v ramanathan the ucop research lunch series june 10, 12 -1 pm
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From CFC’s to Cook Stoves: How to Stop Global Warming. V Ramanathan THE UCOP RESEARCH LUNCH SERIES June 10, 12 -1 pm. Sources of greenhouse Gases and Aerosols in Brown Clouds. Ramanathan 2007. Global Atmosphere. Global Atmosphere. Source: Washington, NCAR, 2005. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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V RamanathanTHE UCOP RESEARCH LUNCH SERIES
June 10, 12 -1 pm
From CFC’s to Cook Stoves: How to Stop Global Warming
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Sources of greenhouse Gases and Aerosols in Brown Clouds.Ramanathan 2007
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Global AtmosphereGlobal Atmosphere
Ramanathan 2007
Source: Washington, NCAR, 2005
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Ramanathan, Barkstrom and Harrison, Phys Today, 1989
25 Wm
3
The Greenhouse Blanket
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1980
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Global Temperature Departures from 1961-1990 Mean
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Forcing at 2005
CO2
BC
MASKNet forcing
Heat Trapped by CO2, Non-CO2 gases, Black Carbon and Masking by Sulfates-Nitrates-Organic Aerosols
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1900 1950 2000 2050 2100280
310
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con
cen
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(pp
m)
1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
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/ye
ar)
Even with 50% reductions by 2050, CO2 will Increase to 440 PPM; Commit another 1 C warming
.. Total additional investment needs in technology and deployment between now and 2050 would amount to USD 45 trillion, or 1.1% of average annual global GDP over the period”, IEA, 2008
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1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 20050
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SO2 e
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Global
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 20050
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N.AmericaEuropeFSUS. AmericaEAsiaSEAsia+Aust/NZIndiaMiddle EastAfricaShipping
Data: Smith, PNNL
The Unmasking has begun in full force:
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Abstract. The infrared bands of chlorofluorocarbons and chlorocarbons enhance the atmospheric greenhouse effect. This enhancement may lead to an appreciable increase in the global surface temperature if the atmospheric concentrations of these compounds reach values of the order of 2 parts per billion.
1975
One molecule of CFC has the same greenhouse effect as the addition of more than 10000 molecules of Carbon Dioxide to the Atmosphere
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- carbon-containing particulate matter (PM) - absorbs light- results from inefficient and incomplete combustion- emitted together with CO2, CO, organic particulate matter, SO2
Black Carbon
some 60% of the total BC emissions is amenable to control
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Avenues for limiting global warming to 20C
I.Reduce the rate of thickening of the blanket: CO2 levels to peak below 440ppm…(Grandchildren will benefit)
II.Offset the unmasking with reductions in warming air-pollutants: Black Carbon and Ozone….. (We will benefit)
III: Thin the Blanket: (Children will Benefit)
a. Methane (10 yrs) and HFCs (1 to 10 years)….. b. Develop Scalable technologies to extract BC, Methane and CO2 from the air
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The Copenhagen Accord for Limiting Global Warming:Criteria, Constraints and Available Avenues
Ramanathan and Xu, Submitted to PNAS, 2010
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Project Surya on the Web: www.projectsurya.org
3 Billion can not afford fossil fuel
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Smoke and BC have Major Impacts on Health; Water Security and Food Security
•Greatest advantage for Policy Actions 1. Short Lived in the air ( about a week or less)2. Immediate response to mitigation laws3. Response felt locally by improved air quality4. Will reduce fatalities due to indoor and
outdoor air pollution
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November 14 2006 December 21 2001
Ramanathan 2007
NASA-MODIS
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Nature 2007Spying on Brown Clouds with Drones
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CALIPSO Aerosol Depth:
Ramanathan et al, Nature, 2007
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The working group consists of glaciologists, climate scientists, meteorologists, hydrologists, physicists, chemists, mountaineers, and lawyers organized by the Pontifical Academy of Sciences at the Vatican, to contemplate the observed retreat of the mountain glaciers, its causes and consequences. This report resulted from a workshop in April 2011 at the Vatican.
Ajai, L. Bengtsson, D. Breashears, P.J. Crutzen, S. Fuzzi, W. Haeberli, W.W. Immerzeel, G. Kaser, C. Kennel, A. Kulkarni, R. Pachauri, T. H. Painter, J. Rabassa, V. Ramanathan, A. Robock, C. Rubbia, L. Russell, M. Sánchez Sorondo, H.J. Schellnhuber, S. Sorooshian, T. F. Stocker, L.G. Thompson, O.B. Toon, D. Zaelke
V. RamanathanStockholm U, May 19
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ANIL V. KULKARNIDISTINGUISHED VISITING SCIENTIST
DIVECHA CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGEINDIAN INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE
BANGALORE 560012 INDIA
Glacier Retreat in the Himalaya
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RETREAT OF GLACIERS IN INDIAN HIMALAYA
Parbati (1990-06: SAC)
Sara Umaga (1961-2005: GSI)
Gangotri (1976-1996: GSI)
Dokriani Bamak (2004-2007: WIHG)
Hamta (1961-2005: GSI)
Samudra Tapu (1993-2000: SAC)
Pindari (1966-2007: GSI)
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Guatam et al. (2009)
Is the Monsoon Slowing Down?
Web photo
Dash et al, JGR, 2009
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Simulated Changes due to Smokeless CookingRamanathan and Carmichael, 2008
Column Black Carbon2000 to 2005, as is 2000-2005 Without BC from Cooking
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Major findings from the Pilot Phase of Project Surya
1. Black carbon emissions from biomass andfossil fuels in rural IndiaAtmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 10845–10874, 2011
2. A Cellphone Based System for LargeScale Monitoring of Black CarbonUnder Review in Atmospheric Environment
3. Real-time assessment of Black Carbonpollution in Indian households dueto traditional and improved biomasscookstovesSubmitted to Environmental Science and Technology
National Science Foundation
Qualcomm
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Cell-Phone BasedSoot monitoring SystemNithya Ramanathan et al, 2011UCLA Group
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Figure 2: (upper panels) BC emissions of different cookstoves in breathing and plume zones (left) grouped by stove class, and (right) displayed individually. (lower panels) Fuel use and ratio of mean BC concentration (in plume zone) during cooking to fuel use for different stoves (left) grouped by stove class and (right) displayed individually. In each box-plot, the dark line represents the median value, with the colored box showing the interquartile (25th-75th percentile)range (IQR). The whiskers extendto 1.5xIQR, with outliers denotedby circles. Mean values for each set of measurements are plotted as red triangles. A red star under the box means that the mean value for that stove is statistically different than the mean value for the traditional mud stove (at the 95% confidence level, p<0.05). Data shown are for hardwood fuel tests only.
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Technology: Documenting the Mitigation
Phase 1: 5000 to 10000households
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Surya:Surya:
A SustainableA SustainableBusiness Business Model?Model?
, ABCs
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Bottom to Top of the Pyramid
The four billion people who live on less than $2 per day constitute the bottom of the economic and energy pyramid.
CAN WE STEERTHEM INTO A SUSTAINABLENON-FOSSIL FUEL PATHWAY AND ENABLE THEM TO CLIMB THE ENERGYPYRAMID?