ANNUAL REPORT

OF THE

POPULATION STUDIES CENTER, THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

JULY 1, 1974 — JUNE 30, 1975

Lolagene C. Coombs, Editor

CONTENTS

Highlights

Introduction

Graduate Training

Special Training Programs

Basic Research

Doctoral Dissertations

Professional and P u b l i c Service A c t i v i t i e s

International A c t i v i t i e s

Conferences, C o l l o q u i a , Papers

Publications and Manuscripts i n Press

Appendix A F i n a n c i a l Assistance Provided f o r Graduate Students

Appendix B Population Studies Center S t a f f

Appendix C Former Population Studies Center Trainees Who Received A Ph.D. i n Sociology or Economics

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE ANNUAL REPORT

POPULATION STUDIES CENTER, THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

J u l y 1, 1974 - June 30, 1975

GRADUATE TRAINING

About f o r t y graduate students p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the Center's program at some time during the year.

Seven apprentices were i n the graduate program i n Economics, one i n the program conducted j o i n t l y by Sociology and S o c i a l Work, one from the Demography program of the London School of Economics, and twenty-six were Sociology students. One s p e c i a l non-degree student, one post­doctoral student and one Fulbright fellow also used Center f a c i l i t i e s .

Eleven of the t h i r t y - s i x apprentices received p a r t i a l or f u l l support from a source other than the Center's basic supporting grants from the Ford and Rockefeller Foundations.

Training opportunities were provided through the Center f o r students from Bangladesh, Canada, England, Japan, Malaysia, N i g e r i a , Pakistan, Taiwan, Turkey and the U.S. Under the supervision of a Center s t a f f member, one Sociology graduate student was i n Taiwan as a U n i v e r s i t y Overseas Population Intern, working with Chinese s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s at National Taiwan U n i v e r s i t y and the Academia S i n i c a .

BASIC RESEARCH

I n t e r r e l a t e d studies of population dynamics, p r i n c i p a l l y i n developing countries, have been c a r r i e d out i n a number of c u l t u r a l settings over a period of years. Among the topics investigated during the past year f o r Taiwan are: the desire for a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n as a predictor of l a t e r f e r t i l i t y ; the measurement and correlates of family composition preferences; contraceptive h i s t o r y and unwanted b i r t h s ; the r e l a t i o n of family structure, income, and female labor force p a r t i c i p a t i o n to f e r t i l ­i t y behavior; IUD use and l a t e r fecundity; and the r e l a t i o n of worker c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s to family planning program effectiveness. Comparative analyses of Turkish and Mexican studies i s continuing, with emphasis on the topics of women's r o l e s and f e r t i l i t y , s t r a t i f i c a t i o n , and population c l u s t e r i n g . Comparative work h i s t o r i e s i n Yokohama and Detroit are being used for analysis of inter-generational occupational m o b i l i t y . Family composition preferences have been investigated i n several d i f f e r e n t cul^-tures, both developing and developed.

Investigation of the causes and consequences of population d i f f e r ­e n t i a t i o n and segregation continues with analyses of: r e s i d e n t i a l segregation, the implications of r a c i a l segregation f o r school seg­regation, rural-urban t r a n s i t i o n and changes i n a g r i c u l t u r a l and land use patterns, state population composition and Equal Rights Amendment r a t i f i c a t i o n , i n t e r - r e g i o n a l migration i n Canada, and the measurement and implications of population c l u s t e r i n g .

Economic-demographic i n t e r a c t i o n s are being studied i n a number of settings and t h e o r e t i c a l models, i n c l u d i n g h i s t o r i c a l studies of p r e i n d u s t r i a l England, inheritance laws and 19th century French n u p t i a l i t y , s t o c h a s t i c time series models for studying r e l a t i o n ­ships between v a r i a b l e s , and analysis of time series implications of homeostatic population models. Other i n v e s t i g a t i o n s emphasize the economic and demographic conditions contributing to the value of c h i l d r e n i n peasant s o c i e t i e s , and the r e l a t i o n of economic-demo­graphic factors i n household decisions. Studies of women's r o l e s , work experience and earnings, and t h e i r r e l a t i o n to f e r t i l i t y i n the U.S., the changing socio-economic status of women and of blacks, e d u c a t i o n - a b i l i t y i n t e r a c t i o n and occupational attainment, and the development of new occupational prestige scores have been c a r r i e d on by several of the Center s t a f f .

A r e l a t i v e l y new emphasis on measurement issues and measurement errors has been evidenced i n research on interviewer e f f e c t s , measurement errors i n reports on aspirations and expectations, estimations of an event's occurrence based on reports from d i f f e r e n t sources, models f o r developing scales f o r family composition preferences, t h e o r e t i c a l ex­p l o r a t i o n of the meaning of "don't know" responses, examination of monotonicity i n survey a t t i t u d i n a l measures, and the development of a new computerized technique f o r determining scale f e a s i b i l i t y i n com­bining variables i n large scale studies. These i n v e s t i g a t i o n s u t i l i z e data from a number of countries and are p o t e n t i a l l y useful f o r demo­graphic research i n a v a r i e t y of s e t t i n g s .

DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS

Four d i s s e r t a t i o n projects i n Sociology were brought to completion during the 1974-75 year. The topics investigated include: the impact of m a r i t a l s t a b i l i t y on f e r t i l i t y ; changes i n s o c i a l class i d e n t i f i ­cation i n D e t r o i t ; c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of family planning f i e l d workers and job performance; economic status, resources, costs and tastes and t h e i r impact on f e r t i l i t y .

ASSISTANCE TO POPULATION STUDIES ABROAD

Eleven foreign students p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the apprenticeship program during 1974-75. In a d d i t i o n , two s p e c i a l status students from abroad spent the year at the Center.

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Faculty associates of the Center v i s i t e d Bangkok, Egypt, Hong Kong, India, London, and Taiwan to conduct studies, to a s s i s t i n v e s t i g a t o r s , and to f a m i l i a r i z e themselves with demographic work being c a r r i e d out by organizations i n the respective countries.

PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES QF STAFF

Some f o r t y - f i v e manuscripts w r i t t e n by associates of the Center were published or accepted f o r p u b l i c a t i o n during 1974-75.

Among the p r o f e s s i o n a l assignments undertaken by s t a f f members during the year were:

membership on committees advisory to the Bureau o f the Census, the National I n s t i t u t e s Of Health, the Population C o u n c i l , the U.S. N a t i o n a l

Survey o f Family Growth, the World F e r t i l i t y Survey, the National Advisory Council of the Center for Family Planning Program Development of the Department o f Health, Education and Welfare, the Governor's Commission On Higher Education i n Michigan, the Michigan Housing Authority, the Taiwan P r o v i n c i a l Department o f C i v i l A f f a i r s , the Taiwan P r o v i n c i a l Committee on Family Planning, the Hong Kong Family Planning A s s o c i a t i o n , the Center f o r Coordination of Research on S o c i a l Indicators, the Population D i v i s i o n o f the United Nations;

service as o f f i c e r s or committee members o f the International Union f o r the S c i e n t i f i c Study o f Population, the Population Association o f America, the Population Council, the American S o c i o l o g i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n , the S o c i a l Science Research Council, and the American S t a t i s t i c a l Associ­a t i o n ;

presentation o f some t h i r t y papers or lectures at s p e c i a l conferences, other u n i v e r s i t i e s , or p r o f e s s i o n a l meetings;

assistance i n reviewing manuscripts and i n the e d i t i n g o f the American Journal of Sociology, Demography, S o c i o l o g i c a l Methodology, S o c i o l o g i c a l Review, National Science Foundation, Econometrica, Quarterly Journal o f Economics, Journal o f the American S t a t i s t i c a l Association, S o c i a l Forces, Economic Development and C u l t u r a l Change, S o c i o l o g i c a l Inquiry, Land Economics, and the Journal of Human Resources.

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ANNUAL REPORT

POPULATION STUDIES CENTER, THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

J u l y 1, 1974 - June 30, 1975

The Population Studies Center, now completing i t s t h i r t e e n t h year of operation, has a program with three major emphases: graduate t r a i n i n g i n population studies; basic research on population w i t h i n a s o c i a l , s o c i a l psychological, economic, or e c o l o g i c a l framework; and assistance to demographic studies i n selected developing countries. Since i t s inception the Center has operated under basic supporting grants from the Ford Foundation. Since calendar 1971 a part of the basic support f o r Center a c t i v i t i e s also comes from a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation. S p e c i f i c research projects and s p e c i a l a c t i v i t i e s continue to be funded separately by various government agencies and p r i v a t e sources.

During the past year, Ronald Freedman, formerly Director and now an Associate Director of the Center, was elected to the National Academy of Sciences.

Professor Karol J . K r o t k i of the Department of Sociology, U n i v e r s i t y of A l b e r t a , Edmonton, Canada, was a v i s i t i n g professor f o r the 1974 F a l l and the 1975 Winter terms.

Andrei Stanoiu, on leave from the Sociology Department, Bucharest U n i v e r s i t y , Roumania, has been a F u l b r i g h t scholar at the Center during the past year.

John S. Parsons, a postdoctoral Population Council Fellow working at the Center during 1974-75, w i l l take a p o s i t i o n i n August 1975 as F i e l d Associate f o r the Population Council i n Mojokerto, Indonesia.

John Knodel i s j o i n i n g the Center s t a f f as a Research Associate i n J u l y 1975 and the Department of Sociology as Associate Professor i n September 1975. Previously Dr. Knodel has been a V i s i t i n g Professor at Brown U n i v e r s i t y and a F i e l d Representative f o r the Population Council i n Thailand. Deborah Freedman, an A s s i s t a n t Professor of Economics at the U n i v e r s i t y of Michigan, w i l l also j o i n the Center s t a f f as a Research Associate i n September 1975.

GRADUATE TRAINING

Each year the Center provides an opportunity f o r about t h i r t y graduate students to obtain on-the-job t r a i n i n g i n the conduct of demographic research. T h i r t y - s i x graduate students p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the Center's

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traineeship program at some time during 1974-75. Ten were nearing completion of the doctoral program and were' working on t h e i r d i s ­s e r t a t i o n research p r o j e c t s . Of the eleven students new to the Center program, s i x were j u s t beginning graduate study at Michigan; f i v e had begun t h e i r graduate study at Michigan e a r l i e r , but had not previously been associated with the Center's traineeship program.

Seven graduate student apprentices were i n the program i n Economics, one was i n the program conducted j o i n t l y by Sociology and S o c i a l Work, one was i n the Demography program at the London School of Economics, and twenty-six were Sociology students. In a d d i t i o n , one s p e c i a l non-degree student was a s s i s t e d by the Center, one Population Council post-doctoral scholar and one Fulbright Scholar were located at the Center f o r the year.

Eleven of the t h i r t y - s i x apprentices received p a r t i a l or f u l l support from a source other than the Center's basic supporting grants. The sources of support included fellowship programs administered through the Department of Sociology, fellowship programs of the National Science Foundation, the Population Council, and the Economic Demography program.

Support and Training

The basic supporting grants from the Ford and Rockefeller Foundations make possible the f l e x i b l e arrangements so e s s e n t i a l to an e f f e c t i v e t r a i n i n g program. The form of assistance provided trainees by the Center continues to depend on the stage of apprenticeship and the support a v a i l a b l e to the student from other sources. The d e t a i l e d report on the types of f i n a n c i a l assistance provided by the Center f o r apprentices during 1974-75, which appears as Appendix A, r e f l e c t s the d i f f e r i n g needs and resources of i n d i v i d u a l students.

In a d d i t i o n to assuring f i n a n c i a l support, the Center f a c i l i t a t e s the t r a i n i n g of graduate students by i n v o l v i n g them i n research projects housed at the Center. In the f i r s t two years of the traineeship, each student spends twelve hours each week working at the Center under the close supervision of a member of the professional s t a f f . By the t h i r d or fourth year, the student usually i s ready to devote f u l l time to the i n v e s t i g a t i o n to be reported i n a doctoral d i s s e r t a t i o n .

The students and members of the professional s t a f f p a r t i c i p a t e i n an informal weekly seminar at which a s t a f f member, an advanced student, or an occasional v i s i t o r reports on his current research a c t i v i t y . W. Mason and B. Moots coordinated the seminar i n 1974-75. The selected t i t l e s given below i l l u s t r a t e the range of topics covered.

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Demographic Constraints on Higher Education (D. Goldberg) The Relationship Between Income and F e r t i l i t y i n Taiwan

(E. Mueller) Research P o s s i b i l i t i e s for the World F e r t i l i t y Survey

(R. Freedman) Models of Change i n R e s i d e n t i a l Segregation: 1940-1970

(H. Winsborough) P o l i t i c a l A l i e n a t i o n i n America: 1952-1968 (W. Mason) Models f o r the Analysis of Inconsistant Reports from Two

Sources (A. Hermalin) The E f f e c t s of Community Level Variables on F e r t i l i t y i n

Taiwan (P. Pastor) Recent Change i n Women's Sex-role Attitudes (K. Mason) Population P o l i c y i n Canada (K. Krotki) Trends i n Socioeconomic Segregation: a Re-evaluation of

the Concept of Community (C. F l i n n ) R a c i a l Integration i n P u b l i c Schools, 1967-1972: Assessing

the E f f e c t s of Government Programs and L i t i g a t i o n (R. Farley)

Demographic Aspects of the Household Asset Function (A. Mason)

To extend the p r o f e s s i o n a l horizon of the t r a i n e e s , attendance at the annual meetings of the Population Association of America has been encouraged. During the year, a number of students gave papers at p r o f e s s i o n a l meetings.

Former Students

Upon completion of t h e i r t r a i n i n g at the Population Studies Center, the t y p i c a l pattern i n the past has been f o r students to accept a p o s i t i o n at an academic i n s t i t u t i o n . Changing emphasis on the salience of demography f o r many areas of research and p o l i c y making, however, has recently been r e f l e c t e d i n increased employment i n non-academic research p o s i t i o n s , both i n the United States and abroad. A l i s t of the 54 Center trainees r e c e i v i n g the Ph.D. i n Sociology or Economics since the Center's inception i n 1962 i s given i n Appendix C. The range of i n s t i t u t i o n s with which they are now a f f i l i a t e d gives an overview of the scope of preparation provided at the Center.

Modern m o b i l i t y complicates any attempt at a complete accounting of a l l students who have had t r a i n i n g at the Center. In a d d i t i o n to the Ph.D. degree r e c i p i e n t s l i s t e d i n Appendix C, many students from the U.S. and abroad have received Center t r a i n i n g . A l l together about 57 former trainees currently hold academic p o s i t i o n s at about 27 u n i ­v e r s i t i e s i n the United States and at 8 u n i v e r s i t i e s abroad. Another 46 are engaged i n research i n about 17 n a t i o n a l , 12 f o r e i g n , and 4 i n t e r n a t i o n a l organizations concerned with population issues, i n c l u d i n g :

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The Department of S t a t i s t i c s (Malaysia) Taiwan Committee on Family Planning

Population D i v i s i o n , ECAFE (Bangkok) East-West Population I n s t i t u t e The Population Council Food Research I n s t i t u t e (Stanford) National Center f o r Health S t a t i s t i c s World F e r t i l i t y Survey (London) Center f o r Disease Control (Atlanta) Department of S o c i a l Services (Lansing) Family Planning Association of Hong Kong Lincorp Research, Inc. (Michigan) U.S. Bureau of the Census M i n i s t e r i o de Trabaho y Comraunidades (Peru) CELADE National Center f o r Labor S t a t i s t i c s (Mexico) I n t e r n a t i o n a l Labor Organization (Geneva) Ciudad de los Periodistas (Madrid) The Urban I n s t i t u t e (Washington D.C.)

SPECIAL TRAINING PROGRAMS

The Center o f f e r s students three s p e c i a l t r a i n i n g programs. One i s d i r e c t e d by Center research associates M. Coble and A. Anderson. Two non-Center complementary programs are coordinated by f a c u l t y associates of the Center, L. Kish of the Survey Research Center, and R. Lee and E. Mueller, i n cooperation with the Economics Department.

Computer Training Program

Ten years ago, the Center i n i t i a t e d f o r students beginning an appren­t i c e s h i p i n the Center a s p e c i a l t r a i n i n g program i n the use of Mich­igan's e l e c t r o n i c computer for demographic research. In a series of one-hour noncredit t r a i n i n g sessions organized by M. Coble and A. Anderson, students learn basic computer techniques and are given the opportunity to f a m i l i a r i z e themselves with the Center's l i b r a r y of tapes and programs and t h e i r a p p l i c a t i o n to problems of population a n a l y s i s . Such t r a i n i n g i s required of a l l Center student trainees.

Sampling Program for Foreign S t a t i s t i c i a n s

L. Kish continues as d i r e c t o r of the Sampling Program f o r Foreign S t a t i s t i c i a n s , which i s housed i n the Survey Research Center of the I n s t i t u t e for S o c i a l Research. R. Freedman and A. Hermalin p a r t i c i ­pate as l e c t u r e r s . The program i s f o r s t a t i s t i c i a n s from under­developed countries who want to learn survey sampling methods f o r

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work i n t h e i r own countries. The intensive eight-week summer program accommodating about twenty fellows combines two courses i n sampling with a workshop i n sampling procedures. Each summer many graduate students i n demography or s t a t i s t i c s at other u n i v e r s i t i e s as w e l l as some Center students e n r o l l f o r t h i s program.

Economic Demography

A program i n Economic Demography, supported by a National I n s t i t u t e s of Health t r a i n i n g grant, i s c a r r i e d out i n cooperation with the Depart­ment of Economics. R. Lee and E. Mueller are the Center coordinators of t h i s program, which i s administered by the Department of Economics. Students i n economics interested i n demographic approaches to economic issues receive t r a i n i n g i n the use of demographic data and techniques through p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n the Center apprenticeship program and through taking appropriate courses i n population. During the past year seven such students received t r a i n i n g and p a r t i a l support from the Center.

BASIC RESEARCH

The Center organizes no c e n t r a l i z e d program of i n v e s t i g a t i o n . Consider­able research focuses on a number of social-demographic topics on which there i s extensive s t a f f i n t e r a c t i o n and c o l l a b o r a t i o n . The research projects undertaken by members of the professional s t a f f and the d i s ­s e r t a t i o n projects i n i t i a t e d by doctoral candidates, however, r e f l e c t t h e i r i n d i v i d u a l i n t e r e s t s w i t h i n the broad spectrum of population r e ­search. Under basic grants from the Ford and Rockefeller Foundations, the Center has f l e x i b i l i t y i n f a c i l i t a t i n g research a c t i v i t i e s i n a v a r i e t y of ways, but each large-scale project has been financed under a separate grant or contract f o r research. In the past year, i n d i v i d u a l research projects have been funded from a number of sources i n c l u d i n g major grants or contracts from the National I n s t i t u t e of C h i l d Health and Human Development, National I n s t i t u t e s of Health, and Health Re­sources Administration, World Bank, U.S. Agency f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development, National Science Foundation, S t a t i s t i c s Canada, and the National I n s t i t u t e of Mental Health. The major research a c t i v i t i e s of the p r o f e s s i o n a l s t a f f during 1974-75 are l i s t e d below.

POPULATION DYNAMICS IN TAIWAN

Members of the Center's professional s t a f f continued t h e i r close c o l l a b o r ­a t i v e and consulting r e l a t i o n s h i p s with various agencies i n Taiwan on a range of research t o p i c s . R. Freedman and A. Hermalin have been j o i n t l y responsible for the broad range of research and consulting a c t i v i t y i n Taiwan. L. Coombs and B. Moots have been senior research associates i n important aspects of t h i s work. E. Mueller of the Economics Department

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( i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h D. Preedman) c o n c e n t r a t e s on analyses o f Taiwan sample survey d a t a on economic-demographic i n t e r c o n n e c t i o n s .

Support f o r the analyses o f Taiwan p o p u l a t i o n dynamics a t the Center comes p r i m a r i l y from a grant from the Center f o r P o p u l a t i o n Research o f the N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e o f C h i l d H e a l t h and Development. The Pop­u l a t i o n C o u n c i l p r o v i d e s the p r i n c i p a l support f o r the Taiwan a g e n c i e s .

The broad o b j e c t i v e o f t h i s r e s e a r c h i s a c o n t i n u i n g study on a wide range o f t o p i c s r e l a t e d t o the demographic t r a n s i t i o n i n Taiwan, w i t h s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n t o f e r t i l i t y changes i n r e l a t i o n t o socioeconomic development and the f a m i l y p l a n n i n g program. S i n c e the p r o j e c t covers a g r e a t number o f r e l a t e d s u b p r o j e c t s , w i t h domestic and f o r e i g n c o l ­l a b o r a t o r s , the b r i e f r e p o r t s g i v e n below are s e l e c t i v e .

Family S t r u c t u r e and T r a d i t i o n a l F a m i l i a l Values i n Taiwan

R. Freedman, B. Moots, and T. H. Sun are u s i n g d a t a from the 1973 KAP-4 study t o a n a l y z e f a m i l i a l s t r u c t u r e and a t t i t u d e s . P r e l i m i n a r y r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e t h a t the p r e v a l e n c e o f households based on extended k i n s h i p has changed l i t t l e s i n c e the 1962 and 1967 s t u d i e s , d e s p i t e r a p i d economic development and demographic change. These s t u d i e s t a k e i n t o account the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f the p e r t i n e n t r e l a t i v e s f o r v a r i o u s forms o f extended household s t r u c t u r e . V e r t i c a l e x t e n s i o n i n v o l v i n g p a r e n t s and m a r r i e d sons remains a dominant p r i n c i p l e o f f a m i l i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n , w i t h i n t e r a c t i n g e f f e c t s on many o t h e r aspects o f f a m i l y l i f e . A v a r i e t y o f t r a d i t i o n a l f a m i l i a l a t t i t u d e s are a l s o b e i n g i n ­v e s t i g a t e d i n r e l a t i o n t o both f a m i l y s t r u c t u r e and r e p r o d u c t i v e b e h a v i o r . An important e a r l y f i n d i n g i s t h a t the h i g h l e v e l o f con­t r a c e p t i v e p r a c t i c e a t t a i n e d i n Taiwan i s found among both more and l e s s t r a d i t i o n a l c o u p l e s . However, the p r e f e r r e d number o f c h i l d r e n i s lower i n the h i g h e r s t a t u s and l e s s t r a d i t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n s t r a t a . Makoto Nohara has been a student t r a i n e e i n t h i s r e s e a r c h .

D e s i r e f o r A d d i t i o n a l C h i l d r e n and L a t e r F e r t i l i t y

The KAP survey conducted i n 1970 i n v o l v e d a r e i n t e r v i e w o f women pre­v i o u s l y i n t e r v i e w e d i n 1967. From these d a t a s e t s , R. Freedman and A. H e r m a l i n , i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h M. C. Chang, have e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t statements o f a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n d e s i r e d at the e a r l y date are h i g h l y p r e d i c t i v e o f f e r t i l i t y i n the subsequent t h r e e y e a r s . The women i n t e r ­viewed have been f o l l o w e d up i n the household r e g i s t e r through 1972 and a f u r t h e r e x t e n s i o n i s under way. A n a l y s i s o f the longer term p a t t e r n s o f f e r t i l i t y (1967-1972) i n d i c a t e c o n t i n u e d success by those who d e s i r e d no more c h i l d r e n i n 1967 t o a v o i d f u r t h e r b i r t h s . These d a t a are a l s o b e i n g used t o study t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between changes i n c o n t r a c e p t i v e p r a c t i c e s and changes i n d e s i r e d number o f c h i l d r e n .

The P r e f e r e n c e s o f Taiwanese Wives f o r Number and Sex o f C h i l d r e n

L. Coombs i s a n a l y z i n g the r e l a t i o n s h i p o f f a m i l y composition p r e f e r e n c e s :o a wide v a r i e t y o f demographic, s o c i a l , and p e r s o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f respondents i n the 1973 KAP-4 study. T h i s a n a l y s i s i s proceeding i n

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two phases. 1) The f i r s t emphasizes the demographic and socioeconomic " p r o f i l e s " o f women w i t h u n d e r l y i n g p r e f e r e n c e s (as measured by I - s c a l e v a l u e s i n the Coombs p r e f e r e n c e s c a l e s ) f o r s m a l l or l a r g e f a m i l i e s and f o r sons o r daughters. R e l a t i n g these measures t o the c o n v e n t i o n a l g l o b a l statement o f " i d e a l " f a m i l y s i z e r e v e a l s t h a t not o n l y are under­l y i n g p r e f e r e n c e s f r e q u e n t l y at v a r i a n c e w i t h g l o b a l statements, but they a r e more p r e d i c t i v e o f d e s i r e t o c o n t i n u e c h i l d b e a r i n g and o f the use o f c o n t r a c e p t i o n . T h i s a n a l y s i s i s n e a r i n g completion and a paper i s i n p r o g r e s s . 2) The second focus i s on a t t i t u d e s and v a l u e s which u n d e r l i e or ar.e s u p p o r t i v e o f p r e f e r e n c e d i f f e r e n c e s . A n a l y s i s underway i n d i c a t e s t h a t the I - s c a l e v a l u e s f o r number and gender p r e f e r e n c e are consonant w i t h a t t i t u d e s such as the importance o f having a male h e i r , duty t o have many c h i l d r e n , e x p e c t a t i o n s f o r c o - r e s i d e n c e and/or f i n a n ­c i a l support from sons, d e s i r e d number o f c h i l d r e n or sons f o r a daughter-i n - l a w to have, marriage arrangement p a t t e r n s and p r e f e r e n c e s r e g a r d i n g l i f e c y c l e t i m i n g . F u r t h e r a n a l y s i s w i l l i n c l u d e husband-wife r o l e s , f a t a l i s m v s . l i f e c o n t r o l , and o t h e r a t t i t u d i n a l measures. J . Rogers has worked as r e s e a r c h a s s i s t a n t and K a t h e r i n e Gaskin and M i c h a e l Koenig as student t r a i n e e s i n t h i s r e s e a r c h .

E v a l u a t i o n o f P l a n n i n g Programs through A r e a l A n a l y s i s

I n p r e v i o u s a n a l y s e s , A. Hermalin has demonstrated t h a t a u s e f u l method o f e v a l u a t i n g the e f f e c t o f a f a m i l y p l a n n i n g program i s through an a r e a l a n a l y s i s i n which l e v e l s o f f e r t i l i t y are r e g r e s s e d on f a m i l y p l a n n i n g i n p u t s and socio-economic v a r i a b l e s . The a n a l y s i s i s b e i n g updated i n two ways: d a t a through 1972 have been added, i n c l u d i n g new v a r i a b l e s about c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a c c e p t o r s ; and new methods o f a n a l y s i s , i n v o l v ­i n g the use o f unobserved v a r i a b l e s and c o n f i r m a t o r y f a c t o r a n a l y s i s , a r e being employed t o c l a r i f y the t h e o r e t i c a l s t r u c t u r e .

E s t i m a t i o n o f an Event's Occurrence from Reports from Two Sources

A. Hermalin c o n t i n u e d development and t e s t i n g o f a model f o r u t i l i z i n g r e p o r t s o f an event from two sources t o o b t a i n improved e s t i m a t e s o f the frequency o f the event's occurrence and the r e l a t i v e degree o f accuracy o f each source. The model has been a p p l i e d t o r e p o r t s o f con­t r a c e p t i v e use by husbands and wives i n Taiwan, Dacca, and I n d i a . Ap­p l i c a t i o n s t o o t h e r events and c o u n t r i e s are planned, and d i s c u s s i o n i s underway f o r use o f the technique i n connection w i t h the World F e r t i l i t y Survey. A r e p o r t o f t h i s work was made a t the annual meeting o f the P o p u l a t i o n A s s o c i a t i o n o f America, S e a t t l e , A p r i l 1975. S. E t t e r has served as r e s e a r c h a s s i s t a n t on t h i s p r o j e c t .

The R e l a t i o n between Income and F e r t i l i t y i n Taiwan

On the b a s i s o f the d a t a from the Economic C o r r e l a t e s o f F e r t i l i t y s u r v e y , E. M u e l l e r and R. Conn have s t u d i e d the r e l a t i o n between income and f e r t i l i t y i n Taiwan. A number o f a l t e r n a t i v e income measures were used i n an attempt t o c l a r i f y how income may i n f l u e n c e the demand f o r c h i l d r e n . Tne income measures i n c l u d e d c u r r e n t income, long term income, income change, r e l a c i v e income, and husband's income. F u r t h e r , an attempt was

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made t o i s o l a t e the "pure" income e f f e c t which remains a f t e r a l l o w ­ance i s made f o r the i n d i r e c t impact o f income on f e r t i l i t y v i a a t ­

t i t u d e change. Path models were employed f o r t h i s purpose, supple­mented by a two-stage l e a s t squares a n a l y s i s . T h i s r e s e a r c h does not p r o v i d e any evidence o f a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n between income and f e r t i l i t y . Rather, a m a r g i n a l n e g a t i v e r e l a t i o n between income and f e r t i l i t y i s d i m i n i s h e d when account i s taken o f the e f f e c t o f income on t a s t e s and a t t i t u d e s p e r t a i n i n g t o f a m i l y s i z e . The c o n c l u s i o n i s t h a t the amount o f money a f a m i l y has a v a i l a b l e f o r the support o f c h i l d r e n does not o f i t s e l f have an a p p r e c i a b l e e f f e c t on f a m i l y s i z e . A paper r e s u l t i n g from t h i s r e s e a r c h has been accepted by Economic Development and C u l t u r a l Change.

The Impact o f Female Labor Force P a r t i c i p a t i o n on F e r t i l i t y i n Taiwan

Barbara Devaney i s c o n t i n u i n g e a r l i e r work by E. M u e l l e r on the e f f e c t s o f female l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n on f e r t i l i t y i n Taiwan. The type and amount o f work r e p o r t e d by women i n 1969 and 1970 i s b e i n g r e l a t e d t o the f e r t i l i t y o f these same women i n the subsequent t h r e e years as o b t a i n e d from the P o p u l a t i o n R e g i s t e r . Use o f l o n g i t u d i n a l d a t a s h o u l d a l l e v i a t e some o f the problems o f s i m u l t a n e i t y which c o m p l i c a t e a n a l y s i s o f the w o r k - f e r t i l i t y r e l a t i o n s h i p . As h a v i n g o r not having a b i r t h i n t h r e e years i s a dichotomous dependent v a r i a b l e (very few women have more than one b i r t h ) , the d a t a are b e i n g s u b j e c t e d t o p r o b i t as w e l l as m u l t i p l e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s .

C o n t r a c e p t i v e H i s t o r i e s and Wanted and Unwanted B i r t h s

Mary Beth Weinberger, under the d i r e c t i o n o f A. Hermalin, i s c a r r y i n g out a n a l y s e s o f : 1) C o n t r a c e p t i v e h i s t o r i e s and the number o f wanted and unwanted p r e g n a n c i e s . R e s u l t s here i n d i c a t e t h a t a l a r g e pro­p o r t i o n o f women i n i t i a l l y s e l e c t a h i g h l y e f f e c t i v e c o n t r a c e p t i v e method, most o f t e n those made a v a i l a b l e by the program; over t i m e , some move t o s t e r i l i z a t i o n w h i l e o t h e r s adopt l e s s e f f e c t i v e methods. The s t e r i l i z a t i o n r a t e appears t o be a f u n c t i o n o f both the occurrence o f an unwanted b i r t h and the socioeconomic s t a t u s o f the couple. Women 35-39 r e t r o s p e c t i v e l y r e p o r t about 30 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r b i r t h s o c c u r r i n g a t these ages as unwanted a t the time o f pregnancy. 2) Comparison o f d i f f e r e n t measures o f unwanted b i r t h s i n d i c a t e s s i z a b l e d i f f e r e n c e s , w i t h the r e l a t i v e o r d e r i n g o f the measures q u i t e d i f f e r e n t i n Taiwan from those found i n the U.S. N a t i o n a l F e r t i l i t y Surveys. 3) R e l i ­a b i l i t y and v a l i d i t y o f the survey d a t a . IUD l i f e t a b l e t e r m i n a t i o n r a t e s c o n s t r u c t e d from r e p o r t s i n KAP-4 show c l o s e agreement w i t h those from separate IUD s t u d i e s . F e r t i l i t y r a t e s d e r i v e d from the d e t a i l e d pregnancy and b i r t h h i s t o r i e s c l o s e l y p a r a l l e l the r a t e s from the o f f i c i a l household r e g i s t e r .

Development o f A t t i t u d e S c a l e s

As i n c r e a s e d use o f p s y c h o l o g i c a l or a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e s occurs i n f e r t i l i t y s t u d i e s , the need t o c l a r i f y the measurement i s s u e s i n v o l v e d

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becomes more i m p o r t a n t . L. Coombs has been doing scalogram a n a l y s i s o f responses t o a t t i t u d i n a l q u e s t i o n s t h a t are f r e q u e n t l y combined i n an ad hoc manner, t o determine whether a common dimension does e x i s t , and whether s c a l e s can be developed. Using Taiwan d a t a , Guttman s c a l e s have been developed on a number o f a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i ­a b l e s which may be r e l a t e d t o f e r t i l i t y b e h a v i o r , i n c l u d i n g husband-w i f e r o l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s and d e c i s i o n making, p a r e n t - c h i l d d e c i s i o n making, a b o r t i o n a p p r o v a l , and f a t a l i s m v e r s u s l i f e - c o n t r o l approaches. (Catherine Gaskin has been a student t r a i n e e on t h i s r e s e a r c h .

IUD Use and L a t e r F e c u n d i t y

B. Moots and A. J a i n , o f the P o p u l a t i o n C o u n c i l , have been i n v e s t i ­g a t i n g the i n f l u e n c e o f IUD use on l a t e r f e c u n d i t y . T h i s work i s based on d a t a from the Taichung IUD Acceptance Study. The f i n a l round o f i n t e r v i e w i n g i n t h i s study was c a r r i e d out i n 1974. Data from the p r e v i o u s f i v e rounds c o n t i n u e t o be a n a l y z e d by a number o f s c h o l a r s p r e s e n t l y o r f o r m e r l y a t the Center. A paper summarizing some o f t h i s work was p r e s e n t e d by B. Moots a t the T h i r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l Conference on IUDs i n C a i r o , December 1974. In t h i s long-term s t u d y , c o n t r a c e p t i v e - p r e g n a n c y h i s t o r i e s o f 9 t o 11 y e a r s d u r a t i o n have now been accumulated. P l a n s f o r the coming year i n c l u d e the p r e p a r a t i o n o f a summary r e p o r t e v a l u a t i n g the e x p e r i e n c e and r e s u l t s o f t h i s unique study. F r a n c i s Osagie and M. K a h l i d S i d d i q u i have been as­s i s t a n t s i n t h i s r e s e a r c h .

IUD R e i n s e r t i o n and C o n t i n u a t i o n

E x c l u s i v e focus on the r a t h e r h i g h , f i r s t - s e g m e n t d i s c o n t i n u a t i o n r a t e s o f IUD leads t o n e e d l e s s pessimism about the amount o f IUD p r o ­t e c t i o n r e c e i v e d p e r a c c e p t o r . R. P o t t e r and B. Moots have extended the l i f e methodology t o cover r e i n s e r t i o n s as a f u n c t i o n o f d u r a t i o n from t e r m i n a t i o n o f f i r s t d e v i c e . Based on Taichung IUD f o l l o w - u p d a t a , i t i s found t h a t among women r e t a i n i n g an i n c e n t i v e t o p r a c t i c e c o n t r a c e p t i o n , the p r o p o r t i o n o f f i r s t - s e g m e n t t e r m i n a t o r s who event­u a l l y r e i n s e r t reaches w e l l over f i f t y p e r c e n t , many o f these women h a v i n g a r e i n s e r t i o n a f t e r e x p e r i e n c i n g pregnancy or a f t e r a p e r i o d w i t h o t h e r c o n t r a c e p t i v e s .

To e s t i m a t e b i r t h s a v e r t e d p e r acceptance o f c o n t r a c e p t i v e , one must make assumptions about c o n t i n u a t i o n , which means e x t r a p o l a t i n g beyond the one or two years o f c o n t i n u a t i o n as determined by l i f e t a b l e methods a p p l i e d t o the data o f a t y p i c a l f o l l o w - u p s t u d y . Four f u n c t i o n s — i n c l u d i n g the ones most commonly used and t h r e e new o n e s -a r e b e i n g compared by R. P o t t e r and P. K u l k a r n i on the b a s i s o f d a t a from the Taichung IUD Follow-up Study t h a t commands an e f f e c t i v e ob­s e r v a t i o n p e r i o d o f e i g h t y e a r s . T h i s unusual l e n g t h p e r m i t s one t o perform the experiment o f p r e t e n d i n g t h a t o b s e r v a t i o n l e n g t h i s one, two, f i v e years long and then compare r e s u l t s based on these v a r y i n g a b b r e v i a t e d spans t o those based on the f u l l o b s e r v a t i o n p e r i o d .

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S t u d i e s by C o l l a b o r a t i n g Researchers i n Taiwan i

In a d d i t i o n t o r e s e a r c h a l r e a d y c i t e d , c o n s i d e r a b l e work i s being done by s c h o l a r s i n Taiwan w i t h whom the Center has been c o o p e r a t i n g on the c o n t i n u i n g Taiwan p r o j e c t over the p a s t decade. Some o f t h e i r work i s l i s t e d below.

Cernada, G. and T. H. Sun, Knowledge i n t o A c t i o n : the Use o f Research i n Taiwan's Family P l a n n i n g Program, East-West Com­m u n i c a t i o n I n s t i t u t e Paper S e r i e s , No. 10, J u l y 1974 (37 p p . ) .

Chang, M., "An I n t e n s i v e Family P l a n n i n g Campaign and i t s I n c r e a s e i n C o n t r a c e p t i v e Use - A R e s u l t o f the Maximum Acceptance Study i n Taiwan," I n t e r i m Report, T-332, SR-86, Committee on F a m i l y P l a n n i n g , August 1974.

L u i , T., " F e r t i l i t y i n Taiwan A r e a , 1973," I n t e r i m Report, T-314, SR-83, Committee on Family P l a n n i n g , August 1974.

Sun, T., "The I n f l u e n c e o f P o p u l a t i o n Increase on Environment," ( i n C h i n e s e ) , Environmental S c i e n c e Newsletter,. V o l . 1, No. 2, December 1974, Tunghai U n i v e r s i t y .

Sun, T., "The Impact on F e r t i l i t y o f Taiwan's Family P l a n n i n g Program," Chapter 12 i n F e r t i l i t y E f f e c t s o f Family P l a n n i n g Programs: Methods o f Measurement, IUSSP 1975. An a b r i d g e d Chinese v e r s i o n a l s o appeared i n Economic Papers, 1 ( 2 ) : 85-145, Academia S i n i c a , September 1974.

Sun, T., "An I n t e n s i v e E f f o r t t o Reduce F e r t i l i t y i n Taoyuan County, Taiwan," I n d u s t r y o f Free C h i n a , 42(2): 6-15, August 1974.

Wang, C , "Family P l a n n i n g Program i n Taiwan A r e a , R e p u b l i c o f C h i n a , " paper p r e s e n t e d a t the Conference on P a r a s i t e C o n t r o l and F a m i l y P l a n n i n g , Tokyo, October 1974.

THE DISTRIBUTION AND DIFFERENTIATION OF POPULATION

S e v e r a l members o f the Center s t a f f are working on problems r e l a t e d t o p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n and d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n , u s i n g a v a r i e t y o f d a t a s e t s from U.S. and f o r e i g n s o u r c e s . Components o f the r e s e a r c h a r e funded by the N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e o f H e a l t h ' s Center f o r P o p u l a t i o n Research, the N a t i o n a l Science Foundation, and the R o c k e f e l l e r Foun-a t i o n . The purpose i s t o measure, decompose, and d e t e c t the conse­quences o f p o p u l a t i o n d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n and s e g r e g a t i o n .

Causes and Consequences o f P o p u l a t i o n S e g r e g a t i o n

R e s i d e n t i a l S e g r e g a t i o n i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Areas. R. F a r l e y , supported by a grant from the Center f o r P o p u l a t i o n Research o f the N a t i o n a l I n ­s t i t u t e s o f H e a l t h i s a n a l y z i n g f o r the n a t i o n ' s 25 l a r g e s t u r b a n i z e d

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areas d a t a taken from the Census o f 1970 and p a r t i c u l a r l y from the F o u r t h Count census tapes. The r e s e a r c h aims a r e : t o d e s c r i b e and account f o r c i t y - s u b u r b a n d i f f e r e n c e s i n r a c i a l c o m p o s i t i o n , t o a n a l y z e c i t y - s u b u r b a n d i f f e r e n c e s i n socioeconomic s t a t u s , and t o measure r e s i d e n t i a l s e g r e g a t i o n o f socioeconomic groups both w i t h i n c e n t r a l c i t i e s and suburban r i n g s . Separate analyses o f b l a c k and white communities show t h a t w i t h i n r a c i a l communities t h e r e i s mod­e r a t e socioeconomic s e g r e g a t i o n , w i t h l e v e l s no h i g h e r i n suburban r i n g s than i n the c e n t r a l c i t i e s . Socioeconomic s e g r e g a t i o n , how­e v e r , i s much l e s s extreme than r a c i a l s e g r e g a t i o n . The marked b l a c k - w h i t e s e g r e g a t i o n found i n a l l c i t i e s and suburban r i n g s i s e v i d e n t f o r the poor as w e l l as the r i c h and a p p a r e n t l y does not r e s u l t from economic f a c t o r s . M i c h a e l H i t c h c o c k has been a s s i s t i n g i n t h i s r e s e a r c h .

I m p l i c a t i o n s o f R a c i a l R e s i d e n t i a l S e g r e g a t i o n f o r School S e g r e g a t i o n . Elementary s c h o o l t r e n d s i n r a c i a l s e g r e g a t i o n and t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p t o r e s i d e n t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f b l a c k s and w h i t e s a r e b e i n g s t u d i e d by R. F a r l e y . In s p i t e o f the decrease i n r a c i a l s e g r e g a t i o n f o r the p a s t decade i n many d i s t r i c t s , c i t y - s u b u r b a n r a c i a l r e s i d e n t i a l d i f f e r e n c e s r e s u l t s i n segregated s c h o o l s ; e i t h e r r e s i d e n t i a l d e s e g r e g a t i o n or merging o f d i s t r i c t s are needed t o ac­complish s c h o o l i n t e g r a t i o n . While some "white f l i g h t " from the c e n t r a l c i t i e s has o c c u r r e d , i t i s not e v i d e n t t h a t d i s t r i c t s which i n t e g r a t e d t h e i r s c h o o l s between 1967 and 1972 l o s t w h i t e s t u d e n t s a t a h i g h e r r a t e than those which m a i n t a i n e d t h e i r segregated s c h o o l s .

The Measurement and I m p l i c a t i o n s o f P o p u l a t i o n C l u s t e r i n g . S e v e r a l problems w i t h c o n v e n t i o n a l s e g r e g a t i o n indexes have been Tecognized i n the l i t e r a t u r e , and new computer technology now makes p o s s i b l e the i n ­c o r p o r a t i o n o f measures o f d i s t a n c e by u t i l i z i n g p o p u l a t i o n p o t e n t i a l models. Using such models i n p r e l i m i n a r y a n a l y s i s o f d a t a from s e v e r a l c i t i e s i n the U.S. and i n LDCs, D. Goldberg and B. Moots suggest t h a t c o n v e n t i o n a l indexes f a i l t o d i s t i n g u i s h between contiguous p o p u l a t i o n c l u s t e r s (a ghetto) and s e g r e g a t i o n made up o f a s e r i e s o f c l u s t e r s (a m u l t i n u c l e a t e d s i t u a t i o n ) . T h i s c o n f u s i o n c o u l d l e a d t o m i s l e a d i n g c o r r e l a t i o n s between community c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and l e v e l s o f s e g r e g a t i o n . Arguments o f some e c o l o g i s t s t h a t d i s s i p a t i o n o f r e s i d e n t i a l c l u s t e r i n g r e s u l t s i n disappearance o f 'race' or ' c u l t u r e , 1 w i t h r e s u l t i n g homo-g e n i z a t i o n , are b e i n g examined w i t h d a t a from Ankara and Mexico C i t y . F u r t h e r work seeks t o r e l a t e "net e t h n i c e f f e c t s " t o the r e s i d e n t i a l s e g r e g a t i o n o f r a c i a l - e t h n i c groups. T h i s r e s e a r c h i s b e i n g funded by the R o c k e f e l l e r Foundation. A paper on the t o p i c was p r e s e n t e d a t the 1975 PAA meetings, and one d e a l i n g w i t h c l u s t e r i n g and f e r t i l i t y w i l l appear s h o r t l y i n a Resources f o r the Future volume on p o p u l a t i o n p o l i c y .

The T r a n s i t i o n o f Areas from R u r a l t o Urban

By v i r t u e o f the way Standard M e t r o p o l i t a n S t a t i s t i c a l Areas a r e d e f i n e d and e n l a r g e d , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o i d e n t i f y r e t r o s p e c t i v e l y c o h o r t s o f coun­t i e s which met v a r i o u s c r i t e r i a o f u r b a n i s m — p r i m a r i l y i n c l u s i o n i n an

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SMSA—at d i f f e r e n t p o i n t s i n t i m e , and t o t r a c e p r i o r and subse­quent developments i n them. P. S i e g e l i s e x p l o r i n g changes i n p o p u l a t i o n c o m p o s i t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n , changes i n land-use p a t ­t e r n s , and changes i n a g r i c u l t u r e . The l a t t e r i s r e l e v a n t t o a s s e s s i n g c l a i m s t h a t the spread o f urban areas removes our a b i l i t y t o f e e d the p o p u l a t i o n by removing from a g r i c u l t u r a l use the " b e s t " farm l a n d . A l s o o f i n t e r e s t are d i f f e r e n c e s i n the time path o f these changes f o r c o h o r t s o f c o u n t i e s which became urban i n d i f ­f e r e n t h i s t o r i c a l p e r i o d s . C h r i s t o p h e r F l i n n has been the student t r a i n e e on t h i s p r o j e c t *

i

P r e s t i g e i n the American O c c u p a t i o n a l S t r u c t u r e

P. S i e g e l i s d e v e l o p i n g o c c u p a t i o n a l p r e s t i g e scores f o r the 1970 o c c u p a t i o n a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n scheme, which was g r e a t l y m o d i f i e d by the Bureau o f the Census from t h e i r p r e v i o u s d e t a i l e d o c c u p a t i o n a l c a t e g o r i e s . E a r l i e r work by D. Duncan p r o v i d e d socioeconomic s t a t u s scores based on p r e s t i g e r a t i n g s from 1947-1950 Census d a t a , and S i e g e l p r o v i d e d r a t i n g s o b t a i n e d i n 1964 f o r the 1960 Census occu­p a t i o n a l c a t e g o r i e s . The p r e s e n t u p - d a t i n g , which w i l l appear as an appendix i n a monograph w i t h W. Hodge and P. R o s s i on the p l a c e o f p r e s t i g e i n the American o c c u p a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e , w i l l f a c i l i t a t e demographic-socioeconomic r e s e a r c h r e l a t e d t o p o p u l a t i o n d i f f e r e n t i ­a t i o n and o t h e r i s s u e s .

S t a t e Composition and the R a t i f i c a t i o n o f the Equal R i g h t s Amendment

W. Mason i s a s s e s s i n g the r e l e v a n c e o f s t a t e p o p u l a t i o n c o m p o s i t i o n and o t h e r f a c t o r s f o r the r a t i f i c a t i o n by s t a t e l e g i s l a t u r e s o f the Equal R i g h t s Amendment. The purpose o f t h i s r e s e a r c h i s t o e s t a b l i s h an i n t e r p r e t a b l e p r o b a b i l i t y f u n c t i o n t o e x p l a i n which s t a t e s have r a t i f i e d , or w i l l r a t i f y the Equal R i g h t s Amendment. E x p l a n a t o r y d i ­mensions i n c l u d e demographic and l a b o r - f o r c e c o m p o s i t i o n , s t a t e - s p e ­c i f i c l e g i s l a t i o n governing the c o n d i t i o n s o f women's work, and o t h e r dimensions b e a r i n g on the p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s . Robert Mare i s a student a s s i s t a n t i n t h i s work.

The Changing Socioeconomic L o c a t i o n o f B l a c k s and Women i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s

Research by W. Mason aims t o c h a r a c t e r i z e and e x p l a i n changes i n r a c e -sex s p e c i f i c d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n e d u c a t i o n , o c c u p a t i o n and e a r n i n g s , as Wwil i s o t h e r aspects o f socioeconomic s t a t u s . C u r r e n t l y under a n a l y s i s a r e r a c e - s e x s p e c i f i c d i f f e r e n t i a l s e s t i m a t e d from d e t a i l e d t a b u l a t i o n s f o r s t a t e s i n the d e c e n n i a l censuses o f 1940-1970. The i n n o v a t i o n o f t h i s a n a l y s i s i s t h a t the s t a t i s t i c a l model s i m u l t a n e o u s l y embraces both temporal and c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l v a r i a t i o n , and both i n d i v i d u a l and aggre­gate ( s t a t e ) l e v e l v a r i a t i o n . E x p l a n a t o r y dimensions i n c l u d e demo­g r a p h i c c o m p o s i t i o n , economic f a c t o r s , governmental a c t i v i t i e s intended t o a m e l i o r a t e r a c e and sex socioeconomic d i f f e r e n t i a l s , and c i v i l r i g h t s and equal r i g h t s a c t i v i t i e s — a l l o f these dimensions being measured s p e c i f i c t o y e a r and s t a t e . Robert Mare has been a student a s s i s t a n t i n t h i s work.

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I n t e r - R e g i o n a l M i g r a t i o n i n Canada

A study on the e d u c a t i o n a l and o c c u p a t i o n a l composition o f i n t e r ­r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n streams i n Canada, u s i n g 1971 Census d a t a , was completed by L. Stone. T h i s work i n c l u d e d the development o f modi­f i c a t i o n s i n e x i s t i n g techniques f o r the m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s o f contingency t a b l e s .

DATA REQUIREMENTS TO MAXIMIZE THE USEFULNESS OF HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS IN LDC FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Important household a c t i v i t i e s such as work, income g e n e r a t i o n , f e r ­t i l i t y , c h i l d c a r e , e d u c a t i o n , and m i g r a t i o n are i n t e r r e l a t e d . Recent economic t h e o r i e s and modem s t a t i s t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s , e s p e c i a l l y the techniques o f econometrics, o f f e r p r o m i s i n g means f o r d i s e n t a n g l i n g some o f these c o m p l i c a t e d i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s , p r o v i d e d s u i t a b l e d a t a are a v a i l a b l e . T h i s p r o j e c t , sponsored by AID and the World Bank, attempts t o develop two k i n d s o f q u e s t i o n n a i r e s . The f i r s t i s a standard package, c o n s i s t i n g o f b r i e f sequences o f p r o t o t y p e q u e s t i o n s about each o f a number o f household a c t i v i t i e s , which would be s u i t ­a b l e as an add-on t o more s p e c i a l i z e d household surveys. The second i s a s e t o f l o n g e r and more s e l f - c o n t a i n e d q u e s t i o n modules which c o u l d be used t o i n v e s t i g a t e s e l e c t e d types o f household a c t i v i t y i n g r e a t e r depth. E. M u e l l e r and D. Freedman are c o l l a b o r a t i n g i n t h i s work, a s s i s t e d by Roberta Barnes. They are p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t e r e s t e d i n new approaches t o the measurement o f time use and employment.

THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF CHILDREN IN PEASANT AGRICULTURE

E. M u e l l e r has been d e v e l o p i n g e s t i m a t e s o f the work c o n t r i b u t i o n i n peasant a g r i c u l t u r e o f men and women i n v a r i o u s age groups (from e a r l y c h i l d h o o d t o o l d age), and o f the consumption requirements o f these same age-sex groups. I n f o r m a t i o n from censuses and a v a r i e t y o f s u r ­veys have been p i e c e d t o g e t h e r i n an attempt t o e s t a b l i s h approximate v a l u e s f o r these p r o d u c t i o n and consumption p r o f i l e s . An aggregate model, suggested i n p a r t by Goran O h l i n , and a l i f e c y c l e model, sug­gested i n p a r t by Frank Lorimer, were then used t o e s t i m a t e the v a l u e o f c h i l d r e n from the n a t i o n a l p o i n t o f view and over the l i f e c y c l e from the peasant f a m i l y ' s p o i n t o f view. One purpose i s t o e v a l u a t e the c o n t e n t i o n t h a t i n peasant a g r i c u l t u r e c h i l d r e n have p o s i t i v e economic v a l u e which a c t s as b a r r i e r t o the acceptance o f f a m i l y l i m i t ­a t i o n . Another purpose i s t o determine what a d d i t i o n a l d a t a are needed t o measure v a r i a t i o n s i n the economic v a l u e o f c h i l d r e n and i t s impact on f e r t i l i t y . S t a n l e y Smith p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the r e s e a r c h . A paper on t h i s t o p i c was p r e s e n t e d at a conference on P o p u l a t i o n P o l i c y sponsored by Resources f o r the Future and w i l l be p u b l i s h e d i n a conference volume.

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AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF U.S. FERTILITY CHANGE, 1947 TO 1974

R. Lee i s i n v e s t i g a t i n g the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s o f f e r t i l i t y , p o p u l a t i o n s i z e and age s t r u c t u r e , and the age d i s t r i b u t i o n o f income i n the U.S., 1947 t o 1974. The emphasis i s on b u i l d i n g a c l o s e d growth model w i t h endogenous p o p u l a t i o n which may then be used f o r f o r e ­c a s t i n g . The p r o j e c t i s funded under a c o n t r a c t w i t h the N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e o f C h i l d H e a l t h and Human Development. M i c h a e l A r t h u r i s a s s i s t i n g i n t h i s work.

MEASUREMENT OF MODERNISM

The r e l a t i o n s h i p o f ownership o f consumer d u r a b l e s or modem ob­j e c t s t o use o f c o n t r a c e p t i o n and number o f c h i l d r e n wanted has been o f c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r e s t i n p a s t r e s e a r c h . During the p a s t y e a r , L. Coombs, C. H. Coombs and J . Lingoes have been d e v e l o p i n g and c o m p u t e r i z i n g a new; method o f s c a l i n g "modernism" as r e f l e c t e d i n such v a r i a b l e s , which w i l l p e r m i t c l e a r e r d e l i n e a t i o n o f the measures under s c r u t i n y and p r o v i d e a b e t t e r base f o r l a r g e sample s t u d i e s o f t h e i r p o s s i b l e impact on f e r t i l i t y and f e r t i l i t y r e l a t e d b e h a v i o r .

-FAMILY SIZE EXPECTATIONS AND PREFERENCES: FINDINGS FROM THE NATIONAL SURVEY OF FAMILY GROWTH-;CYCLE I

L. Coombs i s i n v e s t i g a t i n g a number o f i s s u e s on the r e l a t i o n s h i p o f e x p e c t a t i o n s and p r e f e r e n c e s f o r f a m i l y s i z e , u s i n g the d a t a from the 1973 U.S. N a t i o n a l Survey o f Family Growth. With support from the H e a l t h Resources A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , p r e l i m i n a r y tape development and ex­p l o r a t o r y work by L. Coombs i s b e i n g f o l l o w e d by d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s o f d a t a from a r e v i s e d tape on a number o f t o p i c s i n c l u d i n g : r e l a t i o n o f p r e f e r e n c e s c a l e v a l u e s t o range responses on e x p e c t a t i o n s or i n t e n t ­i o n s f o r f u t u r e c h i l d b e a r i n g ; d i s t r i b u t i o n o f number and sex p r e f ­erence s c a l e v a l u e s i n the U.S. p o p u l a t i o n and s e l e c t e d geographic, demographic and socioeconomic subgroups; t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p t o measures o f f i r s t p r e f e r e n c e , and assessment o f i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r f u t u r e f e r t i l i t y b e h a v i o r ; v a r i a t i o n among s i g n i f i c a n t subgroups i n how e x p e c t a t i o n s or p r e f e r e n c e s are r e l a t e d t o u n d e r l y i n g p r e f e r e n c e s t r u c t u r e ; and the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p o f p r e f e r e n c e s f o r number and f o r sex o f c h i l d r e n and t h e i r l i k e l y r e l a t i v e impact on r e p r o d u c t i v e goals and performance. J . Rogers and M i c h a e l Koenig have been a s s i s t i n g i n t h i s r e s e a r c h .

COMPARATIVE RESEARCH ON FAMILY COMPOSITION PREFERENCES

M e t h o d o l o g i c a l and s u b s t a n t i v e s t u d i e s o f the Coombs p r e f e r e n c e s c a l e s have been c a r r i e d out i n c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h r e s e a r c h e r s i n the P h i l i p p i n e s , M a l a y s i a , Korea, Taiwan, Hungary and the U.S. T h i s work has been under the d i r e c t i o n o f L. Coombs, i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h the IUSSP Subcommittee on Comparative F e r t i l i t y S t u d i e s , o f which R. Freedman i s chairman.

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t

A n a l y s i s has been c a r r i e d out and was p r e s e n t e d by L. Coombs a t a conference i n June, sponsored by the IUSSP and the East-West C e n t e r , and w i l l form the b a s i s f o r a p u b l i c a t i o n on the f e a s i b i l i t y and u s e f u l n e s s o f the s c a l e s . F u r t h e r a n a l y s i s o f s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t con­cerns the congruence o f p r e f e r e n c e s o f husband and wives i n M a l a y s i a , and o f b r i d e s and bridegrooms i n a sample o f newly m a r r i e d couples i n Hungary. The l a t t e r study i s t o be l o n g i t u d i n a l and i t i s expected t o r e l a t e the s c a l e p o s i t i o n s o f the couples a t marriage t o t h e i r l a t e r f e r t i l i t y . C. H. Coombs has been a c o l l a b o r a t o r i n the t e c h n i c a l a n a l ­y s i s and J . Rogers, K a t h e r i n e Gaskin and M i c h a e l Koenig have a s s i s t e d i n the p r o j e c t .

CHANGES IN SEX ROLE ATTITUDES AND DEFINITIONS

K. Mason's ongoing p r o j e c t , supported by a grant from the N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e o f Mental H e a l t h , has i n the p a s t year focused on r e c e n t change i n the s e x - r o l e a t t i t u d e s and d e f i n i t i o n s o f U.S. women. U s i n g a s e r i e s o f l o c a l and n a t i o n a l U.S. s u r v e y s , the p r o j e c t has a d j u s t e d women's responses s t a t i s t i c a l l y t o a s e t o f r e p l i c a t e d s e x - r o l e a t ­t i t u d e items i n order t o assess the d i r e c t i o n , degree and s t r u c t u r e o f r e c e n t change i n such a t t i t u d e s . The p r o j e c t has a l s o produced a hand­book o f s e x - r o l e a t t i t u d e items t h a t w i l l be d i s t r i b u t e d by NIMH. John C z a j k a i s a s t u d e n t t r a i n e e on t h i s r e s e a r c h .

SEX ROLES AND FERTILITY

D. Goldberg has shown t h a t measures o f women's r o l e s and a t t i t u d e s p r o ­duce s t r o n g net e f f e c t s on the f e r t i l i t y b e h a v i o r o f Mexican and T u r k i s h women. Recent p u b l i c a t i o n s attempt t o r e l a t e t h i s t o " f e r t i l i t y theo­r i e s " d e a l i n g w i t h m o d e r n i z a t i o n (World F e r t i l i t y Survey, O c c a s i o n a l Paper No. 14) and the microeconomic approach ( S o c i a l F o r c e s , September 1975). The r e s e a r c h i s b e i n g r e p l i c a t e d w i t h d a t a s e t s from the U.S. and Taiwan.

ECONOMIC-DEMOGRAPHIC INTERACTIONS IN PREINDUSTRIAL EUROPE

U s i n g econometric t e c h n i q u e s , R. Lee i s a n a l y z i n g economic-demographic i n t e r a c t i o n s i n p r e i n d u s t r i a l Europe, w i t h a p p l i c a t i o n s t o England. He i s c o l l a b o r a t i n g w i t h E. A. W r i g l e y and Roger S c h o f i e l d o f the Cambridge Group f o r the H i s t o r y o f P o p u l a t i o n and S o c i a l S t r u c t u r e on the a n a l y s i s o f aggregate time s e r i e s from a sample o f 404 E n g l i s h p a r i s h e s c o v e r i n g the p e r i o d 1538-1838. P h i l i p M i r o w s k i has been the student a s s i s t a n t i n t h i s work. A book w i t h W r i g l e y and S c h o f i e l d i s i n p r e p a r a t i o n . T h i s work i s now funded by a grant from the N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e o f Mental H e a l t h .

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INHERITANCE LAWS AND 19th CENTURY FRENCH NUPTIALITY

A. Hermalin, i n a c o l l a b o r a t i v e e f f o r t with E. Van de Walle of the U n i v e r s i t y of Pennsylvania, has been exploring the influence of the change i n inheritance laws i n 19th century France on l e v e l s of nup­t i a l i t y . Data from each of the departments are used i n an a r e a l m u l t i v a r i a t e analysis to study the r e l a t i o n between an area's t r a ­d i t i o n a l inheritance pattern and n u p t i a l i t y , while taking i n t o ac­count other demographic and socioeconomic f a c t o r s . Preliminary r e s u l t s were presented at the conference, Behavioral Models i n His­t o r i c a l Demography, i n P h i l a d e l p h i a , October 1974. S. E t t e r has a s s i s t e d i n t h i s a n a l y s i s .

STOCHASTIC MODELS FOR ANALYSIS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TIME SERIES

Using techniques of cross-spectral a n a l y s i s , R. Lee i s developing s t o c h a s t i c time series models of demographic variables mutually i n t e r a c t i n g , and i n t e r a c t i n g with economic v a r i a b l e s . Applications are i n the areas of forecasting of demographic time s e r i e s , analysis of incomplete data, study of r e l a t i o n s h i p s between v a r i a b l e s , and analysis of time series i m p l i c a t i o n s of homeostatic population models.

WOMEN'S LABOR-FORCE PARTICIPATION AND FERTILITY

K. Mason i s completing a monograph on a series of analyses intended to assess the extent to which aspects of U.S. women's employment influences t h e i r f e r t i l i t y behavior. A primary focus of the research i s determining whether economic or psychological incentives or rewards of married women's employment have unambiguous influence on the timing and number of b i r t h s . Jonathan Hodgdon i s a s s i s t i n g as a student trainee.

DETERMINANTS OF WOMEN'S EMPLOYMENT IN 1880

Working i n conjunction with Maris Vinovskis of the History Department, K. Mason i s analyzing 1880 U.S. Census data from Essex County, Massa­chusetts. The project i s concerned with describing the nature of female employment and occupations i n t h i s sample, and with analyzing the family socioeconomic determinants of female labor-force p a r t i c i p ­a t i o n .

COMPARATIVE WORK HISTORIES

Under a grant from the National Science Foundation, P. Siegel i s con­t i n u i n g the analysis of intra-generational occupational m o b i l i t y d i s ­played i n work h i s t o r i e s of males i n Detroit and Yokohama. Interest focuses on the r e l a t i o n s between the p r e s t i g e , income, and education

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and s k i l l requirements i n successive jobs and the extent to which suc­cessive jobs can be s a i d to constitute a career. Current e f f o r t i n ­volves examination of possible reasons why both the i n t e r - and i n t r a -f i r m rates of occupational m o b i l i t y are approximately twice as high i n Detroit as i n Yokohama, and the question of whether differences i n work h i s t o r i e s have any consequences f o r i n d i v i d u a l reports of t h e i r own job and l i f e s a t i s f a c t i o n . David Thompson has been a student trainee on t h i s p r o j e c t .

MEASUREMENT ERROR IN DEMOGRAPHIC AND NON-DEMOGRAPHIC DATA

I f one of the prime objectives of error assessment i s to " c o r r e c t " data to specify the " t r u e " r e l a t i o n s h i p among v a r i a b l e s , then the impact of interviewer e f f e c t s should be f u l l y explored. Attempts can be made to i d e n t i f y i n d i v i d u a l interviewer biases i n surveys, correct the data and explore the corrected r e l a t i o n s h i p s . D. Goldberg and P. S i e g e l have done preliminary work with demographic surveys i n Ankara , Mexico C i t y , and D e t r o i t . The objective i s to determine l e v e l s of error f o r d i f ­ferent types of questions and to see i f the uncorrected substantive r e l a t i o n s h i p s should be modified.

THE EFFECTS OF MEASUREMENT ERRORS IN MODELS OF THE PROCESS OF SOCIO­ECONOMIC ATTAINMENT

W. Mason i s analyzing models of the socioeconomic attainment process using m u l t i p l e i n d i c a t o r s of parental socioeconomic status. This re­search seeks to determine the consequences of errors i n measures of parental status on youthful aspirations and expectations. A paper i n press i s based on analysis of information c o l l e c t e d from Fort Wayne, Indiana youths. A second analysis applies i d e n t i c a l measurement e r r o r models to a number of d i f f e r e n t data sets to r e p l i c a t e r e s u l t s . J e n n i f e r Madans has been a student a s s i s t a n t i n t h i s work.

EDUCATION-ABILITY INTERACTIONS AND NONLINEARITIES IN THE PROCESS OF SOCIOECONOMIC ATTAINMENT

W. Mason i s conducting research which seeks to e s t a b l i s h whether the e f f e c t s of a b i l i t y on occupational attainment and earnings are the same f o r persons with d i f f e r e n t amounts of schooling. C o n f l i c t i n g r e ­s u l t s i n t h i s area of research appear to be due i n part to the nature of the samples used. A paper applying a common a n a l y t i c regime to various bodies of data i s i n process. John Talbot has been a student trainee i n t h i s work.

BIRTH-SPACING AND COLLEGE ENROLLMENT

Results from the study by D. Goldberg and A. Anderson of Michigan College Enrollment P r o j e c t i o n suggest that the current enrollment

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decline stems l a r g e l y from a family s i b l i n g squeeze or what might be c a l l e d the $50,000 mortgage with the seven year payment plan. The work i s being extended to U.S. data sets, analyzing the family economic enrollment squeeze f o r several subsets of the population, with concern centering on p o l i c y questions i n s o f a r as possible.

VARIATION IN THE MEANING OF STATED IDEAL FAMILY SIZE

The hypothesis that s i m i l a r statements about desired number of c h i l d r e n have d i f f e r e n t meanings f o r persons with d i f f e r e n t s o c i a l or economic backgrounds i s being examined by L. Coombs with the preference scale data from Taiwan, and s i m i l a r data from Detroit and the U.S. This analysis should throw further l i g h t on d i f f e r ­e n t i a l use of contraception and the r e l a t i o n s h i p of family s i z e desires to achieved f e r t i l i t y .

CULTURAL VARIATION IN INTER-CHILD DISTANCES

L. Coombs i s i n v e s t i g a t i n g v a r i a t i o n s i n psychological distances between b i r t h orders i n selected c u l t u r a l settings and i n s i g n i f ­i c a n t subgroups w i t h i n cultures. Using J scale analysis based on unfolding theory, e a r l y work by D. Goldberg and C. H. Coombs based on Detroit 1962 data indicated that the distance between the t h i r d and the fourth c h i l d , for example, varied considerably depending on the p a r i t y of the respondent. During the past year computerized techniques f o r determining Dominant J scales and Stochastic J scales have been developed by C. H. Coombs and J . Lingoes, permitting wider use of these methods. Tape preparation on data from Morocco ( c o l ­lected by R. Lapham) has been completed and preliminary work done on a reevaluation of the Detroit data. Comparative analyses w i l l be made by L. Coombs with data from Ankara and Mexico C i t y ( c o l ­lected by D. Goldberg) and from the 1973 National Survey of Family Growth. J . Rogers i s a s s i s t i n g i n t h i s work.

THE MEANING OF "DON'T KNOW" RESPONSES

Many of the a t t i t u d i n a l variables increasingly being incorporated i n t o f e r t i l i t y surveys y i e l d a considerable number of responses i n the "depends," or "don't know" category. L i t t l e t h e o r e t i c a l mea­surement consideration has been given to t h i s issue. The problem of what such responses r e a l l y mean and how they should be incorpo­rated i n a t t i t u d e measures i s being investigated from a psychological measurement point of view by L. Coombs and C. H. Coombs, using Taiwan data on a t t i t u d e toward abortion as an example. The findings have import f o r the handling of such responses i n a wide v a r i e t y of mea­sures and studies. A j o i n t p u b l i c a t i o n i s i n progress and a prelim­inary report on the research was presented by C. H. Coombs at the March meetings of the Psychometric Society.

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DIET AND THE GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS

D- Goldberg, working j o i n t l y with B. Agranoff of the Department of B i o l o g i c a l Chemistry, have been applying demographic-epidemioiogical methods to the t o p i c of the prevalence of multiple s c l e r o s i s . Using U.S. states and counties as u n i t s , they have found a p e r s i s t e n t re­l a t i o n s h i p of d i e t ( p a r t i c u l a r l y f a t s ) to M.S., while taking i n t o account several other v a r i a b l e s considered important by the medical profession. While s t i l l open to questions, the r e s u l t s are con­s i s t e n t with several animal laboratory findings and some question­able evidence from M.S. p a t i e n t s . A paper has been published i n The Lancet. A d d i t i o n a l epidemiological research i s being conducted with data from the Scandanavian countries, with the purpose of developing hypotheses s p e c i f i c enough to be tested i n the laboratory. James Walker, a student trainee, and Michael Hitchcock, a research a s s i s t a n t , have p a r t i c i p a t e d i n these e f f o r t s .

SOCIAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC POSITIONS, AND THE STABILITY AND IMPACT OF POLITICAL OPINIONS ON VOTING BEHAVIOR

W. Mason i s conducting research which seeks to determine the s t a b i l i t y of p o l i t i c a l opinions about common economic and s o c i a l problems and to assess the impact of these opinions on i n d i v i d u a l voting behavior. Previous research on t h i s topic has concluded, erroneously, that p o l i t i c a l opinions are so unstable as to have l i t t l e impact on the e l e c t o r a l process. Other research, which attempts to demonstrate that p o l i t i c a l opinions are s t a b l e , has over-estimated s t a b i l i t y by ignoring the s o c i a l and demographic p o s i t i o n s of i n d i v i d u a l s . The present r e ­search attempts to redress the balance by use of a more properly spec­i f i e d model which includes the e f f e c t s of these p o s i t i o n s . The model i s estimated using B r i t i s h and American e l e c t o r a l surveys.

THE STATUS OF FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS

In c o l l a b o r a t i o n with Dr. Bernard Berelson, R. Freedman i s preparing a monographic review of the current status of family planning pro­grams i n r e l a t i o n to o v e r a l l s t r a t e g i e s f o r development and population p o l i c y to lower b i r t h rates.

A LONGITUDINAL FIFTEEN-YEAR FERTILITY STUDY IN THE DETROIT METROPOLITAN AREA

A project i s underway to attempt to f i n d and reinterview the respon­dents who p a r t i c i p a t e d i n a l o n g i t u d i n a l f e r t i l i t y study during the period 1962-1966 of white, married Detroit women at selected p a r i t i e s . D. Freedman and A. Thornton are p r i n c i p a l i n v e s t i g a t o r s with L. Coombs and R. Freedman as consultants. This i s a j o i n t project with the Survey Research Center. Funding from the U n i v e r s i t y of Michigan-Ford Population Development Fund makes possible a f e a s i b i l i t y pretest to determine the p o s s i b i l i t i e s and problems i n reaching the o r i g i n a l respondents a f t e r a ten year period.

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DATA PROCESSING UNIT

M. Coble and A. Anderson are responsible for coordinating data processing at the Center and for i n s t r u c t i n g Center apprentices i n the use of the data processing and computing f a c i l i t i e s .

K. Richardson joined the programming s t a f f , replacing S. B i t t n e r . Richardson and R. Nylund provide programming and data processing support f o r the Center.

Programs have been developed during the past year to a s s i s t i n the analysis of a v a r i e t y of new data f i l e s . F i l e s acquired during the past year include: data on the r a c i a l composition of schools i n the United States for 1968, 1970, and 1972; selected data for Essex County, Massachusetts, from the 1880 U.S. Census; two data f i l e s from the National Longitudinal Surveys; the N.O.R.C. General S o c i a l Science Survey data; and h i s t o r i c a l v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s com­p i l e d from the records of English parishes. The l i b r a r y of programs supported at the Center i s being revised to accomodate recent changes made i n hardware and software at the U n i v e r s i t y Computing Center.

As i n the past, the programming s t a f f has consulted with and pro­vided p r o f e s s i o n a l services to researchers from several other i n s t i t u t i o n s .

DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS

Four d i s s e r t a t i o n projects were brought to completion during 1974-75 :

An Analysis of the F i e l d Workers' Performance i n Recruiting IUD Acceptors i n Taiwan

Charles H. C. Chen, a doctoral candidate i n Sociology, analyzed Taiwan family planning f i e l d workers' performance i n terms of the number of IUD cases r e c r u i t e d , i n r e l a t i o n to workers' c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s such as age, education, m a r i t a l status, the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the areas i n which they worked, and the methods of r e c r u i t i n g used, such as home v i s i t s , group meetings, etc. The data, mainly from f i e l d workers' monthly r e p o r t s , provide information on each worker's background, personal record, a c t i v i t i e s , and achievement. P o l i c y implications associated with the analysis are also being studied, with the aim of bringing about improvement i n the family planning program i n Taiwan. This study was done under the d i r e c t i o n of A. Hermalin. Dr. Chen i s now at the I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e of Rural Reconstruction i n the P h i l i p p i n e s .

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Income and Expected Family Size i n the United States

James C. Cramer, a doctoral student i n Sociology, used a l o n g i t u d i n a l data set from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics at the Survey Research Center, The U n i v e r s i t y of Michigan ( J . Morgan, p r i n c i p a l i n v e s t i g a t o r ) to t e s t c e n t r a l aspects of the widely discussed "new household econ­omics" theory of f e r t i l i t y , with e s s e n t i a l l y negative r e s u l t s . However, paradoxically there was some evidence that the theory might apply to lower status groups. Another c o n t r i b u t i o n of the thesis i s an e s t i ­mation of the e f f e c t s of having a baby on the earnings of the wife and the amount of time given to housework. R. Freedman was chairman of the d i s s e r t a t i o n committee.

Changes i n Subjective S o c i a l C l a s s . I d e n t i f i c a t i o n i n D e t r o i t Between the 1950*5 and 1971

Mark Evers, a doctoral student i n Sociology now a member of the Depart­ment of Sociology at Duke U n i v e r s i t y , completed h i s study of class i d e n t i f i c a t i o n based on data from the D e t r o i t Area Studies of 1953, 1956, 1957 and 1971. The research analyzed respondent class i d e n t i f ­i c a t i o n as a function of time, sex, race and several socioeconomic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The l o g - l i n e r framework f o r estimation was used throughout the a n a l y s i s . Although c e n t r a l findings i n the l i t e r a t u r e on class i d e n t i f i c a t i o n were r e p l i c a t e d , the study also obtained new r e s u l t s concerning the nonmonotonicity of r e l a t i o n s h i p s — r e s u l t s which were obtained through use of an estimation technique more adequate f o r the problem than those used i n previous research on class i d e n t i f i c a t i o n . The d i s s e r t a t i o n was done under the d i r e c t i o n of W. Mason.

M a r i t a l I n s t a b i l i t y and F e r t i l i t y

This research by Arland Thornton, a candidate i n Sociology, was p r i ­marily concerned with m a r i t a l d i s s o l u t i o n and remarriage. One focus of the study was the incidence and d i s t r i b u t i o n of these events i n the American population. The second focus was the r e l a t i o n s h i p s e x i s t i n g between these m a r i t a l processes and childbearing. The study was car­r i e d out using data from the National F e r t i l i t y Studies conducted i n the United States i n 1965 and 1970. The research was done under the supervision of A. Hermalin. Dr. Thornton i s now at the I n s t i t u t e f o r S o c i a l Research, U n i v e r s i t y of Michigan.

Six d i s s e r t a t i o n s approved i n an e a r l i e r year are i n progress:

Homemakers and Ghetto Dwellers: A Study of Home Ownership and Race

Ernest B. Attah, a doctoral candidate i n Sociology and a member of the Sociology Department at Brown U n i v e r s i t y , i s doing a study which, f i r s t ,

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examines h i s t o r i c a l trends i n home ownership by blacks and whites i n the United S t a t e s ; second, i n v e s t i g a t e s c o r r e l a t e s of home owner­

ship; and t h i r d , analyzes the i m p l i c a t i o n s of home ownership f o r the r e s i d e n t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of blacks i n the c i t y . The major data source i s the Decennial Censuses of Population and Housing. Case studies f o r selected metropolitan areas w i l l supplement the analyses f o r the United States as a whole. R. Farley i s chairman of the d i s -dertation committee.

I n e q u a l i t i e s i n the Educational Process at the School D i s t r i c t Level: Michigan, 1970

Robert I. K. Hastings, a doctoral candidate i n Sociology, i s i n v e s t i ­gating i n e q u a l i t y i n education. Using data from the Michigan Educa­t i o n a l Assessment Program and the 1970 Census of Population (Fourth Count), the study attempts to account f o r i n t e r - s c h o o l d i s t r i c t v a r i ­a t i o n i n scores on a state-wide achievement t e s t by reference to population and organization v a r i a b l e s . This study i s under the super­v i s i o n of P. S i e g e l .

The Correlates of Family Structure i n Taiwan

Robert K l e i n , a doctoral candidate i n Sociology now on the f a c u l t y of Fordham U n i v e r s i t y , i s conducting a study that examines correlates of family s t r u c t u r e , attempts to develop a m u l t i v a r i a t e model of demo­graphic and socioeconomic determinants of family s t r u c t u r e , and exam­ines changes i n family structure at two points i n time. M. White of the Sociology Department i s chairman and R. Freedman i s a member of h i s committee.

R a c i a l Segregation i n Urban School D i s t r i c t s : 1967, 1970, and 1972

This research of Margaret Nielsen, a candidate i n Sociology now on the s t a f f of SUNY at Buffalo, aims 1) to describe r a c i a l segregation i n the large p u b l i c school d i s t r i c t s of metropolitan United States, 2) to examine the demographic and socioeconomic correlates of r a c i a l segregation i n c i t y school d i s t r i c t s i n 1970 and to t e s t hypotheses about the e f f e c t s of p r i o r desegregation-oriented p o l i c i e s or a c t i o n s , and 3) to explore correlates of recent changes i n the r a c i a l segre­gation of c i t y school d i s t r i c t s and to assess the e f f e c t s of s p e c i f i c decisions or actions on changes i n school segregation. W. Mason serves on t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n committee.

Labor Force P a r t i c i p a t i o n and F e r t i l i t y

Linda Waite Stolzenberg, a doctoral candidate i n Sociology presently i n the Population D i v i s i o n , U.S. Bureau of the Census, i s analyzing

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the r e l a t i o n s h i p between labor force p a r t i c i p a t i o n of women and t h e i r f e r t i l i t y at various stages of the family l i f e c y c l e , taking i n t o account, where p o s s i b l e , better measures of the occupational and income status and h i s t o r y of the husband and wife. The data come from a l o n g i t u d i n a l study of D e t r o i t Family Growth. R. Freedman i s chairman of her committee.

Age at F i r s t Marriage: A Social-Psychological I n v e s t i g a t i o n of the Determinants of the Timing of Marriage i n the United States

Paul Voss, a doctoral candidate i n Sociology and now on the s t a f f of the Department of Sociology and The Roper P u b l i c Opinion Research Center, Williams College, i s i n v e s t i g a t i n g the s o c i a l - p s y c h o l o g i c a l aspects of the n u p t i a l process. The research u t i l i z e s data from a one-third random sample of Wisconsin high school seniors i n 1957 and a follow-up survey seven years l a t e r (W. H. Sewell, p r i n c i p a l i n v e s t i ­gator). Models which quantify the e f f e c t s of s o c i a l - s t r u c t u r a l and a t t i t u d i n a l factors on the timing of marriage are proposed. The study i s being done under the d i r e c t i o n of R. Farley.

Proposals were formally approved and considerable progress made during the current year on the f o l l o w i n g s i x d i s s e r t a t i o n s :

Religious F e r t i l i t y D i f f e r e n t i a l i n Lebanon

Joseph Chamie i s studying the r e l a t i o n s h i p of r e l i g i o n to f e r t i l i t y i n Lebanon, with data from the f i r s t National F e r t i l i t y and Family Planning Survey of Lebanon done i n 1971. The research aims are: 1) describing f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s and f e r t i l i t y c o n t r o l behavioT i n Lebanon, and 2) i n v e s t i g a t i n g r e l i g i o u s , m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r ­e n t i a l s . One key issue addressed i s whether r e l i g i o u s f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s can be explained i n terms of demographic, s o c i a l , and economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the couples. A theory i s proposed which maintains that the r e l i g i o u s e f f e c t i s dependent to a great extent on the r e l i g i o n s involved and the l e v e l of socioeconomic development. This research i s under the supervision of R. Freedman.

An Economic Analysis of the Young Adult's Decision to Form a House­hold Separate from the Parental Unit

Martha H i l l i s i n v e s t i g a t i n g decision making by young adults about separate household formation. Usin^ the U n i v e r s i t y of Michigan Survey Research Center Panel Study of Income Dynamics she i s analyzing the " s p l i t d e c i s i o n " of young adults by simultaneously analyzing four basic decisions facing young adults--the schooling d e c i s i o n , the de­c i s i o n to work f u l l - t i m e , the decision to marry, and the decision to form a household separate from the parental household. R. Lee i s supervisor of t h i s research.

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I

Religious Subcommunities i n D e t r o i t : S o c i a l Changes from the 1950's to the 1970's

An analysis by Robert Johnson employs a pooling of Detroit Area Studies ( s p e c i f i c a l l y the 1958, 1959, 1966 and 1971 studies) to draw inferences about the character of r e l i g i o u s change and i t s linkage to r e l i g i o u s subcommunities. Of s p e c i a l t h e o r e t i c a l importance are changes i n the extent of r e l i g i o u s homogamy i n marriages and f r i e n d s h i p s . In the causal analysis of r e l i g i o u s change, important substantive variables (e.g. educational at­tainment, s o c i a l and geographic o r i g i n s ) thought to be factors conditioning l e v e l s of involvement i n r e l i g i o u s subcommunities are introduced and causal models of the " s o c i o - r e l i g i o u s l i f e c y c l e " are tested. This research i s under the supervision of W. Mason. In the f a l l of 1975 R. Johnson w i l l be a member of the Sociology f a c u l t y at the U n i v e r s i t y of Colorado i n Boulder.

Models of Household S i z e , Saving, and Income: An Empirical Investigation

This i n v e s t i g a t i o n by Andrew Mason i s p r i m a r i l y an analysis of the e f f e c t of household composition and the number of c h i l d r e n on the l i f e t i m e income of each member and the t o t a l assets ac­cumulated by the household. A l i f e - c y c l e model adopted to con­s i d e r accumulation of assets i s tested using the National Longi­t u d i n a l Survey of Older Men. The survey was conducted between 1966 and 1971 and approximately 5,000 household heads were i n ­terviewed i n f i v e d i f f e r e n t years. This research i s under the d i r e c t i o n of W. H. L. Anderson of the Economics Department; R. Lee and K. Mason serve on the committee. Mr. Mason w i l l be on the s t a f f of the East-West Center Population I n s t i t u t e i n the F a l l , 1975.

E f f e c t s of Community Residence on F e r t i l i t y

P a t r i c i a Pastor's research involves an analysis of the a d d i t i v e and nonadditive e f f e c t s of community l e v e l v a r i a b l e s on the f e r t i l i t y of Taiwanese women. Of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t i s an as­sessment of the c o n t r i b u t i o n which the i n c l u s i o n of community c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s makes to the explanation of the f e r t i l i t y at­titudes and behavior of i n d i v i d u a l couples. The data f o r the study are three KAP surveys of married women i n Taiwan, inform­a t i o n about l o c a l areas from Taiwan's household r e g i s t e r and measures of the a c t i v i t i e s of the national family planning pro­gram i n various l o c a l communities. This research i s under the supervision of A. Hermalin.

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The I n t e r a c t i o n Between Female Labor Force P a r t i c i p a t i o n and F e r t i l i t y i n Mexico C i t y

Stanley Smith, a doctoral candidate i n Economics, i s formulating a model as a framework for studying the r e l a t i o n between women's work patterns and f e r t i l i t y . The model, which v i s u a l i z e s a j o i n t determination of labor force p a r t i c i p a t i o n and f e r t i l i t y decisions, w i l l be applied to data from Mexico C i t y . The research i s p a r t i c ­u l a r l y concerned with the degree of compatability between various kinds and durations of work on the one hand and childbearing on the other. Background economic and a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e s w i l l be em­ployed to explain the f e r t i l i t y - w o r k i n t e r a c t i o n . E. Mueller i s chairman of the d i s s e r t a t i o n committee.

PROFESSIONAL AND PUBLIC SERVICE ACTIVITIES

P r o f e s s i o n a l s t a f f members of the Center p a r t i c i p a t e i n a wide range of p r o f e s s i o n a l services and a c t i v i t i e s which contribute to the development of demographic research and p u b l i c p o l i c y decisions. Some of these a c t i v i t i e s are i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n scope and are l i s t e d i n the succeeding s e c t i o n ; others are professional contributions to U.S. a c t i v i t i e s . Some of the major p r o f e s s i o n a l and p u b l i c service assignments undertaken by s t a f f members during the year are l i s t e d below. These a c t i v i t i e s are r e l a t e d to ongoing Center a c t i v i t i e s , but are not part of the immediate U n i v e r s i t y assignments of the s t a f f .

Lolagene C. Coombs

Member, S c i e n t i f i c Review Panel on Research on the Regulation of F e r t i l i t y , National I n s t i t u t e s of P u b l i c Health, Department of Health, Education, and Welfare

Coordinator, Subcommittee on Comparative F e r t i l i t y A n a l y s i s , I n t e r n a t i o n a l Union for the S c i e n t i f i c Study of Population

Consultant, National Survey of Family Growth, National Center f o r Health S t a t i s t i c s , D i v i s i o n of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , Department of Health, Education, and Welfare

Technical Consultant, Panel on S t a t i s t i c a l Data Systems f o r Foundation of National Population P o l i c i e s , U.S. National Committee on V i t a l and Health S t a t i s t i c s , Washington, D.C.

E d i t o r i a l Consultant, Demography

Reynolds Farley

Member, Board of D i r e c t o r s , Publications Committee of the Population Association of America; Subcommittee on B i r t h and F e t a l Death C e r t i f i c a t e s of the Technical Consultant Panel on Content and Format Revision of Standard C e r t i f i c a t e s , U.S. P u b l i c Health Service; Advisory Board of Editors of the Journal of Human Resources; Committee on Population S t a t i s t i c s ; and the Advisory Committee on Population S t a t i s t i c s , U.S. Bureau of the Census

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Reynolds Farley (continued)

Associate E d i t o r , American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review Reviewer, American Journal of Sociology; Arnold Rose Monograph

Series; Demography; Explorations i n Economic History; S o c i a l Forces; S o c i o l o g i c a l Inquiry; S o c i o l o g i c a l Quarterly; Socio­l o g i c a l Focus

Ronald Freedman

Member, President's Study on Food and N u t r i t i o n ; National Academy of Sciences; Committee on Comparative F e r t i l i t y Analyses of the International Union for the S c i e n t i f i c Study of Population; Technical Advisory Committee and Consultant to the World F e r t i l i t y Study

Chairman, f o r 1975 of the International Advisory Committee of the Population I n s t i t u t e of the East-West Center

Consultant, Population Council; Ford Foundation; Acadmica S i n c i a , Taiwan; and the Committee on Family Planning of Taiwan

David Goldberg

Member, Board of D i r e c t o r s , Population Association of America; Fellowship Committee, Population Council

Consultant, World F e r t i l i t y Survey; Governor's Commission on Higher Education; Michigan Housing Authority

E d i t o r i a l Consultant, Land Economics

A l b e r t Hermalin

Member, Committee on Demographic Aspects of Family Planning Pro­grams, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Union f o r the S c i e n t i f i c Study of Population

Consultant to the Population D i v i s i o n , United Nations, f o r study on methods of measuring the impact of family planning programs

Technical Advisor to the Taiwan Committee on Family Planning, and to the Taiwan M i n i s t r y of I n t e r i o r on research a c t i v i t i e s

E d i t o r i a l Consultant,.American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review; Studies i n Family Planning; S o c i o l o g i c a l Methods and Research

Ronald Lee

Member, History Advisory Committee of the Mathematical S o c i a l Sciences Board

E d i t o r i a l Consultant, Journal of the American S t a t i s t i c a l Associ­ation; Demography; Explorations i n Economic History; Princeton U n i v e r s i t y Press; reviewed research proposals f o r NICHD and NSF

Karen Mason

Member, Secretary's Advisory Committee on Population A f f a i r s , Department of Health, Education, and Welfare; Population As­s o c i a t i o n of America Committee on the S e c r e t a r i a t ; American S o c i o l o g i c a l Association Committee on the Rights of Non-academic S o c i o l o g i s t s

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Karen Mason (continued)

Associate E d i t o r , S o c i o l o g i c a l Methods and Research Reviewer, National Science Foundation, National I n s t i t u t e of

Mental Health; Demography; American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review; American Journal of Sociology; S o c i o l o g i c a l Inquiry

William Mason

Advisory E d i t o r , S o c i o l o g i c a l Methodology E d i t o r i a l Consultant, American, Journal of Sociology; Demography;

Econometrica; Journal of Business; Journal of Human Resources; Journal of P o l i t i c a l Economy; S o c i a l Forces; S o c i a l Science Research

Eva Mueller

Member, Council of the American S t a t i s t i c a l Association Consultant, National I n s t i t u t e s of Health; World Bank E d i t o r i a l Consultant, Demography

Robert G. Potter

Member, Subcommittee on N u t r i t i o n and F e r t i l i t y , Committee on International N u t r i t i o n Programs, National Research Council

Paul S i e g e l

E d i t o r i a l Board, American Journal of Sociology E d i t o r i a l Reader, American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review; Science; S o c i a l

Forces

Leroy Stone

Member, Advisory Committee to the Center f o r Coordination of Research on S o c i a l Indicators, of the S o c i a l Science Research C o u n t i l

Elected President, Canadian Population Society

INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES

Of major importance i n the area of i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i s the Center's continuing t r a i n i n g of foreign students i n Ann Arbor. The terms of each award are arranged to make i t possible f o r the student to function e f f e c t i v e l y i n his t r a i n i n g program. Training oppor­t u n i t i e s were provided t h i s year for students from Bangladesh, England, Japan, Malaysia, N i g e r i a , Pakiston, Taiwan and Turkey. In a d d i t i o n , a Fulbright scholar from Roumania has been i n residence at the Center.

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The Center maintains close cooperation with the Sampling Program f o r Foreign S t a t i s t i c i a n s , d i r e c t e d by L. Kish of the U n i v e r s i t y of Michigan Survey Research Center. Each year intensive t r a i n i n g i n sampling i s given under the program to a group of twenty-five foreign s t a t i s t i c i a n s , i n c l u d i n g a majority who have a s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t . i n population.

Members of the Center's professional s t a f f have p a r t i c i p a t e d i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l conferences or a s s i s t e d i n v e s t i g a t o r s on population research i n several overseas areas. A l i s t of such a c t i v i t i e s occurring i n 1974-75 follows.

Bangkok

As a consultant to the World F e r t i l i t y Survey, R. Freedman v i s i t e d Bangkok i n June to consult on the analysis of the Thailand f e r ­t i l i t y survey.

B. Moots and R. Potter v i s i t e d Egypt to present papers and p a r t i c ­ipate i n the Third International Conference on Interuterine Contra­ception, i n Cairo, December 1974.

ESACP

R. Potter has been serving as consultant to the East and South A s i a Commission on Population p r o j e c t on the M u l t i - n a t i o n a l Study i n Methodologies f o r Setting Family Planning Targets i n the ESACP Region.

India

A. Hermalin has been consultant for Resources f o r the Future on a study to evaluate a f e r t i l i t y reduction i n c e n t i v e program i n oper­a t i o n on tea estates i n India.

Hong Kong

R. Freedman v i s i t e d Hong Kong i n June to discuss the recent a c t i v i t i e s i n the Hong Kong Family Planning Program and the Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s .

International Union for the S c i e n t i f i c Study of Population

A subgroup of the Comparative F e r t i l i t y Analysis Subcommittee has beer, involved i n comparative methodological and substantive studies using the CDombs preference scales ^ v a r i e t y of cultures. This work, d i r e c t e d by L. Coombs, has bee."- carried out by i n v e s t i g a t o r s

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i n Hungary, Korea, Malaysia, the P h i l i p p i n e s , Taiwan, Thailand, and the United States. A conference on the r e s u l t s was held i n Hawaii i n June 1975, hosted by the East-West Center with the co­operation of the IUSSP. C. H. Coombs also p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the conference. R. Freedman has been chairman of the IUSSP Subcom­mittee, was co-organizer with J . Palraore of the East-West Center, and a p a r t i c i p a n t i n the conference.

R. Freedman i s a member of the new IUSSP Committee on Comparative F e r t i l i t y A n a l y s i s , with primary r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r d r a f t i n g a working document on comparative analysis of the World F e r t i l i t y Survey data.

London

R. Freedman worked i n London i n the summers of 1974 and 1975 as consultant on the World F e r t i l i t y Survey. L. Kish v i s i t e d London i n October 1974 f o r a meeting of the Technical Advisory Committee of WFS, and i n May 1975, f o r consultation on the project on com­puting sampling errors for the f e r t i l i t y surveys.

Taiwan

R. Freedman v i s i t e d T a i p e i i n June 1975 f o r consultation with the D i v i s i o n on Census R e g i s t r a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s of the M i n i s t r y of the I n t e r i o r , and with the J o i n t Commission on Rural Reconstruction and other agencies. He also spent considerable time i n T a i p e i f o r consultation with the Taiwan Committee on Family Planning.

CONFERENCES, COLLOQUIA, PAPERS

f

Part of the p r o f e s s i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s of the Center s t a f f consists of p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n s p e c i a l conferences, g i v i n g c o l l o q u i a or r e ­search seminars at other u n i v e r s i t i e s , and the presentation of papers at p r o f e s s i o n a l meetings. P a r t i c i p a t i o n i n such a c t i v i t i e s during 1974-75 i s given below.

Lolagene C. Coombs

P a r t i c i p a t e d i n a conference on New Measures of Preference for Number and Sex of Children at the East-West Center, Honolulu, June 1975, and presented a paper on "Comparative Methodological and Substantive Findings f o r Six Cultures."

P a r t i c i p a t e d i n a conference on Research on Determinants of Sex Preferences sponsored by COMBEP (Committee f o r Comparative Behavioral Studies i n Population) and the East-West Population I n s t i t u t e i n Honolulu, June 1975.

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Organized and chaired a session on Family S i z e , Childspacing and Childlessness at the A p r i l 1975 PAA meetings i n S e a t t l e ,

Washington. Gave a colloquium on Models and Scales for Family Composition

Preferences at Cornell U n i v e r s i t y , November 1974. Organized and chaired a session at the University of Michigan

Conference on New (Research on Women, March 1975.

Reynolds Farley

Presented a paper " R e s i d e n t i a l Segregation and I t s Implications f o r School Segregation" at a conference on The Courts, S o c i a l Science and School Desegregation, sponsored by Duke U n i v e r s i t y and the Ford Foundation, August 1974.

Presented a paper "School Integration i n the 1960's: Assessing the E f f e c t s of Governmental P o l i c i e s , " at the meetings of the Society f o r the Study of S o c i a l Problems, Montreal, August 1974.

Presented a paper "Migration of Blacks and Socioeconomic Dif­ferences Between C i t i e s and Suburbs: 1970," at the annual meetings of the American S o c i o l o g i c a l Association, Montreal, September 1974.

Presented a paper " R a c i a l R e s i d e n t i a l Segregation: Recent Trends and Possible Causes," to the F l o r i d a State U n i v e r s i t y I n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y Program i n Urban Minority Problems, T a l l a ­hassee, May 14, 1975.

Organized a session on F e r t i l i t y , Theory and Methods, at the Population Association of America fs 1975 annual meetings i n S e a t t l e .

Ronald Freedman

P a r t i c i p a t e d i n the Resources for the Future Conference i n Washington, D.C, February 1975, and was a discussant i n the group on "Population P o l i c y from the Socio-Economic Perspective."

Gave a colloquium at the U n i v e r s i t y of North C a r o l i n a , Chapel H i l l i n March 1975, on the t o p i c of "Research P o t e n t i a l of the World F e r t i l i t y Survey."

P a r t i c i p a t e d i n the f i r s t meeting of the Food and N u t r i t i o n Committee of the National Academy of Sciences, c a l l e d at the request of President Ford, i n May 1975.

P a r t i c i p a t e d i n and was co-chairman of the Conference on Measure­ment of Preferences f o r Number and Sex of Children, at the Population I n s t i t u t e , East-West Center, Honolulu, i n June 1975.

David Goldberg

Presented a paper on " R e s i d e n t i a l Location and F e r t i l i t y Behavior," at the Resources for the Future Conference on Population P o l i c y , Washington, February 1975.

Presented a paper, "The Measurement and Implications of Population C l u s t e r i n g , " (with B. Moots), i n Seattle at the 1975 meetings of the Population Association of America.

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Gave c o l l o q u i a at the following u n i v e r s i t i e s : "Sex Roles and F e r t i l i t y Behavior," U n i v e r s i t y of Western

Ontario, London, Ontario, October 1974. "The Implications of Population C l u s t e r i n g , " University of

North C a r o l i n a , Chapel H i l l , February 1975. "The Measurement of Population Segregation," University of

Wisconsin, Madison, March 1975.

Albert Hermalin

Presented a paper, "Models f o r the Analysis of Inconsistent Reports of an Event from Two Sources—with A p p l i c a t i o n to the Accuracy of Husband-Wife Reports" at the annual meeting of the Population A s s o c i a t i o n of America, S e a t t l e , A p r i l 1975.

Presented a paper (with E. Van de Walle of the U n i v e r s i t y of Penn­s y l v a n i a ) , "The C i v i l Code and N u p t i a l i t y : Empirical I n v e s t i ­gation of an Hypothesis," and p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the conference, Behavioral Models i n H i s t o r i c a l Demography, P h i l a d e l p h i a , October 1974.

Ronald Lee

P a r t i c i p a t e d i n the Workshop on F e r t i l i t y and Household Behavior at the U n i v e r s i t y of Minnesota i n November 1974.

Co-organizer of the Mathematical S o c i a l Sciences Board Sponsored conference on Behavioral Models i n H i s t o r i c a l Demography, P h i l a ­delphia, October 1974; presented a paper on "Methods and Models f o r Analyzing H i s t o r i c a l Series of B i r t h s , Deaths and Marriages."

Karen Mason

P a r t i c i p a t e d i n a U n i v e r s i t y of Michigan conference on New Research on Women, March 1975.

P a r t i c i p a t e d i n a NICHD-sponsored conference on "Women's Roles and F e r t i l i t y , " February 1975.

Discussant and p a r t i c i p a n t i n the Workshop Conference on Occupational Segregation, Wellesley College, May 1975 (sponsored by the Com­mittee on the Status of Women i n the Economics Profession of the American Economic A s s o c i a t i o n ) .

Session Organizer, 1975 Annual Meetings of the Population Association of America, and of the American S o c i o l o g i c a l Association.

William Mason

P a r t i c i p a t e d i n a S o c i a l Science Research Council conference on the merits of constructing an econometric model of s o c i e t y , held i n Washington, D.C, i n October 1974.

P a r t i c i p a t e d i n a year-long Sex S t r a t i f i c a t i o n Seminar sponsored by the American S o c i o l o g i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n , and presented r e s u l t s from his work i n progress on the Equal Rights Amendment and on race-sex s p e c i f i c trends i n socioeconomic d i f f e r e n t i a l s at a meeting of the Seminar i n Chicago, June 1975.

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Baron Moots

Presented a paper "Factors A f f e c t i n g the Long-Term Impact of IUDs on F e r t i l i t y Control," at the Third International Conference on Intrauterine Contraception, Cairo, December 1974.

Eva Mueller

P a r t i c i p a t e d i n a conference on Population P o l i c y , sponsored by Resources f o r the Future, Washington, D.C., February 1975, and presented a paper on "The Economic Value of Children i n Peasant A g r i c u l t u r e . "

Robert Potter

Presented a paper "Reinsertion Rates: A C r i t i q u e , " at the Inter­national Conference on Intrauterine Contraception, Cairo, Arab Republic of Egypt, December 1974.

Paul Siegel

P a r t i c i p a t e d i n the NSF Mathematical S o c i a l Sciences Board Seminar on Measurement and Models i n S t r a t i f i c a t i o n and M o b i l i t y Research, Toronto, Canada, August 1974, and presented preliminary materials from the Detroit/Yokohama Comparative Work History Project.

David Thompson

Coauthor (with Robert Cole and Gary Saxonhouse) of a paper "Trends i n Employer-Changing i n Japan" presented by R. Cole at the Symposium on Education and Work Commitment i n Contempory Japan, of the Association f o r Asian Studies Seventeenth Annual Meeting, San Francisco, March 1975.

PUBLICATIONS AND MANUSCRIPTS IN PRESS

This l i s t i n g includes manuscripts vrritten by a member of the Center s t a f f or a student apprentice (as author or coauthor) that have been published or accepted f o r p u b l i c a t i o n since the l a s t annual report of the Center was issued.

L i s t i n g s of the Center r e p r i n t series and other a v a i l a b l e publications by the s t a f f were c i r c u l a t e d i n the f a l l of 1974 to about 800 i n d i v i ­duals and agencies working in-the population f i e l d or i n d i c a t i n g an i n t e r e s t i n demographic research.

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L. Coombs. (with R. Freedman, M. Chang, and T. Sun). Trends i n F e r t i l i t y , Family Size Preferences and P r a c t i c e of Family Planning: Taiwan, 1965-1973, Studies i n Family Planning, Vol. 4, No. 9, September 1974, 270-288.

. Cross C u l t u r a l Comparisons: Data on Two Factors i n F e r t i l i t y Behavior, Occasional Paper, Population Council, September 1974. (Prepared for the IUSSP Subcommittee on Comparative F e r t i l i t y A n a l y s i s , with R. Freedman.)

. The Measurement of Family Size Preferences and Subsequent F e r t i l i t y , Demography, V o l . 11, No. 4, November 1974, 586-611.

(with C. Coombs and G. McClelland). Preference Scales f o r Number and Sex of Children, Population Studies (forthcoming J u l y 1975).

. The Measurement of Family Composition Preferences, a paper presented at the Expert Group Meeting on S o c i a l and Psychological Aspects of F e r t i l i t y Behavior, Bangkok, June 1974 (forthcoming i n Asian Population Studies Series No. 26, 1975, U.N. Economic Commission f o r A s i a and the Far East, Bangkok, Thailand).

R. Farley. R a c i a l Integration i n the P u b l i c Schools, 1967 to 1972: Assessing the E f f e c t of Governmental P o l i c i e s , Socio­l o g i c a l Focus, Vol. 8, No. 1, January 1975, 3-26.

. Population Trends and School Segregation i n the D e t r o i t Metropolitan Area, Wayne Law Review, Vol. 21, No. 3, March 1975, 867-902.

. R e s i d e n t i a l Segregation and I t s Implications f o r School Integration (forthcoming i n Law and Contemporary Problems, 1975).

. Components of Suburban Population Growth (forthcoming i n a s p e c i a l p u b l i c a t i o n of the American Journal of Sociology devoted to the suburbs, 1975).

R. Freedman (with B. Berelson). The Human Population, S c i e n t i f i c American, Vol. 231, No. 3, September 1974, 31-39.

. Examples of Community-Level Questionnaires, Occasional Paper No. 9, World F e r t i l i t y Survey, Voorburg/The Hague, May 1974, 38 pp.

. The Sociology of Human F e r t i l i t y : An Annotated B i b l i o -graphy, New York: Irvington Publishers, Inc., 1975, iv+283 pp. (A Population Council Book.)

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I

. S o c i a l Research and Programs for Reducing B i r t h Rates, S o c i a l Science Research on Population and Development, (papers presented at a conference at the Ford Found­a t i o n , New York C i t y , October 29-30, 1974), New York: The Ford Foundation, 1975, pp. 23-48.

(with A. Hermalin and M. Cr Chang). Do Statements about Desired Family Size Predict F e r t i l i t y ? The Case of Taiwan, 1967-1970, Demography (forthcoming, August 1975).

D. Goldberg. Modernism: The Extensiveness of Women's Roles and A t t i t u d e s , International S t a t i s t i c a l I n s t i t u t e , World F e r t i l i t y Survey, Occasional Papers, No. 14, December 1974, 47 pp.

(with A. Anderson). Projections of Population and College Enrollment i n Michigan, 1970-2000, Governor's Commission on Higher Education, Lansing, 1974, 49 pp.

(with B. Agranoff). Diet and the Geographic D i s t r i b u t i o n of M u l t i p l e S c l e r o s i s , The Lancet, November 1974, 1061-1076.

. Residential Location and F e r t i l i t y (forthcoming i n the Resources f o r the Future volume on Population P o l i c y ) .

. Socioeconomic Theory and F e r t i l i t y : The Case of the L.D.C.'s (forthcoming i n S o c i a l Forces, V o l . 54, No. 1, September 1975).

A. Hermalin. ( e d i t o r with C. Chandrasekaran). Measuring the E f f e c t of Family Planning Programs on F e r t i l i t y ; authored chapter 8, "Regression Analysis of Areal Data" and the overview, chapter 13, International Union f o r the S c i ­e n t i f i c Study of Population (forthcoming).

. Empirical Research i n Taiwan on Factors Underlying Differences i n F e r t i l i t y , Studies i n Family Planning, Vol. 5, No. 10, October 1974, 314-324.

L. Kish (with R. M. Groves and K. K r o t k i , J r . ) . Sampling Errors f o r F e r t i l i t y Surveys, Occasional Paper, World F e r t i l i t y Survey (forthcoming, 1975).

. Representation, Randomization and Control, Chapter 9 i n Quantitative Sociology, H. Blalock, et a l . , Eds.), New York: Academic Press, 1975.

R. Lee. Natural F e r t i l i t y , Population Cycles, and the Spectral Analysis of Series of Births and Marriages, Journal of the American S t a t i s t i c a l Association, Vol. 70, No. 350, June 1975.

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1

. Methods and Models for Analyzing H i s t o r i c a l Series of B i r t h s , Deaths and Marriages (forthcoming i n the pro­ceedings of the conference on Behavioral Models i n H i s t o r i c a l Demography, held i n October 1974).

. Comment on A New Look at Some Old Data: The Beveridge Wheat Price Series (forthcoming i n the Journal of the Royal S t a t i s t i c a l Society, 1975).

J . Madans (with E. M. Beck). On the Relationship between F i r s t Occupation and Current Occupational Status, Sociology of Work and Occupation, V o l . 1, November 1974, 372-395.

K. Mason (with L. Burapass). U.S. Women's Sex-Role Ideology, 1970, American Journal of Sociology, V o l . 80, March 1975, 1212-1219.

W. Mason (with J . S. House). P o l i t i c a l A l i e n a t i o n i n America, 1952-1968, American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review, Vol. 40, No. 2, A p r i l 1975, 132-147.

(with R. Hauser, A. Kerckhoff, S. Poss, and K. Manton). Models of Response Error i n Student Reports of Parental Socioeconomic C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , Schooling and Achievement i n American Society, edited by W. Sewell, R. Hauser and D. Featherman, New York: Academic Press ( i n press).

B. Moots (with M. Chang). Long-Term Use of Contraceptives by IUD Acceptors i n Taichung, Taiwan, Studies i n Family Planning, June 1975.

. Factors A f f e c t i n g the Long-Term Impact of IUDs on F e r t i l i t y Control, Proceedings of International Con­ference on IUDs, December 1974 (forthcoming).

E, Mueller. The Economic Value of Children i n Peasant A g r i c u l t u r e (forthcoming i n Resources f o r the Future volume on Population P o l i c y ) .

(with R. Cohn). The Relation between Income and F e r t i l i t y i n Taiwan (forthcoming i n Economic Development and C u l t u r a l Change).

(with M. MacDonald). The Measurement of Income i n F e r t i l i t y Surveys i n Developing Countries, Studies i n Family Planning, Vol. 6, No. I, January 1975, 22-28.

R. Potter (with K. Ford and B. Moots). Competition between Spon­taneous and Induced Abortion, Demography, February 1975.

(with B. Moots). Reinsertion Rates: A C r i t i q u e , Pro­ceedings of the .International Conference on Interuterine Contraception, Cairo, December 1974 (forthcoming).

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( w i t h R. A v e r y ) . Models f o r S t u d y i n g U s e - E f f e c t i v e ­ness o f C o n t r a c e p t i o n , Measuring the E f f e c t o f Family P l a n n i n g Programmes on F e r t i l i t y , IUSSP, L i e g e , e d i t e d by A. Hermalin and C. Chandrasekaran ( f o r t h c o m i n g ) .

( w i t h S, Rao). Some Techniques o f Measuring the Impact o f C o n t r a c e p t i o n , A s i a n P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s S e r i e s No. 18, Economic and S o c i a l Commission f o r A s i a and the P a c i f i c , Bangkok, 1974, U n i t e d N a t i o n s E/CN.11/1119.

L. Stone. What We Know About M i g r a t i o n i n Canada, I n t e r n a t i o n a l M i g r a t i o n Review, V I I I , Summer 1974, 267-282.

. On the I n t e r a c t i o n o f M o b i l i t y Dimensions i n Theory o f M i g r a t i o n D e c i s i o n s , Canadian Review o f S o c i o l o g y and Anthropology, V o l . 12, February 1975, 95-100.

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APPENDIX A

CENTER FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE PROVIDED FOR GRADUATE STUDENTS, 1974-1975

„ _ . Number o f Students R e c e i v i n g A s s i s t a n c e Stage o f A p p r e n t i c e - I s h i p and Academic Term Any Form T u i t i o n S t i p e n d Other

A l l Students

T o t a l , 1974-1975 35 26 34 16 Summer h a l f - t e r m 18 14 15 11 U n i v e r s i t y year 29 22 27 4 S p r i n g h a l f - t e r m 15 12 13 4

F i r s t Year Students 10 7 10 3

C o n t i n u i n g Students 25 19 24 13

F o r e i g n Students

T o t a l , 1974-1975 10 8 9 6 Summer h a l f - t e r m 6 4 6 4 U n i v e r s i t y year 5 5 4 3 S p r i n g h a l f - t e r m 2 2 2 0

F i r s t Year S t u d e n t s 0 2 2 2 2

C o n t i n u i n g Students 8 6 7 4

American Students

T o t a l , 1974-1975 25 18 25 10 Summer h a l f - t e r m 12 10 9 7 U n i v e r s i t y year 24 17 23 1 S p r i n g h a l f - t e r m 13 10 11 4

F i r s t Year S t u d e n t s 0 8 5 8 1

C o n t i n u i n g Students 17 13 17 9

dumber o f students r e c e i v i n g f i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e from the P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s Center i n p e r i o d i n d i c a t e d ; numbers by p e r i o d or type o f a s s i s t a n c e are not a d d i t i v e because o f o v e r l a p .

^ D i r e c t expenditures f o r i n d i v i d u a l students', i n c l u d i n g some h o u r l y payments f o r work on Center p r o j e c t s and t r a v e l funds f o r s i x f o r e i g n s t u d e n t s . Excludes c o n s u l t a t i o n , p r o v i s i o n o f space, and use o f g e n e r a l f a c i l i t i e s .

c Students who were not a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the Center b e f o r e Summer, 1974.

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APPENDIX B

POPULATION STUDIES CENTER STAFF

1974 - 1975

D i r e c t o r

David Goldberg, P r o f e s s o r of S o c i o l o g y

A s s o c i a t e D i r e c t o r s

Reynolds F a r l e y , A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r of S o c i o l o g y Ronald Freedman, P r o f e s s o r of S o c i o l o g y A l b e r t I . Hermalin, A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r o f S o c i o l o g y P a u l M. S i e g e l , A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r of S o c i o l o g y

Research A s s o c i a t e s

A l b e r t Anderson, A s s i s t a n t Research S c i e n t i s t J . M i c h a e l Coble, A s s i s t a n t Research S c i e n t i s t Lolagene C. Coombs, A s s i s t a n t Research S c i e n t i s t Deborah Freedman, A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r of Economics L e s l i e K i s h , P r o f e s s o r of S o c i o l o g y , and Program D i r e c t o r ,

Survey Research Center John Knodel, A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r of S o c i o l o g y Ronald D. Lee, A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r of Economics Karen 0. Mason, A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r of S o c i o l o g y W i l l i a m M. Mason, A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r of S o c i o l o g y Baron Moots, A s s i s t a n t Research S c i e n t i s t Eva L. M u e l l e r , P r o f e s s o r of Economics Robert G. P o t t e r , V i s i t i n g Research A s s o c i a t e ( P r o f e s s o r , Brown U n i v e r s i t y ) Leroy 0. Stone, Adjunct A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r o f S o c i o l o g y ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada)

S u p p o r t i n g S t a f f

Helen L. Dempster, A d m i n i s t r a t i v e A s s o c i a t e Mary P. S c o t t , A d m i n i s t r a t i v e A s s i s t a n t R i c h a r d Nylund, Programmer K a r l i n R i c h a r d s o n , Programmer Susan E t t e r , Research A s s i s t a n t James Rogers, Research A s s i s t a n t L o i s Groesbeck, S e c r e t a r y - L i b r a r i a n B i l l i e Jo B u r t o n , S e c r e t a r y ( H a l f - t i m e ) C a r o l y n P. Copley, S e c r e t a r y C a r o l Crawford, S e c r e t a r y ( H a l f - t i m e ) Dorothy S t r a n d , S e c r e t a r y ( H a l f - t i m e ) C l a u d i a Canale, R e c e p t i o n i s t - C l e r k ( H a l f - t i m e ) C h a r l o t t e Smart, R e c e p t i o n i s t - C l e r k ( H a l f - t i m e )

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APPENDIX C

FORMER POPULATION STUDIES CENTER TRAINEES WHO RECEIVED A PH.D. IN SOCIOLOGY OR ECONOMICS

( C h r o n o l o g i c a l l y l i s t e d - 1962 to 1975)

K r i s h n a n Namboodiri P r o f e s s o r and Chairman ( S o c i o l o g y ) E d i t o r , Demography U n i v e r s i t y o f North C a r o l i n a

Tattamangalam R. B a l a k r i s h n a n P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) U n i v e r s i t y o f Western O n t a r i o

A l l a n F e l d t P r o f e s s o r (Urban and R e g i o n a l

P l a n n i n g , N a t u r a l Resources) The U n i v e r s i t y of M i c h i g a n

W i l l i a m Smit Department of S o c i o l o g y C a l v i n C o l l e g e

W i l l i a m F. P r a t t C h i e f , Family Growth Survey Branch N a t i o n a l Center f o r H e a l t h S t a t i s t i c s

P a r t h a S. Mohapatra S t a f f A s s o c i a t e ( P o p u l a t i o n D i v i s i o n ) ECAFE, S a l a Santitham, Bangkok

K o d a g a n a l l u r S r i k a n t a n S t a f f A s s o c i a t e The P o p u l a t i o n C o u n c i l

Roy C. Treadway S t a f f A s s o c i a t e T e c h n i c a l A s s i s t a n c e D i v i s i o n The P o p u l a t i o n C o u n c i l

Fred Campbell A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) U n i v e r s i t y of Washington

L a r r y L. Bumpass P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) and Research

A s s o c i a t e (Center f o r Demography and Ecology)

U n i v e r s i t y of W i s c o n s i n

P a t r i c i a R. Ferman A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) E a s t e r n M i c h i g a n U n i v e r s i t y

Robert M. Hauser P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) and Research A s s o c i a t e (Center f o r

Demography and Ecology) U n i v e r s i t y of W i s c o n s i n

Anrudh K. J a i n A s s i s t a n t D i r e c t o r ( B i o m e d i c a l D i v i s i o n ) The P o p u l a t i o n C o u n c i l

A l b e r t M. Marckwardt Demographer World F e r t i l i t y Survey ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c a l I n s t i t u t e )

W i l l i a m S. P o o l e r A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) Syracuse U n i v e r s i t y

A l l a n Schnaiberg A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) Northwestern U n i v e r s i t y

Te-Hsiung Sun E x e c u t i v e D i r e c t o r Committee on Family P l a n n i n g Taiwan P r o v i n c i a l H e a l t h Department

James A. Sweet A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) and D i r e c t o r (Center f o r Demography

and Ecology) U n i v e r s i t y of W i s c o n s i n

Solomon S. P. Chu A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y of New York a t B u f f a l o

David L. Featherman P r o f e s s o r and Chairman ( R u r a l S o c i o l o g y )

and Research A s s o c i a t e (Center f o r Demography and Ecology)

U n i v e r s i t y o f W i s c o n s i n

C h a r l e s R. Kindermann S t a t i s t i c i a n

U.S. Department o f J u s t i c e

Alden Speare

A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) Brown U n i v e r s i t y

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Jay I . S t a r k L i n c o r p Research, Inc. Ann A r b o r , Michigan

A r j u n L. Adlakha Research A s s o c i a t e (POP LAB) U n i v e r s i t y o f North C a r o l i n a

Greer L. Fox A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) Bowling Green S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y

J u d i t h L. Friedman A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r (Human Ecology) Cook C o l l e g e , Rutgers U n i v e r s i t y

Samuel R. Friedman A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) M o n t c l a i r S t a t e C o l l e g e

Robert Lapham C h i e f o f E v a l u a t i o n , MCH

F a m i l y P l a n n i n g Program The P o p u l a t i o n C o u n c i l

Baron L. Moots A s s i s t a n t Research S c i e n t i s t ( P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s Center) U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n

Bruce L. Warren A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) E a s t e r n M i c h i g a n U n i v e r s i t y

Gordon S. Bonham Survey S t a t i s t i c i a n Family Growth Survey Branch N a t i o n a l Center f o r H e a l t h S t a t i s t i c s

Eugene P. E r i c k s e n Head o f Sampling D i v i s i o n I n s t i t u t e f o r Survey Research Temple U n i v e r s i t y

Shea 0. R u t s t e i n SIEF Seminar D i r e c t o r CELADE S a n t i a g o , C h i l e

Fred A r n o l d S t a f f Researcher East-West P o p u l a t i o n I n s t i t u t e East-West Center, Hawaii

George K. J a r v i s

Associate Professor (Sociology) U n i v e r s i t y o f A l b e r t a Edmonton, A l b e r t a

A l l a n G r i s w o l d Johnson A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) Wesleyan U n i v e r s i t y

R i c h a r d B. Anker Economist I n t e r n a t i o n a l Labor O r g a n i z a t i o n Geneva, S w i t z e r l a n d

Paul M. H i r s c h A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) U n i v e r s i t y o f Chicago

Howard M. lams A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) Hope C o l l e g e

Paul K. C. L i u Economist I n s t i t u t e o f Economics Academia S i n i c a T a i p e i , Taiwan

Maurice M. MacDonald Research Economist I n s t i t u t e f o r Research on Poverty U n i v e r s i t y o f W i s c o n s i n

L o i s B. Shaw S t a f f Economist Gary Income Maintenance Experiment Gary, I n d i a n a

Ross S t o l z e n b e r g A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i a l R e l a t i o n s )

and Research A s s o c i a t e (Center f o r M e t r o p o l i t a n P l a n n i n g and Research)

Johns Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y

Boone A. T u r c h i A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r (Economics) U n i v e r s i t y o f North C a r o l i n a

John E l l i s Anderson Research A s s o c i a t e Center f o r Disease C o n t r o l A t l a n t a , G e o r g i a

Hsiao-Chang Chen I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e o f

R u r a l R e c o n s t r u c t i o n P h i l i p p i n e s

Hsan Z a f e r Dogan

Research A s s o c i a t e ( P o p u l a t i o n C o u n c i l ,

Yozgat Project) Ankara, Turkey

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Barry James Edmonston A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) and

Research A s s o c i a t e Pood Research I n s t i t u t e S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y

Mark Evers A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) Duke U n i v e r s i t y

E l i z a b e t h M. F i s c h e r A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) and

A s s o c i a t e D i r e c t o r ( S o c i a l Science Data L i b r a r y )

I n s t i t u t e f o r Research i n S o c i a l Science U n i v e r s i t y of North C a r o l i n a

John Leroy Goodman Research A s s o c i a t e The Urban I n s t i t u t e Washington, D.C.

L o i s Verbrugge A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r (School o f P u b l i c H e a l t h ) Johns Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y

James Cramer A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r ( S o c i o l o g y ) U n i v e r s i t y of C a l i f o r n i a , Davis

A r l a n d Thornton Research A s s o c i a t e Survey Research Center U n i v e r s i t y of M i c h i g a n

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