arctic resilience assessment: exploring methods for scaling up
TRANSCRIPT
Arctic Resilience Assessment
Juan-Carlos RochaMiriam HuitricGarry Peterson
“The approach involves constructing a conceptual model of a system that includes resources, stakeholders and institutions, and identifies potential thresholds between
alternative systems states in order to provide insight into factors that build or erode a systems resilience”
Regime Shifts & Adaptive Capacity
• Arctic: Political, economical and ecologically dynamic setting dominated by cross-scale interactions
• Developing methods to scale up the resilience assessment to the Arctic region
• Combining the framework from the Regime Shifts Database with analysis of detailed case studies to better understand sources of adaptive capacity
Mechanism
Exist
ence
Well established
Proposed
Contested
Contested
Proposed
Well established
Soil structure
Marine foodwebs Monsoon weakening Termohaline circulation West Antarctica Collapse
Encroachment Fisheries collapse
Dryland degradation Forest to savanna Steppe to tundra Mangroves collapse
Tundra to forest
Floating plants Thermokarst lakes Greenland Arctic sea ice
Bivalves collapse Coral transitions Lake Eutrophication Marine Eutrophication Hypoxia Kelps transitions Peatlands River channel change Salt marshes Soil salinization
Regime Shift Database includes 11 Arctic related Regime Shifts
Arctic network analysis with 11 Regime Shifts
Access to marketsAgriculture
Atmospheric CO2
DemandDrainage
Droughts
ENSO like events
Fire frequency
Fishing
Fishing technology
Floods
Global warming
Green house gases
Hunting
Invasive species
Nutrients inputs
Precipitation
Rainfall variability
Ranching (livestock)
Sea level rise
Sediments
Subsidies
Temperature
Tragedy of the commons
Upwellings
Urbanization
Arctic sea ice
Fisheries collapse
Greenland
Marine foodwebs
Peatlands
River channel change
Salt marshes
Steppe to tundra
Thermohaline circulation
Thermokarst lakes
Tundra to Forest
Arctic Sea IceFisheries collapse
Greenland
Marine foodwebs
PeatlandsRiver channel change
Salt marshes
Steppe to tundra
Termohaline circulation
Thermokarst lakes
Tundra to Forest
Soil formation
Primary production
Nutrient cycling
Water cycling
Biodiversity
Freshwater
Foodcrops
Livestock
Fisheries
Wild animal and plant food
Timber
Other crops
Hydropower
Climate regulation
Water purification
Water regulation
Regulation of soil erosion
Pest and disease regulation
Natural hazard regulation
Recreation
Aesthetic values
Knowledge and educational values
Spiritual and religious
In how many different ways can the drivers impact ecosystem services?
Fishing
Nut
rient
s in
puts
Precipitation
Urbanization
Trag
edy
of th
e co
mm
ons
Subsidies
Acc
ess
to m
arke
tsFi
shin
g te
chno
logy
Upwellings
Demand
EN
SO
like
eve
nts
Drainage
Sediments
Inva
sive
spe
cies
Sea
leve
l ris
eFloods
Fire
freq
uenc
yAgriculture
Droughts
Ran
chin
g (li
vest
ock)
Hunting
Rai
nfal
l var
iabi
lity
Glo
bal w
arm
ing
Atm
osph
eric
CO
2G
reen
hou
se g
ases
Temperature
Water cyclingClimate regulationBiodiversityFisheriesAesthetic valuesWild animal and plant foodWater regulationFreshwaterWater purificationSoil formationRegulation of soil erosionOther cropsNatural hazard regulationTimberLivestockFoodcropsHydropowerSpiritual and religiousPest and disease regulationKnowledge and educational valuesRecreationPrimary productionNutrient cycling
Impacts on people
Health
Soc
ial c
onfli
ct
No
dire
ct im
pact
Cul
tura
l ide
ntity
Sec
urity
of h
ousi
ng a
nd in
frast
ruct
ure
Aes
thet
ic a
nd re
crea
tiona
l val
ues
Food
and
nut
ritio
n
Live
lihoo
ds a
nd e
cono
mic
act
iviti
es
Peatlands
Thermokarst lakes
Greenland
Steppe to tundra
River channel change
Termohaline circulation
Salt marshes
Fisheries collapse
Arctic Sea Ice
Marine foodwebs
Tundra to Forest
Human well-being
Peatlands
Marine foodwebs
Steppe to tundra
Termohaline circulation
Tundra to Forest
Greenland
River channel change
Fisheries collapse
Arctic Sea Ice
Salt marshes
Thermokarst lakes
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
ProvisioningRegulatingCulturalSupporting
Ecosystem Services
Case studies comparisonBuilding resilience and Adaptive capacity !
Learning to live with change and uncertainty !Nurturing diversity for reorganisation
and renewal !Combining different types of
knowledge for learning !Creating opportunity for self-
organisation (Folke et al 2004)
Source: Arctic Resilience Interim Report 2013
Managing Arctic regime shift driversInternational cooperation to manage most drivers of regime shifts.
Regulating single drivers, such as Climate change, won’t prevent all regime shifts. Need for transformations!
Regulating local drivers can build resilience to global drivers.
Avoiding regime shifts requires poly-centric institutions.
Fisheries collapse
Salt marshes
Peatlands
Steppe to tundra
Marine foodwebs
Arctic sea ice
Greenland
River channel change
Thermohaline circulation
Thermokarst lakes
Tundra to Forest LocalNationalInternational
Drivers by Management Type
Proportion of RS Drivers
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Subscribe to our newsletter www.stockholmresilience.su.se/subscribe
Thank you!
Work in progress !
1.Coastal erosion in Alaska 2.Moth larvae outbreaks & birch forest mortality in Norway 3.Coastal fishery in Norway 4.Sea ice in Greenland 5.Relocation due to floods in Lena river, Russia 6.Permafrost thawing and pastoralism in Yakutia, Russia 7.Increasing Arctic shipping and impact on Vaigach, Russia 8.Whale watching / tourism in Iceland 9.Reindeer husbandry Yamal-Nenets, W Russia 10.Näätämö drainage basing restoration and salmon,
Finland 11.Reindeer husbandry in Finnmark, Norway 12.Livelihoods shift and mobility in northern Greenland 13.Salmon decline in Alaska 14.Yukaghirs-Elk hunting in Yakutia, Russia
!Potential cases to add?
!15.Polar bears (hunting*) 16.Bringing back large herbivores 17.Urbanization (~ livelihoods shift?)* 18.Acidification* 19.Snow geese 20.Avalanches* 21.Arctic transport routes** 22.Cultural shifts (ecosystem services, education, ethnic
identity) 23.Self-determination (first nations sovereignty, cultural
identity, institutions e.g. co-management)