scaling up climate resilience: the cases of madagascar and...
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Scaling up Climate Resilience: the Cases of Madagascar and São Tomé and Príncipe
Sofia Bettencourt, Lead Operations Officer, World Bank
Scaling up Climate Resilience: the Cases of Madagascar and Sao Tome and Principe
Sofia Bettencourt, Lead Operations Officer, World Bank
This presentation shows how TFESSD resources helped leverage additional financing, and eventually assisted clients in developing climate resilient programs in Madagascar and Sao Tome and Principe
Sao Tome and Principe
Madagascar
Case 1: Madagascar
TFESSD Assistance started in 2006, focusing on three key priorites:
Analysis of Climate Change Trends
Risk Transfer Instruments
Cyclone Resistant Construction Standards
From an initial TFESSD funding of US$200,000, the program leveraged close to US$1.5 million
Today, it is preparing investments of close to US$13 million* * from GFDRR and GEF
National Champions were linked to Centers of Excellence
Met Services
University of Cape Town
Analysis of Past and Future Climate Trends (1960-2100)
Oct 2006 – March 2008
Link National Champions to Centers of Excellence
Met Services
University of Cape Town
Analysis of Cyclone Simulation Tracks (to determine changes in itinerary and intensity)
March 2007 – 2009
MIT
Link National Champions to Centers of Excellence
Ministry of Finance
Risk Transfer into National Budget
International Institute for Applied Systems Analhysis
(IIASA) Austria
Link National Champions to Centers of Excellence
Prime Minister’s Office
Cyclone Proof Norms and Standards
Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery
Technical Institutes in India and Bangladesh
Tonga Cyclone Norms
Analysis of Climate Change Trends (March 2008)
• Historical Trends (1961-2005) – Analysis of daily
temperature and rainfall trends for 21 stations
• Future Trends (2055) – Used 13 GCMs validated for the region
• Cyclone Trends - Used cyclone simulation tracking (with assistance from MIT)
Collaboration with University of Cape Town, funded by TFESSD
The study was published by the Directorate General of Meteorology and was widely disseminated…
Mainstreaming into National Programs
The process initiated through the TFESSD (Bank executed) was then incorporated into Madagascar’s Disaster Risk Management Program
- Madagascar became the first African country to execute a grant from the Global Facility for Disaster Management (2008-2011)
- In 2008, Madagascar also became the first African
country to implement a Post Disaster Risk Assessment - today, PDNAs have been carried out in more than 10 African countries
- Its team of national champions became leaders of
the Disaster Risk Management program…
Case 2: São Tomé and Príncipe
Like most African countries, São Tomé and Príncipe is suffering from increased flood, drought, and storm effects
Traditional fishermen used to navigate by sight of the volcano…
Yet since the 1980s, Sao Tome and Principe suffers from increased storms and fog from the African continent
Mortality at sea is now three times the world average for fishing as an occupation…
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Fishermen lost at sea (2003-2010)
Case 2: São Tomé and Príncipe
Traditional fishing communities – the Angolares – have settled in marginal lands and are increasingly suffering the effects of flash floods – both from the sea as well as from the river…
The National Adaptation Plan of Action indicated that these impacts were largely caused by climate change…
….Yet external experts questioned whether this was so...
Could fishing pressure be causing fishers to venture further off to sea?
Could coastal communities own behavior increase their risk?
How much were the impacts really caused by climate change?
Case 2: São Tomé and Príncipe
At stake was a US$4.1 million GEF financing.
To qualify, Sao Tome and Principe needed to show that it had sufficient scientific evidence of climate change effects
In 2010, under TFESSD support, the World Bank commissioned two studies from the University of Cape Town:
1.An analysis of historical changes in ocean winds and aerosol patterns
•Median change in average rainfall by 2040-2060 (mm/month) during September-November season.
2. An analysis of historical and projected changes in temperature and rainfall
Case 2: São Tomé and Príncipe
The analysis was able to demonstrate convincingly a climate change effect for the observed trends:
1.Average precipitation is declining
2.There is more intense rainfall at the end of the dry season
3.There is increased aerosol concentration and squals during the fog season (December-February) – which coincides with the season of highest losses of fishermen at sea
•Median change in average rainfall by 2040-2060 (mm/month) during September-November season.
In June 2011, Sao Tome and Principe received a US$4.1 million GEF Grant to assist coastal communities in adapting to climate change
Lessons Learned TFESSD assistance – by filling strategic gaps - can provide critical support to national programs, both on institution building as well as analytical needs
It is particularly effective when it focuses on three « I’s »
Betting on the Right Institutions
Addressing Incentives
Promoting Appropriate Instruments
