application of iiasa gains model for integrated assessment of air pollution in europe
DESCRIPTION
Application of IIASA GAINS Model for Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution in Europe. Janusz Cofala International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Methodology. GAINS model: GHG-Air pollution Interactions and Synergies Objectives. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Application of IIASA GAINS Model for Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution
in Europe
Janusz CofalaInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Methodology
GAINS model: GHG-Air pollution Interactions and SynergiesObjectives
Integrated assessment of international emission control strategies:
• Quantification of national emission control potentials and costs
• For exogenous projections of activities
• Balancing of efforts across countries/economic sectors for
– different objective functions, and
– different exogenous constraints
• Considering interactions between GHGs and air pollutants
• Taking into account co-benefits between air pollution control and GHG mitigation
GAINS integrates multiple pollutants and their multiple effects
Emissions and control measures
for air pollutants
PMBCOC
SO2 NOx VOC NH3
Impacts
Health impacts: from fine particulate matter
from ground-level ozone Vegetation damage: Ozone (agricultural crops)
Acidification (forests, water)
Eutrophication (biodiversity)
Emissions and control measures
for air pollutants and greenhouse gases
PMBCOC
SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO2 CH4 N2OHFCsPFCsSF6
Impacts
Health impacts: from fine particulate matter ()
from ground-level ozone ()Vegetation damage: Ozone (agricultural crops) ()
Acidification (forests, water)
Eutrophication (biodiversity) Radiative forcing: - from direct greenhouse gases
- via aerosols and ozone () () () () () ()
Building blocks of GAINS
Energy/agricultural projections
Emissions
Emission control options
Atmospheric dispersion
Air pollution impacts,Basket of GHG emissions
Costs
PRIMES, POLES, CAPRI,IEA, nat. projections
Simulation/“Scenario analysis” mode
The GAINS optimization mode
Energy/agricultural projections
Emissions
Emission control options
Atmospheric dispersion
Costs
Environmental targets
OPTIMIZATION
PRIMES, POLES, CAPRI,IEA, national projections
Air pollution impacts,Basket of GHG emissions
Applications for the Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol
Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and
Ground-level Ozone
• Adopted in November 1999, 26 parties, entered in force in May 2005
• Sets country-specific emission ceilings for 2010 for SO2, NOx, VOCs, and NH3
• Reductions in Europe (relative to 1990): – SO2 – 63%,
– NOx – 41%
– VOC – 40%
– NH3 – 17%.
• Based on RAINS analysis
• Benefits: – Less ecosystems with excessive acidification (78 Mha) and eutrophication
(57Mha)
– Number of days with excessive ozone levels halved
– 47,500 fewer premature deaths
– Exposure of vegetation to ozone 44% lower
• Currently under revision; GAINS used as a scientific tool
Current and future (2020) emissions of air pollutants in Europe and Russia, kilotons
02000400060008000
100001200014000160001800020000
SO2 NOx PM 2.5 NH3 VOC
2000 Baseline Max. Reductions
Europe
Russia – European part
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
SO2 NOx PM 2.5 NH3 VOC
2000 Baseline Max. Reductions
Loss of life expectancy due to anthropogenic sources of PM2.5, months
2020 Baseline (4.7 months)
2000 (8.2 months)
Emission control costs of further reductions in health effects of PM
Loss in statistical life expectancy - base year and optimized 75% reduction in health effects from PM
Costs for achieving 75% improvement of health effects from PM
Use of GAINS to explore co-benefits of climate policy for air pollution
Low carbon strategies have significant co-benefits
Low CO2 strategies result in
less SO2, NOx and PM
emissions,
lower damage to health and vegetation from reduced air pollution,
cost savings for air pollution control equipment, which compensate (part of) GHG mitigation costs.
CO2 emissions vs. health impacts (YOLLs)
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
Change in CO2 emissions compared to baseline
Ch
an
ge in
loss
in
sta
tist
ical lif
e e
xpect
an
cy
com
pare
d t
o b
ase
line
● EU-27 ● China ● India
On-line calculator on the Internet
Why actively participate in integrated assessment ?
1. Better understanding of preparatory work for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol
2. Correcting current information in GAINS3. Possibility of analyzing effects of national pathways and control
strategies like: - different demand for energy, - emission reductions, their environmental impacts and costs of technologies from technical annexes - effects of grace periods or derogations in technology implementation
4. Analysis of co-benefits of climate scenarios for air pollution
5. Analysis of costs of reduction of GHG (GAINS GHG Mitigation Efforts Calculator)
The GAINS model is freely accessible on the Internet: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
• Access to on-line versions:– Europe– China and East Asia– South Asia– Annex I countries
• Policy reports, user tutorials,model documentation.