wise grocery weather experts present the weis weather scale created by meteorologists ryan breton,...

WISE GROCERY WEATHER EXPERTS PRESENT

The Weis Weather Scale

CREATED BYMeteorologists Ryan Breton, Faith Eherts, Bret Eilertson, Andrea Paparelli, Dan Rupp

Weis’ status among grocers:Focus study – Superstorm Sandy

Social Media Before & During Sandy

Did not stand out in advertising or social media. Did not stand out in terms of supply available.

D batteries, milk, bread, water ran out at the same time as other local stores

News of storm came from local media. Most Weis are a 24/7 operation, but several had to

close due to power outages. Estimated losses of over $125,000 per affected

store in perishables. Those that were renovated were able to

continue operations on safely located and efficient generators (few).renovations are still underway

Bolded bullets indicate points in which our analyses will improve the company.

Meteorology History Forecasting based on weather lore, farmers almanac,

and personal observations Instruments measured temperature, moisture, pressure,

and wind Observation based forecasting became prominent Radiosondes released every 12 hours Numerical weather prediction (Bjerknes and Richardson) 1940s team of meteorologists began to use modern

computers Eventually developed into super computers Satellite (Visible, Infrared imagery)

Forecasting HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) for short-

range forecasts MOS (Model Output Statistics) for 3 days in

advance GFS LAMP (Global Forecast System Local Aviation

MOS Program) for short term visibility, winds, lightning, cloud height and temperatures

ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) Known for its accuracy. Will be used for medium to long range forecasting

Forecasting HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) for short-range

forecasts Path & intensity of storms and cells

Example: July, 8, 2014 at 7pm

9-hour HRRR projection: Actual Doppler Radar:

What is a Weather Index?• Visual tool developed using various weather

variables and their impacts

• Organized in such a way that an individual can look at it and make snap decisions regarding various operation components – at both the corporate and store levels

• Weather index is applicable to all areas of the company’s operations

Timeframes and Their Data Sources Short Range

Between 6 and 24 hours: Designed to give specific information about weather that is occurring or imminent

Cold Season – mid-October to mid-April Warm Season – mid-April to mid-October Surface Data, Satellite/Radar, High-Resolution Computer

Models Medium Range

1-7 Days: Designed to give information about storm threats GFS (Global Forecast System), NAM (North American Model),

ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting)

Long Range 1-3 weeks: Threats to produce, goods due to drought, freezes,

etc.nationwide

Data from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

Update Availability

Short Range Active Weather Days – Especially

after threat has been identified in Medium Range Index

Medium Range Twice daily

Long Range Twice a week on Mondays and

Thursdays

All 3 Ranges Will UtilizeThe Same Color Code

Index Value and Color Weather Impact0 – None None

1 – Green Low2 – Yellow Moderate3 – Orange High

4 – Red Index Value & Color5 – Purple Extreme

Short-Range Index: COLD SEASON

Variable Value

Precipitation Amount

Precipitation Type

Average Visibility

Temperature Wind Speed

Rain Snow

0 0-0.1” 0” None Unrestricted >40 <5 mph1 0.1-0.75” <3” Rain 4-5 miles 30-40 5-15 mph2 0.75-1.5” 3-5” Rain & Snow 3-4 miles 20-30 15-25 mph3 1.5-3” 5-8” Rain, Snow, or

Sleet2-3 miles 10-20 25-35 mph

4 3-5” 8-12” Rain, Snow, Sleet or Freezing Rain

1-2 miles 0-10 35-45 mph

5 >5” >12” Combination of All

<1 mile <0 >45 mph

Index value = 0.5(Precipitation Amount) + 0.25(Precipitation Type) + 0.1(Visibility) + 0.1(Temperature) + 0.05(Wind Speed)

Short-Range Index: COLD SEASONIndex value = 0.5(Precipitation Amount) + 0.25(Precipitation Type) + 0.1(Visibility) + 0.1(Temperature) + 0.05(Wind Speed)

Scranton = 4.05 = 0.5(4) + 0.25(5) + 0.1(5) + 0.1(2) + 0.05(2)Philadelphia = 1.55 = 0.5(1) + 0.25(2) + 0.1(3) + 0.1(1) + 0.05(3)

Short-Range Index: WARM SEASONIndex value = 0.5(Precipitation Amount) + 0.25(SPC Convective

Outlook Category) + 0.15(Duration) + 0.05(Wind Speed) + 0.05(Temperature)

Variable Value

Amount of Rain

SPC Convective Outlook

Duration Wind Speed

Temperature

0 0-0.1” N/A N/A <5 mph 60-701 0.1-0.75” Marginal <1 hour 5-15 mph 70-802 0.75-1.5” Slight 1-3 hours 15-25 mph 80-853 1.5-3” Enhanced 3-6 hours 25-35 mph 85-904 3-5” Moderate 6-12 hours 35-45 mph 90-955 >5” High 12-24

hours>45 mph >95

Short-Range Index: WARM SEASONState College = 2.9 = 0.5(3) + 0.25(3) + 0.15(3) + 0.05(2) + 0.05(2)Philadelphia = 1.15 = 0.5(1) + 0.25(1) + 0.15(1) + 0.05(2) + 0.05(3)

Index value = 0.5(Precipitation Amount) + 0.25(SPC Convective Outlook Category) + 0.15(Duration) + 0.05(Wind Speed) +

0.05(Temperature)

Medium-Range IndexIndex value = 0.5(Precipitation Amount) + 0.15(Precipitation Type)

+ 0.15(Duration) + 0.1(Temperature) + 0.1(Wind Speed)

Variable Value

Precipitation Type of Precipitation

Duration Temperature Wind SpeedRain Snow

Warm Season

Cold Season

0 T – 0.25”

T –1” N/A <3 hours N/A N/A Light & Var.

1 0.25 - 5”

1 - 3” Rain 3-6 hours 60-70 >40 <15 mph

2 0.75 - 1.5”

3 - 5” Rain & Snow

6-18 hours 70-80 30-40 15-25 mph

3 1.5 - 3” 6-10” Rain & Sleet

18-36 hours

80-90 20-30 25-35 mph

4 3 - 5” 10-12”+

Rain & Freezing Rain

36-48 hours

90-95 10-20 35-45 mph

5 >5” >12 ” All Frozen Precipitation

>48 hours >95 <10 >45 mph

Medium-Range IndexIndex value = 0.5(Precipitation Amount) + 0.15(Precipitation Type)

+ 0.15(Duration) + 0.1(Temperature) + 0.1(Wind Speed)

State College = 3.85 = 0.5(4) + 0.15(5) + 0.15(2) + 0.1(4) + 0.1(1)Philadelphia = 2.1= 0.5(2) + 0.15(2) + 0.15(2) + 0.1(4) + 0.1(1)

Long-Range IndexIndex value = 0.5(Precipitation Departure) + 0.3(Duration) +

0.2(Temperature)

Variable Value

Departure from Normal Precipitation

Duration TemperatureWarm Season

Cold Season

0 N/A N/A N/A N/A1 Normal 7-10 days 60-70 >402 Slightly

Above/Below10-12 days 70-80 30-40

3 Moderately Above/Below

12-14 days 80-90 20-30

4 Highly Above/Below

2-3 weeks 90-95 10-20

5 Severely Above/Below

3+ weeks >95 <10

Long-Range Index

New York State = 1 = 0.5(1) + 0.3(1) + 0.2(1)Southern California = 3.3 = 0.5(3) + 0.3(4) + 0.2(3)

Index value = 0.5(Precipitation Departure) + 0.3(Duration) + 0.2(Temperature)

How Will You Receive the Index Via e-mail Developed App available for

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