an overview of plexos - wecc overview of...market analysts prices and generation mix fuel budgeters...
TRANSCRIPT
Who uses PLEXOS, how and why?
1
An Overview of PLEXOS
Agenda
• Introductions
• Who uses PLEXOS?
• How would you use PLEXOS?
• How is PLEXOS used?
• How does PLEXOS work?
• PLEXOS Data Sets
• PLEXOS Case Study Highlights
• Q&A
Introductions – Our Team
David Wilson, Chief Executive
Officer
Dr. Glenn Drayton, Chief
Software Designer
Prajval Parasravanthy, Chief Product
Officer
Ben Thompson, SVP & GM, Americas
Dr. Steven Broad, VP, Solution
Engineering
Who uses PLEXOS?Building the grid of the futureTransmission Planners
Choosing the portfolio of the futureGeneration Planners
Contracts, pipelines, storage, spotGas Planners
Prices and generation mixMarket Analysts
Estimating fuel burn and fuel contract pricing and hedgingFuel Budgeters
Bidding for contracts and optionsMarketers
Understanding value at risk; valuing uncertaintyRisk Managers
Adjusting forecasts to meet the circumstances on the groundOperators
Formulating Offers and running a portfolio against current bookTraders
Providing advisory services to businesses that invest or produce energyConsultants
How is PLEXOS used?
Transmission Planning
•Congestion Analysis
•Contingency Analysis
•Economic Valuation
•Economic CapEx
Generation Planning
• IRP, CapEx
•Renewables
•Hydro-Thermal
• Storage
•EE, DSM, DER
Market Analysis
•Price Forecasting
• Fuel Price Sensitivity
•Nodal / Zonal
•DA / HA / RT
•Economic Valuation
Risk Management
•Value at Risk
•Options and Hedging
•Monte Carlo
• Stochastic Unit Commitment
Natural Gas Planning
•Electric Power Cooptimization
•Pipeline and Storage Expansion
• Gas Contracts and Options
How is PLEXOS used?
Fuel Budgeting
• Estimate burn
• Fuel switching
• Fuel contracts
Marketing
• Portfolio Analysis
• Pricing blocks
• Leveraging markets
• Options
Trading
• DA/HA/RT
• Market Comm.
• Portfolio Optimization
• ETRM Integration
Operations
• DA/HA/RT
• EMS Integration
• Adjusting to forecast error
Consulting
• Advisory Services
• Market Forecasts
• Asset Valuation
How does PLEXOS work?
• Start with Energy Exemplar Data Sets
• Simulate cooptimization of Energy, Ancillary Services, Gas, etc.
• Get amazing performance from Commercial Solvers (Xpress, Gurobi, CPLEX, etc.)
• Analysis from wonderfully flexible reporting and visualization
LT Plan
• Expansion
• Retirement
• Retrofit
• Gen & Txn
PASA
• Maintenance Scheduling
• Reliability Metrics LOLE
• Maintenance Shaping
MT Schedule
• Resource Allocation
• Constraints
• Emissions
• Fuel
• Hydro
ST Schedule
• Unit Commitment
• Economic Dispatch
• Security Constraints
Phases of PLEXOS Execution
Elements of a PLEXOS Model
Generation
Generators
Batteries
Reservoirs
Contracts
AS
Transmission
Zones
Buses
Lines
Transformers
Gas-Electric
Suppliers
Pipelines
Storages
Contracts
Water-Power
Pumps
Generator Cooling
Desalination
Waste Treatment
Other
Stochastics
Generic Constraints
Time Series
Data Transformation
Transmission Modeling
SCUC/ED
• Energy/AS
• MIP
• DC-OPF
Network Applications
• Contingencies
• Post-formulated constraints
Gen schedules and initial flowsAdditional Constraints representing Violations
Long-term Optimization Capacity Expansion
Cost $
Objective: Minimize NPV of capital & production costs formulated as Mixed-Integer Problem
x = Assets
C(x): Capital Cost
P(x): Production Cost
Minimum cost plan
C(x) P(x)Total Cost
Long Term Planning
• Build plan with generation and transmission line options
• Also works with
• Batteries
• Emissions Abatements
• Retrofits and Conversions
• Transformers
• PARs
Multi-stage Simulation Approach
• Day-Ahead Forecasts of Load, Wind & Solar
• Contingency Flex & Regulation Reserve
Initial Market Unit Commitment
• Hour-Ahead Forecasted Load, Wind & Solar
• Contingency Flex and Regulation Reserve
Residual Unit Commitment • Sub-hourly 'actual'
Load, Wind and Solar
• Contingency & Regulation Reserve
Imbalance Energy
DA
HA
RT
Real time vs. Day Ahead
Stochastic Analysis
• Any input may be formulated with uncertainty• Outages, Prices, Load, Renewables, Gas Prices, etc.
• Advanced time series formulation• Monte Carlo• Stochastic Optimization• Visualization
Simulation Ready Datasets• Integrated Zonal Datasets
• Comprehensive resource and constraint modeling mapped to all interconnected zones
• U.S.-Canada Database
• European Database
• Mexico Database
• Nodal Datasets- Planning and Commercial• Eastern Interconnect (MMWG)
• Western Interconnect (Anchor)
• ERCOT (SSWG)
• SPP ITP
• MISO MTEP
• Publicly sourced, Dedicated team, Extensively documented, tested and calibrated, Detailed definitions, Updated continuously
Questions?