as asia rises

8/9/2019 As Asia Rises

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p a p e r s e r i e s

as asia risesHow tHe west can enlarge its community of values and interests

in tHe indo-Pacific region

Daniel TwiningThe German marshall Fund oF The uniTed sTaTes


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As As R s sHow the West can enlarge its community of values and interests

in the Indo-Pacific region

Bruss s Forum P p r S r s

M rch 2010

By Daniel Twining*

T e Ge an Ma all F nd f t e United State

A C ine e Cent y? D nt Bet n It

A ia Re gen e: A P d t f t e We t Vi t y in t e C ld Wa

A ia Ri e in Hi t i al C ntext

St ategi T end in A ia

S ena i f Ea t A ia F t e Regi nal O de

A T an atlanti Agenda f

S a ing t e A ia-Pa ifi Cent y

D e E ean Integ ati n Offe a M del f A ia?

F eed in A ia

*Daniel Twining i eni fell w f A ia wit t e Ge an Ma all F nd f t e United State He i al a n ltant t t e U S g ve n ent nS t A ia and A ian e ity i e He evi ly e ved a a e be f t e State De a t ent P li y Planning Staff, a F eign P li y Advit Senat J n M Cain, and a a taff e be f t e U S T ade Re e entative T e a t wi e t t ank T a Kleine-B k ff andAnd ew S all f t ei a i tan e n t i a e He w ld al like t t ank David G d n, Ed G e e , and Mi ael G een f t ei a i tan

a ing t e t inking n key a g ent , e f w i ave been d awn f w k -a t ed wit t e


4/27

As As R s s: Ho h W s c r s commuo u s r s s h I o-P c c r o

3

Should the liberalWest brace itself for the globalprojection of Beijings modelof authoritarianmodernity inpreparation for the time whenChina rules theworld? Not yet.

F e b e ve , A e i an e n i weakne ,E e n e tain ge liti al and de g a if t e, t il in t e wide Middle Ea t, and

allenge t We te n leade i f M w tTe an ignal a new ent in w ld liti It i

a a te ized by t e de line f f ee nati n w ewe and in i le ave a ed inte nati nal

iety f ent ie and t e e e gen e f ana t ati C ine e e we w e ee ingly

n t able e n i a ent atte t ef table belief t at a itali t devel ent

lead t de a y S ld t e libe al We t b a e

it elf f t e gl bal je ti n f Beijing del f a t ita ian de nity in e a ati n f t e ti ew en C ina le t e w ld?

N t yet C ina ge liti al a ent i eating w atMa Zed ng w ld ave te ed a nt adi ti n:C ina i ing we ake t e United Statein ea ingly i tant t nea ly eve y A iannati n, in l ding C ina it elf By and la ge, A ianleade eek l e (if e eq al) elati n witWa ingt n, ld t ei U S nte a t fnegle ting t e egi n, a e in e e ab t int f

any A e i an llba k, and in ea ingly identify de ati liti al val e a a ba i f l e

e ati n wit A e i a and ea t e P laaj itie in nt ie a dive e a Ja an, India,

S t K ea, A t alia, Ind ne ia, and Vietnald t e United State in ig ega d Even C inaltivate A e i a a it t i tant exte nal

a tne N t K ea t talita ian le veta e ial elati n i wit Wa ingt n and adevel ed n lea wea n in a e ve e eff t t

e e it

Leade in Beijing in ea ingly a ea t believet at C ina g wing e n i and ilita y ig twill enable it t d inate A ia B t a ed liti al

Ma tin Ja q e ,When China Rules the World: The Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World (L nd n,U K : Allen Lane, 9)

val e , a well a anging n tellati n f we ,a e a ing t e egi n t ategi land a e Evena t ey dee en t ei e n i and di l atitie t C ina, big A ian de a ie a e b ilding val e -ba ed t ategi a tne i be a et ey nde tand t at ea e and de a y a ein e a able, a Ind ne ia f eign ini te

t it India i e ini te ay i nt y an nly be e e in a egi n f de a ie

Ja an leade i e t b ild an Ea t A ianC nity deled n t e libe al in i le f t e E ean Uni n, and S t ea t A ian leade

ave de la ed t at egi nal tability eq i ede a y at e and ab ad3 T e e a e t e

ti ing f a diffe ent A ian ent y f t e neC ina leade envi age

T e e t end give t e United State a i ingt nity t a e an e e ging A ia-Pa ifi

e a It ld eize itn t nly t g bilate alegi nal initiative , b t by w king in n e t

wit E ean allie t inten ify t an atlantiengage ent wit A ia in way t at nite Atlantiand Pa ifi de a ie in atte n f l e

e ati n and tain a n tl k nC ina w ile engaging t e nt y f a iti n

f t engt T e A ia-Pa ifi egi n en a ealf f anity, in l de five n lea we , and

n will ntain t e w ld f la ge t e n ieand bigge t navie T e e ent i t i al ent

ffe t e We t a fleeting an e t a e e e gingA ia in way t at e e ve a ivileged iti n f leade i and t engt en l ali in t e w ld

t dyna i egi n

Cited in D nald G eenlee , Ind ne ia C t R le aPea e ake in t e M li W ld,International Herald Tribune ,May , 73 F itati n and f t e di i n, ee Mi ael G een andDaniel Twining, De a y and A e i an G and St ategy in A ia: T e Reali t P in i le Be ind an End ing Ideali ,Contemporary Southeast Asia 3 , N ( 8), - 8; KHi an C ina Wa y f Hat ya a Ea t A ian C nity, Japan Times, O t 3, 9

A Chinese Century?

Dont Bet on It1


5/27

Th G rm M rsh Fu o h U S s4

If the transatlanticdemocracies, led

by the UnitedStates, dont work

with Indo-Pacificpartners to build

an enduring foundation for

global order asfive centuries

of Westerndominance ininternational

relations giveway to a new era,others not guidedby similar political

values will.

De ite t e widely t eted we ift, tA ian leade ex e a lea efe en e f U Sleade i and a e fa e f table living ina w ld in w i A e i an we , at e t anC ine e, i e nde ant If t e t an atlantide a ie , led by t e United State , d nt w k wit Ind -Pa ifi a tne t b ild an end ingf ndati n f gl bal de a five ent ie f We te n d inan e in inte nati nal elati n giveway t a new e a, t e n t g ided by i ila

liti al val e willand neit e A e i an nE ean ay like t e e lt S a t li y nan el en e t at t e new age dawning will n t

be e ne el e ent y, a Se eta y f StaC nd leezza Ri e wa ned bef e leaving ffi e4

4 C nd leezza Ri e, Re a k at t e Centennial Dinne ft e E n i Cl b f New Y k, New Y k, J ne 7, 7,

tt :// e ln nd ed /a ive df/n / tate/86 df


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5

Americans andEuropeans shouldcelebrate the

global spreadof politicaland economicmodernity through marketcapitalism and

good governanceas a historic

success for thetransatlanticallies.

T e t an atlanti nity ld n t de aive A ia et n t e n i leade i Ina gl balized w ld, A ian e gen e need n t

ean We te n de line a ginalizati n Indeed,A e i an and E ean ld eleb ate t egl bal ead f liti al and e n i de nity t g a ket a itali and g d g ve nan e aa i t i e f t e t an atlanti allie Only

in e t e end f t e C ld Wa an we eak f aninte nati nal y te t at i t ly gl bal in e,

ne t at d e n t ex l de ( t eat a e e bje t ) f ankind nlike t e E ean g eat

we de f t e 7t t ea ly t ent ie , t eB iti i e ial y te , and t e C ld Wa de

F ll wing t e lla e f t e S viet e i e and t eex an i n f f ee a ket and en liti aw at ed t be alled t e T i d W ld, t e libe alinte nati nal de t e United State n t tedwit it E ean and Ja ane e allie wit in t ei

a ed C ld Wa e e a g ne gl bal T ie e ent t e lti ate vi t y f We te n ideal in

t e l ng twilig t t ggle f 947- 989

Wit wi e leade i , t e United State andit E ean allie , ld t ey e t e

l ely bind t ei we and infl en e witea t e and A e i a at e t an de le

et eat an t ive in t e e e ging t ent y inte nati nal y te A e i a will e ain t ew ld indi en able nati n Ideally, it will d in a tne i wit a vib ant, twa d-l kingE e t at an b ild dee e tie wit A iangiant in a way t at tain a e nde an e f de ati we in inte nati nal affai A gl bal

aliti n a ng ilita ily a able, like- inded

a tne f N t A e i a, E e, and A iaw ld n t eek t d aw new ge liti al dividingline Rat e , it w ld all w We te n we andt ei nat al allie in A ia t lle tively a e, and

e in, a gl bal y te a enable t t e val eand inte e t f en ietie

C la en y a n la e in t i vi i n: n neld take t e ent inte nati nal y tef g anted A w ld wit t t e We t5 w ldbe vi lent, a ti , and illibe al, eve ing t e

i ing tide f e ity and an libe ty t ata a a te ized t e a t tw ent ie Eve y

N t A e i an and E ean a a take inllab ating t annel A ia i e in way t at

tain a libe al inte nati nal de t at ad ed g eate level f f eed and welfa e fe e le t an any t e

Ot e g eat we will allenge We te nleade i B t wit tained te n l gi aland e n i dyna i at e (in l ding adete ined eff t t ta kle i ling g ve n entdefi it and nati nal debt ), a ntin ed

it ent t bilize bli t finte nati nal tewa d i , a t di l a y, and vig gl bal engage ent, t e United State will

e ain well- la ed t anage allenge fany i aginable g eat we adve a y E e

a a itie a e e n e tain B t by eeffe tively b ndling t e we f it e be tate

wit ea t e and t at f A e i a, it ldfind t e ean t n it n ide able weig tin inte nati nal affai T e e ld be n d btt at t e United State benefit , and gain g eateleve age n e inte nati nal bje tive , f

a ed E ean leade i t tain a libe al andea ef l gl bal de a t e balan e f we ift

ea twa d

T e g eate t dange t t e We t ay n t be t ate gent A ian tate will allenge it leade if t e inte nati nal y te t g f e f a

Rat e , an nde a e iated i k i t at i ingwe like C ina will n t a e t ei a e f

5 Nati nal Intelligen e C n il,Global Trends 2025: ATransformed World (Wa ingt n, DC: G ve n ent P intingOffi e, 8), tt ://www dni g v/ni /NIC_ 5_ je t t l

Asias Resurgence: A Product of the

Wests Victory in the Cold War2


7/27


The greatestdanger to the

West may not bethat resurgent

Asian states willchallenge its

leadership of the international system through

force of arms.Rather, an

underappreciatedrisk is that rising

powers like Chinawill not assume

their share of responsibility

for the provisionof international

public goods thatundergird theliberal order.

e n ibility f t e vi i n f inte nati nalbli g d t at nde gi d t e libe al de f taining an en inte nati nal e n y tta kling li ate ange t lding t e e ity

f ea-lane and ybe a e t anaging ene gy a ity n an in ea ingly wded lanet T e

g eate t allenge f t e United State and E e

in ing de ade ay n t be fending ff eeetit in ze - ilita y nfli t , b t ve ting i ing we wit e n ibilitie fg ve nan e en ate wit t ei inte nati n

l t and t ei tat a benefi ia ie f aninte nati nal de tained di ti natelWe te n leade i


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7

As late as the1820s, when

Andrew Jacksonplanned the firstU.S. diplomaticmission across thePacific, Asia stillaccounted for over half of global GDP.

Until q ite e ently, E ean and A e i anwe e a t ed t eeing A ia a ld andlt ally i , b t elatively weak, n table, and

6 A ian ften view t e n al tate f t eiegi n q ite diffe ently Until 8 , ab t t ee-

fift f t e w ld e e and d ti nt k la e in and a nd C ina and India S did

f t e w ld ientifi and te n l gi alg e , in l ding t e la i al C ine e inventi n

f a e , ex l ive , and inting, and edievalIndia la n f de n at e ati A late at e 8 , w en And ew Ja k n lanned t e fi t

U S di l ati i i n a t e Pa ifi , A ia tilla nted f ve alf f gl bal GDP7

Ove t e next 5 yea , We te n te n l gy andind t y left A ia be ind, w ile E ean, andlate Ja ane e, i e iali de t yed indigen

liti al y te By t e 97 , afte t e C lt alRev l ti n in C ina and de ade f India elf-i ed e n i i lati n, A ia a e f t ew ld e n y ad fallen t g ly 5 e entlikely t e l w int in an i t y

A ia f t ne t en anged Regi nal litiave tabilized: alt g little e t an a ldea e evail a ng e A ian tate , t e 3

yea f t e 979 Sin -Vietna e e Wa a kt e l nge t e i d wit t ilita y nfli t a ngA ian we in e t e 7t ent y S ietie avebeen t an f ed: ity dwelle t e d ive f g wt a nd t e w lda e n w t e aj ity

f A ia lati n A ian e n ie ave beenlifted by aving and ed ati n, ex t e , andinteg ati n, a t ade ba ie fell, inf a t t e

6 T i e ti n i d awn f Edwa d G e e and DanielTwining, NBR Analysis: Shock of the NewCongress and Asia in 2009 (Wa ingt n, DC: Nati nal B ea f A ianRe ea , 9), tt ://www nb g/ bli ati n /analy i / df/Analy i _9 df 7 Ang Maddi n,The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective (Pa i , F an e: O gani ati n f E n i C -

e ati n and Devel ent, ), 63

t an f ed, and N t ea t A ia wealt y,te n l gi ally i ti ated e n ie ifted f t ei ind t ial d ti n t giant, l w-

t C ina M e e ently, India a e e ged at e w ld e nd-fa te t-g wing aj e n yA ian ien e a e ve ed a well, wit Ja an,Taiwan, and S t K ea enj ying e f t ew ld ig e t ati f e ea ending tGDP C ine e and Indian t dent lead t e ank

f f eign ien e and enginee ing t dent inWe te n nive itie and in e a e ake

aj itie f A e i an and B iti g ad ate l

b die in key field f ientifi endeav

A ia a e f w ld GDP a dingly a d bledin a gene ati n, f 7 e ent in 98 t ve35 e ent t day Alt g la king a n

a ket like N t A e i a and E e, A ia a ef gl bal GDP i ig e t an t at f t e United

State and t e E ean Uni n, ea f w ia nt f j t ve a q a te f w ld e n i

t t8 E n i evival i in t n e a ingA ian liti and di l a y S b egi n n edivided by li ited e n i ex ange, C ld Wa

liti , and ge g a i ba ie ave in ea ingly f ed int an integ ated an-A ian a e T i

a been a f n ti n f Ja an eavy inve t entin C ina and S t ea t A ia; C ina and Indiaaband n ent f e n i a ta ky; C inae e gen e a a egi nal an fa t ing b, d ivenby exte nal di e t inve t ent; t e devel ent f

egi nal in tit ti n t at b idge S t , S t ea t,and Ea t A ia; and India di l ati and e n iinteg ati n wit S t ea t and Ea t A ia M e ve ,A ian nt ie , like E ean tate in t e 95and 96 , a e g wing e f table etting

t ei wn agenda wit t U S a ti i ati n,a in tit ti nal inn vati n and it likeASEAN+3 and t e Ea t A ia S it w

8 Inte nati nal M neta y F nd, A ia R le in t e W ldE n y,Finance and Development 43, N J n , 6,

tt ://www i f g/exte nal/ b /ft/fandd/ 6/ 6/ i t e t

Asias Rise in Historical Context3


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The rural,impoverished,

and weak Asiaof the 20th

century is goneand transatlantic

policymakerswho came of

age during theCold War need

to adjust.

T be e, ld-fa i ned ge liti al etiti nf we , e tige, and e ity i alive and well int i egi n f i ing g eat we and le e tatet at live in t ei ad w C nte t f infl en ebetween C ina and Ja an, C ina and India, andt e United State and C ina a e, if anyt ing,g wing e inten e, wit g ave i li ati nf egi nal tability de ite nte vailingt end f ltilate al e ati n and e n iinte de enden e9 C etiti n between i ing

we like India and C ina ay well be e vig ve ing de ade t an between

i ing we like C ina and e tabli ed wein t e We t

9 F ex ellent ve view , ee B a a C ellaney, Asian Juggernaut: The Rise of China, India, and Japan (New Del i,India: Ha e C llin , 6); and Bill E tt,Rivals: How thePower Struggle Between India, China and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade (L nd n, U K : Ha t, 8)

F zen nfli t in t e Taiwan St ait and n t eK ean enin la, if i andled, ld b ing ajwe int di e t ilita y nf ntati n A ia

g wt elie t eavily n ta ed- t We te nn e and t little n d e ti de and,

w ile de ending e eavily n v latile MiddleEa te n and Af i an ene gy lie Ea t A i

lati n led by Ja an, t be f ll wed n bC inaa e aging a idly, eating de g a i

n t aint n e n i g wt and weje ti n T e envi n ental t e n C ina

India i a allenge g eate t an anyt ing t e We

ex e ien ed d ing it de nizati n

Yet a wit t e A ian finan ial i i f 997 9t e e a e allenge at e t an i a able

b ta le T e al, i ve i ed, and weak A ia f t e t ent y i g ne and t an atlanti

li y ake w a e f age d ing t e C ldWa need t adj t


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9

F eled by a id e n i de nizati n,A ia a g ably a t an f ed e t an any t e egi n in e t e end f t e C ld Wa Key

devel ent in l de: ( ) C ina n ide ableex an i n f it ilita y a abilitie and t einte nati nal infl en e it de ive f t e ale and

a e f it e n i g wt ; ( ) Ja an g ad al andU S - dded n alizati n a a g eat we evena it elative a abilitie a e e ded by A ia we

ift; (3) India a ent t t e t tie f i ing w ldwe and it f ntline le a an A ian balan e ;

(4) t e dee ening f A ian egi nali and

etiti n between leading Pa ifi we vet e f and e f A ia e e ging in tit ti n ;and (5) t e ead f de a y, and t ategi

e ati n a ng A ia-Pa ifi de a ie , a ae f egi nal de T e e key t end , in t n,

a e i a ting t e le f t e United State , witi tant i li ati n f b t A ia and t e We t

Chinas growing influence

C ina g wt a t e f ll e t f nati nala abilitie a ade it a tential A ian ege n

and a endant w ld we in t e an f j t afew de ade C ina end e n it ilita y t an any nt y ave t e United State It ide l ying new a abilitie f ext a- egi nal we

je ti n, in l ding a a idly ex anding ai f eand bl e-wate navy It ffen ive balli ti i ileb ild give it new ean f ible e i nwit in it egi n

C ina a be e t e la ge t t ading a tnef any f it neig b , f elling wide A ian

e ity b t ai ing a d q e ti n ab tt e i k f de enden y n a n n-allied, n n-de ati we wit evi i ni t a biti nP lling w t at l alitie aj itie in an be f nt ie dee C ina an i tante n i a tne b t at t e a e ti e a tential

e ity t eat Beijing i ing we andn e tain intenti n ti le e A ian tate well-f nded i t i al wa ine f t ei giant neig bC ina ilita y b ild al inten ifie a e ity dile a t at tivate Ja an, India, S t K ea,and S t ea t A ian tate t ex and t e le and

a abilitie f t ei a ed f e , eating t e i k f i al f in e ity a A ian g eat and egi nal

we agg e ively e ilita y de nizati n

W ile C ina e ain an e n i agnet fit neig b , t e event f t e a t few yea

de n t ate t e li it f t e att a tive wef C ina del f a t ita ian devel entWitne , f in tan e, t e la gely tile w ld

ea ti n t C ina e i n f i ing in Tibetand Xinjiang, and Beijing vet f any binding

it ent (n t nly n it elf b t wit e e tt t e devel ed nati n ) at t e C en agen

li ate ange talk Wit in it egi n, t anka tly t n e tainty ve it intenti n in i ed

by t e aq ene f it liti al y te , C inae gen e in i e n e n a well a ad i ati n

F neig b ing tate , t e ef e, a tne i

wit a benign, di tant balan ing we e ainatt a tive A Singa e a ba ad tWa ingt n, C an Heng C ee, a aid, any A ian leade efe an a y et i ally lti la

egi nal de in w i t e United State i t et nge t f eve al ente f t engt , all wing

alle A ian tate t e e ve a egi nal l alif we by b w[ing] weig t t balan e t e

giant t at be t ide t e ene

See f in tan e W ld Still Wa y f M de n C ina,BBC New , A g 4, 8, tt ://new bb k/ / i/a ia-

a ifi /754 87 t

C an Heng C ee, C ina and ASEAN: A G wingRelati n i , Re a k t t e A ia S iety Texa Ann alA ba ad F and C ate C nfe en e, H t n, Feb3, 6, tt ://a fa g v g/ / ead_ ntent a ?View,44 6

Strategic Trends in Asia4

Chinas resurgenceinspires concernas well asadmiration. For neighboring

states, therefore,partnership witha benign, distantbalancing power remains attractive.


11/27


Even if Chineseleaders want their country to emerge

as a status quo superpower,

the size and scale of its

displacement of existing balances

may make thatimpossible;

Chinas impact onthe international

system may simply be too

great, irrespectiveof Beijingsintentions.

Debate ntin e ve w et e C ina if nda entally a evi i ni t we wit agg e iveintenti n a tat q we t at ntin e tbenefit en ly f t e exi ting inte nati nal

y te H weve , t e intenti n f it leade ay be t e w ng va iable by w i t j dge C inaa biti n Even if C ine e leade want t ei

nt y t e e ge a a tat q e we ,t e ize and ale f it di la e ent f exi tingbalan e ay ake t at i ible; C ina i a t

n t e inte nati nal y te ay i ly be tg eat, i e e tive f Beijing intenti n C ina

ay well e e ge a a t ategi etit t t eUnited State by vi t e f t e t t al i e ativet at nf nt a i ing w ld we dete ined t

e e it eve -ex anding inte e t , i e e tive f it leade a biti n t e a ea ef l i e

C ina ilita y de nizati n ntin e at ann e edented a e and i iented a nd denying

U S a e t t e egi n and ex l iting niq eU S v lne abilitie C ina ntin e t lai va tt a t f te it y in India, f eling ten i n al ng t ew ld l nge t n e lved b de Beijing a n t

at ed it willingne t e lve land b nda y di te wit t e neig b wit a i ilawillingne t e lve eting a iti e lai ,a ntin ing f i ti n wit S t ea t A ian tate

ve C ina ex an ive lai t t e S t C inaSea atte t M e ve , C ine e nati nali ld

la e e e n leade in Beijing t a e ae v ative exte nal t e

H weve , by vi t e f it A ian allian e and b adegi nal a e tan e f it till- e nde ant we

al ng t e Pa ifi i , t e United State i well

iti ned t e nd t C ina ld it a ea e agg e ive egi nal e allenge t e val e nde inning We te n leade i f t einte nati nal y te C ine e leade nde tandt i lea ly and enly a kn wledge A e i a

taying we in t e egi n and gl bally

A Normal Japan?

Hi t i ally, Ja an a wn a t iking ability t a idly t an f it elf in e n e tinte nati nal nditi n , a een in t e Meijib eak f i lati n, t e i e t g eat we int e t ent y, t e de ent int ilita i ,and enewal a a dyna i t ading tate T e

nventi nal na ative ab t t e i e f C inaand India a b ed t e ntin ed elevan e Ja ane e we : it a t e w ld e nd-la ge n y, a navy t ee ti e t e ize f G eat

B itain , an advantage ge g a i iti n,an end ing allian e wit t e United State ,n ide able ft we in A ia,and a en ity

t ef and enew it elf in t e fa e f t tallenge f t e inte nati nal y te

Ja an i t ggling t be e a n al we ,and a t te entat e gnize t at it, n let an C ina and India, will a e A ia t ategif t e 3 Sin e t e id- 99 , Wa ingt n andT ky ave ed t e f a ew k f t ei allian et ex and Ja an e ity le and a abilitie

ving it y te ati ally in t e di e ti n f be ing a egi nal and gl bal e ity videJa an a taken n new e n ibilitie wit int e allian e, devel ed i tant new a abilitief we je ti n, and, in a i t i fi t,de l yed it Self Defen e F e t t e Afg anand I aq t eate f wa S e ive Ja ane e

i e ini te ave a ti lated n e edenteda biti n f Ja ane e g and t ategy T e e ain l ded: a ting Ja an a t e t g t leade f

C i t e W itney and David S a ba g ,Soft Power in Asia: Results of a 2008 Multinational Survey of Public Opinion, C i ag C n il n Gl bal Affai , J n 8, tt ://wwwt e i ag n il g/U e File /File/POS_T line% ReA ia% S ft% P we % 8/C i ag % C n il%S ft% P we % Re t-% Final% 6- - 8 df

3Pyle, Kennet , Japan Rising: The Resurgence of Japanese Poweand Purpose (New Y k, NY: P bli Affai , 7); Ri a dSa el , Securing Japan: Tokyos Grand Strategy and the Future ofEast Asia (It a a, NY: C nell Unive ity P e , 7)


12/27


11

The West has aunique strategicopportunity withIndia, which inmany respectsresembles

America just over a century ago:it is a pluralisticdemocracy with a self- exceptional regardexperiencing rapideconomic growthand moving fromregional to globalpower.

A ia, f ging new bilate al allian e wit Indiaand A t alia, e ating wit t e e and t ede ati we in an A f F eed andP e ity, f alizing e ity e ati n witNATO, n t ting a Pa ifi nity a ndan inland ea ente ed n Ja an a t e b f t einte nati nal e n i and liti al de , andb ilding a f ate nal Ea t A ian nity witJa an at it ente 4

Ja an t ategi f t e e ain n e tain in lig tf t e nt y ning d e ti liti and

t bling e n i and de g a i t end Yett e e i n q e ti n t at ilita y de nizati nin C ina and N t K ea a ed a newJa ane e ea f e ity and identity t at a

ved T ky de i ively bey nd t e n t aint t att t ed it f eign li y f 5 yea f ll wing

defeat in t e Pa ifi Wa A g ably, t e a ent f t eDe ati Pa ty f Ja an (DPJ), wit it all f a

e eq al U S -Ja an allian e and g eate Ja ane einde enden e in e ity and di l a y, i yetan t e te f wa d in Ja an t an f ati n intw at DPJ leade I i Ozawa fa ly alled a

n al nt y 5

Indias ascent

T e We t a a niq e t ategi t nity witIndia, w i in any e e t e e ble A e i a

4Ta A , A ian St ategy a I See it: Ja an a t e T g tLeade f A ia, T ky , De 7, 5, tt ://www fa g j /ann n /f /a / ee 5 ; S inz Abe,Utsukushii Kunihe(Towards a Beautiful Country), T ky : B n n S in , 6;Ta A , A f F eed and P e ity: Ja an Ex andingDi l ati H iz n , T ky , N v 3 , 6, tt ://www fag j /ann n e/f /a / ee 6 t l ; Ya F k da,W en t e Pa ifi O ean Be e an Inland Sea, S ee t t e

4t Inte nati nal C nfe en e n t e F t e f A ia, T ky , May , 8, tt ://www fa g j / egi n/a ia- a i/ ee 8 5-

t l ; Y ki Hat ya a, Ja an New C it ent t A ia:T wa d t e Realizati n f an Ea t A ian C nity, Re a kt t e S Raja atna S l f Inte nati nal St die , Singa e,N v 5, 9, tt ://www kantei g j /f eign/ at ya a/

tate ent/ 9 / 5 inga e_e t l 5I i Ozawa,Blueprint for a New Japan: The Rethinking of a

Nation (T ky , Ja an: K dan a Inte nati nal, 994)

j t ve a ent y ag It i a l ali ti de a y wit a elf-ex e ti nal ega d ex e ien ing a ide n i g wt and ving f egi nal tgl bal we W ile t e l ng-te t end f l e

a tne i i lea , Indian e ati n witt e United State and E e will n t be ea y a t ati B t ide will fa e a ti la allengew king t get e effe tively n li ate ange,t ade, and t e gl bal i e w e e diffe entlevel f devel ent li ate ltilate al

e ati n H weve , few t e nt ie a ea nve gen e f inte e t a t e liti al,

e n i , and ilita y e t like t at a edby t e United State and India A it devel , t i

a tne i ld vide a de ati an f tability and e ity b t egi nally and in t e

e e ging inte nati nal de

C ina la n ed e n i ef al t 5yea bef e India, and e n i ally India t day

e ain g ly t at fa be ind C ina H weve ,it a i tant l ng-te advantage a y ngew kf e, a i ing de g a i file, anda liti al y te t at an a date ange

and i t e ef e le ne t liti al nv l i nIndia de g a i dividend will d e a

i ing w king-age lati n at a ti e w enC ina i g aying d a ati ally; any ex e t t el ng-te t end ate f Indian e n i g wtt a C ina wit in a de ade6 India al aa ge g a i iti n in any way e i tC ina It it at t e ente f it wn ea, wit t eene gy e e f t e Middle Ea t and Cent alA ia n ne ide and t e g wing e n ie inA ia n t e t e

India, like C ina, al need t be able t vebey nd it egi n t lead n t e gl bal tageUnlike C ina, w e neig b in l de a n be

6T a P dda and Eva Yi, India Ri ing G wt P tential,Gl bal E n i Pa e N 5 (New Y k, NY: G ld anSa , Jan , 7), tt ://www indiaf iend i net/ view int /India _Ri ing_G wt _P tential df


13/27


f t ng and a able tate , India i ndedby weak and failing ne T e e i a le f t eWe t in en aging India t e it e n i

agneti and it n ide able tential ftwe a a t iving de a y t el t an f

it egi n int ne t at i e , well-g ve ned, and e e India nat ally ld bet e engine f e n i integ ati n in S t andCent al A ia; New Del i a a elling inte e tin ve ing liti al b ta le t ealizing t i vi i n Ot e wi e, India gl bal i e i k being

nde t by t e ble f it egi n, in l ding

g ve nan e, te i , and la k f e n iinteg ati n India will al need t inve t in it

an a ital and bilize it e le t e b a et e inte nati nal e n ibilitie t at a any g eat we

Asian regionalism

A f t key t end defining A ia t ategi tl k i t e i e f A ian egi nali It i n table t atA ian in tit ti n-b ilding a been a a te izeda by etiti n between egi nal wet et it te and e a by e ati n t

n t t a new A ian nity Sin e t eid- 99 , Ja an and C ina ave viewed A ianegi nali a ne a ena in w i t lay t t ei

nte t f tat and infl en e, de n t ated td a ati ally in t e n- t t e ina g al Ea tA ia S it in 5

In additi n t etiti n between big A ianwe t d ive egi nal in tit ti n-b ilding

in way t at axi ize t ei infl en e, A ianegi nali a al been i a ted by a tw -

de ade-l ng wave f de atizati n in Ea t andS t ea t A ia t at a anged t e d e ti

iti n f key tate like Ind ne ia T i , int n, a affe ted t e te by w i tate

elate t t ei neig b Key n e taintie in l dew et e A ia an tain an en egi nalit at in l de t e United State and t e f iendly

we , and f t e e ex l ive A ian ft at d n t, w et e t ey an etain ffi ientl ali t te t t e a t n inte e t

alle tate f being t a led by egi nalgiant , led by C ina

T at aid, fea f an in la A ian e n i aliti al bl a e bably ve bl wn M t A

tate efe a f f en egi nalit at in l de t e United State and f iendly

we like India and A t alia New in tit tild in l de a f ee-t ade a ea f t e Pa ifi

tying t get e t e w ld t dyna ie n ie T ey ld in l de a f alizedA ian g eat we n e t, f w i t e Six-Pa ty Talk ab t N t K ea n lea g

ave laid a f ndati n Dee ening a tne ia ng A ian de a ie a e al likely, w etin t e f f a U S -Ja ane e-Indian-A t aliaq ad ilate al, U S -Ja an-A t alia and U S -India t ilate al , e f alized tie linking

ilita ily a able A ian de a ie wit NATOa tne , a b ade g ing f de a

dedi ated t ting g d g ve nan e and

le f law in f like t e A ia-Pa ifiDe a y Pa tne i

Values-based cooperation

A ian nati n ave been ve ly de endent n U Silita y we t aintain egi nal ea e T ia led ffi ial in Ja an and el ew e e t all f

a g eate f n nity-b ilding wit inA ia in it f a e f ate nal a a

egi nal de 7 B t wit t a n en n t ee f d e ti legiti a y, A ian egi nal

in tit ti n ann t e li ate t e ea e f Ean A ia divided by i t y and lt e, de a

vide a t an nati nal identity t at i eating new ba i f egi nal e ati nlinkage b

7Y ki Hat ya a, A New Pat f Ja an,New York Times, A g 6, 9

It is notable that Asian institution- building has been

characterizedas much by competition

between regionalpowers to set itsterms and scope

as by cooperationto construct a new Asian community.


14/27


13

Vibrant relationsbetween theWest and Asiasbig democracies

should help sustain apluralistic regionalorder in whichnorms of good

governance andrule of law canflourish in waysthat, over time,

shape Chinas owninternal debateabout politicalliberalization.

a nd val e , de ati e ity, and a libe albelief in en a ket t at E ean tate w ldbe wi e t ta int in it f t e gl bal infl en et e E ean Uni n a i e t wield

Ja an a inked a e ity a t wit A t alia,T ky fi t t ide it U S allian e8 India andJa an a e n t ting a an-A ian a tne iwit ext a dina y e n i and ilita y

tential 9 T e United State i ing t ategit ilate ali wit Ja an and A t alia, n t e

ne and, and Ja an and India, n t e t e

Ja an ade t e fi t eff t t link it elf witIndia, A t alia, and t e United State in w atC ine e t ategi t fea ed ld be e an A ianNATO A t alia a e ati nalized e ity

a t wit Ind ne ia and India, taking defen eelati n wit b t t a q alitatively ig e level

Ind ne ia i a tively debating a t-ASEANf eign li y t at w ld eje t t e in i le f n n-inte fe en e in neig b inte nal affai infav f a b t it ent t t e ti n f g d g ve nan e and an ig t ab ad a

8De a t ent f F eign Affai and T ade, A t alianG ve n ent, A t alia-Ja an J int De la ati n n Se ity C e ati n, Ma 3, 7 tt ://www dfat g v a /ge /ja an/a _ja _ e ity_de t l

9Anil J e , India, Ja an Ink Se ity Pa t,Hindustan Times ,O t , 8

See f in tan e Joint Statement, Australia-Japan-United States,Trilateral Strategic Dialogue , Sydney, Ma 8, 6, tt :// wwwf eign ini te g v a / elea e / 6/j int_ tate ent-a - ja an_ a_ 8 3 6 t l; Hilla y Clint n, Re a k n Regi nalA ite t e in A ia: P in i le and P i itie , Re a k at t eEa t-We t Cente , H n l l , Hawaii, Jan , , tt ://www

tate g v/ e eta y/ / / / 35 9 t

C enta y: U S D ea f A ian NATO,China Daily,J l 8, 3

De a t ent f F eign Affai and T ade, A t alianG ve n ent, J int De la ati n n C e en ive Pa tne iBetween A t alia and t e Re bli f Ind ne ia, Canbe a,A 4, 5, tt ://www dfat g v a /GEO/ind ne ia/

e en ive_ a tne i _ 5 t l ; Offi e f t e P i eMini te f A t alia, India-A t alia J int De la ati n nSe ity C e ati n, New Del i, N v , 9, tt ://www

g v a /n de/63 4

e f e ity at e, a befit t e w ldt i d-la ge t de a y3

Dee e n i inte de enden e wit C ina anda ntin ing f n inte nal devel ent eant at A ia i nlikely t divide int ge liti albl B t t e egi n t ategi f t e will be

a ed in i tant way by t e e f de ati l ali in de ating t e i l e

f a t ita ian Sin ent i ity t vide t e blig d f e ity, tability, and e ity t atA ian e le ave

Indeed, A ia liti al t an f ati nt eegi n-wide e b a e f de a y ay be

a i tant a it e n i t an f ati n indete ining it t ategi f t e M e e le live

nde de ati le in A ia t day t an in any t e egi n Vib ant elati n between t e We t

and A ia big de a ie ld el tain al ali ti egi nal de in w i n f g d

g ve nan e and le f law an fl i in wayt at, ve ti e, a e C ina wn inte nal debateab t liti al libe alizati n C e ati n a ngA ian de a ie even a t ey l ely engageC ina ld al lay an end ing f ndati nf ea e ld a f ee C ina ne day e e ge tbe e t e nat al leade f an A ian nity

f de a ie , eating new ibilitie fE ean- tyle egi nal integ ati n and a gl bal

nd ini f g e ive, libe al tatededi ated t t e it f ea e

3Rizal S k a, Ind ne ia Need a P t-ASEAN F eign P li y, Jakarta Post, J n 3 , 9


15/27


There are four broad pathways

for Asian security order: (1) a

continuationof the present,

Lockean order;(2) a Hobbesian

balance-of-power order; (3) a

Kantian security community likethe EU; and (4)

a Sinocentricregional order

oriented arounda new Middle

Kingdom.

In lig t f t e e key t end , f b ad at wayf Ea t A ian e ity de a e ible vet e ing de ade , wit dete inative effe t

n A ia elati n wit t e We te n nity f de a ie T ey a e ( ) a ntin ati n f

t e e ent, L kean de t at ixe le -ba ed e ati n and q iet etiti n wit ina egi nal f a ew k t t ed a nd exi tingalign ent tained by A e i an leade i ;( ) a H bbe ian balan e- f- we de f

n n t ained g eat we etiti n f eled by dyna i ift in elative we and a ed ed

U S le t at ind e agg e ive elf- el be avia ng egi nal tate ; (3) a Kantian e ity

nity in w i an Ea t A ian nity devel al ng t e line f E e de ati

ea e, wit C ina liti al libe alizati n ae nditi n f a egi nal ev l ti n;

(4) a Sin ent i egi nal de t at tain adiffe ent kind f Ea t A ian nity n t eba i f C ina exten i n f a e e f infl en ea t e egi n, in kee ing wit t e e- de nA ian de in w i a ie a y f defe en e t aC ine e Middle Kingd t t ed Ea t A ianinte nati nal elati n 4

A Lockean order

In t e fi t ena i , ntin ed A e i ana iti e e nde an e and t e U S allian ey te tain a e ity de in w i C ina

P ianizati n,5 N t K ea n lea i ief,and t e tential e ity dile a in Ea tA ia a e itigated by t e e nde an e f weenj yed by t e United State and it allie , dete ingagg e ive evi i ni n t e a t f Beijing

Py ngyang and ntin ing t ly t e bli

4David Kang, China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia (New Y k, NY: C l bia Unive ity P e , 7)

5H lge He wig and Willia Sate ,The Grand Illusion: ThePrussianization of the Chilean Army (O a a, NE: Unive ity f Neb a ka P e , 999)

g d t at nde lie Ea t A ian e ity In an de , A ian egi nali ld ntin e t t , b t n t e ba i f a t an egi nal tl

in w i t e United State e ain a e identwe 6 and e n i integ ati n ntin e

t be iented a nd a Pa ifi at e t an anex l ively A ian axi G eat we like Ja anIndia, e nda y we like S t K ea, and

tate f S t ea t A ia ld ntin e t engage n i ally and di l ati ally wit C ina,

nfident t at t ei e ity tie wit t e UnitedState n tit ted a edge again t falling nde

Beijing way

In t n, C ina devel ent w ld be a ed by t e binati n f engage ent wit t e UnitedState and it f iend in A ia and E e, and byt e dete ent effe t f A e i a f wa d ilita

e en e and allian e it ent T e e ai et e t f C ine e advent i , all wing Beijit f it e e n inte nal devel entand ea ef l exte nal engage ent at e t an nt eatening ing it g wing nati nal we

evi e A ia de again t t e wi e f le e

A Hobbesian order

In t e e nd ena i , a U S et eat inti lati ni ( e a f ll wing wit d awalleading t a elf-infli ted defeat in Afg ani tan)

a ele ated ate ial de line (ind ed by te ti ni fail e t eve e A e i a

ala ing level f nati nal debt) w ld lead t t eweakening f Wa ingt n allian e it entin Ea t A ia and it willingne t e ain t e

egi n e ity g a ant S a egi nal w ld be i e f ival y, a f e a t by eali

la afte t e C ld Wa , w en an A e i anwit d awal f t e egi n and aw balan ingbe avi in t e id t f dyna i we ift

6R be t Gate , Re a k t t e S ang i-La Dial g e,Singa e, May 3 , 8, tt ://www defen elink il/ ee

ee a x? ee id= 53

Scenarios for East Asias Future

Regional Order5


16/27


15

Politicalliberalizationin China wouldmake an Asiandemocratic peaceboth possible and

self-reinforcing.

ee ed likely t ake A ia f t e l k likeE e a t 7

S a balan e- f- we de w ld feat eelf- el be avi by A ian tate f t e kind t ata been itigated t date by A e i an defen e

it ent Ja an, S t K ea, and Taiwanig t devel and de l y n lea wea n

a t e nly ean f e ing t ei a t n y again t t e C ine e ilita y giant in t ei id t(and additi nally, in S t K ea a e, again ta Ja ane e neig b f w Se l i t i ally

a been eq ally wa y) C ine e leade ig tfind t e elve f ee t e t ei de la edevi i ni t ai in t e S t C ina Sea,8 n

l nge n t ained by A e i a Sevent Fleetand b t allian e netw k Le e A ian tatew e te it ial lai nfli t wit C ina w ldfind t ey ad le ability t leve age a et eatingA e i a t in t ei fav

A Kantian order

In t e t i d ena i , A ia w ld ev lve in E edi e ti nn t t e lde E e f g eat webalan ing and wa , b t f t day E eanUni n, in w i de- ilita ized ietie betweenw i wa i in n eivable enj y t e f it f de ati ea e wit in a f a ew k f a ede n i g ve nan e and in tit ti nalized liti al

dinati n S a at way f egi nal dee e t at A ian egi nali devel in a

l ali ti way t at e e ve t e a t n y f le e A ian tate , at e t an de iving f a n n-

n en al exten i n f C ina e e f infl en eIt al e e a d vetailing f A ian egi e ty ein a de ati di e ti n Afte all, it wa nly t e

7Aa n F iedbe g, Ri e f Rival y: P e t f Pea e ina M lti la A ia,International Security 8, N 3 (Winte

993/4), 5-338See f in tan e Edwa d W ng, Vietna Enli t Allie t

Stave Off C ina Rea ,The New York Times, Feb 4, 9

e ti n f de ati nt l ve evi ly ilita i ti E ean egi e f ll wing t eidefeat in wa t at ade ible t e in tit ti naldee ening t at a defined t e t-W ld Wa IIE ean je t

An t e ne e a y, and ften n tated, nditi nf t e devel ent f E e Kantian de f

e et al ea e a been t e A e i an e ity b ella It a eated a e ity n wit in

w i E ean g ve n ent ld dedi atet ei nati nal e e t d e ti welfa e

at e t an ilita y defen e and ane ve ingagain t tential adve a ie I ni ally, t en, t edevel ent f a l ali ti and ea e-l ving Ea tA ian nity al ng t e line f t e E eanUni n ay eq i e t e ntin ed le f t e UnitedState a t e egi n e ity g a ant , a le t atw ld nat ally be e a enable t Wa ingt nleading egi nal etit C ina ldt at nt y e t e liti al libe alizati nt at w ld ake an A ian de ati ea e b t

ible and elf- einf ing

A Sinocentric order

In t e f t ena i , an Ea t A ia nity f e n i inte de enden e and an- egi nal

e ati n w ld devel n t al ng line f de ati l ali , b t a an exten i n f anin ea ingly d inant C ina Rat e t an t e

iz ntal ve eignty between tate t at devel edin t-We t alian E e t g t e in tit ti n

f t e balan e f we , a egi nal dew ld feat e ie a i al elati n f ze ainty and b i i n f t e kind t at a a te ized

e- de n Ea t A ia w en C ina MiddleKingd wa t ng and e ive, and le eneig b ing tate aid it alized f f t ib tet it A Sin ent i Ea t A ia ld e e ge t f t i i t i al a t It ld al e e ge t gw at ne eali t inte nati nal elati n la

nde tand t be t e i e ative f g eat we t


17/27


The prospectof zero-sum

balancing and self-help behavior

among Asian states subjectto predation by

larger neighborsrecalls Europeswar-prone past,a history that if

replicated wouldupend the Asian

economic miracle.

enj y egi nal ege ny9

T e M n e D t ineand it R evelt C lla y e it ized t i ein t e 9t and ea ly t ent ie wit e e t tt e United State and Latin A e i a

A C ine e e e f infl en e en a ing Ea tand S t ea t A ia e e t at tate like Ja anand S t K ea w ld bandwag n wit , at et an balan e again t, C ine e we T i ldf ll w f eit e a la k f exte nal allian e ti n

t f a ee e gent A ian identity; in a ena iin w i t ey we e e n i ally and ge liti ally

Finlandized, t ey ig t ave n i e3

AnA ian y te in w i C ina at at t e it f a ie a i al egi nal de e e t at A ianin tit ti n-b ilding devel al ng l ed line f A ian ex l ivity, at e t an being a a te izedby t e en, t an -Pa ifi egi nali t at a beent e d inant i l e be ind A ian nity-b ilding in e t e ea ly 99

Preferred pathways to regional order

W e e d t e inte e t f t e t an atlantinity lie in lig t f ea f t e e ible

9J n Mea ei e ,The Tragedy of Great Power Politics(NewY k, NY: W W N t n, )3 Ga y S itt, ed ,The Rise of China: Essays on the FutureCompetition (New Y k, NY: En nte B k , 9)

at way f Ea t A ian egi nal de ? It eelea t at Pat way and 3t e ent L kde tained by A e i an e nde an e a

vi i n f t e bli g d t at nde lie EaA ia ea e and e ity, and t e devel e

f a Kantian e ity nity g nded int e de ati ea ea e t fav able tt e e ity and e ity f t e We t, n t t

enti n t e va t aj ity f A ian e lePat way , t at f ze - balan ing and

elf- el be avi a ng A ian tate bje t tedati n by la ge neig b , e all E e

wa - ne a t, a i t y t at if e li ated wend t e A ian e n i i a le Pat way 4,

t at f a Sin ent i egi nal e e f w iWe te n we a e ex l ded and le e tatet ei ability t ane ve f eely a t ei a t ne de in t e fa e f ve weening C ine einfl en e, i lea ly n t t e kind f egi nal dt w i t e We t A ian allie , dete ined t

etain t e integ ity and inde enden e f t eieland , a i e T at t e itizen f any A

nati n view C ina a a tential e ity t eaeinf e t e lai t at t ey d n t want t ei

nt y t be bje t t it t telage in d e tiliti exte nal affai


18/27


17

China ismore likely tobe a better

global citizen,and pursueconstructiverelations withEurope, if it doesnot have a freehand to dominateits neighbors butinstead remainsone of severalimportant powersin a regionalequilibrium

sustained by theUnited Statesand its security partners.

A ian a e like e tat in a vie t eate T ey a e all l king at t e een, w i i A e i a,at e t an at ea t e 3 S ay ne f Ja an

a te t t ategi t inke , and e i ig t De itet e y e nding t e i e f C ina, it e aint e United State t at vide t e bli g d f

de , e ity, and e ity in Ea t A ia; C inain any e e t f ee- ide n t e e bli g dt tain it f n inte nal devel ent Andit i t e q ality f elati n wit t e United Statet at el dete ine t e nat e f A ian tate

elati n wit ea t e F in tan e, Ja an-C ina

elati n w ld be adi ally diffe ent in t e ab en ef t e U S -Ja an allian e; New Del i elati n i

wit Beijing anged ignifi antly in t e wakef t e U S -India t ategi a e ent M t

A ian nati n efe A e i an ee inen e t t ealte native and want t kn w t at U S P e identBa a k Oba a a a t ategi vi i n f tainingA e i an leade i in a egi n t at ave it He ei w at t ey want t ee:

Continuing commitment to Americanalliance leadership

T e A e i an allian e y te , and t e e ity g a antee and f wa d ilita y de l y ent t at

nde in it, e ain an i tant tabilizing f ein a egi n ex e ien ing t e kind f dyna i iftin elative we t at ften lead t a a ing,

egi nal la izati n, and nfli t In t i ntext,U S leade i vide a tabilizing ea an et A ian tate t at ig t t e wi e need t eagg e ive li ie t vide f t ei wn e ityA e i an allian e it ent t Ja an, S tK ea, and t e nati n te w at liti al

ienti t all nde balan ing egi nal tateenj ying U S te ti n a e able t inve t e f t ei nati nal e e in t e it f ea e

3 Inte view wit N b kat Kane a a, Di e t , F eign P li y Divi i n, Mini t y f F eign Affai , T ky , A il 7

at e t an e a ati n f wa T i in t n elea e t ei neig b

A ian a e a ti la ly wat ing t ee wP e ident Oba a andle t e nfli t wit Ja an,Wa ingt n t i tant egi nal ally, vet ba ing ig t Many A ian tate fea t ata Ja an n a kled f it l e allian e witt e United State w ld be a de tabilizing f ein t e egi nw i i w y any A ian

nt ie a la ded t e deft allian e anage entwn by f e U S P e ident Bill Clint n and

Ge ge W B T e inex e ien e f t e newJa ane e g ve n ent ake t i a eal allengef P e ident Oba a He ay ave t eak a tJa an n e tain leade i and di e tly t t eJa ane e bli , w i ve w el ingly ta eat ly U S allian e, t ally bli t fa t nge and e a able U S -Ja an e ity

a tne i f t e t ent y

F a t an atlanti e e tive, t e U S e ity le in Ea t A ia ade ible by a t ng U S -

Ja an allian e i a bli g d t at benefit E eWa ingt n e ity g a antee lay a iti al

le in tabilizing a egi n t at will be t e ti tant new e f e ity t g t adeand inve t ent f t e e n ie f E e AndC ina i e likely t be a bette gl bal itizen,and e n t tive elati n wit E e, if itd e n t ave a f ee and t d inate it neig bb t in tead e ain ne f eve al i tant

we in a egi nal eq ilib i tained by t eUnited State and it e ity a tne

Commitment to free trade

T e libe al inte nati nal e n i de ad ed a g eate deg ee f wealt f e

e le t an any t e e n i y te in i t yWe te n leade i f t i de , ba ed in a t nU S and allied nt l f t e gl bal n ,

a all wed A ian tate in l ding C inat

A Transatlantic Agenda for

Shaping the Asia-Pacific Century6


19/27


devel dee linkage wit ea t e and t ew ld B t ex t-de endent A ian e n ielike C ina and S t K ea and n e -d ivene n ie like India fav g eate inte nati nalt ade libe alizati n a a way t tain t e fl w

f t ade and inve t ent t at d ive t ei g winge ity T i i b adly t e even t g i ing

A ian we diffe ent tage f devel ent vi --vi t e We t eate nfli t ve t adelibe alizati n in e ifi e t like ag i lt e ingl bal t ade neg tiati n

P e ident Clint n nde t d A ia f nda entalelian e n en inte nati nal t ade and finan ialfl w He w ked a dingly t b ing C ina intt e W ld T ade O ganizati n and t engt ent e A ia-Pa ifi E n i C e ati n F(APEC) P e ident B al nde t d t i

eality, igning a f ee t ade ag ee ent wit S tK ea and adv ating a F ee T ade A ea f t eA ia-Pa ifi (FTAAP) Leade f t e E eanUni n lately ave ed a i ila ly t ategia a t t ade libe alizati n wit A ia: witnet e new EU-S t K ea F ee T ade Ag ee ent

and EU neg tiati n f a f ee t ade ag ee entwit India P e ident Oba a ld end t e ig t

e age t A e i a A ian a tne by ledgingt t e U S C ng e t atify t e talledK ea-U S F ee T ade Ag ee ent i ediately

Determination to promote open regionalism

M t Ea t and S t ea t A ian tate fav an en f f egi nali t at en e e exte nal

we , aking t e a ed a tne wit aneq al take in egi nal tability and e ityS alle A ian tate want t av id t e n t ti n

f l ed, Sin ent i egi nal in tit ti n t atw ld a e t e t nd ly fall nde Beijing

way, in a t by eventing t e f balan ingt ei e n i de enden e n C ina wit i ila ly dee t ade and inve t ent elati n wit t e

aj e n ie Wa ingt n a a elling

inte e t in a ti i ating in A ian egi nalin tit ti n , inte nati nalizing t e t eventt e n t ti n f any kind f G eate C ine eC -P e ity S e e S a devel ent w

i k di ini ing We te n a e t i tanta ket and ake it a de f t e United State te ain a g a ant f egi nal tability

P e ident Oba a ld einf e t e U S intein en egi nali by itting t e UnitedState t ena t ent f t e T an -Pa ifi Pa tne(a f a ew k f t ade libe alizati n wit in APE

n t e ad t wa d an APEC-wide f ee t ade a eT e ev lving t an atlanti a ket la e betweenE e and N t A e i a w ld be i edin t e Pa ifi P e ident Oba a ld al attendf t e eeting f t e Ea t A ia S it, w i int e a t ave ex l ded t e United State , n w t a

i ad ini t ati n a lea ed t e ain eddle t d ing by ledging t atify t e

A iati n f S t ea t A ian Nati n T eaty A ity and C e ati n

Non-Sinocentric Asia policy true to thevalues of the West

T e B ad ini t ati n ed w at t e A i tant Se eta y f State f Ea t A ia, KCa bell, all an allie -fi t A ia t ategy

ne g nded in t e l gi t at t e be t way tanage C ina i e i t enj y t ng elati n

wit C ina neig b T t i end, t e eviad ini t ati n f ged a t ategi b eakt gwit India, a ele ated t e Clint n ad ini t ati neff t t t an f t e U S -Ja an allian e, and

t engt ened elati n wit key S t ea t A ianwe like Ind ne ia, Vietna , and Singa e

A ian tate t day a e n e ned t at t e Oba aad ini t ati n, f ed le n t e A ian balan

we t an n e ing Beijing t n gli e like li ate ange, ay d ift in t e di e t

f a ta it G nd ini wit C ina S ana a w ld elegate Wa ingt n e ain wide A ia t e nda y tat

President Obamacould send the

right message to Americas Asian

partners by pledging to push

the U.S. Congressto ratify the stalled

Korea-U.S. FreeTrade Agreement

immediately.


20/27


19

T ff et t e e egi nal w ie , P e ident Oba ald eite ate t e Ca bell D t ine t at t eUnited State ake a q alitative di tin ti nbetween it nat al allie in A ia and nt ie likeC inaand t at t e be t way t enj y n t tive

elati n wit t e latte i t enj y t e l e tible elati n wit t e f e Rat e t an

d wn laying A e i an e e t f individ alf eed and liti al libe ty in A ia, t i a aal all n t e P e identand, eq ally, leade inE e at t ei it wit C ina, ASEAN, and

t e A ian we t be t e t t ei nvi ti n

t at de a ie ake t e be t allie , and t at t eex an i n f an ig t and le f law in A iai a e f e ity and tability f all nt ieT i i t e n t nly f We te n and A iande a ie b t f C ina t

A policy framework to manage cooperation,and differences, with China

W ile E ean and A ian nt ie fea a U S -C ine e nd ini in A ia, t ey al fea t ede tabilizing effe t f a i anaged U S -C ina

elati n i P e ident B ea ned k d inA ia f anaging a table and d tive e i din U S -C ina elati n and did even a e

t engt ened Wa ingt n elati n i wit eve y t e aj A ian we , de n t ating t at t i

need n t be a ze - ga e In fa t, n t tiveU S -C ina elati n einf e d tive U S

elati n wit t e A ian a tne

T an atlanti leade t ex and t e f a ew k f e ati n wit C ina w ile edging again ta e tive C ine e be avi t at nde t We te ninte e t One a a w ld be f Wa ingt nand B el t ell t delive able t at t ey ex e t t fl w f a f a ew k T e ein l de e ifi C ine e initiative t at d etangible e lt n li ate ange, N t K ea,inte nati nal aid t an a en y, liti al ande n i libe alizati n in B a, t e nde -

val ati n f C ina en y a a atte f tateli y, and t e a d bje t T e idea ldbe t te t C ina willingne t be a g d gl bal

itizen t at nt ib te t t e bli g dnde gi ding t e inte nati nal y te It w ldean t indi ate t Beijing t at t e day f f ee-iding n We te n leade i , and banking n

We te n di nity w en it e t elati n witBeijing, a e ve

Rededication to sustainingWestern preeminence

A ian leade eti e ee e a tely awa et an A e i an and E ean nte a t w att e eq i e ent a e f t e t an atlanti allie t

tain We te n leade i f t e inte nati naly te Winning t e wa t ey e t fig t ine f t e T i be a e lea w end ing

t e I aq Wa leade like Lee K an Yew we et ken ab t t e need f t e United State tevail He n ted t e wide y te i i li ati n

f an A e i an ilita y defeat in t e MiddleEa t T day, a i ila , if q iet, debate ve t ef t e f We te n t ategy in Afg ani tan i taking

la e in A ia In t i ntext, a nfli t in t a l alized n e n b t a b ade t ategi

a ifi ati n f t e iti n f t e We t in t ee e ging w ld de

A ian nati n like Ja an and S t K ea,w e e ity de end n t e United State ,

ann t be indiffe ent t t e e t t at t eie ity vide w ld e t l e t e wa

in Afg ani tan State like India ann t b t bedi aged if t ei newf nd A e i an a tnede n t ate t at it la k t e t a f a fig tagain t a weak and defeatable adve a y like t eTaliban State like C ina want t a ele ate t ediff i n f we in t e inte nati nal y teaway f t e United State and E e T ey a ewat ing a NATO f e bleed in Afg ani tanin t e ab en e f t e t ategy and e e

Rather thandownplaying

American respectfor individualfreedom andpolitical liberty in Asia, thisapproach alsocalls on thePresidentand,equally, leadersin Europe at their

summits withChina, ASEAN,and other Asianpowersto betrue to their convictions thatdemocraciesmake the bestallies, and thatthe expansionof human rightsand rule of law in

Asia is a sourceof security and

stability for allcountries.


21/27


ne e a y t d e vi t y A ide f t egent i ity f aying d wn debilitatingnati nal debt t at t eaten, if n e ked, t

n t ain We te n we ve t e l ng te , nef t e be t t ing A e i an and E ean leade

ld d t i a t t e We t la e in t e f t egl bal balan e f we w ld be t e it twinning t e wa in t e Hind K

A concerted transatlantic approachto the region

W en t inking f t e linkage between itallian e in E e and it inte e t in A ia, t eUnited State till tend t a ai e E e a a

tential a tne ba ed n it le in t e egi nby w i ea e E e will ften fall t3 B t anaging C ina i e i a gl bal i e ative,n t i ly a egi nal ne T i in l de dealingwit C ina in gl bal in tit ti n and f a ew klike t e D a nd f inte nati nal t adetalk , li ate ange neg tiati n , t e G f Twenty, t e United Nati n Se ity C n il, andg ing like t e P5+ n I an It al in l dedealing wit C ina in egi nal ntext bey ndA ia, in l ding wit ega d t n e n ve

an ig t , t ade and inve t ent li ie , andf eign a i tan e in Af i a and Latin A e i a,w e e E e ntin e t wield l t

T , at b t t e gl bal level and in egi nt ide A ia, t e e i lea ly e f t e United

State and it E ean a tne t llab atee y te ati ally vis--vis C ina T e

ve a ing t ategi allenge i t defend t elibe al inte nati nal de ; C ina i t e leading

tential allenge t t at de and E eld be A e i a nat al a tne in lding

it B ilding aliti n f like- inded, a able

3 I a g atef l t And ew S all f i de i ive nt ib ti n tt i e ti n

a tne t at an t e Atlanti and Pa ifi ealwill be ne e a y t anage t e allenge T iall f a gl bal t ategy f aliti n-b ilding

a ng libe al we t at ve bey nd t ebif ated egi nal a a e f t e C ld Waand it afte at

Dealing wit a C ina e e ging a a gl balilita y we ake it all t e e i e ative

t at t e United State bette integ ate it allian et t e in A ia and E e U S willingn

t integ ate E e int it t ategi a a

A ian we if n t A ian egi nal li ywbe ial t it a a ity t axi ize it leve aand en e t at t e We t i n t f a t ed indealing wit an in ea ingly a e tive C ina Ta a al a iti al i li ati n f t

ef f t e in tit ti n f gl bal g ve nan eInteg ating A ian we i i tant, b t eff t t exi t wit a libe al aliti n-b ilding t ategy t at en e t at t e We t

n e it f ll weig t, and f ge l ea tne i wit like- inded A ian we , in

t e e f

F it a t, E e need a le Sin ent i Ali y It li ie ld be bette att ned t t e

advantage gained f dinating e effe tivwit t e aj A ian we n i e elatedC ina, and t e leve age t at e f t e a a it infl en e devel ent al ng C ina e i e yT i in l de l e elati n n t nly wit g ea

we like Ja an and India and e e ging welike S t K ea and Ind ne ia, b t al wit

ietie like Taiwan E e a a elling take in te ting t e ig t f Taiwane e itizen

e t ei wn f t e f ee f ainland eE e t al e i t t e elf-defeating etve C ina li y a ng t e big t ee we f

G eat B itain, Ge any, and F an e On i e fTibet, an ig t , and t ade, t i etiti n aall wed t e C ine e t lay E ean tate again

The overarching strategic

challenge is todefend the liberal

internationalorder; China is the

leading potentialchallenger to

that order andEurope should

be Americasnatural partner in

upholding it.


22/27


21

ea t e t t e det i ent f ea f t e and t eE ean Uni n a a w le33

A key t ategi q e ti n i w et e E e want tengage in A ia bey nd t ade and be e A e i af ll- e t a tne in t e egi n T e debate inE ean a ital ve lifting t e EU a e ba g

n C ina, wit nent ing na we ial inte e t t t e det i ent f t ategi

tability in Ea t A ia, gge t lea li it tE e ability t be a e n ible take lde int e egi n It ay be t at E e will t b tly

engage wit C ina nly w en Beijing allengeit (li ited) gl bal a biti n n i e like li ateange B t b t t e United State and E ean

nt ie wit i t i al t aditi n f weje ti n in Ea t A ia ld ai ig e t an

t at One ibility w ld be a new t an atlantia t t at e ient t e Atlanti allie away f

na w e ity n e n in E e and t wa db ade gl bal allenge t t e We t iti n

te ing f C ina a t ita ian i e

NATO a been e ating be ind t e ve nA ia, in t e ini n f key Atlanti i t T i i

a tly a f n ti n f an ng ing debate ittingnent f a na w NATO andate t at

ivilege t an atlanti ex l ivi again tadv ate f a e ex an ive, gl bal le f t eallian e In t i latte vi i n, NATO w ld e ve at e b f a e ie f gl bal e ity a tne i ,in l ding wit i ing, de ati A ian we a

iti n end ed by Wa ingt n enta ba ad t NATO, a ng t e 34 T ede l y ent f NATO f e in Afg ani tan, and

33

J n F x and F an i G de nt, A Power Audit of EU-China Relations (L nd n, U K : E ean C n il n F eignRelati n , 9), tt ://e f 3 dn net/53 d9 d b5 9699ad_

z 6b9bz4 df 34 Iv Daalde and Ja e G ldgeie , Gl bal NATO,Foreign Affairs 85, N 5 (Se t /O t 6), 5- 3

t ei li ited e in te ing t e Talibanin gen y, efle t t e b ade ten i n betweenNATO e and t- f-a ea i i n w i iw y NATO e fail e in Afg ani tan will

ave wide i li ati n f NATO f t e le inEa t A ia

At t e N ve be 6 NATO S it inRiga, t e United State e ed t e allian eag ee ent t en an e ilita y inte e ability and j int lanning wit Ja an, A t alia, S tK ea, and New Zealand35 T i wa a t f a

la ge U S de ign t en age A ian a tnet a e gl bal e ity e n ibilitie ade ati e ity vide and t f alize

ltilate al e ity e ati n a ng a tnebining a ed val e wit ignifi ant

ilita y a abilitie 36

In t e n- t Riga, U S ffi ial ad edt ei E ean nte a t t integ ate t ef A ian de a ie e f lly int allian e

lanning, t aining, and e ati n in an eff t ttie NATO int a l e e ity a tne i wit

ilita ily a able and like- inded A ian tateT i a aign fa ed e i tan e f F an e andGe any in a ti la , w g t t e e veNATO e ex l ive Atlanti identity NATOnew St ategi C n e t ld nd anex an i na y vi i n f t e allian e engage entwit A ia leading de a ie Afte all, it iA ia a ent at e t an t e E ean e ity dile a f ye te yea t at e ent t e iti al

allenge t t e gl bal e ity de t at NATOa been in t ental in lding f 6 yea

35 J dy De ey, Ja ane e Signal New E a in Tie wit NATO,International Herald Tribune, Jan , 736 Inte view wit K t V lke , P in i al De ty A i tantSe eta y f State f E ean Affai , Wa ingt n, Feb 7

NATOs new 2010Strategic Concept

should propoundan expansionary vision for thealliancesengagement with

Asias leading democracies;after all, it is Asiasascent rather thanthe European

security dilemmasof yesteryear that present thecritical challengesto the global

security order thatNATO has beeninstrumental inupholding for 60

years.


23/27


There may beclear limits to

Asian integration so long as China

seeks to constructan external order

that reflectsnot horizontal

relations of sovereign equality

groundedin norms of democratic

legitimacy, butvertical, hierarchicexternal relations

of power andprestige grounded

in Chinas owndomestic regime

type.

Given t e dee in tit ti nalizati n f t an atlantielati n t g NATO and f int a-E eanaffai wit in t e E ean Uni n, t e Atlantiallie al ave a elling inte e t in

t engt ening an- egi nal A ian in tit ti nT i i ne a t f a t ategi a a t A ian

egi nali t at w k wit a tne bilate ally and wit in inilate al and ltilate al f in de t et ig tanda d f t an a en y,in l ivene , ea ef l e ati n, and t e

vi i n f egi nal bli g d U S leade iand C ina f t e t aje t y a e t e key va iable

in ealizing t i vi i n A J n Ikenbe y a g e ,T e allenge [f ] t e United State i n t tbl k C ina ent y int t e egi nal de b t t

el a e it te 37 At t e a e ti e, E edel f egi nal integ ati n i an i tant

l de ta f A ia wn a biti n t e egi nalnity-b ilding

Libe al in tit ti nali t e tly edit egi nalin tit ti n wit a ing C ina be avi ,

ializing Beijing ab t egi nal n andel ing C ina edefine it wn inte e t t g

in tit ti nal in entive f e ati n T e i t y f twa E ean integ ati n i indeed an

a i ati nal del f A ia B t in tit ti nali tw d aw n l i n ba ed n t e E eanex e ien e f A ia nde tate t e le f egi ety e in in tit ti nal binding Ikenbe y, fin tan e, aintain t at C ina an f ll w in t ef t te f t e United Statevis--vis We te nE e f 949 and f Ge any vis--vis t e

e t f E e f 99 He ite b t t e U Sde i i n t bind it elf t We te n E e t g

egi nal in tit ti n like NATO afte W ld Wa II

37 G J n Ikenbe y, A ian Regi nali and t e F t e f U S St ategi Engage ent wit C ina, in Ab a a Den a k and Ni av Patel, ed ,Chinas Arrival: A Strategic Framework for a Global Relationship (Wa ingt n, DC: Cente f aNew A e i an Se ity, 9), tt ://www na g/file /d ent / bli ati n /CNAS% C ina% 7 % A ival_Final% Re t df

Does European Integration

Offer a Model for Asia?7and newly nified Ge any ve in 99 t bindit elf t E ean in tit ti n a way in w id inant tate e l yed in tit ti nal t ategie t

ignal ea an e, e t aint, and edi tabilityweake a tne , t e eby ve ing t aditi na

elf- el e e f le e nati n t balanagain t t e ege n in t ei id t38

B t a g ent ve l k t e key va iablef egi e ty e a a ne e a y nditi n f

in tit ti nal binding t w k In b t i t i ala e , We te n nati n t at a ed a n

it ent t e e entative g ve n ent and lf law n t ted e ity nitie g nin n nde tanding f a de ati ea eIndeed, a Ikenbe y a a g ed el ew e e,

e ity nitie a e e entially exte nalize ve i n f t e n tit ti nal de t at evwit in libe al de a ie39 In t i analy i ,C ina a t ita ian egi e ty e e ent

n ide able allenge t it ability t ignale t aint and ea an e and e t ategie

a ed e ity wit wa y de ati neig bT e e ay be lea li it t A ian integ ati n

l ng a C ina eek t n t t an exte nal t at efle t n t iz ntal elati n f ve eieq ality g nded in n f de atilegiti a y, b t ve ti al, ie a i exte nal ela

f we and e tige g nded in C ina wnd e ti egi e ty e

Wit ega d t t e U S ex e ien e in twaE e and a nified Ge any E eaninteg ati n f ll wing t e C ld Wa , eali t w lal di te t e libe al edi ti n t at C ina

ld f ll w a at f ea ef l A ian integ ati n

In j dging t e C ld Wa elati n i a ng t e

38 Ibid39 G J n Ikenbe y, After Victory: Institutions, StrategicRestraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars(P in et n, NJ: P in et n Unive ity P e , ) T i aal f ll w P ili B bbitt,The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace,and the Course of History (L nd n, U K : Peng in, 3)


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23

Nor can Chinapursue Germanysinstitutionalpathway in theEuropean Unionbecause thecontinuing U.S.

security guaranteethat convinced

skepticalneighbors likeBritain andFrance to consentto Germanunification, andthe Americancommitment toGerman security that rendersunnecessary Germanysdevelopment of offensive military capabilities, arenot ones thatChina is in aposition to make.

Atlanti allie , eali t w ld inv ke ege niwe elati n between a U S e we and itE ean de enden ie in t e fa e f a nand ge g a i ally xi ate adve a y in t ef f t e S viet Uni n Wit ega d t Ge an

nifi ati n, t ey w ld ite t e ntin ing U Se ity g a antee t it E ean allie , and anng ing U S ilita y e en e in Ge any t at

event b t t at nt y and it neig b fing de tabilizing e ity li ie f elf- el ,

a e f ea an e t at a age n e nab t Ge an evan i n t e ntinent

Ba ed n t e eali t nde tanding, C ina ann tlay t e le f t e United State in E e afte

W ld Wa II by ffe ing e ity g a antee tit neig b a a benign ege n and leade f a de ati e ity nity Any C ine e

ege ny in A ia w ld be nte ted at et an wel ed by it neig b It w ld n t be

e eived t be benign (f ea n f i t y andbe a e A e i an leade i i n t e eived by

t e A ian tate a a t eat t ey wi C ina tnte vail) And C ina n n-de ati egi e

ty e give i e t a dange la k f t an a en y ab t b t it intenti n and a abilitie , akingC ina a a e f t eat a f ea an et t e A ian tate

N an C ina e Ge any in tit ti nalat way in t e E ean Uni nbe a e t e

ntin ing U S e ity g a antee t at nvin edke ti al neig b like B itain and F an e t

n ent t Ge an nifi ati n, and t e A e i anit ent t Ge an e ity t at ende

nne e a y Ge any devel ent f ffen ive

ilita y a abilitie , a e n t ne t at C ina iin a iti n t ake T d it w ld ave tb t li it t e devel ent f it wn nati nal

a abilitie and it t t e e ity f neig bt at identify C ina a t ei i a y t eatI ni ally, it i t eU.S. it ent t t e e ity

f it A ian allie , a ti la ly Ja an, t at aenabled C ina t e it ntin ing ilita y b ild wit t ing t e f ll- ale a a ingand nte balan ing eali t t e ie edi t w ld

t e wi e

F t e e ea n , t e na ent devel ent f ab- egi nal e ity nity a ng A ia-Pa ifi de a ie led by t e United Stateand feat ing b t bilate al and ltilate al

nent i i tant t a ing a egi nalde t at et tanda d f C ina t eet in

it q e t f egi nal leade i A ia i n t i ef t e kind f dee egi nali evalent inE e B t any eff t t wa d devel ing anEa t A ian C nity will be t engt ened by in tit ti nalized abit f e ati n a ng A ian

we Be a e t e A ian tate fea falling

int C ina ad w, t ei engage ent wit eat e and t e United State t g de atiinilate ali give t e t e nfiden e t

engage C ina It al a e a t ategi ntextt at en age C ina wn ea ef l i eby dete ing C ine e advent i ab ad and

etting ig tanda d f egi nal e ati nand t an a en y in way t at infl en e C inainte nal debate ve it f eign li y bje tiveDe ati ltilate ali in t e A ia-Pa ifit e eby nt ib te t t e devel ent f a b ade

an-A ian egi nali


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The material success of

authoritarianChina has led to

premature anxiety that economicmodernization

there will notproduce a

middle classthat demands

democratic rights,as occurred in the

West. We haveheard similar

sentimentsbefore, when

Asian strongmen,Asian values,

and bureaucraticcapitalism

were perceivedas providing

developmentmodels superior

to free-marketdemocracy.

In We te n E e afte W ld Wa II, t eUnited State and it libe al allie n t ted altilate al e ity egi e ba ed n a f ndati n

f a ed de ati val e t at f t en lidated w en nt ie like S ain, P t gal,

and T key e b a ed e e entative litiBy nt a t, t ide f Ja an, a f ndati ndid n t exi t in A ia d ing t e C ld Wa T e

it ati n ld n t be e diffe ent t day, a t eWe t in i al a tne Ja an, S t K ea,A t alia, and Indiaa e vib ant de a ieP e t f a t ng f t e a tne i between

t e We t and Ind ne ia a e b ig t a a e lt f t at nt y de ati n lidati n and itleade belief, a ed by t an atlanti nent

f t e de ati ea e, t at de a ie a enat al allie 4 W e ea t e United State C ldWa A ia li y wa e i ed n a tne iwit egi nal t ng en at t e a e ti e a

t t al fa t ed A e i a and de atiIndia a a t, t day de a yand nve ging

i k a e ent ab t t e da k ide f C inai ein ea ingly nite t e United State and

E e wit India, S t K ea, Ind ne ia, t eP ili ine , Taiwan, Ja an, A t alia, and t e

tate in way t at nat ally ld te bettedinati n a ng t t e

T e ate ial e f a t ita ian C inaa led t e at e anxiety t at e n i

de nizati n t e e will n t d e a iddlela t at de and de ati ig t , a ed

in t e We t We ave ea d i ila enti entbef e, w en A ian t ng en, A ian val e ,and b ea ati a itali we e e eived a

viding devel ent del e i t f ee-

a ket de a y De atizati n f t e A ian

4 Hilla y Clint n, Devel ing a C e en ive Pa tne iwit Ind ne ia, Jaka ta, Feb 8, 9, tt ://www tateg v/ e eta y/ / 9a/ / 94 4 t ; S il Ba bangY d y n , Ind ne ia and A e i a in a C anging W ld,in Y d y n ,Transforming Indonesia: Selected International Speeches(Jaka ta, Ind ne ia: Offi e f t e P e ident, 5)

Freedom in Asia8tige , t e b ting f Ja an e n i b bbleand de ati India e f l e n itake ff ave de n t ated w w ng a e ent we e F eed a fi t inA ia: S n Yat- en de la ed t e fi t C ine e

e bli in 9 , and in e 947 t e idea f India a been de a y W en A ian t k t t e t eet t de and de ati ig t inS t K ea ( 98 ), t e P ili ine ( 986),Taiwan ( 986), B a ( 988), C ina ( 989),T ailand ( 99 ), Ind ne ia ( 998), H ng K ng( 3- 9), and Paki tan ( 7), t ey we e n

tanding f We te n lt al val e b t fnive al a i ati n f ankind And a a en

Ja ane e di l at t it, C ina will lti ately ave n i e b t t e b a e de a y be a

eve y t e liti al y te in an i t y been t iedand a failed4

De a y i t e We t g eate t e f we , in A ia and t e w ld M de nity t day

defined by de ati a itali and a lt ef t nity M t e le in t la e wa

t e li ate e f f it, if n t it We te n

lt al by d t , in t ei wn nt ie in S t ea t A ia, n e t e ba ti n f A ian val e , a l t a anged D ing t e debate

ve t e new A iati n f S t ea t A ianNati n (ASEAN) C a te , S t ea t A ian

ffi ial n ide ed a d aft w itten by egi naleni tate en and t g t leade It de la

t at egi nal ea e and tability e t n t ea tive t engt ening f de ati val e , gg ve nan e, eje ti n f n n tit ti nal and

nde ati ange f g ve n ent, t e lef law, in l ding inte nati nal anita ian law,

and e e t f an ig t and f nda entalf eed 4 W ile t e final a te wa wate e

4 Inte view wit N b kat Kane a a, Di e t , F eign PDivi i n, Mini t y f F eign Affai , T ky , A il 74 Cited in Ca l C nde, S t ea t A ian Ag ee t D aft NC a te ,The New York Times, Jan 3, 7


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25

To the extentthat Asian

governments andcitizens continueto embraceuniversal values,

shared ideals of human liberty willbe an enduring

source of security and prosperity connecting

Asia and thetransatlanticcommunity. Areformist Chinamay one day jointhis global club of open societies.

d wn t efle t ntin ing n e n ab t n n-inte fe en e by t e egi n n n-de ati tate ,t ey a ea ed t be wi ing again t t e tideIt likely will ntin e t fl w in t e di e ti n f a

e b t e b a e f libe al n by ASEANleading e be

In C ina, an a tive bli debate ve de a y wa well nde way in t e 98 In 989, la

te t e ted in eve y aj ity in C inaand, in t e view f any ex e t , w ld aveb g t d wn t e egi e ad t e ve ent n t

been n ffed t by t e Tianan en a a eand b eq ently dive ted by t e tate-ledbilizati n f xen bi nati nali B t t e

e f de a y in Taiwan, ve w el ingla t in H ng K ng f g eate

de ati f eed , t e C a te 8 de a y ve ent in t e Pe le Re bli , and t eee ing debate wit in C ina ling a ty ab tw t in tit ti nalize t e a ty d inan e

t g t e t a ing f anaged de a y allatte t t t e we f libe ali a eal

T e val e f de ati de nity t w ie le a A ia a i e f nd t ei ea lie t

and t end ing ex e i n in t e We t Tt e extent t at A ian g ve n ent and itizen

ntin e t e b a e nive al val e , a edideal f an libe ty will be an end ing e

f e ity and e ity nne ting A ia and t et an atlanti nity A ef i t C ina ay

ne day j in t i gl bal l b f en ietie

And if it d e n t, a aliti n f a able andlike- inded a tne anning N t A e i a,E e, and A ia ld be well- iti nedt anage t e exte nal anife tati n f ita t ita ian we ntil it ell w int a f

e e n ive t it e le a i ati n , andt t e eq i e ent f inte nati nal e ati nt anage t e f nd allenge t gl balg ve nan e t at nf nt t e t- ent y w ld


27/27

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