apl1-presentación (version2)

8/13/2019 APL1-presentación (version2)

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Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México.

Facultad de Economía.

“The new structure of international trade: theparticipation of countries in global value chains ”.

Leobardo Enríquez Hernández.Víctor Antonio Romero Ramírez.Itzel Guadalupe Vázquez López.



Aim and introduction.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the participation and position of teneconomies in global production chains and global value chains.

Global value chains play a major role in the global economy today, thegoods and services covered by the trade contain inputs can come from

many different countries and traditional trade statistics incur a mistake toattribute the full value transaction of such products to the latest economythat invests in the production process.

The various forces that led to the current global trading system aremainly: the drastic decreases in the costs of transport andcommunication, technology, low tariffs, abundant labor, capital andnatural resources, demand growing market for goods and services, andto promote and strengthen geopolitical structural trends favoring theinternationalization of production processes.



The interdependence of countries due to trade has increasedsignificantly because most countries imported incorporates partsor services, on the other hand, exports of any countryincorporated a higher proportion of value added abroad.

Value chains either intra-firm or inter-regional or global firms, areknown as global value chains. Therefore, the global value chainsare a set of links or assembly required to generate a product orservice activities, from conception to final sale, including recyclingof waste after use (Ferrando, 2012 ).

The rate of participation in global value chains allows us to knowthe extent to which a country's exports are integrated intointernational networks in international production networks, whichgives us an advantage to study the trade and investmentrelationship. This indicator shows the participation of developingcountries in global value chains both upstream and downstreamand corrects the limitations of the classic indicators, in which thecountries at the top of the chain (upstream), such as commodityexporters have to definition containing low value-added exportsabroad.



Countries:BrazilChinaGermany

Britain IndiaJapanKoreaMexicoRussia

United States

Methodology

Using methodologies Dietzembacher, et. al. (2007) and Koopman, et. al. (2011),we proceed in the first case the methodology to calculate A verage Propagation

Length (APL) and the sectorial composition of the countries within the GlobalProduction Chain (CGP) and in the second case to calculate the matrix exportsin value added at the sector and country, using the matrix of bilateral tradeWIOD.



After obtaining the direct and indirect production requirements inglobal trade taking approaches demand and supply , identify withthe APL countries and sectors within the CGP analyzing their role in

the global production structure for the propagation of effects ,differentiating the backward and forward.They are classified by the selected specialization they have had oneach stage of production with APL countries. After calculating the matrix of trade in value added , and the array ofvalue-added exports , the share of value added is calculated VAF

foreign and domestic VAD incorporated in exports for all countries.Participation VAF and VAD as a percentage of total exportsincorporated into value added for selected countries and years isshown.In addition the position of a country is calculated within the CGV iewhether it is upstream or downstream yielding results that specialize

in various stages of production , being contracted with APL .In the same countries is possible to perform a sector analysis , onwhich are the sectors that further incorporate value added domestic( national integration ) and foreign ( as this sector is linked in worldtrade ) also locate the position of each sector in the value chain atthe sectorial level .



Country participation and positioning in global value chains.

Supply chains (production) can be described as a system of value addedsources and destinations within a network of globally integrated production .Within a supply chain (production), each producer purchases inputs and thenadds value to them, which is included in the cost of the next stage ofproduction. At each stage of the process , intermediate goods cross the

international border , the value of trade flow is equal to the aggregate valuepaid to the factors of production in the exporting country.Furthermore, within global supply chains we can identify links betweensectors and intensities or wavelengths to quantify. In this section , themethod of propagation medium average length propagation length (APL ) ,which is defined as the average number of steps that a stimulus is needed inan area to spread the impact and affect other sectors are presented.



Average APLs backward (B) and forward (F) by country in 2011

0

1

2

3

4

56

7

8

9

10

11

12

0

1

2

3

4

56

7

8

9

10

11

12

A u s t r a l i a

A

u s t r i a

B é l g i c a

B u l g a r i a

B r a s i l

C a n a d á

C h i n a

C h i p r e

R e p u b l i c a

C h e c a

A l e m a n i a

D i n a m a r c a

E s p a ñ a

E s t o n i a

F i n l a n d i a

F r a n c i a

R e i n o

U n i d o

G r e c i a

H u n g r i a

I n d o n e s i a

I n d i a

I r l a n d a

I t a l i a

J a p ó n

C o r e a

L i t u a n i a

L u x e m b u r g o

L a t v i a

M

é x i c o

M a l t a

H o l a n d a

P o l o n i a

P o r t u g a l

R u m a n i a

R u s i a

R e p ú b l i c a

E s l o v a q u i a

E s l o v e n i a

S u e c i a

T u r q u í a

T a i w a n

E s t a d o s U

n i d o s

B_APL F_APL

Source: Prepared with information matrices WIOD world trade.



Average APLs backward (B) and forward (F) by sector in 2011

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

A g r i c u l t u r e , H

u n t i n g , F o r e s t r y a n d

F i s h i n g

M i n i n g a n d

Q u a r r y i n g

F o o d ,

B e v e r a g e s a n d

T o b a c c o

T e x t i l e s a n d

T e x t i l e P r o d u c t s

L e a t h e r ,

L e a t h e r a n d F o o t w e a r

W o o d a n d

P r o d u c t s o f W o o d a n d

C o r k

P u l p ,

P a p e r ,

P a p e r , P

r i n t i n g a n d

P u b l i s h i n g

C o k e ,

R e f i n e d

P e t r o l e u m a n d

N u c l e a r

F u e l

C h e m i c a l s a n d

C h e m i c a l P r o d u c t s

R u b b e r a n d

P l a s t i c s

O t h e r N o n - M e t a l l i c

M i n e r a l

B a s i c

M e t a l s a n d

F a b r i c a t e d M e t a l

M a c h i n e r y ,

N e c

E l e c t r i c a l a n d O p t i c a l E q u i p m e n t

T r a n s p o r t E q u i p m e n t

M a n u f a c t u r i n g ,

N e c ; R e c y c l i n g

E l e c t r i c i t y , G a s a n d

W a t e r

S u p p l y

C o n s t r u c t i o n

S a l e ,

M a i n t e n a n c e a n d

R e p a i r o f M o t o r V e h i c l e s a n d

M o t o r c y c l e s ;

R e t a i l S a l e o f F u e l

W h o l e s a l e T r a d e a n d C

o m m

i s s i o n T r a d e ,

E x c e p t o f

M o t o r V e h i c l e s a n d

M o t o r c y c l e s

R e t a i l T r a d e , E

x c e p t o f M o t o r

V e h i c l e s a n d

M o t o r c y c l e s ;

R e p a i r o f H o u s e h o l d

G o o d s

H o t e l s a n d

R e s t a u r a n t s

I n l a n d T r a n s p o r t

W a t e r

T r a n s p o r t

A i r T r a n s p o r t

O t h e r S u p p o r t i n g a n d

A u x i l i a r y

T r a n s p o r t A c t i v i t i e s ;

A c t i v i t i e s o

f T r a v e l A g e n c i e s

P o s t a n d

T e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s

F i n a n c i a l I n t e r m e d i a t i o n

R e a l E s t a t e

A c t i v i t i e s

R e n t i n g o f M

& E q a n d

O t h e r B u s i n e s s

A c t i v i t i e s

P u b l i c

A d m i n a n d

D e f e n c e ; C o m p u l s o r y

S o c i a l S e c u r i t y

E d u c a t i o n

H e a l t h a n d

S o c i a l W o r k

O t h e r C o m m u n i t y ,

S o c i a l a n d

P e r s o n a l S e r v i c e s

P r i v a t e

H o u s e h o l d s w

i t h E m p l o y e d

P e r s o n s

B_APL F_APL

Source: Prepared with information matrices WIOD world trade.



País VAD Incorporado enExportaciones 1995

VAF Incorporado enExportaciones 1995

VAD Incorporado enExportaciones 2011

VAF Incorporado enExportaciones 2011

Estados Unidos 91% 9% 86% 14%

China 85% 15% 78% 22%

Alemania 83% 17% 74% 26% Japón 94% 6% 82% 18%

Reino Unido 82% 18% 80% 20%

Rusia 93% 7% 94% 6%

Corea 76% 24% 58% 42%

Francia 81% 19% 72% 28%

México 80% 20% 75% 25%

Brasil 92% 8% 88% 12%

Promedio 40 países 76% 24% 70% 30%

Participation of foreign and domestic value added in exports

Source: Prepared with information matrices WIOD world trade .



Domestic and foreign content in exports in valueadded

Source: Prepared with information matrices WIOD world trade .

9 1 %

8 6 % 8 5 %

7 8 % 8 3 %

7 4 % 9 4 %

8 2 % 8 2 %

8 0 % 9 3 % 9 4 %

7 6 %

5 8 %

8 1 %

7 2 % 8 0 %

7 5 % 9 2 %

8 8 %

9 % 1 4 %

1 5 %

2 2 % 1 7 %

2 6 % 6 %

1 8 % 1 8 %

2 0 % 7 % 6 %

2 4 %

4 2 %

1 9 %

2 8 % 2 0 %

2 5 % 8 %

1 2 %

E s

t a d o s

U n

i d o s_

9 5

E s

t a d o s

U n

i d o s_

1 1

C h i n a_ 9 5

C h i n a_ 1 1

A l e m a n

i a_ 9 5

A l e m a n

i a_ 1 1

J a p

ó n_ 9 5

J a p

ó n_ 1 1

R e

i n o

U n

i d o_ 9 5

R e

i n o

U n

i d o_ 1 1

R u s

i a_ 9 5

R u s

i a_ 1 1

C o r e a_

9 5

C o r e a_

1 1

F r a n c

i a_ 9 5

F r a n c

i a_ 1 1

M é x

i c o_ 9 5

M é x

i c o_ 1 1

B r a s i l_

9 5

B r a s i l_

1 1

Doméstico Foráneo



Domestic and foreign content in exports in valueadded

88%86%

77%66%63%

55%64%65%

92%88%

80%82%

85%78%

71%71%70%

55%83%

74%73%

63%81%

70%61%

67%78%

66%81%

72%82%

80%79%

75%71%

55%86%87%89%

82%63%

57%81%

72%94%

82%76%

58%65%64%

54%38%

73%74%

80%75%

45%59%

69%62%

83%66%

74%73%

76%77%

93%94%

68%60%

66%65%76%

70%86%

79%66%

52%91%

86%

12%14%

23%34%37%

45%36%35%

8%12%

20%18%

15%22%

29%29%30%

45%17%

26%27%

37%19%

30%39%

33%22%

34%19%

28%18%

20%21%

25%29%

45%14%13%11%

18%37%

43%19%

28%6%

18%24%

42%35%36%

46%62%

27%26%

20%25%

55%41%

31%38%

17%34%

26%27%

24%23%

7%6%

32%40%

34%35%24%

30%14%

21%34%

48%9%

14%

Australia _95

Austria _95Bélgica _95

Bulgaria _95

Brasil _95

Canadá _95

China _95

Chipre _95

Republica Checa _95

Alemania _95

Dinamarca _95

España _95

Estonia _95

Finlandia _95

Francia _95

Reino Unido _95

Grecia _95

Hungria _95

Indonesia _95

India _95

Irlanda _95

Italia _95

Japón _95

Corea _95

Lituania _95

Luxemburgo _95

Latvia _95

México _95

Malta _95

Holanda _95

Polonia _95

Portugal _95

Rumania _95

Rusia _95

República Eslovaquia_95

Eslovenia _95

Suecia _95

Turquía _95

Taiwan _95

Estados Unidos _95

Doméstico Foráneo



Sector participation in the Domestic Value Added built in 2011 exports

Rangos: <



Sector participation in the Foreign value added embodied in exports 2011

Rangos: <



Countries participating in higher proportion inexports from third countries 2011 (composition

clusters.)



Anexo. APL 1995



APL 2011



Trade in value added 1995



Trade in value added 2011



Bibliography

* Dietzenbacher, E. and Romero, I. (2007): “ Production Chains in an InterregionalFramework: Identification by Means of Average Propagations Lengths” , InternationalRegional Science Review, 30, 362-383.

* Dietzenbacher, E.; Romero I. and Bosma, N.S. (2005): “Using Average PropagationLengths to Identify Production Chains in the Andalusian Economy ”, Estudios deEconomía Aplicada, 23, 405-422.

* Dietzenbacher, E.; Romero I. and G.J.D. Hewings (2009), “Fragmentation andcomplexity: Analyzing structural change in the Chicago regional economy” , Revista de

Economía Mundial, 23 (2009), 263-282.

* Robert Koopman and Zhi Wang (2012), “The Value-added Structure of Gross Exportsand Global Production Network “ , United States International Trade Commission, Paperfor Presentation at the Final WIOD Conference "Causes and Consequences ofGlobalization“, April 24-26, 2012, Groningen, the Netherlands

* Robert Koopman, William Powers, Zhi Wang, Shang-Jin Wei (2010), "Give CreditWhere Credit Is Due: Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains. “, NBERWorking Paper No. 16426. September.

* Koopman, Robert, Zhi Wang and Shang-jin Wei. (2012) “Estimating domestic contentin exports when processing trade is pervasive." Forthcoming, Journal of DevelopmentEconomics.

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