asia pacific pay tv operators summit · analysis of pay tv arpu and penetration dynamics in asia...
TRANSCRIPT
Asia Pacific Pay TV Operators Summit April 23, 2013
2
Robust but lower subscriber growth in 2012 across Asia’s pay-TV industries
Total Pay-TV Subs, 2011 vs 2012 2012 Net Pay-TV Subs (excl. China): 13.4 mil.
413
198
444
211
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
APAC APAC (excl. China)
Su
bs
(mil.
)
2011 2012
Australasia, 0.4%
South Asia, 52%
North Asia (excl. China), 22%
Southeast Asia, 26%
3
Pay-TV penetration will approach 70% by 2020
APAC Pay-TV Subs and Penetration, 2004-2020
98 109 119 131 147 165 182 198 211 224 237 252 264 275 284 291 297 116 128 141 152 163 179
195 215
233 246 256 266 342 356 370 384 398
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
% P
enetration
S
ub
s (m
il.)
China APAC excl. China % APAC Pen/TVHH % APAC Pen./TVHH excl. China
214 237
260 283 310
344 377
413 444
470 493
517
606 631 654 675 696
4
New additions will peak in 2015
APAC (excl. China) Net Subs Adds, 2004-2020
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net
New
Ad
ds
(mil.
)
India Australasia North Asia (excl. China) South Asia (excl. India) Southeast Asia
11.0 11.3 10.2
12.4
15.5
17.8 17.0
16.0
13.4 12.7
13.4 14.3
12.7
10.6
8.8
7.4 6.5
5
Growth is increasingly robust in SEA but India dominates the regional landscape
APAC excl. China & India, % Share of Net Subs Adds, 2012 vs 2013
APAC excl. China, % Share of Net Subs Adds, 2012 vs 2013
Total: 13.4 mil. Total: 12.7 mil. Total: 7.7 mil. Total: 5.8 mil.
26% 15% 18%
9%
8% 8%
22%
22% 17%
0.4%
1% 1%
43% 54% 56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2013 2014
India Australasia N. Asia (excl. China) S. Asia (excl. India) Southeast Asia
Total: 13.4 mil.
45% 33%
40%
15%
18% 18%
39% 47% 39%
1% 2% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2013 2014
Australasia N. Asia (excl. China) S. Asia (excl. India) Southeast Asia
Total: 5.9 mil.
India, 63% Southeast Asia, 16%
North Asia (excl. China), 12%
South Asia
(excl. India),
8%
Australasia, 1%
6
Subscriber volume will remain driven by India and Southeast Asia
2012-2020 Cumulative Net Subs Adds, APAC (excl. China): 86.3 mil.
Key Markets: Korea: 8% Japan: 3%
Key Markets: Indonesia: 7% Vietnam: 4%
7
DTV transition in China and India will help drive digital penetration
10 13 16 21 32 45 60 75 97 118 139 160 178 194 206 219 228
1 4 12 28 49
67 96
126 161
191 220
246
326 345
363 381 398
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
% P
enetration
D
igit
al S
ub
s (m
il.)
China APAC excl. China % APAC Digital Pen/TVHH % APAC Digital Pen./Pay-TV Subs
APAC Digital Pay-TV Subs and Penetration, 2004-2020
11 17 28 49
81 112
156 200
258 309
359 406
504
539 569
600 626
8
Affordability and competition helps drives pay-TV adoption
Analysis of Pay TV ARPU and Penetration Dynamics in Asia Pacific (2012)
Australia
China
Hong Kong India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea
Malaysia New Zealand Pakistan
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Taiwan
Thailand Vietnam
USA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2%
% P
ay-T
V P
en./
TVH
H
Pay-TV ARPU as a % of PPP-adjusted GDP per household
9
Growing competition, higher incomes and economic will boost future adoption
Analysis of Pay TV ARPU and Penetration Dynamics in Asia Pacific (2020)
Australia
China
Hong Kong India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea
Malaysia New Zealand Pakistan
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Taiwan
Thailand Vietnam
USA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2%
% P
ay-T
V P
en./
TVH
H
Pay-TV ARPU as a % of PPP-adjusted GDP per household
10
Value creation across Asia’s pay-TV markets: (2012)
Subscription Revenue Volume Size (The Big Markets), 2012
Australia
China
India
Japan Korea
Taiwan
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
(20) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Tota
l Su
bs
(mil.
)
ARPU (US$)
Subscription Revenue Volume Size (Emerging Markets), 2012
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 10 20 30 40 50
Tota
l Su
bs
(mil.
) ARPU (US$)
11
Focus will be increasingly on value creation (2020)
Australia
China
India
Japan Korea
Taiwan
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
(20) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Tota
l Su
bs
(mil.
)
ARPU (US$)
Subscription Revenue Volume Size (The Small Markets), 2020
Subscription Revenue Volume Size (The Big Markets), 2020
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 10 20 30 40 50
Tota
l Su
bs
(mil.
) ARPU (US$)
12
Quantifying revenue contributions across pay-TV
Revenue contribution, 2012
10
20 5 2
11 48
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 Ana
log
SD
HD
VAS
Adv
ertis
ing
Tota
l
Rev
enu
e (U
S$
bil.
)
Revenue contribution, 2020
4
43
14 4
21 86
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Ana
log
SD
HD
VAS
Adv
ertis
ing
Tota
l
Rev
enu
e (U
S$
bil.
)
13
Fiber deployment will increase, mobile broadband will dominate in emerging markets
Broadband Trends By Platform, 2004-2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bro
adb
and
Su
bs
(mil.
)
Wireless FTTx ADSL Cable
63 83 111
144 193
253
320
400
478
545 599
645 685 723
760 798
835
Product innovation has already begun
Operator - Service Name Product Offering
Foxtel • On-demand, catch up services - Authenticated model • 60 linear channels, and ~200,000 titles on demand • App downloaded to 500,000+ devices • 12 linear channels (in-house) and PPV. • Available to Astro and non-Astro subs in Malaysia and select intl markets • Crosses 400,000 app downloads
• 39 linear channels and on-demand content
• 1.4mil app downloads • Offers the FMP and HBO GO OTT services to movie pack subs • Available on authenticated basis and stand-alone OTT
• ~15,000 titles available as of April 2013 • Pay OTT service for non-subs
• Provides real time access to over 140 linear channels and ~30,000 VoD titles • 4 mil. registered users
• Available to Fox Movies Premium subs • Content available online 24hours/1 week after airing on linear TV
• 1,000 hours of original HBO content available, with new releases available within 12 hours after US telecast.
Operators emerging as content powerhouses
In house* channels
Key Genres
Total Content Investment (US$ mil.)
71 20 16 26
Sports, News, GE, Movies, Ethnic,
Music, Kids
Sports, News, GE, Movies,
Lifestyle, Religious
Sports, News, GE, Movies, Music
*Includes on-demand and HD channels
Sports, News, GE, Movies, Factual,
Music, Kids
46
Sports, News, GE, Movies, Music
420 95 70 180 1,400
Varying stages of operator evolution
Launch Phase Product & Service Differentiation Platform Agnostic Packaging HD+DVR Multi-Screen Linear
When packaging works – evolution of Astro packaging
Super Pack (5)
Mini Pack (5)
Family Pack
Then (in 2010)
Multiple combinations of packs
ARPU = US$26
Mini Pack (5)
Prime Pack (2)
Plus Pack (5)
Now (in 2012)
Family Pack
Multiple combinations of packs
Overall platform ARPU = US$31
DVR + HD + VoD + MS
Astro Super Pack
But Super Pack ARPU = ~US$45
Plus Pack (2)
Pay-TV remains capital intensive
ASTRO TATA SKY AIRTEL MNC SKYVISION
US$1.6 bil. US$1.0 bil. US$0.7 bil. US$0.3 bil.
Company and
Brands
Total Investments
19
Investment activity will accelerate
Primary Investments, 2012
5.6
2.3
0.5 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Loans IPO Bonds
US
$ b
il.
Key M&A Deals, 2012
TAIWAN n TBC IPO
PHILIPPINES n Sky merger
with Destiny
INDONESIA n MNC SkyVision,
landmark IPO deal
KOREA n CJ M&A
INDIA n Providence invests in Hathway
AUSTRALIA n News Corp.
acquires CMH
MALAYSIA n Astro, large-
scale US$1.4 bil. proceeds
What’s next for operators? M
atur
e M
arke
ts
Developing M
arkets
Transition to all IP networks
User Interfaces and User Experience (UIEX)
Big data and analytics
Targeted Advertising
Tapping into pay-adverse homes
Focus on linear video + VAS
Content exclusivity
Clearer, simpler packaging
Return path via wireless broadband