Are unemployment rates indicative of property crime rates?

Will states with the least amount of unemployment have less property crime?

Jeremy Aiello

Soc-240-01

11/21/2013

The property crime statistic is based on rate per 100,000 inhabitants.

Simple crime/unemployment hypothesis: Due to strain theory and otherVariables, those that are unemployed will cause more crime.

Literature Review• Aaltonen’s study examined whether the relationship between unemployment and

crime differed among different crimes. There were significant positive effects of unemployment and property crime. This increased as the unemployment becomes more chronic.

• Baron’s study examined unemployed youths and crime. He determined that external variables as a result of being unemployed lead to crime. For example, emotions such as anger, can lead to increases in crime rather than simply just being unemployed.

• Chamlin’s study used rational choice theory to see whether unemployment increased the likelihood of crime. The study concluded that long-term and permanent unemployment lead to higher levels of property crime.

• Young performed this study after several evaluations of other stuides. Most of the other studies showed inconsistent results between unemployment and property crime. He performed this study in twenty different nations with cross-sectional data. His study proved insignificant results as well which gives doubt to the simple unemployment-crime hypothesis.

• Cantor wanted to prove the simple hypothesis wrong as well. Overall, there was more of a negative relationship between crime unemployment. However, for property crimes, there was a significant positive component.

Works Cited AALTONEN, M., MACDONALD, J. M., MARTIKAINEN, P., & KIVIVUORI, J.

(2013). EXAMINING THE GENERALITY OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT-CRIME ASSOCIATION. Criminology, 51(3), 561-594.

Baron, S. W. (2008). Street Youth, Unemployment, and Crime: Is It That Simple? Using General Strain Theory to Untangle the Relationship. Canadian Journal Of Criminology & Criminal Justice, 50(4), 399-434.

Cantor, D., & Land, K. C. (1985). UNEMPLOYMENT AND CRIME RATES IN THE POST-WORLD WAR II UNITED STATES: A THEORETICAL AND

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS. American Sociological Review, 50(3), 317-332.

Chamlin, M. B., & Cochran, J. K. (2000). Unemployment, Economic Theory, and Property Crime: A Note on Measurement. Journal Of Quantitative Criminology, 16(4), 443.

Young, T. J. (1993). Unemployment and Property Crime: Not a Simple Relationship. American Journal Of Economics & Sociology, 52(4), 413-416

Data Sources Used Bureau of Labor Statistics:

http://www.bls.gov/lau/lastrk12.htm

The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides annual data on labor market activity, working conditions, and price changes in the economy. The data set the Bureau provided outlines the Unemployment rates for States in 2012. This data will be compared to violent crime rates in 2012 to see whether unemployment can be linked to violent crimes.

Uniform Crime Reports, Crime in the United States by State, 2012: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-

in-the-u.s.-2012/tables/5tabledatadecpdf

The Uniform Crime Reports is data set provided by the Federal Bureau of Statistics. It is a data set collected by the FBI twice each year. The data is voluntarily provided by virtually every police and Sherriff's department in the nation. The UCR has provided data on

violent crimes in 2012 in the United states.

Data Analysis1) “clean” up the data

2) Select a new box next to the current data

3) In the new box, type “=“ and click Alabama property crime rate and “/” (divide) it by Alabama Unemployment rate

4) Drag this new equation down through all 50 states(Higher the number, the “better” for graphing purposes)

5) Label this “New Equation”

6) Insert a Pivot Table with all data (select all)

7) Put “States” into Row

8) Put “New Equation” into Values

9) Select all and reduce decimal places all the way down. Exp. 453.21 453

10) Rearrange “New Equation” largest to smallest (it is now evident that Nebraska property crime compared to unemployed rate is the least)

◦ Nebraska is ranked 2nd for unemployment (least amount)

This is what it should look like.

Making Graphs1) Highlight all

2) Insert Bar Graph (This is the east way to see the difference between states)

3) Since there are 50 states, you must expand the graph to fit all of the data in the chart

1. Lets go back to the original data on the other sheet

2. Create a new pivot table

3. Put “Property crime” in Row labels

4. Rearrange this column from small-large (The top should be the state with the least property crime rate per 100,000 inhabitants)

5. Now, put “state” in the Row labels (Now can see which state that is[ND])

6. Now, put “unemployment rank” in the values ◦ Doing this will allow us to see if the states with the lowest property crime rate

are actually ranked the lowest in unemployment.◦ The reason I chose this way, was because the unemployment rank will show a clearer view of

the states with the least unemployment because the states are ranked 1-50

New Graphs

Analysis Continued

1)Select All2)Insert Line graph3)Expand Line Graph so all states

can be seen• If states with the least property

crime rate positively correlated with unemployment, the line graph should go from small-large

• It clearly does not

NO

RTH

DA

KO

TA

SO

UTH

DA

KO

TA

NEW

YO

RK

IDA

HO

NEW

JER

SEY

PEN

NSYLV

AN

IAN

EW

HA

MPSH

IRE

CO

NN

EC

TIC

UT

WEST V

IRG

INIA

IOW

AV

ER

MO

NT

VIR

GIN

IAM

ASSA

CH

USETTS

WYO

MIN

GM

AIN

EW

ISC

ON

SIN

MO

NTA

NA

KEN

TU

CK

YR

HO

DE ISLA

ND

MIN

NESO

TA

3C

ALI

FOR

NIA

NEB

RA

SK

AIL

LIN

OIS

2C

OLO

RA

DO

MIC

HIG

AN

NEV

AD

AA

LASK

AM

ISSIS

SIP

PI

MA

RYLA

ND

OR

EG

ON

2IN

DIA

NA

KA

NSA

SU

TA

HO

HIO

HA

WA

IIM

ISSO

UR

IO

KLA

HO

MA

NEW

MEX

ICO

NO

RTH

CA

RO

LIN

AD

ELA

WA

RE

ALA

BA

MA

AR

IZO

NA

FLO

RID

AA

RK

AN

SA

SG

EO

RG

IALO

UIS

IAN

ATEN

NESSEE

WA

SH

ING

TO

NTEX

AS

SO

UTH

CA

RO

LIN

A

1768.5

1852.4

1941.2

1995.8

2081.9

2173

2186.3

2193.2

2239.6

2242.5

2282.3

2327.2

2350.5

2461.6

2479.3

2507.7

2543.8

2551.3

2556.6

2572.3

2635.8

2673.2

2681

2684.2

2713.6

2774.7

2852.5

2985

2997.3

3012.9

3042.4

3119.9

3179.6

3245.2

3314.2

3346.4

3415.5

3435.4

3447.3

3448.2

3516.8

3534

3558.4

3558.9

3640.5

3647.5

3657.9

3706.6

3783

3900.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Property Crime Vs. Unemployment

Total

Simple Hypothe

sis

FindingsIt is evident that there is not a positive correlation between states with low property crime rates versus there unemployment rate. This seems to agree with Young’s results from his study. The results are inconclusive. However, the other authors may be right that there are many other factors involved.

•If states with the least property crime rate positively correlated with unemployment, the line graph should go from small-large•It clearly does not

Conclusion• At the conclusion of my lab, the data appears to be

inconclusive to a positive correlation between unemployment rates and property crime rates per 100,000 inhabitants. However, as seen in the last line graph, the two states with the least property crime in 2012 (North Dakota and South Dakota) ranked in the top 3 for lowest unemployment. This proves that unemployment may be a factor to a certain degree. It is also evident that the state with the 3rd lowest property crime rate (New York), was ranked 38th highest state for unemployment rate. There are clearly other variables to consider. • Baron mentioned emotions as one variable that may cause crime as a

result from his study of unemployment and crime.

• Chamlin and Aaltonen both came to the conclusion that significant lengths of unemployment increases the chance of crime.

• The unemployed rate statistics were recorded overall from 2012. A different year may yield different results.

• Different areas of the country or dividing the state may also yield a different result.