“smart use of electricityplatinum.mri.co.jp/sites/default/files/100526e8s.pdfin electricity fee....
TRANSCRIPT
e8 Tokyo Summit
“Smart Use of Electricity ”
Hiroshi KomiyamaChairman of the Institute of Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
President Emeritus at the University of Tokyo
May 26, 2010
1. 21st Century paradigm1. 21st Century paradigmIssues confronting Japan today (small land area, lack of resources, aging society) will apply to the entire world in 2050.
20thCentury
Infinite Earth
20001900
CO2
H2O
Chlorophyll
O2Sunlight
Carbohydrate CO2
H2O
Photosynthesis
Finite Earth
Explosion of knowledge
21stCentury
•Climate change•Resource depletion•Pollution•Food・Water…
Source: “Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world,” p.134
Aging society•Longevity•Low birthrate•Demand saturation •Pension•Medical care•Nursing care•Work sharing •Barrier-free …
http://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/seisaku/html/111a2.htm
2.2. Global Changes Over the Past CenturyGlobal Changes Over the Past Century
Global changes over the past century: Earth has shrunken
Global population
Energy consumption
100 mil. tonnes Production of the three major grains
CO2 concentrationSource: “Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world,” p.59
Source: “Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world,” p.59
Source: “Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world,” p.62
Source: “Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world,” p.61
3.3. Global Changes in the Coming CenturyGlobal Changes in the Coming Century
The coming century: Abundance of physical objects, advancement of global warming, scarcity of resources
Overview of “Earth” × “100 years”What will occur on Earth in the coming century and approximately40 years from now in 2050?
We are at a turning point in the paradigm
today“Finite Earth”
Saturation of man-made objects
Advancement of global warming
Scarcity of resources
4.4. Vision 2050 as a SolutionVision 2050 as a Solution
Fundamental Principles of Vision 2050
Three-fold increase in energy efficiency
Establishment of a material recycling system
Doubling of renewable energy resources
Vision 2050 is theoretically and technically appropriate, and can be achieved through
international consensus
(1) GDP = population ×per capita GDP
(2) Energy consumption per GDP (J / GDP $)
(3) CO2 emission per unit energy (kg-CO2/J)
(4) CO2(kg)
(1) GDP × (2) Energy intensity × (3) CO2 intensity = Total CO2 emission
(Size of economy)
(Energy efficiency)
(Low-carbon energy)
Energy efficiency increase
(heat pumps, electric vehicles, etc.)
Utilization of low-carbon
energy(renewable
energy sources, nuclear power,
etc.)
55--1.1. Achieving Vision 2050 (LowAchieving Vision 2050 (Low--carbon Society)carbon Society)
GDP Total CO2emission
Energy
GDP
CO2 emission
Energy
It is important to decrease CO2 emission per unit energy and increase energy efficiency.
55--2.2. Achieving Vision 2050Achieving Vision 2050○Power generation sector → Low-carbon power sources (nuclear power, renewable
energy sources)
○ Transportation sector → Plug-in hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles
○Residential and commercial sector → Solar power and other renewable energy sources, high-insulation architecture, energy-efficient appliances, electrification
○ Industrial sector → Natural gas boilers, replacement of boilers with heat pumps
Energy conservation through smart use of
electricity, dissemination of high-efficiency products
and electrificationHeat pumps, electric vehicles, etc.
Energy conservation Energy conservation through smart use of through smart use of
electricity, dissemination of electricity, dissemination of highhigh--efficiency products efficiency products
and electrificationand electrificationHeat pumps, electric vehicles, etc.
High-efficiency, low-carbon power systems
Utilization of nuclear power, expansion of renewable energy
use, etc.
HighHigh--efficiency, lowefficiency, low--carbon carbon power systemspower systems
Utilization of nuclear power, expansion of renewable energy
use, etc.
××
Reduction of primary energy consumptionRealization of a low-carbon society
Demand sideDemand sideSupply sideSupply side Smart Grid
Smart Smart GridGrid
66--1.1. Achieving ThreeAchieving Three--fold Increase in Energy fold Increase in Energy EfficiencyEfficiency
Electrification of transportation: Smart use of electricity
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
US/European vehiclesJapanese vehicles
Hybrid vehicles
Electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles
Theory is important Reduction of automobile energy consumption to 1/100.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
Fuel
con
sum
ptio
n [L
/km
]
Origin
0
Vehicle weight [kg]Data Source: Yahoo! Japan Autos Source: “Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world,” p.24
66--22..Achieving ThreeAchieving Three--fold Increase in Energy fold Increase in Energy EfficiencyEfficiency
• High-insulation architecture• Active utilization of energy-saving products (high-efficiency lighting (LED),
refrigerators, air conditioners (heat pump), etc.)
616
5258
10384
16240
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
2004年製
2000年製
1997年製
1991年製
2005年製との電気代差額(円)
Energy conservation: Smart use of electricity
Economic efficiency when old products are replaced with new products (CBT)
208
236
447
680
946.2
0 200 400 600 800 1000
2005年製
2004年製
2000年製
1997年製
1991年製
消費電力(kWh)
374
1188
1760
2156
1804
2750
3344
4466
6468
7392
9614
13794
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
2006年製
2005年製
2004年製
2003年製
2002年製
2001年製
2000年製
1999年製
1998年製
1997年製
1996年製
1995年製
2007年製との電気代差額(円)
865
882
919
945
963
947
990
1017
1068
1159
1201
1302
1492
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
2007年製
2006年製
2005年製
2004年製
2003年製
2002年製
2001年製
2000年製
1999年製
1998年製
1997年製
1996年製
1995年製
消費電力(kWh)
If a 1991 model refrigerator is replaced with a 2005 model that supposedly costs 100,000 yen, the new refrigerator will pay for itself in about 6 years through the difference in electricity fee.
Fig. Difference in annual electricity fee Fig. Power consumption of refrigerators
Fig. Power consumption of air conditioners
If a 1995 model air conditioner is replaced with a 2006 model that supposedly costs 100,000 yen, the new air conditioner will pay for itself in about 7 years through the difference in electricity fee.
Source: The Energy Conservation Center, Japan
Difference in electricity fee compared to a 2005 model (yen) Power consumption (kWh)
1991 model1997 model2000 model2004 model
1991 model1997 model2000 model2004 model2005 model
Power consumption (kWh)Difference in electricity fee compared to a 2007 model (yen)
Fig. Difference in annual electricity fee
Can be used for 10 yrs.
without replacement
~4 globes in 10 yrs.
~40 globes in 10 yrs.
Replacem
ent interval
40,000 hrs.10,000 hrs.1,000 hrs.
Estim
ated lifetime
~¥2~¥4~¥20
Electricity bill per
(charge)
24hrs.
LED Globe~40W
Fluorescent Globe~40W
Incandescent Globe40W
*When left switched on for 24 hrs/day with an electricity charge of ¥22/kWh
-Consume 1/10 energy of incandescent globe-40x lifespan of incandescent globe
66--3.3. Achieving ThreeAchieving Three--fold Increase in Energy fold Increase in Energy EfficiencyEfficiency
Electrification of cooling, heating, and water heating (heat pump): Smart use of electricity
66--4.4. Achieving ThreeAchieving Three--fold Increase in Energy fold Increase in Energy EfficiencyEfficiency
Energy consumption can be decreased by 50% and CO2 emission can be decreased by 80% in 2050, through dissemination of insulated houses, improvement of energy-saving performance of home appliances, electrification of heating and water heating, dissemination of next-generation vehicles, and dissemination of solar power generation.
(Calculation example in the case of Japan)Household energy consumption (homes, cars) Household CO2 emission (homes, cars)
Rea
l hou
seho
ld e
nerg
y co
nsum
ptio
n (P
J/ye
ar)
CO
2em
issi
on (k
t-CO
2/yea
r)
Cars
Year
Realizing eco households in 2050: Household energy consumption reduced to 1/2, household CO2 emission reduced to 1/5
the current levels
Reduced to 1/5
Source: Company estimatesYear
Cars
HomesReduced by half
Source: Company estimates
*Residential heat insulation, use of energy-saving appliances and electrification of homes
*Hybrid/electric vehicles
*Residential heat insulation & use of energy-saving appliances*Electrification of homes*Hybrid/EV*Solar power generation
HomesReduced by half
7.7. Example of EnergyExample of Energy--Efficient House Efficient House (Komiyama Eco(Komiyama Eco--House)House)Examples of household measures
Komiyama eco-house: 80% energy reduction through household and transportation measures
ⒸHiroshi Komiyama
Heat pump water heater: COP = 4
High insulation: K=1.6 W/m2K
New air conditioners
Hybrid car: 22.6 km/l
Solar power generation: 3.6 kW
80% energy reduction
88..COCO22 Reduction Potential in Daily LifeReduction Potential in Daily LifeSignificant effects through energy creation and conservation(Calculation example in the case of Japan)
CO2 reduction potential in daily life (household)
13.5% of total CO2 emission in Japan
Prepared by Komiyama based on assorted materials
Annually Market Scale Introduction Co₂ reduction (ton-CO₂/year)
Energy creation Solar power generation
Energy conservation
Insulation
High-efficiency HP air conditioner
Inverter lighting
High-efficiency HP water heater
Hybrid car
¥110 trillion
¥16 trillion
¥11 trillion
¥100 billion
¥30 trillion
¥60 trillion
46 million homes
70 million units
200 million units
46 million units
32 million units
75,000,000
6,410,000
27,000,000
2,300,000
25,000,000
50,000,000
99..Resolving the Initial Investment IssueResolving the Initial Investment IssueEnergy creation and conservation measures should be considered as investments. The issue of initial investments should be resolved by creative thinking.
Government
Target households of energy-saving
measures
Issuance of government bonds
Recovery of saved costs
Energy-saving measures
Advantages
Transfer to consumers after recovery of government bonds
Solar power generation 15-year bond
High-efficiency lighting 1-year bondResidential air conditioner 5-year bond
10-year bond
700 yen / unit-year
20,000 yen / unit-year
Hybrid car 5-year bond
150,000 yen / house-year
70,000 yen / unit-year
50,000 yen / unit-year
Window insulation 10-year bond 10,000 yen / house-year
Benefits after transferⒸHiroshi Komiyama
Mechanism of self-sustaining government bonds
High-efficiency HP water heater
1010..Specific ExampleSpecific Example
Collective purchase of solar
cells and nnerwindows
Self-sustaining “Eco House Prefectural Bond”
-Reducing CO₂ by disseminating solar cells and inner windows-
No cost burden to Aomori Prefecture or its residents!
Model Proposed by Dr. Hiroshi Komiyama
Issuance of self-sustaining “Eco House Prefectural Bonds” to install solar panels and inner windows in homes in Aomori Prefecture and
reduce CO₂
Solar Panels and Inner WindowsFundingGovernment
Ministries
Aomori Prefecture
Subsidies
Rate: 30%
Estimated 510 million yen
(under verification)
Solar Panel Manufacturer
Inner window manufacturer
Construction company
Purchasing products at low prices by placing large orders
Ex. In the case of 30% discounted off regular prices
Solar panels ¥940,000 x 1,000 homes = ¥940m
Inner insulation windows ¥590,000 x 1,000 homes = ¥590m
Total ¥1,530m
*Solar panels: Installation of 3kW panels, Window area: 30m²
Total amount: ¥1.02b
Bonds
Issuance of self-sustaining bonds
Collective purchase of solar panels and inner
windows
Installation of purchased solar panels on the roofs of
participating homeowners
Participating residents
Installation of solar panels and inner
windows in homes
Bonds purchasers
Self-sustaining bonds
Example of self-sustaining bond
Repayment of Bonds with the
amount of electricity sold to the electric utility
No. of years for repayment: 10 (bullet maturity)
*In the case of 4,000 kW/year solar power generation, purchasing price ¥26/kWh
Power sold by Aomori Pref.
No cost burden on prefecture
No cost burden on residents
•Provision of solar panel installation space (cells to be transferred to resident after repayment of bonds by prefecture.
•~40% reduction of heating costs by
11.11. Image of Ideal Future Society (Summary)Image of Ideal Future Society (Summary)
Demand side: Energy conservation through smart use of electricity, dissemination of
high-efficiency products and electrification (heat pumps, electric vehicles)
Demand side: Energy conservation through Demand side: Energy conservation through smart use of electricity, dissemination of smart use of electricity, dissemination of
highhigh--efficiency products and electrification efficiency products and electrification (heat pumps, electric vehicles)(heat pumps, electric vehicles)
Supply side: High-efficiency, low-carbon power systems
(nuclear power, renewable energy sources)
Supply side: HighSupply side: High--efficiency, lowefficiency, low--carbon carbon power systems power systems
(nuclear power, renewable energy sources)(nuclear power, renewable energy sources)
××
需要サイド需要サイド
Smart GridSmart GridSmart Grid
Society practicing smart usage of low-carbon power sources = reduction of primary energy consumption
Urban model Renewable energy/resource supply modelSolar power generation
Usage of LED lighting, natural light
High-efficiency air-conditioning system
High-efficiency heat sources such as heat pumps and fuel cells
Heat island countermeasures
New transportation systems
Compact citiesHeat diversion
High-density energy demand from advanced land utilization
Wind power generationBiomass generation
Next-generation bio-fuelsBTL (biomass to liquid)
Mega solar
Innovations for a low-carbon society
Creation of new industriesPlatinum Network
Eco-friendly, barrier-free, human development, employment
Development of comfortable communities in the 21st century
Realization of comfortable living environments
Measures for an aging society
Solar power generation
Electric vehicles
High-insulation homes
High-efficiency water heaters
Suburban model
Diversion of heat from heat-generating facilities (incineration plants) to residences
Creation of energy-efficient and
comfortable living environments
Greenhouses
Biogas from livestock waste
Heat supply
Solar power generation using idle land and barns
Production of resource crops using idle landBio-fuel production
Bio-material productionRural village model
Vegetable plant employing older people
© Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
12.12. Structuring of Knowledge (Summary 2) Structuring of Knowledge (Summary 2)
Action 1 for new smart use of electricity
Action 2 for new smart use of electricity
Segmented units of advanced and specialized knowledge should be assembled and re-integrated to address global-scale issues.
Action 1
Action 2Action 3
Action 4
Knowledge unit (1)
Knowledge unit (2)Knowledge unit (1)
Knowledge unit (3)