weather risk in production agriculture

Weather Risk in Production Agriculture

May 19, 2021Eric Snodgrass

eric.snodgrass@nutrien.com @ag_weather

Nutrien Science FellowPrincipal Atmospheric Scientist

Nutrien Ag Solutions

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3-Day

5-Day

7-Day10-Day

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A brief discussion about the limits of predictability (what we are capable of doing…)Arctic Outbreak: February 2021

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Did Seasonal Forecasts from 2020 Find the Flash Drought Early?

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Bow Echoes

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Saturday Aug 15, 2020 Waiting on NDVI imagery to show change

~700 miles, Avg Speed 55 mph, 14 hours 500+ Severe Wind Reports, quarter to golfball sized hail

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Bosart and Gausini 2016

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But we need this type of storm system…Majority of Summer rainfall comes from them. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/5/jcli-d-18-0559.1.xml

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Week #2 ECMWF

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June 2021 ECMWF “Weeklies”

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Summer Drought Concerns

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Best Yielding Years - 2017, 2016, 2009, 2005, 2004, 1994, 1992 (retrograding ridge)

What happens? • Jet stream Stays South • High Momentum in

Westerlies • Resists Blocking and

Stagnation

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Worst Yielding Years - 2013, 2012,1995, 1991, 1988, 1983 (triple ridge)

What happens? • Jet stream Migrates

North • Westerlies Lose

Momentum during July and August

• Triple Ridge Block Develops

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Is there a cycle to Cornbelt drought?

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Are there pre-season indicators?

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-10

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Jan-

80Dec

-80

Nov

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Oct-8

2Se

p-83

Aug

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Jul-85

Jun-

86May

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Apr

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Mar

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Feb-

90Ja

n-91

Dec

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Nov

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Oct-9

3Se

p-94

Aug

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Jul-96

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Dec

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08May

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12Ja

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Nov

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Oct-1

5Se

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Aug

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Jul-18

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-20

PACIFIC MERIDIONAL MODE (1980 - 2021)

34-60

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-30

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-10

0

10

20

30

Iowa Corn Yield Anomaly

Series2

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What do those cool ocean temps historically mean? (-PMM)

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ENSO Forecast

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June-July-August Temperature and Precipitation Outlook (ECMWF)

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June-July-August Temperature and Precipitation Outlook (NMME)

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June-July-August Temperature and Precipitation Outlook (IRI - Columbia)

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New Climate “Normals” 1991-2020

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Primary Corn and Soybean Belt: 70 year Temperature and Precipitation Trends

Maximum Temperatures (-0.5°F) Minimum Temperatures (+2°F) Average Temperatures (+.9°F)

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Observed Impacts of Temperature Change

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-length-growing-season US Climate Assessment

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Increased Precipitation VariabilityApril-October +5.5” of Total Rainfall

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