applying predictive analytics to improve talent retention...applying predictive analytics to improve...
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Applying Predictive Analytics to Improve Talent Retention
Thomas Daglis Associate Data Scientist: Ultimate Software
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Goals for today
Focus on solving problems through a data driven
approach
Hone your skills as an analytical storyteller
Motivate you to act on your analytics
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Ever purchased a Car?
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Judgment vs. Data Predictions
Gut-level input
Planned Periodically Manually Updated Highly Subjective
Employee records
Always Available Always Up-to-date
Unbiased
Judgment Data
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A simple philosophy to become data-driven
Data Knowledge Action
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Workshop #1 Practice Data Identification
How might you measure employee engagement?
Source: SHRM – “Employee Job Satisfaction and Engagement Report” - 2015
Team Dynamics Meaningful work
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“If we have data, let’s look at data. If all we have are opinions, then let’s start with mine.” Jim Barksdale, Former CEO, Netscape
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Successful CHROs are assertive and data-driven
80% of executives agree that their company can’t succeed without an assertive, data-driven CHRO, who takes a strong stance on talent issues and uses relevant facts to deliver an informed point of view.
Source: Februrary 2015 Harris poll survey of 301 corporate executives across America
4%
28%
52%
16%
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Strongly Disagree
Somewhat Disagree
80%
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Current State of Analytics
11% 20%
24% 26%
27% 38%
44%
HRSupply chainSocial media
CollaborationMobility
User productivityCRM/ERP
What new analytics and big data solutions are you most focused on? ?
Source: Gatepoint Research / IBM – “Strategies for Integrating Analytics” – May 2014
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Employee retention is #1 problem for CHRO’s
Source: SHRM/Globoforce – “2015 Employee Recognition Survey”
4% 10%
10% 19%
18% 18%
31% 35%
26% 39%
47% 33%
4% 7%
9% 9%
11% 12%
14% 22% 22%
24% 29%
35% 39%
40%
OtherRevenue per FTE
*Employee brand*Employee happiness
ProductivityEmployee enablement - providing
Relieving employee frustrationEmployee satisfaction
Performance managementCulture management
RecruitmentSuccession planning
Employee engagementEmpoyee retention/turnover
20152013
Top organizational challenges cited by HR professionals
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Replacing Employees Is Expensive
Entry Level Employees
Mid-Level Employees
High-Level or Highly Specialized Employees
Source: TLNT – “What Was Management Thinking? The High Cost of Employee Turnover”, 2015
30-50% Annual Salary
1.5x Annual Salary
4x Annual Salary
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Predictive and Prescriptive Talent Analytics
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Predictive vs Prescriptive
Suggesting the best action to take to influence a different outcome
Predictive Analytics
Prescriptive Actions
The power to use what happened yesterday to accurately predict what
will happen tomorrow
“An analytic without action is useless”
– Steve VanWieren
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16 million data points of
workforce data
only 4% successfully
executed data-driven HCM programs
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Com
pens
atio
n Hi
stor
y
Identify Retention
Risks
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There are drivers in your HR data
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Each Employee Gets a Score
99.9 99.2 98.7
18.4
59.7
64.5
80.3
25.7 36.7
48.1
60.4
42.5
72.8
87.0
96.9 94.7 90.3
10.3
HPI
HPI
HPI
HPI
HIGH RISK LOW RISK
MEDIUM RISK
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Retention Predictor™ Results HIGH RISK
10% MED RISK 40%
LOW RISK 50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
10.3 - 59.7 59.7 - 93.1 93.1 - 99.9% o
f Em
ploy
ees
/ Ex
pect
ed S
ucce
ss
Rate
Retention Predictor Historical Score Ranges # Terminated # Retained
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Retention Use Case – Financial Services
10% lowest scores tagged 61% actually left
47 employees correctly identified
Judgment Analytics 4.3% tagged
43% actually left
16 employees correctly identified
Analytics identified 3X more ‘at risk’ employees than manager assessment alone
152 terminated
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HIGH PERFORMER
High Risk of Leaving
Save the most valuable employees
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HIGH PERFORMER
Low Risk of Leaving
Optimize investment in employees
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High Performer Predictor™ Results HIGH CHANCE
10% of employees
MED CHANCE 40% of
employees
LOW CHANCE 50% of
employees
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
21.4 - 80.3 9.6 - 21.4 0.2 - 15.3
% o
f Em
ploy
ees
/ Ex
pect
ed S
ucce
ss
Rate
High Performer Predictor Historical Score Ranges High Perf Not High Perf
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High Performer Use Case – Financial Services
~9% tagged 28% received >5% raise
Judgment Data ~27% tagged 13% received >5% raise
Analytics was 2X more effective at identifying current high
Best practice = 5-10% of talent pool
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A simple philosophy to become data-driven
Data Knowledge Action
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31% don’t like their boss Aberdeen Group 31% do not feel empowered Aberdeen Group 35% due to internal politics/turf Aberdeen Group 43% for lack of recognition Aberdeen Group
Why do people leave?
89% of managers believe that most employees are pulled away by better pay…but 88% of voluntary resignations happen for reasons other than pay Leigh Branham, “The Seven Hidden Reasons Employees Leave”
>60% do not feel like they get enough feedback Gallup Poll 75% of people leave because of work relationship issues Saratoga Institute 75% of people who leave voluntarily don’t quit their jobs; they quit their boss Roger Herman
#1 reason is lack of recognition Bersin #1 reason for millennials: not learning enough Business Insider
79% of those who quit their job cite lack of appreciation as primary reason SHRM
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A SCARY STATISTIC 3 in 4 full-time workers are open to or actively looking for new job opportunities
Source: CareerBuilder - http://careerbuildercommunications.com/candidatebehavior
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What makes people STAY?
POWER
GROWTH Receive Special Training
RECOGNITION
MONEY
AUTONOMY
Issue Cash Award
Become A Mentor
Send Handwritten note
Offer Flex Hours
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My Leadership Actions
Prescriptive Analytics
UltiPro prescriptive actions provide practical advice
and inspirational messages about effective leadership.
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The groups receiving actions have up to
50% lower turnover
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FOR EXAMPLE: SUPPOSE YOU SAVE 10 MID-LEVEL PEOPLE
AVERAGE SALARY: $75,000
10 employees X $75,000 X 1.5 (replacement factor) = $1,125,000 in savings
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Workshop #2 – Practice 6 Great Traits of Leaders
Vision Conviction Humility
Integrity Credibility Collaboration
How would you measure these things? What actions could you plan and take?
Source: “Follow Your Conscience” – Frank Sonnenberg
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YOU NEED TO BE THE GAME CHANGER
Waiting is not an option
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Game Changer
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YOUR PEOPLE are YOUR BUSINESS
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