asee southeast section conference integrating model validation and uncertainty analysis into an...
Post on 22-Dec-2015
221 views
TRANSCRIPT
ASEE Southeast Section Conference
INTEGRATING MODEL VALIDATION AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS INTO AN
UNDERGRADUATE ENGINEERING LABORATORY
W. G. Steele and J. A. Schneider
Department of Mechanical Engineering
Bagley College of EngineeringMississippi State UniversityMississippi State, MS 39762
• INTRODUCTION
• MS STATE LABORATORY COURSES
• METHODOLOGY
• EXAMPLE
•CONCLUSION
INTRODUCTION
•Laboratories introduce the student to the use of various measurement devices along with the associated experimental uncertainties
• Theoretical engineering models are used to compare predicted outcome with the experimental results
• Usually no consideration of the uncertainty associated with the theoretical model calculations
• Concept of engineering model validation using uncertainty analysis is extension of verification and validation research for CFD and other computational design codes
MS STATE LABORATORY COURSES
• Experimental Orientationbasic measurementsdata acquisitionconcepts of uncertainty analysis
• Experimental Techniques Iexperiment design using uncertainty analysisexperiment operation
• Experimental Techniques IImodel, plan, design, construct, operate, and analyze results of an experiment including model validation
Consider a validation comparison:
E
Ur
m ± Um
X
ri
mi
m value from the model
r result from experiment
E comparison error
E = r - m = r - m
Validation Comparison of Model Results with Experimental Results
Reality (Mother Nature)
Simulation
Experiment
Model Result, m Um
Experimental Result, r Ur
Comparison Error, E E = r - m
METHODOLOGY
The comparison error
has an uncertainty
If is less than UE, the level of model validation is UE.
If is greater than UE, the level of model validation is .
mrE
2m
2rE UUU
E
E E
For the experimental result
the uncertainty is
where
br = systematic standard uncertainty
sr = random standard uncertainty
J21 X,...,X,Xrr
s+b 2= U 2r
2rr
The systematic standard uncertainty of the result is defined as
where
and where Bi is the 95% confidence estimate (2bi) of the limits of the true systematic error for variable Xi.
2
i2i
J
1=i
2r 2
B = b
θ
X
r=
ii
θ
The random standard uncertainty of the result is defined as
s = s 2i
2i
J
1i=
2r θ
)Y,,Y,Y(fm K21
For the model result
the uncertainty is
21
K
1k
K
1k
2k
2k
2k
2km bs2U
θθ
EXAMPLE
Experiment result was the measured head loss in a pipe, hpr, over a range of flow rates.
52
25.0
m dghoCL8
fhpπ
ΔΔ
211.1
d d7.3Re9.6
log
3086.0f
ε
μπ
ρ
dhoC4
Re5.0
d
Δ
Engineering model was
where
and
Fluid Flow Test Facility
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Reynolds Number
Pip
e H
ead
Lo
ss, i
nch
es o
f w
ater
Experimental Results
Model Predictions
Experimental Results vs. Model Predictions
Variable Value SystematicStandard
Uncertainty
RandomStandard
Uncertainty
pipe head loss (hpr) Variable 0.141 in 0.04 in
orifice head loss (ho) Variable 0.05 in 0.08 in
pipe length (L) 39.125 in 0.031 in -
pipe diameter (d) 0.697 in 0.00025 in -
flow coefficient (C) 11.45 in 2.5/sec 0.089 in 2.5/sec -
roughness () 3.6X10-6 in 50% -
water density () 999 kg/m3 0.3% -
water viscosity () 1.056X10-3 Nsec/m2
7% -
Uncertainty Estimates for Result and Model Variables
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Reynolds Number
Co
mp
aris
on
Err
or,
inch
es o
f w
ater
Comparison Error
Uncertainty of Comparison Error
Comparison Error
Uncertainty Percentage Contributions
2E
2i
2i
2E
2i
2i
2/U
100s
2/U
100b θθ
Variable
Reynolds Number
22,623 48,279
SystematicStandard
Uncertainty
RandomStandard Uncertaint
y
SystematicStandard
Uncertainty
RandomStandard
Uncertaintypipe head loss (hpr) 42.6 3.4 15.1 1.2
orifice head loss (ho) 11.0 28.1 2.8 7.1
pipe length (L) 0.0 - 0.2 -
pipe diameter (d) 0.2 - 0.8 -
flow coefficient (C) 10.5 - 54.9 -
roughness () 0.0 - 0.0 -
water density () 0.0 - 0.0 -
water viscosity () 4.2 - 17.9 -
Sum = 100.0 Sum = 100.0
Uncertainty Percentage Contributions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
b, pipe he
ad lo
ss
s, pipe he
ad lo
ss
b, orifi
ce hea
d loss
s, orifi
ce hea
d loss
b, pipe leng
th
b, pipe diam
eter
b, flow
coe
fficien
t
b, ro
ughn
ess
b, w
ater
den
sity
b, w
ater
visc
osity
Perc
enta
ge
Re = 22,623
Re = 48,279
CONCLUSION
• Understanding the limitations of physical models is key to the successful practice of engineering.
• The uncertainty of both the model and experiment results are used to assess the model validity.
• The validation process allows the identification of ranges where different or improved models are needed or shows that improved variable uncertainties are needed to reduce the validation uncertainty.