wyaldidobis riskis analizi integrirebuli menejmentistvisdrm.cenn.org/trainings/spatial data for...
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INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION
wyaldidobis riskis analizi
integrirebuli
menejmentisTvis
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wyaldidobis riski
wyaldidobis riski ukavSirdeba wylis
masebis iseTi raodenobis dinebas, romlis
gadazidvis saSualeba ar aqvs mdinaris
kalapots, wyali gadmoedineba mdinaris
napirebze da xdeba kalapotis midamoebis
datborva. wyaldidoba ukavSirdeba
materialur da sixcocxlis danakargs,
aseve uaryofiT zegavlenas axdens
ekosistemaze.
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•komerciuli Cavardna
• momsaxureobis Cavardna
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datborvis siRrme
wylis nakadis sicqarewylis donis matebis siCqare
talRebis zemoqmedeba
• datborvis wyaro, mizezi
• winaswarmetyvelebis sandooba
• winaswari Setyobineba
social• informireba wyaldidobebis Sesaxeb
• mosaxleobis labiluroba
• Senoba-nagebobebis tipi da amsala
• socialuri mdgomareoba
• dacvis tipebi
• d• c
•• riskis qveS mdebare qoneba
• klimaturi cvlilebebi
• cvlilebebis mimarT mgrZnobeloba
• moklevadiani da grZelvadiani
zemoqmedeba
ekonomika
riskis qveS myofi infrastruqtura
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• sasoflo-sameurneo danakargi
wyaldidobis tipi•
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wyaldidobis
winaswarmetyvelaba
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•
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socialuri faqtori•
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wyaldidobisgan dacva
•• miRebuli standartebi
• dacvis kondicia
regionis, mdinaris istoria
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garemo•
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wyaldidobis riski
istoriuli wyaldidobebi
faqtorebi, romlebic moqmedeben
wyaldidobis riskze
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wyaldidobis riskis analizi.
istoriuli midgoma, yvela tipis riskis da yvela tipis wyaldidobis analizi garkveuli regionisTvis. ar moicavs erTi tipis an eqstremalur wyaldidobis Seswavlas
hidrologiuri midgoma sixSiris analizi sxvadasxva tipis da gamomwvevi mizezebis wyaldidobis Seswavla,
hidravlikuri modelireba wylis gavrcelebaze da mis qcevaze
ekonomikuri zaralis gaangariSeba gaangariSebis Sedegad SesaZlebelia e.w. ngrevis albaTobis mrudis SemuSaveba sxvadasxva tipis an individualuri wyaldidobisTvis garkveuli regionis farglebSI Tu mTeli qveynisTvis
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riskis menejmentis procesis diagrama.
A. Drab ( 2003) Concepts of flood risk analysis methodology. In: Safety and Reliability – Bedford & van Gelder (eds)
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INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION
riskis analizis struqtura.
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I. riskis analizis
komponentebi
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I. terminologia -1.
safrTxe (H): albaToba imisa, rom mocemuli
movlena moxdeba mocemul regionSi drois
garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi.
riskis qveS myofi elementebi: mosaxleoba,
kerZo da saxelmwifo sakutreba,
ekonomika, da sxva obieqtebi, romlebic
ama Tu im movlenis riskis qveS imyofebian
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I. terminologia -2.
mowyvladoba (V): danakargis xarisxi riskis
qveS myofi elementebisTvis garkveuli
movlenis Sedegad. gamoixateba masStabSi 0
(araa zarali) 1-mde (totaluri zarali).
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I. terminologia -3.
Risk (R): garkveuli movleniT
ganpirobebuli mosalodneli zarali
(materialuri, adamianis, emociuri d.a.S).
riski mocemulia rogorc danakargis
albaToba.
RISK = Probability * Expected Damage (=Consequence)
€/year = (1/return period) * € of a specific event
RISK = Hazard * Elements at Risk * (Vulnerability *Value)
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II. riskis analizis komponentebi-Floodsite.
http://www.floodsite.net/
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http://www.floodsite.net/
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terminologia Floodsite.
http://www.floodsite.net/
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meTodologia Floodsite:danakargis dasaangariSeblad.
RISK = Probability * Expected Damage (=Consequence)
identifikacia
ngrevis kategoria.
wyaldidobis safrTxis
Sefaseba da sxvadasxva
ganmeoradobis da
intensivobis wyaldidobebis.
riskis qveS myofi
elementebis kartireba;
mowyvladobis analizi;
riskis ricxobriv
maCvenebelSi agdayvana.
http://www.floodsite.net/
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INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION
integrirebuli midgoma.
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INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION
identifikacia.
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identifikaciis fazebi
wyaldidobis problemis
identifikacia;
riskis gansazRvris masStabis
dadgena;
xelmisawvdomi resursebi da
iaraRebi;
monacemTa bazebi da sxva.
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masStabi.
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masStabis maxasiaTeblebi.
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ganvsazRvroT gamarTlebuli
midgoma.
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INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION
safrTxis Sefaseba da
zonireba.
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wyaldidobis safrTxis Sefaseba da zonireba.
ganvsazRvroT: adgilmdebareoba, sixSire da
magnituda (intensivoba) saSiSi movlenis.
Sedegad gvaqvs: (potenciuri) safrTxis ruka/
mgrZnobelobis ruka / safrTxis zonirebis ruka,
safrTxis maxasiaTeblebis rukebi magaliTad:
intensivobis, sixSiris gadanawilebaand frequency.
rogor:
RS imijebis interpretacia & savele samuSaoebi; hidravlikuri modelireba ( 1D and 1D/2D)movlenis sixSiris analizi d.a.S.
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wyaldidobis maxasiaTeblebi.
wylis siRrme;
wyaldidobis xangrZlivoba;
wylis siCqare;
sedimentacia;
datborvis sixSire;
wylis xarji;
wylis donis mateba;
sezonuroba;
ziriTadi
faqtorebi,
romlebic
zegavlenas axdenen
ngrevaze
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wyaldidobis
gavrcelebis ruka
DEMwylis siRrmis ruka
datborvis scenarios
SemuSaveba
Tiel-case-1
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datborvis saSiSroebis ruka
sxvadasxva ganmeoradobisTvis
Muhybuddin, 2004
Hazard Class: Max water depthHigh hazard 5 mMedium hazard 2.5 mLow Hazard 1 mNo Hazard 0 m
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INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION
riskis qveS myofi
elementebi.
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riskis qveS myofi elementebi.
ganvsazRvrot datborvis teritoriaze
arsebuli yvela struqtura da movaxdinot
maTi kategorizacia. (masStabis mixedviT)
gansazRvreT pirveli sarTulis simaRle;
(siRrmis dazianebis mrudisTvis)
wylis SeRwevadobis done.
gansazRvreT yvela obieqtis sidide;
sivrcul monacemebs daumateT monacemTa
abzebi mosaxleobaze, Senobis tipze,
obieqtis fasi d.a.S.
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riskis qveS myofi elementebi
kartireba.
mosaxleoba:mudmivi:
– mosaxleobis raodenoba
– simWidrove
– asakobrivi kompozicia
cvladi
– aqtiuroba
– sivrceSi gadanawileba
– droSi gadanawileba ( dRe-Rame)
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riski sicocxlisTvis
mosaxleobis sicocxles emuqreba safrTxe Tu:
wylis dinebis siCqare maRalia;
wylis done iwevs Zalian swrafad (wyalmovardna),
wylis siRrme didia;
bunebrivi an xelovnuri dambebis ngreviTaa gamowveuli datborva. rogorc aseTi, msgavsi konstruqciebi ukve risk faqtoria;
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siRrme-siCqare-usafrTxoebis
damokidebuleba
1: D = 1 – 1.55 v + 0.595 v2
2: D = 3.25 e -1,835 v
3: D = - 0.238 + 1.227 / v4: D = 4,7 e -0,642 v
5: D = - 0.28 + 5.65 / v
D= Depth in mv = Velocity in m/s
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wyaldidobis SedegebiT miRebuli
danakargis dadgenis parametrebi.
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Senobebi.
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sxvadasxva saxis monacemebis
kartireba aero fotodan.
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riskis qveS
myofi
elementebi
holandiuri
kategorizaciis
meTodi
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riskis qveS myofi
elementebis ruka
miwaTsargeblobis ruka
monacemTa bazebi!!!
Tiel-case-2
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INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION
mowyvladobis analizi
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mowyvladoba.
mowyvladoba (V): danakargis xarisxi riskis
qveS myofi elementebisTvis garkveuli
movlenis Sedegad. gamoixateba masStabSi 0
(araa zarali) 1-mde (totaluri zarali).
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mowyvladobis analizi
mowyvladobis analizi aris procesi,
mowyvladobis dadgenis ramodenime
tipis (yvelaze gavrcelebuli) Senoba-
nagebobis garkveuli movlenis mimarT;
miznad isaxavs davadginoT
urTierTdamokidebuleba mowyvladobis
xarisxsa da safrTxis albaTobis
Soris.
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struqturis tipebi.
Mud wall and Floor with Straw of paddy Roof material
RCC wall and Floor with RCC Roof material
©Sreyasi Maiti.
erTi da igive movlenis Sedegad romeli
ufro daziandeba?
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rogor ganvsazRvroT mowyvladoba?.
analitikuri meTodi;
empirikuli meTodi, rodesac viyenebT
wina movlenebis Sedegebs da maT
safuZvelze vadgenT ama Tu im tipis
mowyvladobas
savele samuSaoebi, rodesac vaTarebT
gamokiTxvas.
distanciuri zondirebis meTodebi.
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mowyvladobis rukebi.
Vulnerability function agriculture.
Tiel-case-3
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INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION
zianis da danakargis gaTvla.
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zianis da danakargis gaTvla
identifikacia da gazomva.
(fulad erTeulebSi agdayvana)
ziriTadi pirveladi, meoradi
Damage = Elements at Risk * (Vulnerability *Value)
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pirveladi efeqtis
magaliTebi
sikvdilianoba da dazianeba mosaxleobaSi;
pirutyvis da Sinauri cxovelebis
sikvdilianoba da daziaqneba;
struqturebis da maTi SigTavsis dazianeba;
infrastruqturis dazianeba;
sasoflo sameurneo savargulebis
dazianeba da ganadgureba; etc.
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meoradi daZianebis
magaliTebi
usaxlkarod darCena;
biznesis Seferxeba da SeCereba;
komunaluri momsaxureobis Seferxeba;
Temis finansuri xarjebi (gasufTaveba,
ganaxleba, remonti)
saxelmwifos mier gaweuli Tanxebi
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mniSvnelovani da
aramniSvnelovani zarali
danakargi, rogorc bunebrivi movlenis
Sedegi SeiZleba iyos mniSvnelovani an
nakleb mniSvnelovani
mniSvnelovania zarali rodesac, fuladi
sididis gaTvla SesaZlebelia
naklebad mniSvnelovania zarali rodesac
fulad erTeulSi gamosaxva araa
SesaZlebeli.
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INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION
riskis gaTvla
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riski (Rt)SesaZlebeli adamianis sikvdilianobis daTvla,
dazianebuli adamianebis raodenobis gaTvla,
sakuTrebisTvis miyenebuli zaralis daTvla.
riski ganisazRvreba rogors danakargis albaToba.
RISK = Probability * Expected Damage (Consequence)
€/year = (1/return period) * € of a specific event
RISK = Hazard * Elements at Risk * (Vulnerability *Value)
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prob
abili
tyflo
od s
tage
damage
damage
discharge
discharge
riskis Semsubuqeba.
Mitigation:Mitigation:
Lowering of the probability (see )
Higher discharge and less frequent;
At the same flood stage less damage
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