are your polls effective? yes, no, maybe st. louis, missouri june 22, 2011 richard bernard, ph.d....
TRANSCRIPT
Are Your Polls Effective?Yes, No, Maybe
St. Louis, Missouri
June 22, 2011
Richard Bernard, Ph.D.
Transit Initiatives and Communities Conference
Understanding The Keys To Successful Transit Ballot Measure Campaigns
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Outline
I. Why Poll and Different Types of Polls
II. Ingredients in an Effective Poll
III. Polls Can be Effective/May Not be Effective
IV.Polls Can Effectively be Used Even after the Campaign Road Map has been Developed
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I. Why Poll and Different Types of Polls
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• Find out where the race currently stands
• Determine whether moving forward is a viable reality
• Invest a little to potentially save a lot
• Figure out a strategy to win – Road Map or Planning Tool
Messaging – How do you sell your initiative?
Targeting – Which demographic/geographic groups do you target and with what messages?
Why Poll?
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Benchmark(Baseline)• In-depth survey (15-25 minutes)
•Provides strategic plan for campaign
Refinement•Moderate length (10-15 minutes)
•Develops or tests ballot measure title and summary
Pulse•Moderate length (10-15 minutes)
•Re-assesses where the measure stands among electorate
•Asks additional information and tests new potential messaging for public outreach/campaign
Different Types of Polls
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Track
•Short, basic survey (5-10 minutes)
•Tracks where the measure stands among the electorate
•Measures impact of paid and free media
Post-Election Survey
•Somewhat in-depth survey (15-20 minutes)
•Examines recall of recent measure and level of support
•Aids in the prioritizing of transportation projects and services
•Helps brand measure in relation to transportation agency
Different Types of Polls – Each has a Different Roll (continued)
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II. Ingredients in an Effective Poll• Sample Represents Likely Voter Turnout• Reasonable Sample Size• Good Background Research
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• Sample: A randomly selected list that represents your universe
Ideally drawn from a list of registered voters, but often drawn from a Random-Digit Dial (RDD) sample of individuals who report that they are 18+ and registered to vote
Includes landline, cell phone numbers and voter data
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services report that as of June 2010, 23.9% of adults were living in wireless-only households (with lowest rates in Rhode Island and New Jersey 12.8% and highest rates in Arkansas 35.2%)
Sample Represents Likely Voter Turnout
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• Representative of Likely Voter Turnout
Likely turnout is based on historical data and individual vote history
Poll is likely to be more inclusive than exclusive
Various turnout scenarios can be analyzed with data
Voter turnout tends to skew towards older and whiter, population skews towards younger and more ethnically diverse individuals
The Right Sample (Continued)
U.S. General Election Turnout Percentages
U.S. General Election Turnout of Voting-Age Population
2008 56.8%2006 37.1%2004 55.3%2002 37.0%2000 51.3%
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html
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The margin of error is derived from a mathematical process which gives you a range within which responses are accurate. It is the degree of confidence that you can apply to the results of the interviewing.
For example, on a national survey of 1,000 respondents at least 18 years old, the researcher can project the results of a survey to the entire universe of Americans ages 18 years and older, within + 3.1% in 95 out of 100 cases. This means that if you were to replicate the survey at the same point in time, the results would be within three percentage points of your results (in 95 out of 100 cases).
Reasonable Sample Size – Margin of Error Matters
Sample Size M.O.E.
50 13.86
100 9.8
150 8
200 6.93
250 6.2
300 5.66
350 5.24
400 4.9
450 4.6
500 4.38
600 4
700 3.7
800 3.46
900 3.27
1000 3.1
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• What do you want the money for?
projects and/or services
enhancements/maintenance/restoration
• How much money is needed?
best and worst case scenarios
• What does the pollster need to know about the area
historically, demographically, geographically, political, etc.
Good Background Research
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•Who is likely to support the measure?
How well funded are the supporters
• Who is likely to oppose the measure?
How well funded is the opposition and what are they likely to say.
Garbage in, garbage out – a poll can only be as good as the research that goes into it
Good Background Research (Continued)
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III. Polls Can be Effective/May Not be Effective
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Examining awareness, concerns and attitudes at a cross-section in time and place
Helping frame wording, messaging and ballot titles and summary language
Assessing voters’ threshold for the amount they are willing to pay
Identifying on which projects/services voters are willing to fund
Highlighting potential roadblocks and dismissing non-threatening concerns
Identifying support, opposition and persuadable voters
Learning what to say to who
Distinguishing credible messengers and sources of information
Polls Can be Effective at
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Guiding communication decisions and how to best spend dollars efficiently and effectively to build a successful effort
Convincing elected officials and/or key decision makers to side or oppose an initiative (or at least stay out of the discussion)
Building coalition
Raising funds
Generating free media
Measuring the effectiveness of public outreach/campaign over time through multiple surveys
Polls Can be Effective at (Continued)
Public Opinion Strategy: Future of Transportation National Survey – March 2010
Transportation Statements
Framing the Right Question is Critical.
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“The United States Would Benefit From an Expanded and Improved Public Transportation System, Such as Rail and Buses”
Public Opinion Strategy: Future of Transportation National Survey – March 2010
Transportation Statements
Framing the Right Question is Critical.(Continued)
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“My Community Would Benefit From an Expanded and Improved Public Transportation System, Such as Rail and Buses”
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The Right Ballot Title and Summary is Critical for the Success of a Measure
Cathedral City Measure Q (Riverside County) Shall a 0.75% tax be imposed on transactions
and uses in the city, with the revenue to be used for general municipal purposes?
Final Vote: November 2006
No66.51%
Yes33.49%
Measure H: Fiscal Emergency Measure -- City of Cathedral City (Riverside County)
To offset the impact of severe state budget cuts on essential services; address Cathedral City's Fiscal Emergency; prevent drastic cuts to police officers,
firefighters, paramedics and ambulance response, 9-1-1 emergency dispatch, safety equipment for police officers
and firefighters, anti-gang/anti-drug programs; and preserve other general City services, shall Cathedral
City adopt a one cent transactions (sales) and use tax, expiring in five years, requiring citizens' finance advisory
committee review and annual financial audits?
No42.61%
Yes57.39%
Final Vote: June 2010
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Polls Help Identifythe Best Wording
50%
38%
41%
38% 21%
9%
3%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Ext. Impt. Very Impt. S.W./Not Impt. DK/NA
(Ranked by % Extremely Important)
12. I am going to read you a list of some ways that funds raised by THE LOCAL 9-1-1 FIREFIGHTER/PARAMEDIC EMERGENCY MEDICAL RESPONSE MEASURE may be used in your community. Please tell me how important it is to you that each feature be included: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important. ^Not Part of Split Sample
% Total Ext./Very Important Difference
+16%
“Preventing an increase in 911 emergency response times”
“Maintaining fast 911 emergency response times”
VS.
Public Opinion Strategy: Future of Transportation National Survey – March 2010
In general, would you support or oppose increasing funding to expand and improve public transportation in your community, if it required a small increase in taxes or fees?
Support for Small Tax/Fee for Public Transportation, by Party
Polls Identify Supporters and Opponents
(31%) (30%) (35%) (22%)
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Polls Help DetermineWhat to Say to Who
4.2
4.84.6
4.54.14.1
40.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Los Angeles County
West Los Angeles CountyCentral Los Angeles Area
Southeast Los Angeles CountySouth Bay
San Fernando ValleySan Gabriel Valley
“Expanding the existing subway system”
(Scale 1 to 7: 1=Not At All Willing to vote to pay for the use and 7=You are Very Willing to vote to pay for the use)
I am now going to read you a list of ways money from the transportation ballot measure could be used. Regardless of your opinion of the measure, after I mention each one, please tell me how willing you would be personally to pay for that proposed item through a: A “sales tax increase”/“parcel tax increase” to relieve traffic congestion and improve road safety in Los Angeles County
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Polls Help Identify Potential Roadblocks -Message Order in a Contested Election
Could be Critical
58%
67%
59%
32%27%
34%
10%6% 7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%Support Oppose Undecided
Support 58% 67% 59%
Oppose 32% 27% 34%
Undecided 10% 6% 7%
Initial VoteVote after
Supportive Statements
Vote after Opposiiton Statements
58%
47%54%
32%
44%39%
10% 9% 7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%Support Oppose Undecided
Support 58% 47% 54%
Oppose 32% 44% 39%
Undecided 10% 9% 7%
Initial VoteVote after Opposition Statements
Vote after Supportive Statements
Supportive Statements First Opposition Statements First
(All Voters)
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Simulating in a “perfect world” how a potential educational outreach program and/or funding initiative campaign may play out (i.e. predicting the unexpected)
Convincing a politician who has competing agendas
Predicting voter response to unclear or complicated ballot language
Polls May Not be Effective at
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Predicting the early impact of a “stacked ballot”
Anticipating what the opposition will actually do
Pre-testing the effectiveness of the delivery of messages through TV ads or mail
Polls May Not be Effective (Continued)
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26%31%
18%12% 12%
57%60% 62%
22%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Total Yes Total No DK/NA
Total Yes 60% 62% 57%
Total No 22% 26% 31%
DK/NA 18% 12% 12%
Initial VoteVote After Description of Features and Supportive
Arguments
Vote after Oppositional Arguments
Polls Can’t Always Predicted Unexpected Future Events
Progression- $720 Million Bond
9/17/19. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this bond measure?
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Opposition Out Spent and Out Messaged Supporters of the Measure
STOPTHEMONEY GRAB!www.StopTheMoneyGrab.com
Important News Regarding Measure "G"
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Final Vote and Survey Results: Measure G:
Mt. San Jacinto Community College District
No45.91%
Yes45.09%
Survey Results: January 2006
Undecided12% No
31%
Yes57%
Final Vote:June 6, 2006
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Most Surveys Focus on a Isolated Measure – Ignoring Positioning on the Ballot and Competing and Overlapping Measure
Priorities e.g. 2008 City of Los Angeles(Survey Conducted in October 2008)
59%
53%
67%
64%
65%
66% 18%
28%
24%
19%
19%
23%
16%
12%
17%
14%
19%
17%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Yes No Undecided
Proposition 1: $9.9 Billion Statewide High Speed Train Bond Measure
Proposition 10: $5 Billion Statewide Alternative Fuel Clean Energy Bond Measure
Measure R: ½-cent County Transportation Sales Tax
Measure J: $3.5 Billion Community College Bond
Measure Q: $7 Billion Los Angeles Unified School District Bond (29 cities and unincorporated areas)
Proposition A: Los Angeles City $36 Annual Parcel Tax Gang and Youth Violence Prevention Measure
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City of Los Angeles Special Gang and Youth Violence Prevention, After-School and Job
Training Programs Tax Final Vote and Survey Results One Month Before
No33.73%
Yes66.27%
Survey Results: October 2008
Undecided
16%No
18%
Yes66%
Final Vote:November 2008
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IV.Polls Can Effectively be Used Even after the Campaign Road Map has been Developed
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Polling data can help shape on-going strategy
Can influence communication materials
Materials can be tested through an Internet survey, focus groups or through dial groups
Polls Can Effectively be Used Even after the Campaign Road Map has been
Developed
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• The poll results should guide your strategic plan, but they have to be matched with reality: your budget, your organizational capacities and political developments.
• Remember that any poll is only a snapshot of opinion at one moment in time; conditions in the campaign are certain to evolve – and so will the numbers
Final Notes of Caution
For more information, contact:
2425 Colorado Ave., Suite 180 Santa Monica, CA 90404
Phone (310) 828-1183Fax (310) 453-6562