workshop on the draft 2007 ozone plan

Workshop on the Draft Workshop on the Draft 2007 Ozone Plan2007 Ozone Plan

February 8, 2007February 8, 2007

San Joaquin Valley San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control DistrictAir Pollution Control District

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Workshop AgendaWorkshop Agenda

•• Draft Plan and ProcessDraft Plan and Process•• ChallengesChallenges•• Scientific Basis of the PlanScientific Basis of the Plan•• The Plan for AttainmentThe Plan for Attainment•• Statewide StrategyStatewide Strategy•• Conclusions and CommentsConclusions and Comments

Plan Draft and ProcessPlan Draft and Process

Rick McVaigh, Deputy APCORick McVaigh, Deputy APCO

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Plan Developed with Extensive Plan Developed with Extensive Public InputPublic Input

• Public participation strong throughout Plan development: Town Hall meetings, public workshops, numerous meetings

• All Public comments considered• Meets or exceeds regulatory measures from all

other air districts• Exhaustive effort to identify all possible

measures• Welcome additional ideas and suggestions •• More opportunities for public input: More opportunities for public input:

–– 3030--day public comment period in Marchday public comment period in March–– Public hearing to adopt the plan: April 19Public hearing to adopt the plan: April 19

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2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

NOxtpd

Reductions from Regulatory Measures

Reductions with Incentives

Advanced Technologies

The Plan Will Achieve Monumental Reductions

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What does this plan do?What does this plan do?• Brings entire Valley into attainment as

expeditiously as possible– Over 50% of Valley’s population by 2015– Over 90% of Valley’s population by 2020

• ALL residents experience cleaner air quickly & continually

• Implements comprehensive list of new & innovative regulatory measures

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What does this plan do?What does this plan do?• Calls for major investment from public &

private sectors– Significant increase in State and Federal

funding– Application of advanced controls by Valley

businesses– Participation and support by every Valley

resident• Demands major advancements in

pollution-control technology• Provides for public accountability/regular

progress

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Journey to Journey to AttainmentAttainment

2005

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Journey to Journey to AttainmentAttainment

2015

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Journey to Journey to AttainmentAttainment

2020

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Journey to Journey to AttainmentAttainment

2023

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80% of NOx emissions in 2005 80% of NOx emissions in 2005 were from mobile sourceswere from mobile sources

Stationary and Area Sources

Mobile Sources

20%

80%

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Need Significant Increase in Need Significant Increase in Incentive FundingIncentive Funding

• Regulations alone cannot achieve necessary reductions– Over 85% of necessary reductions will come from

regulatory measures• 80% of Valley pollution is from mobile

sources– Without expedited turnover no reductions in

emissions are realized from new state and federal tailpipe standards

• Must expedite fleet turnover to quickly bring all Valley areas into attainment

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Need Significant Increase in Need Significant Increase in Incentive FundingIncentive Funding

• Funding is needed to bring major segments of Valley population into attainment before 2020

• Plan calls for $188 million$188 million per year until attainment is reached

• Need united Valley lobbying for state and federal funding

• Detailed action plan for funds

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Advanced Technology Advanced Technology DevelopmentDevelopment

• Calls for major advancements in technology• Promote technology advancement by:

– Forcing new technology through new regulations– Investment in research and development

• Some areas to explore advanced technology– Combustion controls for stationary & mobile sources– Alternative fuels – Energy efficiency– Goods and people movement infrastructure– Funding to accelerate on-road/off-road fleet turnover– Funding to expedite application of clean technology

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Health Benefits: Health Benefits: What will the 2007 What will the 2007 Ozone Plan & 2008 PM2.5 Plan accomplish?Ozone Plan & 2008 PM2.5 Plan accomplish?

• Health Benefits, each year– 460 fewer premature deaths– 325 fewer new cases of chronic bronchitis– 3,230 fewer cases of acute bronchitis in children – 260 fewer hospital admissions – 23,300 fewer asthma attacks – 188,000 fewer lost school days– 3,000 fewer lost work days

• The Valley will save more than $3 billion/year from air quality-related health improvements

ChallengesChallenges

Jessica Hafer, Jessica Hafer, Air Quality SpecialistAir Quality Specialist

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Ozone FormationOzone Formation• Not emitted directly, but forms when

emissions from human activities react in sunlight

• NOx and VOC• Summertime

problem• Smog• Results in serious

health impacts

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Challenges in Controlling OzoneChallenges in Controlling Ozone

San JoaquinSan JoaquinStanislausStanislaus

MercedMercedMaderaMadera

FresnoFresnoTulareTulareKingsKings

KernKern

Topography –Pollution is constrained by surrounding mountains

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Challenges in Controlling OzoneChallenges in Controlling OzoneMeteorology –• Hot, dry summers are conducive to ozone

formation• Temperature inversions limit vertical mixing• Winds transport pollutants throughout the

Valley

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Challenges in Controlling OzoneChallenges in Controlling Ozone

Percent Population Increase

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CaliforniaSan Joaquin Valley

Increased population –More vehicles and consumer products increases emissions of ozone precursors, undermining progress made through regulations.

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Challenges in Controlling OzoneChallenges in Controlling OzoneNOx

Stationary & Area

Sources20%

Mobile Sources

80%

VOC

Stationary & Area

Sources55%

Mobile Sources

45%

Jurisdictional Challenges –A large portion of the Valley’s emissions is outside the regulatory authority of the District. State and federal regulations are needed. The District will need to use innovative strategies to achieve further reductions.

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Challenges in Controlling OzoneChallenges in Controlling OzoneNo “silver bullet,” even for the worst ozone days.

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2020EmissionsInventory

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NOx carrying capacity for Ozone

Scientific Basis of the PlanScientific Basis of the Plan

Don Hunsaker, D. Don Hunsaker, D. EnvEnv..Supervising Air Quality PlannerSupervising Air Quality Planner

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Carrying CapacityCarrying Capacity• Ozone “carrying capacity” is the maximum

amount of NOx and VOC emissions that would allow for attainment of the ozone standard

• Modelers create “carrying capacity diagrams” by running model with differing NOx and VOC emissions, and plotting resulting ozone levels

• Repeat for different monitoring sites• Identify site(s) with smallest percent of

emissions supporting attainment level for ozone; this drives attainment strategy

• Shapes of curves in diagrams depicts effectiveness of NOx vs. VOC emission control

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Ozone Model Response At Arvin Monitor Site Ozone Model Response At Arvin Monitor Site to Reductions in 2020 VOC and NOx Emissionsto Reductions in 2020 VOC and NOx Emissions

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SJ ValleyCarryingCapacityDiagram

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Unconstrained fundingUnconstrained funding• Staff reviewed all possible regulatory and

incentive-based reductions regardless of funding availability

• Results show that replacing all vehicles, locomotives and off-road engines with latest and cleanest available units will not provide needed reductions and will cost $60 billion– 2012 NOx reductions of 250 tpd but need 312 tpd– 2020 NOx reductions of 91 tpd but need 101 tpd

• Need funds in hand for SIP credit for incentives

The Plan for AttainmentThe Plan for Attainment

Guiding Principles andGuiding Principles and44--Faceted Control StrategyFaceted Control Strategy

Scott Nester, Scott Nester, Director of Planning Director of Planning

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Our Guiding PrinciplesOur Guiding Principles1. With public health as our number one priority,

meet federal ambient standards as expeditiously as practicable.

2. Recognize that Valley’s economic vitality and prosperity are essential to achieve public health goals.

3. Recognize that no “silver bullet” exists –every sector, from the public through all levels of government, business, and industry, must reduce emissions.

4. Achieve emissions reductions in the most cost-effective way possible to get the “biggest bang for the buck.”

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Our Guiding Principles (cont.)Our Guiding Principles (cont.)5. When scheduling regulatory actions such as

rules and strategies, allow adequate time for public participation.

6. Consider total impact on businesses; allow reasonable time for implementation of current and future rules.

7. Give precedence to NOx emissions reductions to assist with attainment of the federal standard for PM. NOx emissions contribute to both ozone and PM formation.

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Our Guiding Principles (cont.)Our Guiding Principles (cont.)8. Take advantage of imminent new

technologies & allow more time to get more reductions if needed.

9. Don’t let “one-size-fits-all” governmental policies and bureaucracy stand in the way of timely, innovative, and cost-effective emissions reductions.

10. Use sound science in assessing public health impacts, the magnitude of emissions from various source categories, and availability, effectiveness, and feasibility of emissions control measures.

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Our Guiding Principles (cont.)Our Guiding Principles (cont.)11. Do not rely exclusively on the state and

federal government to reduce mobile source emissions. Consistent with state and federal laws, find effective and innovative regulatory and incentive measures at the local level to address mobile source emissions.

12. Consider seasonal, episodic, and regional measures to more strategically target limited resources for optimum air quality benefits throughout the Valley.

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FourFour--Facet Control StrategyFacet Control Strategy

1. District Stationary Source Regulations2. District Incentive Programs3. District Innovative Programs and

Strategies4. Local, State, and Federal Controls

Stationary Source Stationary Source Control MeasuresControl Measures

Maria Stobbe, Maria Stobbe, Planning Manager Planning Manager

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Stationary Source Regulatory Stationary Source Regulatory Control MeasuresControl Measures

• Chapter 6 of the Plan• Exhaustive evaluation

– Analyzed all District NOx & VOC rules– Comparison with other districts: South

Coast, Bay Area, & Ventura County• Investigated control measures from

other nonattainment areas- South Coast, Sacramento, Houston

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• Traditional Command-and-Control Rules– 19 New and Amended Rules– All to be completed by 2011 & in place by

2012

• Achieves a robust – 31 tpd of VOC & NOx in 2012– 23 tpd of VOC & NOx in 2023

Stationary Source Regulatory Stationary Source Regulatory Control MeasuresControl Measures

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Control MeasureControl MeasureSource Categories Source Categories

Waste disposalComposting, Biosolids, Greenwaste

Solvent UseCleaning, Coatings & Adhesives

FuelGasoline Storage & TransferAviation Fuel Storage

Combustion SourcesBoilers and Flares

AgricultureOpen Burning, & Confined Animal Feeding Operations

Electrical GenerationTurbines

IndustrialPolystrene FoamGlass Melting

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• Studies to Provide Background Info Needed for Next set of Control Measures– 20 Source Categories– Completion Dates in the Plan 2008 to 2012– Reports to be presented in a public forum

to engage public and industry in identifying additional opportunities for emission reductions.

Future/Feasibility StudiesFuture/Feasibility Studies

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Oil & Gas SumpsHeavy Crude Oil ComponentsRefinery Turnaround Units, Vacuum Devices, and Wastewater SeparatorsHOTS & Gauge Tanks

IndustrialReduction in Animal MatterPesticide Fumigation

ChambersAsphalt Roofing

CommercialBakeriesAsphalt Roofing

BurningPrescribed BurningOpen Burning Biomass

Incentives

Combustion SourcesSolid Fuel Fired BoilersSmall BoilersDryers

Electrical GenerationIC Engines

FuelGasoline Storage & TransferAviation Fuel Storage

Solvent UseCleaning, Coatings & Adhesives

Future/Feasibility Studies Future/Feasibility Studies Source CategoriesSource Categories

Incentive MeasuresIncentive Measures

Jeff Findley, Program Manager Jeff Findley, Program Manager Emission Reduction Emission Reduction

Incentive Program (ERIP)Incentive Program (ERIP)

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District IncentivesDistrict Incentives• Purpose of Incentive Programs

– Financial incentives are provided to assist in attaining air quality standards by:• Early introduction of new

technologies ahead of new standards and regulations

• Promotion of alternative transportation measures to reduce vehicle trips and vehicle miles traveled

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District Incentives District Incentives (cont)(cont)

• Incentive Program Successes1992 - 2006

– District awarded over $135 million

– Reduced 52,000 tons of lifetime emission reductions (NOx, PM, VOC)

– Historical lifetime cost-effectiveness of approximately $2,600 per ton

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Incentive Control MeasuresIncentive Control Measures• Passenger & Medium-Duty Vehicle

Replacement• Forklift Replacement• School Boiler Replacement • Ag Tractor Replacement• Diesel Ag Engine Replacement• Diesel Truck Replacement• Construction Equipment Replacement• Locomotive Engine Replacement• Off-Road Portable Engine Replacement

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Proposed Funding AmountsProposed Funding Amounts• Proposed Funding 2007-2023

$26.9 million - Passenger & Med-Duty Vehicles$11.8 million - Forklifts$12.3 million - School Boilers$407.3 million - Ag Tractors$186.5 million - Diesel Ag Engines$2.1 billion - Diesel Trucks$52.9 million - Construction Equipment$65.2 million - Locomotive Engines$89.4 million - Off-Road Portable Engines$3 billion

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Funding SourcesFunding Sources• Existing District Funding

$11.0 million - DMV Surcharge Fees*$9.5 million - Carl Moyer Program**$19.5 million - ISR/Mitigation Contracts$40 million/year

• New State and Federal Funding Needed$137 - $150 million/year

$188 million (average) per year needed*Reduced by $5.8 million/year in 2016 unless reauthorized ** Reduced by $9.5 million/year in 2016 unless reauthorized

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Funding RestrictionsFunding Restrictions• Many available funding sources restrict

use– Only certain project types are eligible– Cost-effectiveness limits– Specific time frames for expenditure

Innovative Strategies Innovative Strategies and Programsand Programs

Maria Stobbe, Maria Stobbe, Planning Manager Planning Manager

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Innovative StrategiesInnovative Strategies& Programs& Programs

• Guiding Principle #3 – no one “silver bullet” alone gets us into attainment– Encourage all sectors to reduce emissions– Combine voluntary & regulatory approaches

• Promotes the use of the latest advances in air pollution science and the cleanest technologies

• Turn “waste” by-products into low-emission forms of energy/fuel

• Result in more energy independence, reduced GHG

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Innovative StrategiesInnovative Strategies& Programs& Programs

• Green Contracting• Expanded Spare-The-Air Efforts• Employer-Based Trip Reduction• Heat Island Mitigation• Alternative Energy Production• Energy Conservation• Enhanced Indirect Source Review• Episodic and Regionally-Focused CMs• Advanced Emission Reduction Options (AERO)

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Innovative StrategiesInnovative Strategies& Programs& Programs

Features• Assured air quality benefit• Built-in flexibility• Cost effective• SIP-creditable: surplus, enforceable,

quantifiable, and permanent.

Local, Federal and State Local, Federal and State ControlsControls

Scott Nester, Scott Nester, Director of PlanningDirector of Planning

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Local, Federal, and Local, Federal, and State ControlsState Controls

• NOx reductions are critical to cleaner air in the San Joaquin Valley

• Most NOx emissions are subject to regulation by state and federal agencies

• Local agencies can influence mobile source NOx emissions via land-use planning, transportation policies/programs

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Local MeasuresLocal Measures• Valley Metropolitan Planning Organizations

(MPOs) & member jurisdictions adopted three sets of Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) in past 5 yrs for air quality plans

• Agencies are implementing the local RACM approach that will be documented in the next version of the plan. Approach includes:– Evaluating potential RACM– Adopting policy for cost-effective funding

• In addition, policy and program tools developed under the Valley Blueprint Project could lead to more post-2008 emission reductions

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Federal MeasuresFederal Measures• Heavy Duty Diesel Truck and Vehicle

Standards – Phase in schedule through 2010. Significant

reduction in PM and NOx• Cleaner Burning Diesel Fuel

– Introduced in 2006 to reduce nitrogen oxides and particulate matter and allow for use of cleaner engines.

• Non-road Diesel Engines – Tier 4 NOx and NMHC Standards – 2011 to 2014

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Federal MeasuresFederal Measures• Locomotives

– ULSD for all trains will be required by 2012– Tier 2 standard in place since 2005– EPA Marine/Locomotive Notice of Proposed

Rulemaking expected shortly to develop Tier 3 and Tier 4 standard. Rule expected to be final in 2008.

• Harbor Craft Emission Standards– Applicable to new engines since 2004 resulting

in 50 percent less NOx than uncontrolled

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Federal MeasuresFederal Measures• Off-road Recreational Vehicle Evaporative

Standards– Beginning in 2008, will control evaporation

from fuel tank and hoses • Funding

– CMAQ - Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement Program

– Smartway Transport Partnership - National Loans Initiative for Small Trucking Companies

– West Coast Diesel Collaborative

State Control StrategyState Control Strategy

Jeff Lindberg, ARBJeff Lindberg, ARB

WrapWrap--Up and CommentsUp and Comments

Rick McVaigh, Deputy APCORick McVaigh, Deputy APCO

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ConclusionConclusion• Need to step-up to extreme• Technologies do not exist to meet earlier

timelines• Extreme status will impact industry:

– More Stationary sources will require Title V permits

– More Ag sources (including hundreds of addl. dairies) will require permits under State law

– Additional NSR requirements for some major sources

• Still looking for input

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Comments and QuestionsComments and Questions

Please limit remarks to 3 minutes to allow more attendees an opportunity to

comment.

We encourage you to submit written comments by February 26.

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Next StepsNext Steps• Comment period on this Draft closes

on February 26, 2007• Receive and File, March 15, 2007• 30-day public comment period in March• Governing Board hearing April 19, 2007• ARB hearing in Fresno in June• Final Plan due to EPA – June 15, 2007

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Send comments to:Send comments to:Jessica Hafer

Jessica.Hafer@valleyair.org(559) 230-5800

Comments due February 26, 2007, 5:30 pmMore information - including listserves -

is available atwww.valleyair.org

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