Analyzing risksThe Geopolitics of Land Degradation

Caux July 1st 2014

Luc GNACADJA

Caux Dialogue on Land & Security 2014

BiodiversityRisks & Threats in the 21st Century"Global biodiversity models project that terrestrial species extinctions, loss of natural habitat, and changes in the distribution and abundance of species, species groups and biomes will continue throughout this century, with land use change being the main threat in the short term, and climate change becoming progressively much more important over the next several decades.” 

Projections of 21st century change in biodiversity and associated ecosystem servicesSource: CBD , 2010)

Source: “Assessing Global Land Use: Balancing Consumption with Sustainable Supply” UNEP/IRP, 2014

Planetary BoundariesExpansion of global cropland till 2050:

Overshoot safe operating space

Land use change has transformed the Biosphere

Source: Jones (2011), from WBGU (2011)

World Population trends 1950-2050 (Medium variant)

Global land use is a key indicator of global sustainability and must be assessed & monitored

Source: Jones (2011), from WBGU (2011)

World Population trends 1950-2050 (Medium variant)

• The world might need additional cropland the size of Brazil by 2050

• The total additional land use demand in 2030 compare to land use in 2000 is 792 million ha in BAU scenario. (Source UNEP/IRP, 2014)

• Where will such expansion take place?

• Again over the remaining natural habitats while out there are more than 2 billion hectares of landscape that still hold potential for restoration?

Source: “Global Environmental Problems as a Risk to Security” German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2014

3 Conflicts Constellations

• Water Scarcity• Loss of Land• Food Insecurity

4 HotsSpots

• Sahel: Desertification & Drought• Middle East: Hydrological Water Scarcity &

Drought • Central Asia: Hydrolog. Water Scarcity &

Desertification• South & South East Asia: Tropical Cyclones

Hot spots of the security-related impacts of Climate Change and Desertification

Migration main trajectories

Drought Desertification Water Scarcity are major push factors for environmentally- induced migration

Migration Environment & Conflicts

Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU (2007)

Functionchange

or

Functiontradeoff

Use intensification Forest Grassland

1. Undisturbed

2. Extensive

3. Intensive

DEGRADATION Vs RESTORATION?It’s all about trade-offs

From trade-offs in Ecosystem functions towards Total degradation

Source: PBL 2009

Functionchange

or

Functiontradeoff

Degraded?

Use intensification Forest Grassland

1. Undisturbed

2. Extensive

3. Intensive

4. ..

DEGRADATION Vs RESTORATION?It’s all about trade-offs

10

2000

Potential

Soil factorNPP

FoodFiberWaterFloods

ClimateBiodiversity

2050

Business as usual

Future scenarios

0

Time

2010 2020 2030 20401990

Achieving a Land-Degradation Neutral World (LDNW) by 2030

Figure adapted from Ben Ten Brink, 2013

Prevention

RestorationLDNW

options

LDNW by 2030 = Same amount of biologically & economically productive land including soil and its ecosystem services as in 2000

Ongoing change

Historical change

Objectif:Operate Land use expansion on already degraded areas

Priorities:1. Prevent

degradation2. Restore

degraded areas

Conclusion

Quoting Aldo Leopold and Francis Bacon

‘We abuse land because we regard it as a commodity belonging to us.  When we see land as a community to which we belong, we may begin to use it with love and respect.’ 

‘We cannot command Nature except by obeying her.’ 

Thank you

OWG-12

Preliminary

List of SDGs

on June 16th 2014

Can’t see where

CONSERVATION

does’nt somehow qualify