appendix i.1 maps

Appendix I.1 Maps

2

Appendix I.1.a : California relief map

3

Appendix I.2 Data transfer and extraction

4

Data transfer and extraction Shell The easiest way to transfer files and extract from them only the data needed is to use a shell. Here is an example with comments: !/bin/csh foreach datafile ( pres.tropp.1979.nc pres.tropp.1981.nc pres.tropp.1982.nc pres.tropp.1983.nc pres.tropp.1985.nc pres.tropp.1986.nc pres.tropp.1987.nc ) List of the files to transfer then to subsample. cd $HOME rm /d/faure/Programs/list_get_data rm .netrc The previous files are deleted. cp proto_netrc .netrc echo cd archive3/ncep.reanalysis/tropopause/ >> .netrc echo binary >> .netrc echo get $datafile >> .netrc echo quit >> .netrc echo "" >> .netrc The file .netrc contains the automatical FTP commands. It is created from a prototype (with the common lines) and the specific line concerning to path to access the files listed above is added. echo '$'nmlist >> ./Programs/list_get_data echo filename_in='"/a/faure/'$datafile'"' >> /d/faure/Programs/list_get_data echo filename_out='"/magop/extract_'$datafile'"' >> /d/faure/Programs/list_get_data cat /d/faure/Programs/proto_list_pres.tropp >> /d/faure/Programs/list_get_data cd /a/faure The file list_get_data is a input namelist for the executable go_extract. It contains the path of the file to subsample, the path of the final file, and several other parameters that are contained in a prototype file. ftp archive.cdc.noaa.gov The file is tranferred in the current directory. cd /d/faure/Programs/ go_extract list_get_data The extraction program is launched. cd $HOME rm /a/faure/$datafile end

5

Example of prototype file for .netrc machine ftp.cdc.noaa.gov login anonymous password [email protected] macdef init cd Datasets Example of prototype file for the namelist varname='shum', lon_start=57, lat_start=9, time_start=1, nb_lon_out=61, nb_lat_out=29, nb_time=730, tstride=2, lon_in='lon', lat_in='lat', level_in='level', time_in='time', nb_level=4, ! < 6 , 0 if NO level ! list_levels=3,4,6,8, / $end It contains the name of the variable; the first corner of the area to keep (lat_start and lon_start); the number of latitudes and longitudes to keep (nb_lat_out and nb_lon_out); the first time to take, the number of dates to take and the step between each date (in this case the original file has data each 6 hours, and only the 00Z and 12Z data are extracted); the names of the dimensions in the original file; the number (<6) of levels to keep (if there is no level then 0 should be used); the rank of the levels to keep.

6

Appendix II.1 Selected properties of the severe weather

episodes examined

7

Heavy Rain Definition

RAINFALL EVENT NOT DUE ONLY TO CONVECTION, THAT LASTS AT LEAST 24 HOURS IN A ROW, WITH EITHER A TOTAL OF RAIN SUPERIOR TO 2.5 INCHES (63.5 MM) OR AN ACTIVITY SUPERIOR TO 2 INCHES PER DAY (50.8 MM

PER DAY).

Occurrences found for the 1979-1999 period 14 occurrences sorted by their duration

Beginning (local time)

End (local time)

Total (inches)

Maximum in one day

Day of maximum

Duration (days)

Activity (inches/day)

2/15/80 1:00 2/17/80 21:00 3.35 1.27 17 2.83 1.18 1/8/95 2:00 1/10/95 17:00 5.6 2.83 9 2.63 2.13 3/29/82 7:00 3/31/82 15:00 3.1 1.83 31 2.33 1.33 1/12/90 8:00 1/14/90 14:00 3.6 2.53 12 2.25 1.60 1/24/97 19:00 1/26/97 17:00 2.6 1.35 26 1.92 1.36 2/16/86 4:00 2/18/86 0:00 6.84 3.21 17 1.83 3.73 11/12/81 4:00 11/13/81 21:00 4.1 2.25 13 1.71 2.40 11/17/82 2:00 11/18/82 15:00 2.45 1.55 18 1.54 1.59 12/11/95 1:00 12/12/95 12:00 3.15 2.27 11 1.46 2.16 12/24/83 4:00 12/25/83 12:00 3.2 2.21 24 1.33 2.40 4/10/82 3:00 4/11/82 10:00 2.45 1.88 10 1.29 1.90 2/2/98 6:00 2/3/98 13:00 3 1.62 3 1.29 2.32

1/12/93 15:00 1/13/93 17:00 3.5 2.53 13 1.08 3.23 11/24/85 0:00 11/24/85 23:00 2.27 2.27 25 0.96 2.37

Appendix II.1.a

8

Hard Freeze Definition

TWO-DAY -OR MORE- PERIOD, DURING WHICH THE MINIMAL TEMPERATURE IS LESS THAN 30 DEGREES

FAHRENHEIT (-1 DEGREE CELSIUS). MOREOVER THIS COOLING MUST NOT BE DUE SOLELY TO

RADIATION.



End (local time)

Duration (days)

Minimums * (° Fahrenheit)

Maximums * (° Fahrenheit)

12/20/90 12/23/90 4 34/18 45/29 02/05/89 02/08/89 4 42/23 48/24 12/21/98 12/24/98 4 43/26 48/28 12/12/85 12/15/85 4 38/27 49/31 01/03/93 01/05/93 3 42/27 47/29 12/29/78 12/31/78 3 40/28 42/29 12/30/82 12/31/82 2 46/24 46/29 12/25/88 12/26/88 2 41/27 47/29 01/13/97 01/14/97 2 42/26 48/25 12/07/78 12/08/78 2 49/29 45/25 12/31/88 01/01/89 2 42/27 46/29

* The couple of temperature is relative respectively to the daily maximal and minimal temperatures

Appendix II.1.b

9

Heat Wave Definition

AT LEAST A THREE CONSECUTIVE-DAY PERIOD DURING WHICH THE DAILY MAXIMAL TEMPERATURES ARE

ABOVE 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT (38 DEGREES CELSIUS), AND WITH AT LEAST ONE OF THEM ABOVE 105

DEGREES FAHRENHEIT (40.5 DEGREES CELSIUS).



End (local time)

Duration (days)

Average max. value

(° Fahrenheit)

Maximum (° Fahrenheit)

Day of maximum

08/08/96 08/16/96 9 106.6 110 08/10/96 08/04/90 08/11/90 8 106.6 110 08/08/90 07/21/80 07/27/80 7 104.3 108 07/25/80 07/10/84 07/15/84 6 104.8 110 07/13/84 07/01/91 07/05/91 5 106.6 111 07/03/91 07/10/90 07/14/90 5 106.6 109 07/11/90 08/04/97 08/08/97 5 105.4 109 08/07/97 08/01/87 08/05/87 5 105.4 108 08/02/87 08/15/92 08/19/92 5 104 107 08/16/92 07/16/88 07/19/88 4 109.3 112 07/17/88 07/28/96 07/31/96 4 105.8 109 07/31/96 08/24/88 08/27/88 4 104 106 08/26/88 08/28/87 08/30/87 3 107.3 110 08/30/87 09/03/88 09/05/88 3 107 108 09/04/88 08/06/81 08/08/81 3 105.3 106 08/08/81

Appendix II.1.c

10

Long Fog Definition

FIVE -OR MORE- DAY PERIOD DURING WHICH DENSE FOG, I.E. VISIBILITY UNDER

A QUARTER OF MILE (APPROXIMATELY 400 M), IS REPORTED AT LEAST ONCE A

DAY



End (local time)

Duration (days)

12/12/85 12/28/85 17 12/28/98 01/07/99 11 01/06/86 01/14/86 9 12/23/89 12/30/89 8 02/03/91 02/10/91 8 01/10/94 01/16/94 7 01/21/98 01/27/98 7 12/31/79 01/05/80 6 02/25/86 03/02/86 6 12/16/89 12/21/89 6 01/14/92 01/19/92 6 12/13/80 12/17/80 5 01/11/82 01/15/82 5 12/28/82 01/01/83 5 01/11/83 01/15/83 5 12/18/86 12/22/86 5 11/29/88 12/03/88 5 12/10/89 12/14/89 5 12/11/90 12/15/90 5 01/09/91 01/13/91 5 12/09/91 12/13/91 5 12/28/93 01/01/94 5 02/01/95 02/05/95 5 02/11/96 02/15/96 5 01/09/99 01/13/99 5

Appendix II.1.d

11

Appendix II.2 Presentation of the statistical assessment

program

12

Bootstrap Program This program is written in FORTRAN90 and uses the NetCDF FORTRAN library. To compil the program on ATM24 (advised because it is the only to access the magneto-optic disks) use the following command line : f90 -L/e/local/netcdf/lib -lnetcdf bootstrap.f90 -o go_boot To run this program use : go_boot Namelist (-t) (-Xs) (-d) (-fd) (-a) The namelist is compulsory and its architecture is described below. The other arguments are optional and will be described later. Algorithm A precise algorithm is presented in the documentation. Some further programming points are developed here.

The studied period is defined by its start and end (Year and month), and by a list of months (which allows a seasonal study). All these data are extracted from the original files and put together into a NetCDF file named temporary.nc under the directory /a/faure. It is assumed that the input files are named extract_VARNAME.YYYY.nc (varname is the short variable name, YYYY is a four digits year). The anomalies are calculated from long term mean files, under the same directory as the data files and named extract_ VARNAME.ltm.nc. Anomalies are defined by data value (MM DD HH, 2-digit month day and hour) - long term mean (MM DD), except if MM DD = 02 29 where the long term mean used is MM DD-1 (28th of February). The output files are : netCDF file (must be built using go_create before using this program; cf. end of this document) that contains composite and test significance maps; /a/faure/significance/MAP_VARNAME_EVENTNAME that contains the global significance of each composite maps; some other files can be generated optionally (cf. options). Namelist A Namelist is presented (italic) along with some comments. $SPECS varname='hgt', !Name of the studied variable ok_day_night=.false., !True means no difference between 0 and 12h False means use of 2 null distributions, one for 12h and the other for 00h data ; True means that only one null distribution is elaborated.

13

nb_levels=4 , Number of levels ; if variable with only one level (surface or tropopause ones) then 0 is used. stat_names='sds', 'mean', Names of the statistical tests performed (Nb<6) The statistical tests currently implemented are mean, std and sds. path='/a/faure/', Path of the input data nb_dates=13, Number of severe event occurrences filename_dates='/d/faure/Programs/Dates/date_heat_wave', Name of the file which contains the dates of the severe events. This file must contain at least (nb_prior_dates+1) groups of nb_dates dates. The first group is relative to the beginning of the event, and the other ones are relative to the hours before. Format : one date YYYY MM DD (HH) per line, a blank line must be placed before each group of dates (even the first one). months_stud=0,0,0,0,0,6,7,8,0,0,0,0, List of the months studied : 0 means month no studied. filename_out='/a/faure/heat_wave_surf_trop.nc', Name of the output file signi_limits=99,98,95,0,0,0, Levels of significance for the bootstrap (number<6) Values MUST DECREASE (and must be positive and integer) ! data_beg=1999,01, Beginning of the studied period (Format YYYY,MM) data_end=1999,12, Beginning of the studied period (Format YYYY,MM) nb_rdm_samples=1000, Number of random samples performed during the Bootstrap. nb_prior_dates=8, Number of prior dates studied (0 means only the first date). nb_lats=29, nb_lons=61, Numbers of latitudes and longitudes points on the input data. nb_values=3864, Number of data for the studied period.

14

Used only with the -t option (use of the temporary.nc file already existing that groups all the data corresponding to the studied period). This number is given by the program while running. / $END Options -t : forces the program not to elaborate the temporary.nc file. It is assumed that the relevant one already exists. The number of data contained in this file must be specified in the Namelist (cf. nb_dates). This option consequently allows running the program quicker. -Xs : this option precise the number of statistical tests to perform (from -s (one, default) to -ssssss (6, maximum)). The name of the X tests must be specified. -fd : this option prints into a file in /a/faure/significance/Fsigni the null distribution corresponding to the Ftest (global significance of the maps). -d : this option prints into a file in /a/faure/significance/Signi the bootstrap null distribution(s) corresponding to a test statistic. The first value is the value of the sample studied for the first group of occurrences. -a : the statistical significance is performed on anomaly fields. The long term mean file corresponding to the variable at hand must be present under the same directory as the variable data. Limits The user must be aware of the limits of this program : The anomaly calculation is based only on the current fields used (the scale factors and offsets are implemented directly in the program). If the option that generates 2 null distributions is used the first group of dates must contain only 12Z ones (therefore the second only 00Z ones, and so on). Automatical use : shell An example of shell is presented ; it creates a Namelist and runs the program. A similar code can be written for each severe event and be gathered into a single shell. #!/bin/csh # HEAT WAVE

15

foreach variable ( omega ) cd $HOME cd Programs rm /d/faure/Programs/LIST echo '$'SPECS >> LIST echo varname='"'$variable'"', >> LIST echo ok_day_night=.false., >> LIST echo nb_levels=4 , >> LIST echo stat_names='"mean"','"sds"', >> LIST echo path='"/magop/"', >> LIST echo nb_dates=14, >> LIST echo filename_dates='"/d/faure/Programs/Dates/date_HW_final"', >> LIST echo months_stud=0,0,0,0,0,6,7,8,0,0,0,0, >> LIST echo filename_out='"/a/faure/Current_data/heat_wave_pres.nc"', >> LIST echo signi_limits=99,98,95,0,0,0, >> LIST echo data_beg=1979,01, >> LIST echo data_end=1999,12, >> LIST echo nb_rdm_samples=1000, >> LIST echo nb_prior_dates=8, >> LIST echo nb_lats=29, >> LIST echo nb_lons=61, >> LIST echo nb_values=5748, >> LIST echo / >> LIST echo '$'END >> LIST go_boot LIST -ss -d -fd end

16

Appendix III.1 Example of global significance file

17

Example of global significance file This example file contains the value of global significance for each ‘hgt’ composite maps relative to heat wave. The levels are numbered from the lower one to the upper one (here ‘1’ is 850 hPa and ‘4’ is 300 hPa). The test statistics is indicated, and the relative hour too, with 12 hour step. HW hgtLEV1_mean_-0 99 hgtLEV2_mean_-0 99 hgtLEV3_mean_-0 99 hgtLEV4_mean_-0 98 hgtLEV1_mean_-1 99 hgtLEV2_mean_-1 99 hgtLEV3_mean_-1 99 hgtLEV4_mean_-1 98 hgtLEV1_mean_-2 98 hgtLEV2_mean_-2 99 hgtLEV3_mean_-2 98 hgtLEV4_mean_-2 95 hgtLEV1_sds_-0 0 hgtLEV2_sds_-0 0 hgtLEV3_sds_-0 98 hgtLEV4_sds_-0 0 hgtLEV1_sds_-1 0 hgtLEV2_sds_-1 0 hgtLEV3_sds_-1 0 hgtLEV4_sds_-1 0 hgtLEV1_sds_-2 0 hgtLEV2_sds_-2 95 hgtLEV3_sds_-2 0 hgtLEV4_sds_-2 0

18

Appendix III.2 Presentation of the program creating

NetCDF result files

19

Creation of NetCDF files for the results The command to use is : go_create filename_REF filename_RES Filename_REF is the name of a file used to obtain the results, with levels. It is used to initialize some characteristics of the result files. Two files will be created : filename_RES_pres.nc and filename_RES_surf_trop.nc. The command to create result files for anomalies is the same as before but go_create is replaced by go_create_ANO. In these files the variable names are different, and also their storage (offset, scale factor, ...).

20

Appendix III.3 Plot presentation

21

Appendix III.3.a : typical field, and comparaison between color and Black&White.

22

Appendix III.3.b : typical humidity fields

23

Appendix III.3.c : typical wind fields

24

Appendix III.3.d : plot conventions

25

Appendix III.4 Long duration dense fog figures

26

Appendix III.4.a

27

Appendix III.4.b

28

Appendix III.4.c

29

Appendix III.4.d

30

Appendix III.4.e

31

Appendix III.4.f

32

Appendix III.4.g

33

Appendix III.4.h

34

Appendix III.4.i

35

Appendix III.4.j

36

Appendix III.4.k

37

Appendix III.4.l

38

Appendix III.4.m

39

Appendix III.4.n

40

Appendix III.5 Heavy rain figures

41

Appendix III.5.a

42

Appendix III.5.b

43

Appendix III.5.c

44

Appendix III.5.d

45

Appendix III.5.e

46

Appendix III.5.f

47

Appendix III.5.g

48

Appendix III.5.h

49

Appendix III.5.i

50

Appendix III.5.j

51

Appendix III.5.k

52

Appendix III.5.l

53

Appendix III.5.m

54

Appendix III.5.n

55

Appendix III.5.o

56

Appendix III.5.p

57

Appendix III.5.q

58

Appendix III.5.r

59

Appendix III.6 Hard freeze figures

60

Appendix III.6.a

61

Appendix III.6.b

62

Appendix III.6.c

63

Appendix III.6.d

64

Appendix III.6.e

65

Appendix III.6.f

66

Appendix III.6.g

67

Appendix III.6.h

68

Appendix III.6.i

69

Appendix III.6.j

70

Appendix III.6.k

71

Appendix III.6.l

72

Appendix III.6.m

73

Appendix III.6.n

74

Appendix III.6.o

75

Appendix III.6.p

76

Appendix III.6.q

77

Appendix III.6.r

78

Appendix III.6.s

79

Appendix III.6.t

80

Appendix III.6.u

81

Appendix III.6.v

82

Appendix III.7 Heat wave figures

83

Appendix III.7.a

84

Appendix III.7.b

85

Appendix III.7.c

86

Appendix III.7.d

87

Appendix III.7.e

88

Appendix III.7.f

89

Appendix III.7.g

90

Appendix III.7.h

91

Appendix III.7.i

92

Appendix III.7.j

93

Appendix III.7.k

94

Appendix III.7.l

95

Appendix III.7.m

96

Appendix III.8 End heat wave figures

97

Appendix III.8.a

98

Appendix III.8.b

99

Appendix III.8.c

100

Appendix III.8.d

101

Appendix III.8.e

102

Appendix III.8.f

103

Appendix III.8.g

104

Appendix III.8.h

105

Appendix III.8.i

106

Appendix III.8.j

107

appendix i.1 maps

Documents