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An Overview of the 2020 Census Design
Joint Statistical Meetings 2018Session 417:
Redesigning Federal SurveysRobin A. Pennington, Michael Bentley, Gina Walejko
Disclaimer: Any opinions stated in this presentation reflect only personal views of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau.
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2020 Census Operational Plan
• V4.0 to be released December 2018 in 2020 Census Memo Series
• Will include updated design incorporating results from the 2018 End-to-End Census Test
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Focus for Today’s Presentation
• Optimizing Self-Response• Internet self-response• Contact strategies – Internet First, Internet Choice• Integrated Partnership and Communications Program
• Main Components • Research and Communications Integration
• Minimizing Field Operations by using Administrative Records and Third-party Data
• Operational Design Integration
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The 2020 Census – Optimizing Self-ResponseGenerate the largest possible self-response, reducing the number of households requiring follow-up
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History of Self-Responses in the Census
• Since 1970, the decennial census has relied on mailout/mailback of paper questionnaires.
• In Census 2000, a reminder postcard was added, a week after the paper questionnaires.
• In the 2010 Census, a second paper questionnaire was added, with some changes to the plan when Nonresponse Followupreverted to a paper operation.
• None in high-response areas• To nonresponders only in medium response areas• Blanket mailing in low response areas
• In the 2020 Census, the primary response mode will be Internet.
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Census Tests – Optimizing Self-Response Findings• 2012 National Census Test
• Initial contact to invite participation, followed by two reminder prompts as needed and subsequent mailing of a paper questionnaire was a promising strategy (Internet push).
• Advance letter not shown to improve response rates.• Telephone assistance needed for respondents without Internet access.
• 2014 Census Test• Low participation rate for “pre-registration,” but high questionnaire
completion rate among those who pre-registered.
• 2015 Optimizing Self-Response Test• An additional 35,249 Internet responses from housing units not
selected in mail panels as a result of advertising and promotional efforts.
• Successful real-time non-ID processing, with high match rate.
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Census Tests (Continued)• 2015 National Content Test
• Mailing a reminder notice significantly increased response rate.• Mailing a questionnaire first in “low response areas” is effective.
• 2016 Census Test• Sending a letter instead of a postcard as the first reminder increased response
rate.• Providing more language services increased responses from non-English
speakers.• Mailing a questionnaire first in areas estimated to have lower Internet usage is
effective.
• 2017 Census TestTest of Tribal Enrollment question – no related findings
• 2018 End-to-End Census TestCurrently in production
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Table 1: Response Rates for Decennial Census Tests Occurring between 2012 and 2018
Internet Phone Mail Total2010
Census
2012 National Census Test (50 states and D.C.) 36.5 7.4 13.0 56.9 66.5
2014 Census Test(Montgomery County and Washington D.C.)* 50.6 5.2 10.2 65.9 72.8
2015 Census Test (Maricopa County)* 39.7 6.4 8.8 54.9 63.8
2015 Optimizing Self-Response Test (Savannah) 33.4 5.6 8.4 47.5 56.5
2015 National Content Test(50 states and D.C., average of all panels) 35.6 6.1 10.1 51.9 66.5
2016 Census Test (Harris County)* 28.2 1.9 9.2 39.3 60.5
2016 Census Test (Los Angeles County)* 32.4 2.6 17.4 52.5 71.6
2017 National Census Test (50 states and D.C.) 31.7 2.4 16.2 50.3 66.5
2018 Census Test (Providence County) (Preliminary results) 32.0 3.9 16.4 52.3 64.7
*Test conducted in a portion of the selected areaSource: Response data and sample operational data for each individual test.
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2020 Census Proposed Self-Response Mail Strategy
Dates in the table below are in-home dates.
Self-Response• Two-panel design: Internet First (invitation letter on first
contact) and Internet Choice (questionnaire on first contact)• New for 2020: four Internet First cohorts to best distribute
calls to Census Questionnaire Assistance• Internet Choice panel is in a single cohort, mailed on the
same schedule as Internet First, Cohort 2
Panel Cohort
Mailing 1Letter (Internet First)
or Letter +
Questionnaire (Internet Choice)
Mailing 2Letter
Mailing 3*Postcard
Mailing 4* Letter +
Questionnaire
Mailing 5*“It’s not too late”
Postcard
Internet First
1 March 12, 2020 March 16, 2020 March 26, 2020 April 8, 2020 April 20, 2020
2 March 13, 2020 March 17, 2020 March 27, 2020 April 9, 2020 April 20, 2020
3 March 19, 2020 March 23, 2020 April 2, 2020 April 15, 2020 April 27, 2020
4 March 20, 2020 March 24, 2020 April 3, 2020 April 16, 2020 April 27, 2020
Internet Choice N/A March 13, 2020 March 17, 2020 March 27, 2020 April 9, 2020 April 20, 2020
*Mailings targeted only to nonresponding households
Integrated Partnership and CommunicationsMain Components
The Integrated Partnership and Communications operation communicates the importance of participating in the 2020 Census to the entire population of the 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the island areas to:• Engage and motivate people to self-respond,
preferably via the internet
• Raise and keep awareness high throughout the entire 2020 Census to encourage response
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Integrated Partnership and CommunicationsResearch and Communications Integration
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Predictive Models
STEP 1
STEP 2 Conduct the Census Barriers, Attitudes, and Motivators Study (CBAMS) 2020
STEP 3
STEP 4
STEP 5
Segmentation
Media Planning
STEP 6
STEP 7
STEP 8
Design Advertising
Deliver Advertising
Optimize Resources
Rapid Response
Use of Administrative Records in U.S. Censuses
• Administrative Records in prior censuses: • Frame-building • Imputation • Characteristic imputation
• Expanded use and improved quality of records:• Clean-up of address list prior to NRFU• Enumeration data if no response
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AdRec: Administrative Records and Third-Party DataHU: Housing UnitNRFU: Nonresponse Followup OperationTEA: Type of Enumeration AreaUAA: Undeliverable As AddressedLE
GEND
NONR
ESPO
NSE F
OLLO
WUP
SELF
-RES
PONS
E
Shaded Box: Activity relating to AdRec Modeling
Shaded Diamond: Decision relating to AdRec Modeling
Hatched Box: NRFU Field Work
AdRec Vacant / AdRec Non-ExistentAdRec Occupied
Multiple AdRec Statuses
Case Resolved [not AdRec]
Case Resolved [with AdRec]
Case Unresolved
DATA COLLECTION POST DATA COLLECTION
Provide Opportunity
to Self-Respond:
1
TEA 1:Contact by Mail[Up to 5 Mailings]
TEA 6:Leave Packet at Door
[2 Reminder Mailingswhere Feasible]
Resolved with Self-Response
12Collect Self-Responses
Modes: Internet Response Collection, Paper Data Capture, Telephone Interview [for those who call in]
2
UAA Info
Resolved asVacant or
Non-ExistentRecord Address as
Vacant or Non-Existent
Unresolved
Resolved with AdRec Data
Enumerate Using AdRec Data
3
Run AdRec Modelson All Addresses
Create Universe of
NonrespondingAddresses
Possible Results:AdRec Vacant
AdRec Non-ExistentAdRec Occupied
AdRec No Determination
Attempt to Enumerate[First Attempt]
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UAA?
Send AdditionalMailing toEncourage
Self-Response
Max Attempts?
Send AdRec Mailing
4
NRFUADREC VACANT
ADREC NON-EXISTENT
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Resolved with Field Visit
[Enumerated oridentified as vacant
or not a HU]
NRFU UNIVERSE
Successful?
Appears Occupied?
AdRecOccupied?
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NO
AdRec Vacant,AdRec Non-Existent, or AdRec Occupied?
AdRec Vacant or AdRec Non-Existent?
Successful?
End of NRFU?
NRFU Closeout
Phase Begins
Successful?
AdRec Vacant or AdRec Non-Existent?
NO
YES
YES
NO
YES
NO
YES[Unresolved]
Attempt to Enumerate
[Additional Attempts]
Attempt to Enumerate
[Final Attempts]
YES YES
NO
NO
NOUAA Info
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6
6
6 7
9
9
6 9
10
8 10
Data Flow
Logic Flow
Reassess AdRec Models Results with
Relaxed Thresholds
YES
NO
NO[AdRec Occupied]
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5
5
8 105
11
97
96
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NRFU Administrative Records Contact Strategy, V2.0
NO
YESYES
NO
YESYES
7 9
NRFU Begins[6 weeks after Self-Response Begins]
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Integration Artifacts
Operational Plan – 35 operationsDetailed Operational Plans
• Business Process Models• Activity Tree• Integrated Definition for Function Modeling• Integrated Operations Diagrams
Integration
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IE
18. Nonresponse Followup Operation
(NRFU)
18-1. NRFU Planning and Preparation
18-2. NRFU Operational Workload Management
18-3. NRFU Data Collection
18-4. NRFU Quality Control Adjudication
18-5. NRFU Operation Closeout
Staff: HQ Staff, RCC Staff, ACO Staff, Field Staff, NPC
Staff
(3. SPC) Security, Privacy, and
Confidentiality Controls
(4. CFD) IE226: Content Specifications for
Automated Instruments
Sites: HQ, RCC, ACO, Field Area, NPC, Training Venues
Systems: ECaSE-ENUM, ECaSE-OCS, ECaSE-FOCS, SMaRCS, MaCS, MOJO: BLQ, MOJO:
Optimizer; MOJO: HERMES, UTS, LMSOther: Census Networks, Mobile
Networks, Mobile Devices
Mechanisms: Resources Employed by Operation
Controls: Data to Guide Operation
Inputs: Data Consumed by Operation Outputs: Data Produced by Operation
19. RPO
• IE112: NRFU Case Universe and Updates (including AdRecModeling Results)
• IE119: QC Computer Match Results
• IE120: Enumeration Hold Notification
Respond-ent
• IE183: Response Data• IE242: NRFU Contact
Information
(1. PM) Program Controls: incl. Budget, Operational
Plans and Schedule
Other: HQ Office IT Infrastructure,
Operation-Specific Kits
Version v07f – July 11, 2019
HU or Respondent
19. RPO
1. PM• IE404: NRFU Paradata
4. CFD
33. DLM• IE391: Operation-Specific Kit Requirements
32. FLDI• IE241: Draft and Final
Operation-Specific Training Materials (for NRFU)
(32. FLDI) IE367: Online and Classroom Training
Schedules
31. DSC• IE360: IT Service Outcome
Notification• IE577: Service Event Notification
31. DSC
6. GEOP
• IE066: Spatial Data (for assignment)
• IE067: Geographic Data Products (for assignment)
(5. LNG) IE206: 2020 Census Language
Support Plan
6. GEOP
• IE260: Request for Response• IE261: Notice of Visit
• IE254: Self-Response Case Hold Flagging Rules• IE255: AdRec Modeling Requirements• IE256: Contact Attempt Stopping Rules• IE257: QC Plan (for NRFU)• IE258: Areas for Early NRFU• IE104: Response and Status Data for Cases• IE259: Reinterview Anomaly Outcome• IE131: Address Data Updates from Field Ops
• IE380: IT Service Requests
32. FLDI
• IE250: Estimated Operational Workload • IE251: Operation-Specific Training Content and
Requirements • IE252: Approved Operation-Specific Training
Materials • IE615: Time and Expense Records• IE616: Administrative Actions
• IE049: Geographic Products Requirements
• IE209: NRFU Field Support Materials Content
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(6,8) Paper Notices and/or Paper Form (i)
(7) CIResponse (i),
Status
(7) ISR Response (i,n),Status
(4) Updated MAFAfter ADC
GEOP: (MAF/ TIGER)
WorkingMAF for
Enumeration
GEOP: (MAF/ TIGER)
Final Collection and Tabulation
Universes
(11) Final Updated MAF/TIGER Data
GEOP: (MAF/ TIGER) -Updated MAF
after ADC
(3) Initial MAF from ADC and LUCA
GEOP: (MAF/ TIGER) -
Initial MAF for ADC and
LUCA
(1,2) Address and Spatial Data from
LUCA Returns
LUCA: Feedback
and Appeals
(6,8) Updates from LUCA
Appeals Outcomes
(3,4) Address and Spatial
Data for LUCA Feedback Products
ADC: (BARCA, LiMA) -
Incl. In-Office Address
Canvassing, MAFCS, In-Field
Address Canvassing
(1,2,3) Address
and Spatial Data for
ADC
(1,2) ADCAddress Adds &
Updates/ Deletes: In-Office, MAFCS
(3) ADC Address Adds &
Updates/Deletes: In-Field
RPO: Post Data Collection Phase
(CDL, DRPS) -Final Enumeration
Response Data (DRF, CUF, CEF)
RPO: Data Collection Phase
(ECaSE Survey OCS, SMaRCS, CaRDS, CDL) - Working Enumeration
Universe (incl. Supplemental)
RPO: Pre Data Collection Phase(CaRDS, ECaSE Survey OCS) -
Initial Enumeration Universe
(11) Final Collection and Tabulation
Universes
(6,8,10) Ongoing Address Adds/Updates/Deletes incl.
MAFX for Suppl. Univ.,MAFIDs for TempIDs
(5) EnumerationCases
(4) MAF Extracts (MAFX) (w/TEA Designations)
and Spatial Data
FPD
PDC
CQA (incl. CI)
NRFU:(ECaSE FLD OCS, ECaSE Enum) -
incl. Nonresponse Followup & Field Verification (FV)
NID:Post-Real Time
Phase(Async,Clerical)
NID:Real-time
Phase (RTNP)
ISR
UE
GQ
ETL
(7) Cases(n)
(7) Cases(n), Cases(i)
(6,8) Cases(i)
(8) NonIDRequests
(8) NonIDMatch/Miss
Results
(11) Final Case and Response Data
DPD
ARC
(12) FinalArchival
Response Data
RDP: Phases 3,4 & 5
CRO: Count & File
Review Phase(11) File
Review Inputs
Post-Enum. Survey Ops
(12) Final EnumerationResponse Data Inputs Ready for Tabulation
(1) Address and Spatial
Data for LUCA Outreach and
Participant Review
Materials
LUCA: Outreach,
Review and
Returns
(7) CQA AgentResponse (i,n)
(6) BCU Lists,Cases(i)
(7) GQ eResponse, Status, Address
Adds & Updates/Deletes
(10) Response,Status, Address
Adds & Updates/ Deletes
(9) NRFU Cases (i)
(9) FV Cases(n)
(7) Status, Address Adds & Updates/
Deletes
(7) PDC Response (i),Status
(12) FinalArchival Image Data
Administrative Records & 3rd
Party Data
(1,2,3) Ongoing Updates of Address and Spatial Data (incl. DSF, Geog.
Partnerships/Delineations, Other)
USPS DSFExternal Address and Spatial Data
SourcesGSS Data
(8) Occupied/ Vacant/Delete
Unit Information
Person Counts and
Characteristics
Demographic and
Geographic Data
(8,10) Address Updates/Deletes,
Address Adds with TempIDs
ID Respondent
(6) Paper Form (i) via UL
(7) Internet Response (i)(7) Telephone Response (i)
Pre Data Collection
Phase
Data Collection
Phase
Post Data Collection
Phase
CQRNonID Respondent
(7) Telephone Response (n)
(7) Internet Response (n)
IPC
(5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12) IPC
Influences Public Knowledge and
Promotes Census Response
FACO
(12) Overseas Counts,Status
Demographic and
Geographic Data
(11) Administrative Records Data to
Support Tabulation
(6,8) Ongoing Updates of Address and Spatial Data (incl.DSF, New Construction, Other)
(11) Geographic Data to Support Tabulation
2020 Census Top-level End-to-End Operational Data Flow
Version v10c 11/14/2018
RDP: Phase 1
(1) Block Boundary
Suggestion Project Inputs
RDP: Phase 2
(3) Voting District Project Inputs
White House, Public
(6,8) MAF Info
cts
GQ Respondent
(7) Response ETL Respondent
(7) Response
NRFU Respondent(10) Response
Persons: Places: Things:
Office Workers Field Workers Respondents Public/Partners White House States NARA (National Archives)
Paper Materials
Internet Response
Partnerships/Communications
Automated Processing
ICON KEY
(7) Military TEAAddress/Response
(GQ+HU)
ID Cases = Cases(i)ID Responses = Response(i)
NonID Cases = Cases(n)NonID Responses = Response(n)
Frame:
Response Data:
Publish Data:
Test & Eval:
KEY
Record Sources:
GEOP Other
RPO Other
Respondent:Hi Mom!
PURPOSE: The 2020 Census Top-Level End-to-End (E2E) Operational Data Flow diagram illustrates a notional model for end-to-end data interactions between the 2020 Census
operations relating to frame management, data collection and data dissemination work. [Not depicted: Support Ops, Island Areas Censuses, Post-Enumeration Survey Ops details]
UL
(12) Final Tabulation Geography
(6,8) Status
(7) Paper ETL Response (i)
Via USPS
(7) Paper Response (i)
Via USPS
(2) LUCA Address
Validation Requests
(2) LUCA Address
Validation Responses
(11) Administrative Records Data to
Support Enumeration
UE Respondent
(7) Response
EAE
(5) Cases(i)
ATo
EAE
(6,8) Paper Notices and/or Paper Form (i)
B
A
(12) Final
Counts
(12) FinalCensus
Data Products
(8) GQ EnumerationRecords for CRO
BFrom EAE
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Contact InformationRobin A. Pennington [email protected]
Michael Bentley [email protected]
Gina Walejko [email protected]
www.census.gov – Surveys/Programs – 2020 Census2020 Census Memo Series for 2020 Census Operational Plan, Detailed Operational Plans, and other important documents
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Backup SlidesIntegrated Partnership and Communications
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Step 1: Predictive models will estimate a household’s self-response propensity, the likely response mode, and the timing of response. Using Census Bureau and third-party data, we will be able to predict each Census tract’s probability to respond, enabling us to predict where low-response households are located, aggregate this information to larger geographies, and tailor outreach accordingly.
Step 2: Census Barriers, Attitudes, and Motivators Study (CBAMS) 2020 activities will help us understand the barriers, attitudes, motivators, and knowledge gaps that the communications campaign will need to address. The survey will be structured so that the findings can be integrated with small-geography level communications.
Step 3: We will group the households into segments based on their propensity to self-respond, their demographic characteristics, and our understanding of their attitudes based on responses to the CBAMS 2020 survey.
Step 4: We will plan how to reach each audience based on the segmentation data. For example, to reach a segment that is geographically concentrated, we can use local tactics like spot television, radio, events, out-of-home advertising, Spanish-language media, or earned media to reach them.
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Step 5: We will design ads to specifically reach each audience. We will develop an overarching campaign platform, and then tailor initial designs for creative based on what we know about our audiences. Then, with our robust creative pre-testing, we will improve ads based on real feedback from a sample of people in that audience group.
Step 6: We will deliver the advertising, carefully monitoring the early results compared to predicted behaviors to identify geographic areas, audience segments, or demographic groups where response patterns are a concern.
Step 7: As households complete the census questionnaire, we will revise our models and gain efficiency by shifting resources to areas predicted to have the highest amount of remaining households who have not yet responded and limiting resources expended on geographies with high response rates. Data will inform us about what the best messages and modes to reach the segments are.
Step 8: The rapid response team will address real-time issues. We will review a daily response report among key demographic and geographic groups. We will coordinate with Field and Partnership teams to prioritize audiences and align messages.
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