v ramanathan the ucop research lunch series june 10, 12 -1 pm

V RamanathanTHE UCOP RESEARCH LUNCH SERIES

June 10, 12 -1 pm

From CFC’s to Cook Stoves: How to Stop Global Warming

Sources of greenhouse Gases and Aerosols in Brown Clouds.Ramanathan 2007

Global AtmosphereGlobal Atmosphere

Ramanathan 2007

Source: Washington, NCAR, 2005

Ramanathan, Barkstrom and Harrison, Phys Today, 1989

25 Wm

3

The Greenhouse Blanket

1980

Global Temperature Departures from 1961-1990 Mean

Forcing at 2005

CO2

BC

MASKNet forcing

Heat Trapped by CO2, Non-CO2 gases, Black Carbon and Masking by Sulfates-Nitrates-Organic Aerosols

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100280

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Even with 50% reductions by 2050, CO2 will Increase to 440 PPM; Commit another 1 C warming

.. Total additional investment needs in technology and deployment between now and 2050 would amount to USD 45 trillion, or 1.1% of average annual global GDP over the period”, IEA, 2008

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 20050

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N.AmericaEuropeFSUS. AmericaEAsiaSEAsia+Aust/NZIndiaMiddle EastAfricaShipping

Data: Smith, PNNL

The Unmasking has begun in full force:

Abstract. The infrared bands of chlorofluorocarbons and chlorocarbons enhance the atmospheric greenhouse effect. This enhancement may lead to an appreciable increase in the global surface temperature if the atmospheric concentrations of these compounds reach values of the order of 2 parts per billion.

1975

One molecule of CFC has the same greenhouse effect as the addition of more than 10000 molecules of Carbon Dioxide to the Atmosphere

- carbon-containing particulate matter (PM) - absorbs light- results from inefficient and incomplete combustion- emitted together with CO2, CO, organic particulate matter, SO2

Black Carbon

some 60% of the total BC emissions is amenable to control

Avenues for limiting global warming to 20C

I.Reduce the rate of thickening of the blanket: CO2 levels to peak below 440ppm…(Grandchildren will benefit)

II.Offset the unmasking with reductions in warming air-pollutants: Black Carbon and Ozone….. (We will benefit)

III: Thin the Blanket: (Children will Benefit)

a. Methane (10 yrs) and HFCs (1 to 10 years)….. b. Develop Scalable technologies to extract BC, Methane and CO2 from the air

The Copenhagen Accord for Limiting Global Warming:Criteria, Constraints and Available Avenues

Ramanathan and Xu, Submitted to PNAS, 2010

Project Surya on the Web: www.projectsurya.org

3 Billion can not afford fossil fuel

Smoke and BC have Major Impacts on Health; Water Security and Food Security

•Greatest advantage for Policy Actions 1. Short Lived in the air ( about a week or less)2. Immediate response to mitigation laws3. Response felt locally by improved air quality4. Will reduce fatalities due to indoor and

outdoor air pollution

November 14 2006 December 21 2001

Ramanathan 2007

NASA-MODIS

Nature 2007Spying on Brown Clouds with Drones

CALIPSO Aerosol Depth:

Ramanathan et al, Nature, 2007

The working group consists of glaciologists, climate scientists, meteorologists, hydrologists, physicists, chemists, mountaineers, and lawyers organized by the Pontifical Academy of Sciences at the Vatican, to contemplate the observed retreat of the mountain glaciers, its causes and consequences. This report resulted from a workshop in April 2011 at the Vatican.

Ajai, L. Bengtsson, D. Breashears, P.J. Crutzen, S. Fuzzi, W. Haeberli, W.W. Immerzeel, G. Kaser, C. Kennel, A. Kulkarni, R. Pachauri, T. H. Painter, J. Rabassa, V. Ramanathan, A. Robock, C. Rubbia, L. Russell, M. Sánchez Sorondo, H.J. Schellnhuber, S. Sorooshian, T. F. Stocker, L.G. Thompson, O.B. Toon, D. Zaelke

V. RamanathanStockholm U, May 19

ANIL V. KULKARNIDISTINGUISHED VISITING SCIENTIST

DIVECHA CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGEINDIAN INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE

BANGALORE 560012 INDIA

Glacier Retreat in the Himalaya

RETREAT OF GLACIERS IN INDIAN HIMALAYA

Parbati (1990-06: SAC)

Sara Umaga (1961-2005: GSI)

Gangotri (1976-1996: GSI)

Dokriani Bamak (2004-2007: WIHG)

Hamta (1961-2005: GSI)

Samudra Tapu (1993-2000: SAC)

Pindari (1966-2007: GSI)

Guatam et al. (2009)

Is the Monsoon Slowing Down?

Web photo

Dash et al, JGR, 2009

Simulated Changes due to Smokeless CookingRamanathan and Carmichael, 2008

Column Black Carbon2000 to 2005, as is 2000-2005 Without BC from Cooking

Major findings from the Pilot Phase of Project Surya

1. Black carbon emissions from biomass andfossil fuels in rural IndiaAtmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 10845–10874, 2011

2. A Cellphone Based System for LargeScale Monitoring of Black CarbonUnder Review in Atmospheric Environment

3. Real-time assessment of Black Carbonpollution in Indian households dueto traditional and improved biomasscookstovesSubmitted to Environmental Science and Technology

National Science Foundation

Qualcomm

Cell-Phone BasedSoot monitoring SystemNithya Ramanathan et al, 2011UCLA Group

Figure 2: (upper panels) BC emissions of different cookstoves in breathing and plume zones (left) grouped by stove class, and (right) displayed individually. (lower panels) Fuel use and ratio of mean BC concentration (in plume zone) during cooking to fuel use for different stoves (left) grouped by stove class and (right) displayed individually. In each box-plot, the dark line represents the median value, with the colored box showing the interquartile (25th-75th percentile)range (IQR). The whiskers extendto 1.5xIQR, with outliers denotedby circles. Mean values for each set of measurements are plotted as red triangles. A red star under the box means that the mean value for that stove is statistically different than the mean value for the traditional mud stove (at the 95% confidence level, p<0.05). Data shown are for hardwood fuel tests only.

Technology: Documenting the Mitigation

Phase 1: 5000 to 10000households

Surya:Surya:

A SustainableA SustainableBusiness Business Model?Model?

, ABCs

Bottom to Top of the Pyramid

The four billion people who live on less than $2 per day constitute the bottom of the economic and energy pyramid.

CAN WE STEERTHEM INTO A SUSTAINABLENON-FOSSIL FUEL PATHWAY AND ENABLE THEM TO CLIMB THE ENERGYPYRAMID?