washington state population and employment data … state population and employment data 2010-2030...

Washington State Population and Employment Data

2010-2030

Implications for Community and Technical Colleges

Educational Attainment for All

April 16, 2014

1

Population trends and projections for community and technical college participation:

HighlightsPopulation growth will be smaller than what occurred in

the preceding 20 year period (1991-2010) with marked differences in the growth within age groups.

If current college participation rates are maintained, population growth will mean 10% growth in state and Running Start enrollments by 2030, substantially less growth than occurred between 1991-2010.

Regional differences for population growth, educational attainment, race/ethnicity, and limited English.

Future skill requirements needed for employment demand substantial growth in long certificates and 2 year degrees. 2

Population change in the coming 20 years will be smaller than the previous 20 years

45%

11%

15%

8%

13% 12%

15-19 Years 20-44 Years 15-44 Years

Population Change 1991-2010 and 2011-2030

1991-2010 2011-2030

3

High school graduating classes will be smaller than 2010 peak until 2027, when they reach a new peak

4

At current participation rates, headcount will increase 10% over next 20 years, about half the rate during preceding twenty years

5

5,9118,134

3,119 2,8153,734

1,961 2,8361,297

29,80618%

9%

9%

8%

11%11%

12%

5%

10%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Central & East King Northwest Pierce Snohomish South Sound Southwest Spokane WashingtonState

Total Headcount Enrollment Growth to 2030 if 2012-13 Participation Rates Are Maintained

Total Headcount Growth Ages 15-65 % Growth

Student headcount growth due to population changes by age will vary among regions

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Central &East

King Northwest Pierce Snohomish SouthSound

Southwest Spokane

Headcount Growth (State + Running Start) by Region if 2013 Participation Rates Are Maintained to 2030

15-19 20-24 25-44 45-64 65+

6

Washingtonians of color are in higher proportions in the central and east regions, King, Snohomish and Pierce counties

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Central &East

Northwest Southwest SouthSound

Spokane King Snohomish Pierce WashingtonState

Population of Color 15-44 Years2010 Census

Black/African American Native American Asian Pacific Islander Two or More Races Hispanic

7

64% of Washingtonians 18-44 years old have less than an associate degree

25%

12% 13%8% 9%

12% 11% 12% 12%

28% 27% 28%25%

17%

30%27% 28%

24%25%

32% 31%34%

23%

30% 28%30%

28%

22%

29% 29%33%

51%

28%

34%29%

36%

CENTRAL & EAST NORTHWEST SOUTHWEST SPOKANE KING PIERCE SNOHOMISH SOUTH SOUND WASHINGTONSTATE

Educational Attainment Populations 18-44 Years

Less than HS HS Some College,No Degree Associate Degree or Higher

8

Adults with limited English most heavily concentrated in central and east regions, King and Snohomish counties

16%

4%6%

4%3%

12%

9%

6%

Central andEast

Northwest Southwest SouthSound

Spokane King Snohomish Pierce

% Regional Population 18-64"Speaks English Less Than Very Well"

Statewide-9%

9

To meet demand for certificates and associate degrees, CTCs have to complete 46,000 to 55,200 students every year from by 2021. Target increases substantially in 2025 and

again in 2030.

2016-21* 2025** 2030**

Total Annual Completions Needed for Post Secondary 100,856 – 129,526 148,800 177,000

Mid-level Completions Needed 55,532 – 66,049 78,500 90,000

Total CTC System Completions 46,105- 54,836 65,200 77,600

Growth over 2016 average of range34% 59%

10

*This is from 2013 A Skilled and Educated Workforce (Joint Report). The low range is the entry education level (BLS) and the high is the competitive education level (ACS).**Extrapolated by SBCTC staff from 2021 going forward.

11

• Slower enrollment growth, especially among new high school graduates. Impact on degree production goals?

• Most growth by people of color and 35-44 year olds. Impact on outreach and access strategies?

• Growing gap between employment demand and CTC supply (10% enrollment growth, 59% employment growth). Can’t meet economic demand with population growth. Improve access for people of color, placebound, working adults without college credentials, people who are not college ready?

• More older students. Focus on acceleration and competencies?

Some Implications for community and technical colleges

12

• Greatest growth needed in basic skills and workforce training. Impact on funding?

• More completions needed. Focus on early interventions, student retention and completions?

• Enrollment accountability or student achievement accountability?

• Rising cost of college. What can we do to reduce costs? Dual credit, open textbooks, eLearning, acceleration?

• Transitions are key. We must have academic alignment among sectors and smoother handoffs.

Some Implications for community and technical colleges