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2014/ATCWG/013

Analysis and Mapping of Impacts under Climate Change for Adaptation and Food Security (AMICAF)

Activities in the Philippines

Purpose: Information Submitted by: Philippines

18th Agricultural Technical Cooperation Working Group Meeting

Beijing, China16 September 2014

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APEC Agricultural Technical Committee Working Group MeetingBeijing, China, 16 September 2014

AMICAF ACTIVITIESIN THE PHILIPPINESby Engr. Roy Abaya and Dir. Silvino Tejada

Department of Agriculture-Philippines

Introduction

AMICAF is a comprehensive framework by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations that aims to address climate change impacts and adaptation planning targeted at improving the food security of vulnerable household groups.

In the Philippines, the AMICAF framework is currently being implemented by the FAO in cooperation with the Philippine Department of Agriculture and partner agencies with funding from the Japanese government.

The Philippine activities started in January 2012 and will end on December 2014 for a 3-yr implementation.

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Step 1: Impacts of climate change on agriculture

MOSAICC – Modeling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change

Multiple impact models (Climate downscaling, Crops, Hydrology, Economy) in one package

Software plus training

Newly developed Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Market or PAM (Provincial Agricultural Model) is used in addition to MOSAICC’s climate downscaling, crop and hydrology modules

Climate projectionsdownscaling

Historical weatherrecords

Downscaled Climate projections

Hydrological Model

Crop growth Simulation

IPCC GCMLow resolution

projections

Historical dischargerecords

Water availabilityfor irrigation

Historical water usestatistics

Historical Yield records

Yield projections

Crop parameters

Soil data

Technology trend scenarios

Soil and Land usedata

Dam data

Provincial AgriculturalMarket Impact

Step2 (Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis)

Provincial AgriculturalModel (PAM)

Partners: PAGASA, UP-NIGS, PhilRice, NEDA

Summary for Precipitation ( A1B, A2 scenarios; BCM2, CNCM3, ECHMA5 models) for 2011-2040

AIB: 6-20%, A2: 3-14%, lowest in RR in eastern Philippines

Except for some Region 1 and CARAGA (BCM2), all parts of the country will become wetter under A1B

Region 1 will further become drier particularly in MAM and JJA season

MAM and JJA will become particularly wetter under BCM2 and CNCM3 in most of Luzon and eastern Philippines

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Summary for Temperature (2011-2040)

All parts of the country will experience increase in temperature under A1B and A2 especially in urban areas

for both A1B and A2, range of increase: 0.3°C – 0.5°C; highest in NCR

greater warming under CNCM3 followed by BCM2 and MPEH5

Number of Days with Extreme 24-hour Rainfall (2011-2040) and Corresponding Station using MPEH5 STATION 20C3M A1B A2 VIGAN 94 250 236ITBAYAT 96 115 106CATARMAN 101 171 157

VIRAC RADAR 107 146 180DAET 114 181 169BAGUIO 140 347 317INFANTA 151 213 228IBA 182 353 338CASIGURAN 190 277 285HINATUAN 193 281 260

*Extreme daily rainfall are events defined as days with >100 mm of rainfall with each occurrence counted as one event

Number of Dry Days* (2011-2040) and Corresponding Station using MPEH5

RANK STATION 20C3M A1B A2

10 SCIENCE GARDEN 93 139 127

9PORT AREA (MCO) 97 137 136

8 LAOAG CITY 99 133 157

7 PUERTO PRINCESA 100 114 123

6 SANGLEY POINT 105 173 152

5 IBA 107 162 156

4 CLSU 109 149 167

3 CABANATUAN 111 127 147

2 DAGUPAN CITY 112 141 147

1 SAN JOSE 115 169 171

*Dry days are events defined as 5 consecutive days with <1mm of daily rainfall with each occurrence counted as one event

PAGASA’s Key Findings and Next Steps

Greater rainfall will be experienced from 3-20% increase;

Rainfall will increase the least in eastern Philippines;

NCR and neighboring provinces will have higher increase in temperature by 2040 by as much as 0.5°C in March, April, May

Way forward: -Downscaling under CMIP5 & RCPs -Analysis of extreme events

including tropical cyclones

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Step 1: Hydrology modeling using STREAM modelPartner: UP-NIGS

The goal is to determine whether discharge in rivers, the primary source of water for irrigation, will be affected by climate change

Using two global climate models (A1B and A2), most basins show an increasing trend in annual discharge, but the increase is mainly during the wet season.

Annual variability is increasing.

Summer months will have a decrease in discharge, with definite decrease in future MAM discharge: Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Leyte, Zamboanga, Sultan Kudarat

Step 1: Crop Modeling using WABAL model(Partner: PhilRice)

For irrigated s1 rice crop model –important variables are ETA 2, min. temp

For rainfed rice crop model – important variables are ETA in diff growth stages, rainfall, solar radiation

Climate change yield signals under MPEH is statistically higher than CNCM3 at least for rainfed rice

Climate change yield signals for A2 is not statistically significant with A1B, either under MPEH or CNCM3

Changes in climatology can result in lower yield in some provinces, but higher in others MPEH: Irrigated Rice S1(A2-20C3M)

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Develops an analytical econometrics model with the best available national household datasets

Choice of models heavily depends on data availability (variety of socio-economic data at smaller administrative units, preferably geo-referenced)

Characterizing vulnerability and identifying variables associated with highest levels of vulnerability

Step 2: Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis (Partners: DLSU-CBMS and FNRI)

55.33% of the households are permanently food secure

5.23% are temporarily food secure but likely to be food insecure in the future

8.20% are temporarily food insecure

31.24% are chronically food insecure These are the households which are currently food insecure and at the same time, likely to be food insecure still in the future. These are the most important target on choosing policy instruments/ interventions

Step 2: Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis (Partners: DLSU-CBMS and FNRI)

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Step 3 Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Change

Identification, validation, field-testing, and evaluation of good adaptation practices at local context through participatory processes and capacity development under the framework of climate-smart Farmer Field Schools (FFS)

Field-testing sites are CamarinesSur & Surigao del Norte with drought, flooding and saline intrusion issues

Partners: DA RFU 5 (Bicol) , DA RFU 13 (Caraga) , PhilRice Agusan

A total of 157 farmers (97-Buhi, 30-Canaman, 30-Baao) in Bicol participated in the climate-smart FFS organized by the project in Bicol that now includes seven (7) expansion municipalities in addition to the original 3 as GPO test sites

In Caraga, FFS farmers numbered 58 farmers (20-Claver, 20-Gigaquit, 18-Bacuag) with GPO test sites in all Caraga provinces including Siargao

The climate component of the CS-FFS is now incorporated by DA RFU 5 for corn and vegetable FFS targeted for the region

Typhoon tracking by FFS participants

Fabricating manual rain gauge Varietal evaluation during Field Day

Step 3 Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Change:Climate-smart Farmer Field School

Community hazard assessment

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Step 3 Testing and adoption of CC-ready rice in unfavorable rice environments

We have completed the 4-season testing of climate change-ready rice lines for drought-, flood- and saline-prone environments within CSFFS framework

The DA National Rice Program has adopted this sub-component to determine the nation-wide performance of these CC-ready lines (63 test sites, WS 2014)

The DA is positioning these climate-resilient lines for El Niňomitigation starting 2014 DS

Products developed under Step 3 Project brochure/ folder for

dissemination

2014 calendar for farmers based on PalayCheck and good practice options; 2015 calendar is now being prepared with AMICAF results

On-going printing of reference manual for LGUs in localization of climate services (with PAGASA and RWAN)

Success stories of project’s CC adaptation options in Bicol and Caraga (print and video formats) in the works

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Step 4 Institutional analysis and awareness raisingPartners: Climate Change Commission and NEDA

National, regional and local institutional analysis workshops were conducted in 2013 and 2014 to assess institutional strengths and conceptualize/develop training modules for DRR/CC planners and policy makers and for LGUs in Caraga and Bicol, respectively

Documentation of success stories of Step 3 with DA Bicol and Caraga is on-going; outputs will be in print and video format

Nov. 2014 Outreach Event is being conceptualized to raise awareness and promote the project outputs and approach

For further inquiries:Dr. Tatsuji Koizumi

FAO-AMICAF International Project Coordinator<Tatsuji.Koizumi@fao.org>