An airborne portable expendable probe receiver/processor An airborne portable expendable probe receiver/processor system for operational acquisition and transmission of system for operational acquisition and transmission of

ocean observations from WC-130J tropical cyclone flights ocean observations from WC-130J tropical cyclone flights

1Science Applications International, Inc.2Naval Research Laboratory

Monterey, California3Office of Naval Research, Arlington, VA

4Naval Oceanographic Office, Stennis Space Center, MS5REL, Inc. and USAF (ret), Biloxi, MS

6Naval Research Lab, Stennis Space Center, MS

6464thth Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Interdepartmental Hurricane ConferenceSavannah, GASavannah, GA1-4 March, 20101-4 March, 2010

Peter G. Black1,2, Daniel Eleuterio3, Jeff Kerling4, Robert E. Lee5 and Dong-Shan Ko6

ITOP/TCS10: Impact of Typhoons ITOP/TCS10: Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacificon the Ocean in the Pacific

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ITOP/TCS10: Impact of Typhoons on theITOP/TCS10: Impact of Typhoons on theOcean in the Pacific: 3 Key ObjectivesOcean in the Pacific: 3 Key Objectives

• What is the three dimensional response of the What is the three dimensional response of the ocean to typhoons?ocean to typhoons?

• How do ocean eddies affect this response?How do ocean eddies affect this response?

• How does the ocean response affect typhoon How does the ocean response affect typhoon intensity?intensity?

TPARC/TCS08: Legacy for AXBT/DrifterTPARC/TCS08: Legacy for AXBT/Drifter

• Missions: 26• Mission Flight Hours: 263• High-Level Missions, 300mb: 12• TC 700mb Missions: 12• Buoy Deployment Missions: 2• Tropical Cyclones: 4

WC-130J Aircraft FlightsWC-130J Aircraft Flights

TPARC/TCS08 Experiment TPARC/TCS08 Experiment Tools:

WC-130J Aircraft (2)WC-130J Aircraft (2)

• GPS dropsonde (750, ~ 26/flt) foratmospheric profiling (high-altitude)

• AXBT*- ocean thermal profiling (250, ~ 13/flt)

• ADOS profiler/ Minimet drift buoys- 3D ocean structure, surface currents (24)

• SFMR- surface winds• Radar Video Recording*- TC structure

*First used in TCS08

TPARC/TCS08 Experiment ObjectiveTPARC/TCS08 Experiment Objective: : TEST HYPOTHESISTEST HYPOTHESIS

Typhoon Intensity Change, including Rapid Intensification (RI) and Rapid Filling (RF), is driven by large-scale conditioning:

• Atmospheric environmental interaction

• Oceanic Variability

TPARC/TCS08 Experiment Strategy:TPARC/TCS08 Experiment Strategy:

Develop a MOBILEMOBILE TC and ocean observing system to define TC intensity while observing background ocean conditions and ocean-TC interaction

MORPHS into ITOP/TCS10 StrategyMORPHS into ITOP/TCS10 Strategy

TPARC/TCS08 Commonality with TPARC/TCS08 Commonality with ITOP/TCS10:ITOP/TCS10:

I. Variability in oceanic heat input to TC large:knowledge required for coupled models

II. Rapid Intensity Change (RI/RF) accounts for more than half of the large TC intensity forecast errors.

III. Strategic and economic consequences for un-forecasted RI/RF, which occur in only 15% of the TC life cycle, account for 85% of TC losses.

Why Investigate Oceanic Role inWhy Investigate Oceanic Role inTC Rapid Intensity Change and vice versa?TC Rapid Intensity Change and vice versa?

Ko, NRL Stennis

AXBT’s help to adjust model-predictededdy locations

D26

100

m

50 m

SATCON Intensity:Velden, CIMSSHawkins, NRL

TCS08Jangmi Sept, 2008Track,Intensity Change

Aircraft

JMA

9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28 9/29 9/30 10/1 10/2

920

900

940

960

980

1000

Pre

ssu

re (

mb

)

0

50

100

150

Win

d S

pee

d (

kt)

Rap

id

Inten

sification

RapidFilling

Aircraft Pmin

OH

C G

rad

ien

t

LandfallK

uro

sh

io

Rapid Structure Change

X

X Aircraft Vmax

X

X

27 Sept, 1134

27 Sept, 2132

28 Sept, 0006

OH

C G

rad

ien

t

Col

d,

Col

d,

Sh

allo

wS

hal

low

War

m, D

eep

Bands Decay: Bands Decay:

Dry Slot FormsDry Slot Forms

Eyewall shrinks,Eyewall shrinks,

asymmetric bandasymmetric band

structure formsstructure forms

Eyewall open west,Eyewall open west,

NW quad rainbandsNW quad rainbands

Disappear: DRY SlotDisappear: DRY Slot

27 Sept, 0445

STY Jangmi

Rapid Structure Change

Time

Concentric Eyewalls:Concentric Eyewalls:

Peak IntensityPeak Intensity

SSTASSTA

Jangmi COAMPS-TC Forecasts with TCDI InitializationJangmi COAMPS-TC Forecasts with TCDI Initialization

840

860

880

900

920

940

960

980

1000

1020

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

Forecast hour

SL

P(h

Pa)

)

JMA

JTWC

Coupled

Uncoupled

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

Forecast hour

10-m

Max

Win

d (

kts)

JMA

JTWC

Coupled

Uncoupled

Jangmi track is well captured by both the coupled and uncoupled 5 km simulations over the first 3 days, but the forecast tracks deviate significantly from the observed over the last 24 h.The rapid intensity change (both intensification and weakening) in the coupled run compares more favorably with the observations than the uncoupled run.

Co

ld e

dd

y b

nd

ry

Lan

dfa

ll

25 26 27 28 29 30

Jangmi OHC25-30 Sept 086-HR interval

JangmiJangmiSSTASSTA20082008

26 Sept26 Sept

JangmiJangmiSSTASSTA20082008

28 Sept28 Sept

JangmiJangmiOHCOHC

27 Aug27 Aug

TCS08 AXBT LocationsKo, NRL Stennis

AXBT vs NRL OceanModel Initial Conditions

TCS08 Ocean HeatContent Obs: •Concurrent with GPS dropsondes•Preview of ITOP2010

Modelunderpredictshigh heatcontent

Ocean Heat Content (OHC)

AXBT System ComponentsAXBT System Components

Clewless Operator- weak link

Pop-up keyboard, folding screen, computers, MK10 Audio recorders, MK-10, UPS Inverter

CCompact, portable rack-mount cases

WC-130J AXBT PhotosWC-130J AXBT Photos

WC-130J AXBT PhotosWC-130J AXBT Photos

Loading AXBT Chute

Launching AXBT

AXBT Probes and Cases

Receiving/Processing AXBTs - Lou

Data ProcessingData Processing

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1)

2)

3)

Science CONCLUSIONSScience CONCLUSIONS

There is a strong relation between There is a strong relation between TC RapidTC Rapid Intensity Change,Intensity Change, warm/cold ocean eddy warm/cold ocean eddy

boundaries and differing TC-ocean interaction boundaries and differing TC-ocean interaction in those regions- likely a function of storm size, in those regions- likely a function of storm size, intensity, speed of motion and other factorsintensity, speed of motion and other factors

ITOP/TCS10 promises to advance our ITOP/TCS10 promises to advance our understanding of ocean forcing and TC response understanding of ocean forcing and TC response through a further advance in observational through a further advance in observational technology- combining airborne, moored, ship-technology- combining airborne, moored, ship-based and AUV platformsbased and AUV platforms

Operational CONCLUSIONSOperational CONCLUSIONS

As COUPLED TC prediction models are As COUPLED TC prediction models are implemented, improved initial TC ocean profile implemented, improved initial TC ocean profile data will become as important as initial data will become as important as initial atmospheric dropsonde data both in the atmospheric dropsonde data both in the environment ahead of the TC and within the TC.environment ahead of the TC and within the TC.

A prototype system for AXBT and other profiler A prototype system for AXBT and other profiler deployment and real-time processing is now deployment and real-time processing is now available for operational testing as resources available for operational testing as resources become available.become available.

END