““An Exceptional Event Concerning Particle An Exceptional Event Concerning Particle

Pollution in the Southeast”Pollution in the Southeast”

By:

Bill Murphey Chief Meteorologist, Georgia EPD

What is an Exceptional Event?What is an Exceptional Event?U.S. EPA defines the term "exceptional event" to mean an U.S. EPA defines the term "exceptional event" to mean an event that:event that:Affects air quality; Affects air quality;

1.1.Is not reasonably controllable or preventable; Is not reasonably controllable or preventable; 2.2.Is an event caused by human activity that is unlikely to Is an event caused by human activity that is unlikely to recur at a particular location or a natural event; and recur at a particular location or a natural event; and 3.3.Is determined by U.S. EPA through the process Is determined by U.S. EPA through the process established in the regulations, 40 CFR Part 50.14.established in the regulations, 40 CFR Part 50.14.

http://www.in.gov/idem/5498.htmhttp://www.in.gov/idem/5498.htm

Meteorological Factors and Models used Meteorological Factors and Models used to Determine Air Quality Forecaststo Determine Air Quality Forecasts

Ambient concentration of pollutant

Synoptic regime Satellite Imagery

(IDEA/MODIS/Fire Imagery) Surface Meteorology Upper Air Meteorology

(Satellite, Rawinsonde, NWS Models)

Trajectory Analysis (HYSPLIT)

Multiple linear regression model, Decision-tree, Closest Neighbor Models

Exceptional Events ExamplesExceptional Events Examples

Case 1Case 1 - Recent PM - Recent PM2.52.5 smoke episode from Arabia smoke episode from Arabia

Bay Fire activity in South Georgia Bay Fire activity in South Georgia ((November 12, November 12, 2010)2010)

Case 2Case 2 – Smoke transported northwestward from – Smoke transported northwestward from Waycross fires in south Georgia Waycross fires in south Georgia (May 22, 2007)(May 22, 2007)

Case 1Case 1 – Arabia Bay Fire – Arabia Bay Fire

The Arabia Bay fire, located six to ten miles northwest of Homerville in Clinch County (south Georgia), had burned nearly 3000 acres from Nov 9-29th, as reported the Georgia Forestry Commission.

Satellite photo showing the area in which the Arabia Bay swamp fire was burning. Mainly composed of brush and leaf litter, the fire was believed to be caused by an arsonist. Fire caused dense smoke and reduced visibility in Homerville and Valdosta areas.

Additional AnalysisAdditional Analysis

6

• Fire lead to Fire lead to smoke pollution smoke pollution and reduced and reduced visibility in visibility in Valdosta area Valdosta area where PM2.5 where PM2.5 standard was standard was violated.violated.

• This event was This event was analyzed the with analyzed the with MODIS and MODIS and CALIPSO data.CALIPSO data.

MODIS Fires

Surface PM2.5

Satellite Surface MapSatellite Surface Map – – Nov 12, 2010Nov 12, 2010

• High Pressure system centered over the mid-Atlantic moved eastward, keeping High Pressure system centered over the mid-Atlantic moved eastward, keeping mostly dry stable conditions over central and south GA, along with mostly clear skiesmostly dry stable conditions over central and south GA, along with mostly clear skies

• Good pre-frontal build-up of PMGood pre-frontal build-up of PM2.5 2.5 ahead of the approaching cold front (stagnant ahead of the approaching cold front (stagnant conditions) may have helped concentrations at VLD go even higherconditions) may have helped concentrations at VLD go even higher

Objective WRF MesoanalysisObjective WRF Mesoanalysis• Local model run internally Local model run internally at EPD.at EPD.• Domain chosen for fire Domain chosen for fire region over South Georgia.region over South Georgia.• Wind (barbs), mean Wind (barbs), mean Sea-level pressure Sea-level pressure (contours), and Relative (contours), and Relative Humidity (color fill)Humidity (color fill) are plotted.are plotted.• Winds veer from northerly Winds veer from northerly to northeasterly fromto northeasterly from 11/13 into 11/14.11/13 into 11/14.• PM 2.5 concentrations PM 2.5 concentrations rapidly increase on 11/14, rapidly increase on 11/14, as smoke is transported as smoke is transported from the fire region (nearfrom the fire region (near Homerville) towards theHomerville) towards the Valdosta monitoring site.Valdosta monitoring site.

EPD’s WRF-ARW is initialized with NAM12 data

RUC Forecast Time-Height Section RUC Forecast Time-Height Section For Homerville, GAFor Homerville, GA

Light low-level northeasterly flow transported smoke into Valdosta from the fire region

Visible Imagery/RUC AnalysisVisible Imagery/RUC Analysis

Aqua Modis RGB – Southeast Aqua Modis RGB – Southeast ((11/1411/14))

CALIPSO – Backscatter PlotCALIPSO – Backscatter Plot

CALIPSO 532nm total aerosol backscatter CALIPSO 532nm total aerosol backscatter and surface [PMand surface [PM2.52.5]]

Early morning CALIPSO overpass captures smoke plume from Arabia Bay FireEarly morning CALIPSO overpass captures smoke plume from Arabia Bay FireArabia Bay Fire

Source: Data accessed and image generated by U.S. EPA Remote Sensing Information GatewaySource: Data accessed and image generated by U.S. EPA Remote Sensing Information GatewayData Sources: CALIOP 532nm TAB (NASA-LaRC) and surface [PMData Sources: CALIOP 532nm TAB (NASA-LaRC) and surface [PM2.52.5] – EPA AQS] – EPA AQS

Source: Data accessed and image generated by U.S. EPA Remote Sensing Information GatewaySource: Data accessed and image generated by U.S. EPA Remote Sensing Information GatewayData Sources: CALIOP 532nm TAB (NASA-LaRC) and surface [PMData Sources: CALIOP 532nm TAB (NASA-LaRC) and surface [PM2.52.5] – EPA AQS] – EPA AQS

Close up Image of CALIOP 532nm total aerosol Close up Image of CALIOP 532nm total aerosol backscatter and surface [PMbackscatter and surface [PM2.52.5]]

Early morning CALIPSO overpass captures smoke plume from Arabia Bay FireEarly morning CALIPSO overpass captures smoke plume from Arabia Bay Fire

hkmc

Animation of Smoke Plume DetectionOriginal AOD Image Smoke AOD Image

• Semi-quantitative retrieval of Semi-quantitative retrieval of column average smoke column average smoke concentration (µg/mconcentration (µg/m33) using AOD ) using AOD and fire hot spots from GOESand fire hot spots from GOES Uses source apportionment and Uses source apportionment and

pattern recognition techniques pattern recognition techniques to isolate smoke aerosols from to isolate smoke aerosols from other type of aerosolsother type of aerosols

Smoke mass concentration (mSmoke mass concentration (mcc) ) is obtained using AOD (is obtained using AOD (ττ), ), mass extinction efficiency (mass extinction efficiency (kk), ), and aerosol height (and aerosol height (hh))

• Product used by NWS for Product used by NWS for operational smoke forecast operational smoke forecast verificationverification

GOES Smoke Concentration ProductGOES Smoke Concentration Product

Rolph et al., Verification of NOAA Smoke Forecast: the 2007 Fire Season, Weather and Forecasting, 2009

FMS = 43%

Diurnal Variation of PM2.5 Emissions Observed by GOESDiurnal Variation of PM2.5 Emissions Observed by GOES

16

• Agricultural burning• No night time fire activity• Significant amount of emissions• Smoke from these fires spread far and wide

• Fewer fires in Georgia• Fires did not always die down during the night• Smoke transport very localized

Evolution of Smoke Aerosol on November 11, 2010Evolution of Smoke Aerosol on November 11, 2010

17

1515 1545 1615 1645 1715

1745 1815 1845 1915 2015

2115 2145

MODIS Imagery

GOES Imagery

Additional Exceptional Event Additional Exceptional Event Example Example (2/11/08)(2/11/08)

Warehouse fire in South Fulton County (GA) caused hourly PM2.5 values to increase at EPD Monitoring stations

EE Case Study – May 22EE Case Study – May 22ndnd, , 20072007

Southeasterly winds around a strong surface ridge centered off the New England coast

Skew-T plot for FFC at 12z on 22 May, showed a strong morning temperature inversion

Winds pushed smoke northwest from the Waycross fires and concentrated the smoke at ground level

Yorkville monitoring site had an O3 violation on 22 May corresponding with high PM2.5 values

AOD and Visible ImageryAOD and Visible Imagery

Visible Satellite Imagery (Terra MODIS) Visible Satellite Imagery (Terra MODIS) for 22 May, showing smoke plumes from for 22 May, showing smoke plumes from

Waycross streaming up towards NW Waycross streaming up towards NW GeorgiaGeorgia

MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth imagery showing high AOD imagery showing high AOD corresponding with smoke corresponding with smoke plumes on visible satelliteplumes on visible satellite

Satellite Fire Detection & Back Satellite Fire Detection & Back TrajectoryTrajectory

SummarySummary

Several meteorological tools Several meteorological tools ((Trajectories, satellite imagery, synoptic Trajectories, satellite imagery, synoptic conditionsconditions) could be utilized when ) could be utilized when characterizing exceptional events.characterizing exceptional events.

In fire/smoke activity, other meteorological factors In fire/smoke activity, other meteorological factors could have contributed to enhanced particle pollution could have contributed to enhanced particle pollution levels, such as approaching frontal systems and pre-levels, such as approaching frontal systems and pre-frontal pooling. Easier to predict due to long frontal pooling. Easier to predict due to long duration and availability of surface data.duration and availability of surface data.

Some exceptional events are more frequent and Some exceptional events are more frequent and clear-cut than others, such as the Arabia fire/smoke clear-cut than others, such as the Arabia fire/smoke and Okefenokee Swamp fire cases.and Okefenokee Swamp fire cases.

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

• Nyasha DunkleyNyasha Dunkley, (Georgia Environmental Protection , (Georgia Environmental Protection Division)Division)

• Amy K. HuffAmy K. Huff ((Battelle Memorial Institute)Battelle Memorial Institute)

• Shobha Kondragunta, (Shobha Kondragunta, (NOAA/NESDIS)NOAA/NESDIS)• Sean MillerSean Miller, (Georgia Environmental Protection Division), (Georgia Environmental Protection Division)• Jim Szykman, (Jim Szykman, (NASA LARC)NASA LARC)