JTG meeting

21-31 July 2014

National Regulator

RegionalGroups

APT, ATU, ASMG, CEPT,

CITEL,RCC

CPM - 15 Management

Team

CPM Meeting CPM - 15 - 2

Mobile Network Operators & Industry

WR

C -

15 G

enev

a

NOV

GETTING INVOLVED IN THE WRC-15 PROCESS

Key

Direct input

Indirect input

JTG process

CPM process


UPCOMING WRC-15 MEETINGS

MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

2014

MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOVJAN FEB MARCH APRIL

2015

APGBrisbane

APG 4 China

APG 5 Korea

Dubai TBA Q3 - TBD

AfriSWoGKenya

ATU WRC PREP Nigeria

ATU WRC PREP TBD

PTD - 6 Lux

PTD - 7 CroatiaCPG - 15 - 5 France

PTD - 8 UKCPG - 15 - 6

PTD - 9 Lithuania

CPG - 15 - 7Turkey

CPG - 15 - 8

PCC11Mexico

PCC11TBA

PCC11USA

TBA TBA TBA TBA TBA

WRC

- 15 G

enev

a


MAJOR UPCOMING ITU MILESTONES

The last Joint Task Group (JTG) meeting in July will finalise the draft Conference Preparatory Meeting (CPM) text

The CPM text is very important – Provides the technical evidence

for consideration at WRC-15 including sharing feasibility and options for developing regulations for the target bands

– Member states around the world, in particular developing countries who do not participate in the JTG & CPM meetings, use the CPM Report to develop their positions/proposals for WRC-15

Member engagement through their respective NRA is essential to ensure that:– The GSMA’s target bands are

included in the CPM Text– Analysis of sharing studies

reflects results of all studies submitted to the JTG

– CPM text dealing with methods to make new spectrum available for mobile broadband is balanced and reflects all possible technical and regulatory approaches to deal with incumbent services

asmg may 23 dubai

Documents

mobile gsma

mobile traffic

mobile data demand

mobile source

mobile economy

mobile data rocketing

mobile broadband consumption

rising data